Most of the predictions you encounter every day are closer to the realm of power than the realm of knowledge — and once you see that, you can't unsee it.

Oxford philosopher Carissa Véliz joins Dave to talk about her new book Prophecy: Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI. From the Oracle of Delphi (less a holy shrine than a thriving business) to court astrologers, credit scores, and large language models, Véliz argues that predictions are speech acts — veiled commands that bend reality toward themselves. Whoever owns the prediction machines is making a bid to own the future.

Dave and Carissa dig into the rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi — anonymous wallets funded hours before an attack on Iran, journalists bullied over bets, newsrooms reporting odds as news — plus AI's "monoculture of sameness," why existential-risk panic distracts from AI-enabled authoritarianism, and why refusing to obey in advance starts with refusing the self-fulfilling prophecy. The conversation ends where it must: democracy is never won, only fought for and built every single day.

Carissa Véiz — Associate Professor at Oxford's Faculty of Philosophy and Institute for Ethics in AI; author of Privacy Is Power and Prophecy.

Get the book - https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/239151058-prophecy

TED 2026 talk - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS4wHmKtH-Q

X - @CarissaVeliz

Chapters

00:00 - Cold open & intro

01:30 - Meet Carissa Véliz & the origins of Prophecy

04:37 - Ancient oracles: prediction has always been a business

07:10 - Dread, marketing & why predictions are never facts

09:51 - What makes an honest forecast? Weather vs. people

12:31 - Prediction markets: from PredictIt to Polymarket

15:27 - Insider wallets & the bet on the Iran attack

17:39 - Betting markets meet super PAC politics

20:10 - When newsrooms report bets as news

21:35 - AI as prediction machine: the monoculture of sameness

26:00 - How a digital ethicist actually uses AI

30:50 - Breaking out: serendipity, reading, defying the curve

33:47 - Philosophy as the antidote to prophecy

36:19 - Bayesian priors, agency & refusing to obey in advance

40:44 - Democracy, community & the inconvenient good life

45:17 - From Privacy Is Power to Prophecy

47:49 - Past the event horizon? Against defeatism

51:06 - Reading as an act of defiance

52:33 - Outro & links

Dave Troy Presents is published by America 2.0.

You may not be interested in crypto, but crypto is interested in you.

Cryptocurrency has stopped being a finance story. In 2026 it's a political-money machine - woven into our elections, our regulators, the President's family balance sheet, and the everyday plumbing of how Americans get paid, borrow, and save. You can decide never to buy a single token and still be exposed to the fallout.

To open Season 4, Dave Troy talks with two of the sharpest people on this beat: independent researcher Molly White, who tracks the industry transaction by transaction, and Brookings fellow Tonantzin Carmona, who maps the structural harm - who gets targeted, who gets hurt, and how policy makes it possible.

A plain-English tour of where crypto stands heading into the 2026 and 2028 elections: the collapse of regulatory enforcement; the Trump family's crypto web (World Liberty Financial, the USD1 stablecoin, memecoins, Trump Media); the GENIUS Act that passed and the CLARITY Act the industry wants next; the super PACs that spent $130M in 2024; and the quiet creep of crypto into mortgages, 401(k)s, and checkout pages. Plus wildcat banking, predatory inclusion, the death of Web3, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the Celsius collapse, and the case for treating our financial system as a choice, not an inevitability.

Guests

Molly White - writer and researcher; Citation Needed, Web3 Is Going Just Great, and the election-money tracker Follow the Crypto.

mollywhite.net | followthecrypto.org | web3isgoinggreat.com | citationneeded.news | Bluesky @molly.wiki | X @molly0xff

Tonantzin Carmona - fellow at the Brookings Institution; writes on wealth, inequality, and how crypto is marketed to and harms minority communities ("predatory inclusion"). TEDxMidAtlantic talk forthcoming.

Tonantzin Carmona at Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/people/tonantzin-carmona/

Chapters

00:00 - Cold open & intro

01:44 - Meet Molly White & Tonantzin Carmona

06:42 - Regulatory capture: the SEC's 180

09:09 - The $130M lobby; the GENIUS & CLARITY Acts

11:26 - Money out of politics: the Illinois primary

14:29 - The Trump crypto web - and buying influence

19:48 - Stablecoins explained; dollar dominance

24:08 - Tether, audits, "Amazon bucks" & deposit flight

28:04 - Wildcat banking: financial history in reverse

29:03 - Young men, speculation & predatory inclusion

33:19 - Whatever happened to Web3?

37:52 - The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & "End the Fed"

48:38 - Crypto creeps in: mortgages, 401(k)s, mines

50:50 - The crypto playbook becomes the AI playbook

53:17 - Payments rails: Stripe, Block, "boiling the frog"

56:29 - When it looks like a bank but isn't: Celsius

59:24 - A public alternative: FedNow & Brazil's PIX

01:01:09 - The CBDC question

01:04:27 - What you can actually do

01:08:38 - Outro & links

Dave Troy Presents is published by America 2.0. More at america2.news.

If you've been following world events, you know that Taiwan's future has become a major question, and a fulcrum for the future of democracy. Chris Horton is the author of "Ghost Nation: The Story of Taiwan and Its Struggle for Survival," a new book that offers a unique view into Taiwan's complex history, its precarious present, and its potential futures. "Ghost Nation" is a must read for those interested in the future of democracy, not just in Asia but around the world, and Dave's conversation with Chris is a great introduction to this complex set of topics.

More info: https://chrishortonwriter.com

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Ghost-Nation-Taiwan-Struggle-Survival/dp/1035034026

00:00 Introduction to Taiwan's Complex History

00:52 Meet Chris Horton: Author of Ghost Nation

03:15 The Dutch and Spanish Colonization

07:27 The Ming and Qing Dynasties

17:53 Japanese Rule and Modernization

23:48 The ROC and the 2-28 Incident

48:18 Martial Law in Taiwan: A Dark History

50:00 Democratization and Political Shifts

51:39 Taiwan's Identity and International Relations

01:00:56 Taiwan's Economic Transformation

01:04:10 TSMC: Taiwan's Semiconductor Giant

01:08:37 China's Military Threat and Taiwan's Defense

01:23:34 US-Taiwan Relations and Strategic Ambiguity

01:33:07 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In this episode, we dive into geopolitical tensions, focusing on Russia’s influence on global politics and its ideological underpinnings. David Troy and Jason Pack from the Disorder Podcast discuss Russian nationalism, the continuity of Soviet-era tactics, and the extensive influence of Project Russia. The conversation also delves into the intersections with Western ideologies and strategies to combat disinformation, as well as the peculiar connection between Russian Cosmism and contemporary tech culture.

The Disorder Podcast - https://linktr.ee/disorderpod

00:00 Introduction and Overview

00:51 Conversation with Jason Pack Begins

02:18 Russian Nationalism and Historical Context

03:40 Post-Soviet Russia and the KGB's Influence

10:27 Challenges of Democratization in Russia

18:24 Project Russia: Ideological Framework

26:18 Western Misunderstandings of Russian Motivations

29:10 The Essence of Project Russia

30:06 Bannon's Vision and Russian Interests

30:30 China's Role in the Ukraine War

31:52 Introduction to Russian Cosmism

32:40 The Origins and Ideas of Russian Cosmism

34:32 Cosmism's Influence on Modern Tech

37:51 Libertarian Ideologies and Russian Cosmism

40:51 Trump's Actions and Russian Interests

42:50 Chaos in Tariff Policies

45:56 Strengthening Democracy in the West

52:48 Engaging Global South Democracies

53:49 Conclusion and Future Vision

Journalist and political communications specialist Gil Duran joins Dave for a discussion of The Network State, the latest in a long line of Libertarian Exit ideologies. Based on the ideas of people like Patri Friedman, Balaji Srinavasan, and Curtis Yarvin, the movement ultimately aims to dismantle the American government in favor of a network of federated states, all competing for citizens. The ideology has found a home in the second Trump administration and is gaining momentum quickly. Dave and Gil discuss what it is, where it came from, and how to go about stopping its spread.

Interview starts at 02:47

00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome

00:05 Exploring the Network State Concept

02:47 Mainstream Media's Reluctance

03:40 Historical Context and Silicon Valley's Influence

04:42 Local Politics and Billionaire Influence

05:22 Acceleration of Network State Ideologies

07:54 Freedom Cities and Corporate Dystopias

11:59 Exit vs. Voice: Libertarian Ideals

17:36 Cultish Movements and Apocalyptic Visions

22:48 Autocracy Inc. and Global Implications

33:12 Bitcoin and Right-Wing Politics

34:02 Network State and Democracy

34:29 Media and Political Awareness

35:37 Democrats and Cryptocurrency

43:51 Technocracy and Historical Parallels

51:43 Substack vs. Ghost Platform

55:00 Future Political Landscape

01:02:45 Grassroots Movements and Conclusion

Links:

https://thenerdreich.com

https://x.com/gilduran76

https://theframelab.org

Donald Trump wasn't the first presidential candidate to be groomed by the KGB to advance Russian interests. That dubious honor belongs to Henry A. Wallace, who ran for president in 1948.

Dave interviews Benn Steil, an economist and historian from the Council on Foreign Relations. They discuss his latest book, 'The World That Wasn't, Henry Wallace and the Fate of the American Century.' The conversation explores Wallace's intriguing political and personal life, his contributions as Agriculture Secretary under FDR, his mystical beliefs, and his controversial political career. The discussion includes the impact of Wallace's policies, his interactions with and influence from historical figures like Nicholas Roerich, and his eventual fall from political grace leading up to the 1944 Democratic Convention. The guest also draws parallels between Wallace's complex legacy and contemporary political narratives, including potential influences on modern American politics.

Links:

https://america2.news/donald-trump-isnt-the-first-presidential-candidate-groomed-by-the-kgb/

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/genuine-case-collusion?ref=america2.news

https://www.cfr.org/expert/benn-steil

https://x.com/bennsteil

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/14/nyregion/nyc-911-calls-riverside-drive.html

https://www.roerich.org/

Interview begins at 02:47.

00:00 Introduction and Guest Background

00:20 Henry Wallace: A Counterfactual History

02:27 Henry Wallace's Early Life and Agricultural Innovations

06:39 Wallace's Mystical Pursuits and Political Controversies

12:39 Wallace's Political Ideologies and Economic Views

23:25 Wallace's Vice Presidency and Political Challenges

29:06 Wallace's Diplomatic Missions and Downfall

33:51 Manipulating Visits: The Russian Blueprint

34:30 The DNC's Maneuvering for a New VP

37:47 The 1944 Democratic Convention Chaos

41:02 Wallace's Downfall and Truman's Rise

45:50 Wallace's Post-VP Career and Conflicts

48:43 Wallace's 1948 Presidential Run and Communist Ties

54:40 Parallels Between Wallace and Trump

58:38 The Masonic Dollar Bill Redesign

01:00:49 Conclusion and Future Prospects

Dave interviews Katherine Stewart about her new book 'Money, Lies, and God,' which explores extremist movements in the United States, particularly focusing on the rise of anti-democratic sentiment and Christian nationalism. Katherine shares her background in reporting over the past 16 years and discusses how she began investigating these movements after a 'Good News Club' appeared at her daughter's school. She categorizes the key players in these movements into 'funders,' 'thinkers,' and 'foot soldiers' and discusses how their interactions threaten the foundations of American democracy. The interview also touches on the disinformation campaigns, the international dimension of these extremist networks, and the importance of engaging in local politics and voting to sustain democracy.

00:00 Introduction and Book Overview

00:19 Katherine's Background and Initial Interest

00:38 The Good News Club and Its Impact

02:57 Researching the Legal Advocacy Groups

04:03 The Larger Agenda and War on Public Education

04:59 Categorizing the Networks: Funders, Thinkers, and Foot Soldiers

07:45 Christian Nationalism and Its Political Machine

12:51 The Role of Spirit Warriors and Spiritual Warfare

16:56 Influence of Thinkers: Leo Strauss and Carl Schmitt

22:02 The Concept of a Red Caesar

31:24 Global Reactionary Movements and Religious Nationalism

37:38 The Role of Funders and Money in Politics

42:19 Pro-Democracy Initiatives and Individual Actions

46:38 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Dave interviews Dina Khapaeva, Russian culture expert at Georgia Tech, about the book "Third Empire: Russia as it ought to be," written by Mikhail Yuriev, one of the authors of Project Russia, which we have also covered in the last two episodes.

Dina specializes in Russian historical memory and contemporary issues. She provides an in-depth background on her research and her personal history, including her family's experience with Stalinist terror. The discussion focuses on the troubling, far-right ideologies that have been shaping Russia's political strategy, particularly explored through the lens of Mikhail Yuryev's novel 'Third Empire, The Russia That Ought To Be' and the Project Russia texts. Dr. Penkrmanova explains how these narratives, rooted in neo-Eurasianist ideology and medieval Russian history, inform Putin's geopolitics and expansionist aims. The conversation also touches on the implications of these ideologies for Western policymakers and the political landscape, emphasizing the urgent need to recognize and respond to these Russian ambitions.

The Utopian Russian Novel that Predicted Putin's War Plan, March 26, 2022

The West Doesn't Realize How Much Danger It's In, August 24, 2022

Putin's Dark Ages, 2023

Dina Khapaeva website

00:00 Introduction and Guest Background

00:17 Early Career and Shift to Sociology

01:00 Focus on Historical Memory

02:24 Current Role at Georgia Tech

02:59 Discussion on Mikhail Yuryev's Book

03:49 Yuryev's Influence and Political Connections

07:05 Fortress Russia and Far-Right Ideology

10:18 Neo-Eurasianism and Western Perception

19:57 Summary of 'Third Empire' Plot

23:07 Implications of Yuryev's Vision

32:04 The Devastation of War: Casualties and Destruction

32:58 Russian Ideology: Antichrist and Apocalypse

33:42 Western Perception and Putin's Strategy

34:34 The Primakov Doctrine and Nuclear Threats

38:14 Yuriev's Vision: A New Social Order

45:58 The Role of Memory Politics in Russia

51:49 Yuriev's Influence in the United States

57:21 The Patriarchal Society and Gender Issues

01:00:41 The Urgency of Recognizing the Russian Threat

01:03:10 Conclusion: The Future of Russia and Global Implications

Dave interviews noted British journalist and documentarian Lucy Ash about her new book, The Baton and the Cross: Russia's Church from Pagans to Putin.

They discuss intricate relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church and the modern Russian state. The interview explores the history of Orthodoxy in Russia, tracing its origins from medieval times through periods of upheaval, including the Bolshevik Revolution and the Stalinist era. Lucy discusses the personal connections that inspired her to write the book, her early perceptions of the church's potential for good, and how current events are influenced by historical precedents. The conversation examines key figures such as Patriarch Kirill and President Vladimir Putin, highlighting how orthodoxy has been used to underpin Russian nationalism and policy. The dialogue also touches on the broader social impacts of this relationship, including attitudes towards LGBTQ+ issues and women's rights. The interview concludes with reflections on Putin's personal religiosity and his regime's strategic use of the church to consolidate power.

The Baton and the Cross

Lucy Ash on X

Lucy Ash Website

00:00 Introduction and Personal Connection to Russia

03:55 Historical Background of the Orthodox Church in Russia

08:27 Ivan the Terrible and the Oprichniki

11:40 Peter the Great and Catherine the Great's Influence

29:13 The Bolshevik Revolution and Its Impact on the Church

40:54 Smuggling Bibles into Eastern Europe

42:33 Religion and State in Russia

44:06 Russian Mysticism and Superstition

46:09 Orthodoxy and Russian Identity

47:44 LGBTQ Issues and Russian Orthodoxy

50:49 Pussy Riot and Church-State Relations

53:03 Domestic Violence and the Church

57:01 Putin's Spirituality and the Church

01:00:45 The Military Cathedral

01:06:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

You've heard of Project 2025, but there's another framework that may be even more important for understanding the current assault on Western democracies. "Project Russia" is a series of books published between 2005 and 2010, and it outlines a strategic vision for total war on the West, against democracies, and against the US dollar and other fiat currencies.

Nearly unknown to Western analysts, the concepts described in Project Russia increasingly reflect the events we see playing out on a daily basis: a war over competing worldviews with capture of media, the use of podcasts and other alternative media to challenge the mainstream press, and the emergence of a new class of unelected 'elite' demagogues who seem to be taking control of global affairs. This episode analyzes the four original Project Russia books with the help of Google's NotebookLM, and offers 'deep dives' into specific areas of the texts.

More on Project Russia from Dave Troy:

https://washingtonspectator.org/project-russia-reveals-putins-playbook/

Keywords: Project Russia, conservatism, nationalism, religion, Orthodoxy, geopolitics, ideology, Antichrist, apocalypse, conspiracy, collapse, future, prediction, The Idea, world order, West, elites, manipulation, control, change, modernity, post-modernity, capitalism, consumerism, society, state, power, authority, history, monarchy.