Jim has a timely talk with Samo Burja about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and what it might mean moving forward. They discuss the consequences of a (likely) Russian victory, Russia's bet on new arctic ports & liquid natural gas, a final decoupling of Russia from Europe, the stalemate scenario, Ukraine's dearth of young men, its remarkable job so far at maintaining morale, the likelihood of escalation of mass artillery & casualties, incompatibility between atomized individualism & willingness to resist, rational & less rational reasons why Russia hasn't taken out Ukraine's hospitals, power plants, and internet, a scenario in which Russia settles for Luhansk and Dinetzk, what a true Russian defeat would look like, significance of the Russian advance through Crimea, Samo's main critique of the Ukrainian government, the key fact that Russia has not yet used a third of their forces, the ineffectual negotations in Belarus, the always-looming risk of nuclear escalation & whether the nuclear taboo will hold, an unlikely escalation path via Polish involvement, why a strong German military would be bad for the EU, how a Russian victory would embolden China to invade Taiwan & China's tacit support of the Russian invasion, a bet between Jim & Samo on whether China invades Taiwan within the next 3 years, and much more.