Deep Dive with Shawn C. Fettig

If some of the last 2024 presidential election polls were pointing to a decisive Kamala Harris win, then why did it become clear so early in the evening that Harris would, in fact, lose? Were the polls wrong...again? In this episode, Dr. W. Joseph Campbell discusses how polls work, the history of polling errors, and why it matters. He also takes on Selzer's Iowa poll that showed Kamala Harris's unexpected surge in Iowa days before the election, only for Donald Trump to secure a decisive win, echoing the shockwaves of 2016. We dissect the historical miscalculations that have shaped voter trust and question whether inherent biases, flawed methodologies, or media narratives are distorting the truth.

Harry Truman's stunning 1948 victory and the unexpected triumph of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016 are some examples of polling error that we discuss. These moments show how fragile the balance is between the pursuit of precision in polling and the pillars of free speech. We talk about how these errors have an impact on voter engagement and democratic processes, and how challenging it is to read and engage with potentially faulty polls in an entrenched electoral culture.

Finally, we discuss the reasons why Trump's support has historically been underestimated and the implications for media narratives in shaping electoral momentum. Polling is an art and a science. It's not going away, so we should temper our expectations.

Recommended:
Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections
Better But Not Stellar
Polls Were Largely Accurate in Anticipating Trump-Harris Race

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Could the American system of checks and balances crumble under a second Trump presidency? In this episode Berkeley Law Professor Daniel Farber, co-director of the Edley Center on Law and Democracy, joins the pod to discuss the complexities of executive authority in the U.S. government. From emergency powers initially crafted for crisis management to the potential overreach encouraged by figures such as Mitch McConnell and Mike Johnson, we explore how these dynamics could fundamentally alter the balance of power established by the Constitution. 

We examine the constitutional framework intended to keep presidential power in check, focusing on the evolving roles of Congress and the judiciary. And, we focus on how party loyalty often clashes with institutional accountability, and how mechanisms like congressional funding and public opinion serve as crucial, yet sometimes faltering, counterbalances to executive overreach. Through critical historical examples and current events, we examine the pressing need for strengthening these checks and balances to prevent authoritarian tendencies.

In this episode, we also scrutinize the strategies presidents might employ to extend their influence through appointments and executive orders, challenging the Senate's advisory role. The ease with which democratic norms can be undermined by unchecked presidential actions raises significant concerns about the erosion of civil rights and the potential rise of authoritarianism. And, how the system might respond, and even fail, under the pressures of a President Trump determined to consolidate power. 

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Trump has won. He has plans.

Dr. Maria Cristina Garcia joins me for a deep dive into the intricacies of immigration policy and its far-reaching effects on American society. We discuss the disinformation clouding public perception and policy debates. Staring down a second Trump presidency, we reflect on historical mass deportations and the dire economic and social consequences that could follow.

We discuss forced migration, driven by authoritarian regimes and climate change, with a focus on regions like Central America and small island states. These global challenges are not just far-off events—they have direct implications for American democracy and the political landscape. And we highlight the urgency for humane, effective immigration reforms, emphasizing the pivotal role of leadership in shaping public perception and policy. The evolving dynamics of Hispanic voter support for Trump is a particular point of interest, offering insights into shifting political alliances.

In the broader context of democratic backsliding and the rise of authoritarianism, this episode emphasizes the necessity for international cooperation to tackle pressing global issues like migration and climate change. Wealthier nations need to set a precedent in policy evolution, addressing new challenges such as climate displacement and gender-based violence.

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What if state legislatures could override the popular vote, revolutionizing the American electoral system? What if Donald Trump contests each state election in bad faith? What if Trump demands Congress refuse to certify an election he lost? What if Trump wins and summons mobs into the streets as a show of force? And, how does the American electoral system allow for, even sometimes promote, this type of chaos? In this episode, Dr. Norman Williams, a distinguished law professor at Willamette University and expert on US election law, stops by to discuss the intricacies and vulnerabilities of the Electoral College, as well as other election laws and processes. We examine America's electoral mechanics and uncover why, despite its flaws, this system persists over a straightforward nationwide popular vote. Dr. Williams put the historical "misfires" of the Electoral College into some context, examining past elections where candidates secured the presidency without the popular vote, highlighting the significant political shifts these outcomes create.

We also explore the potential for transformative reform, focusing on initiatives like the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which seeks to align the Electoral College with the popular will. And, we consider alternative reforms and the challenges of overcoming entrenched political interests that favor the status quo. With state voting systems and election laws intricately linked to partisanship and race, we discuss how these elements shape electoral dynamics, emphasizing the Supreme Court's complex role in distinguishing between race-based and partisan-based laws.

Finally, we talk about the empowering act of voting and civic engagement. Understanding the weight of each vote becomes crucial in the face of restrictive election laws and voter purges. Highlighting the independent state legislature doctrine's potential impact, Dr. Williams and I reflect on its implications for federal elections and the enduring principles of democracy. Vote like democracy depends on it. 

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Could America’s political polarization be paving the way for a return to a multipolar world? Dr. Charles Kupchan, Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, joins us to explore this provocative question. With the possibility of Trump reelection looming, we discuss the repercussions of an isolationist America retreating from its leadership role on the global stage. Dr. Kupchan explains the historical context of America's foreign policy, drawing fascinating parallels with the early reluctance to form alliances and the modern-day 'America First' stance.

As the United States grapples with a diminished ability to single-handedly dictate global outcomes, we consider the necessity of partnering with both democratic and non-democratic nations. How does this shift alter the global balance of power, and can new alliances successfully tackle pressing issues like climate change and nuclear proliferation? Through the lens of Dr. Kupchan's experience, we discuss the complexities of a world where no single nation dominates, and consider whether this transition might not be as destabilizing as it seems.

Our converation also tackles the dual threats of political dysfunction and socioeconomic changes reshaping Western democracies. With liberal populism on the rise and traditional influences waning, this episode offers a piercing examination of the precarious international landscape. We reflect on the fate of countries like Ukraine and Israel amidst these shifting dynamics, while contemplating the future of American foreign policy and the potential for a renewed national dialogue. 

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Dr. Sara Chatfield, a leading voice in gender politics from the University of Denver, and author of the book In Her Own Name: The Politics of Women's Rights Before Suffrage, joins Deep Dive to unpack the persistent gender gap in American politics—a divide that traces its roots back to the 1980s. We explore how shifts in male conservatism and Trumpism's focus on traditional masculinity have potentially steered more women toward the Democratic Party. As we look ahead to the 2024 election, this discussion reveals the intricate weave of political rhetoric, societal change, and how these elements continue to shape voter alignment in a rapidly evolving landscape.

In an election where reproductive rights are at the forefront of political discourse, we examine the Dobbs decision's fallout and its ripple effects on public opinion. The debate around abortion and reproductive health transcends identity politics, challenging preconceived notions and highlighting the fundamental nature of these issues. We also discuss JD Vance's stance on gender relations and the historical role of white women in reactionary politics, offering a nuanced perspective on how these dynamics play out in today's political arena.

From the resurgence of trans-exclusionary bathroom bills to the strategic maneuvers in Congress and the courts, we consider the effects of backlash and progress. While some areas of social policy are regressing, others are pushing forward, and these shifts have profound implications for the future. 

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In this episode, we question the future of American leadership and its crucial role in maintaining the liberal world order. Could a second Donald Trump presidency shift the balance of power, allowing authoritarian regimes like China and Russia to gain prominence? Professor Edward Goldberg - expert on globalization, and author of the book The United States as Global Liberal Hegemon: How the US Came to Lead the World - joins Deep Dive to consider these pressing questions, offering keen insights into the historical and contemporary factors shaping the U.S.'s position as a global leader.

Professor Goldberg argues that the United States is the global liberal hegemon, a stabilizing force since the aftermath of the World Wars and, furthermore, that the world needs the United States to remain in that role. We discuss the U.S.'s unique advantages—secure borders, natural resources, and strategic alliances—that have cemented its leadership in fostering global cooperation and democracy. With a thoughtful examination of international institutions like the UN and NATO, we assess the strengths and limitations of these organizations in managing conflicts amidst the rise of power rivalries. 

As polarization in the United States deepens, Trumpism takes hold, and isolationism becomes a real possibility in a second Trump presidency, the potential repercussions of a significant pivot in U.S. foreign policy are all too real. We explore the possible consequences of a diminished American role, contemplating the risk of increased global instability and authoritarian aggression. Reflecting on past and present geopolitical landscapes, we emphasize the importance of sustained U.S. influence in mediating conflicts and reinforcing democratic norms. With this pivotal election approaching, the stakes for global stability are higher than ever, and Professor Goldberg's insights offer a critical perspective on the future of American global leadership.

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What if the family values we've been taught to cherish are nothing more than myths and, in fact, are dangerous? In this episode, historian and author of the book The Way We Never Were, Stephanie Coontz, helps us to understand the New Testament's radical interpretation of family,  offering enlightening insights—and challenges the nostalgic allure of "traditional family values" often exploited in contemporary political discourse. We unmask the nostalgic fantasies fueling certain ideologies and question which eras are truly being glorified, exposing the social injustices that these idealized visions conveniently overlook.

We discuss how skewed narratives around gender roles have been manipulated throughout history to justify inequality, examining early societies, where shared responsibilities and egalitarian structures were the norm, contrasting them with the myths used to hinder marginalized communities today. And, we address head-on the danger posed by the MAGA movement, utilizing false nostalgic political rhetoric to lull us into a sense of longing for a bygone era that never existed, and its potential impact on reproductive rights, women's liberty, the trans community, and race policy. There are repercussions to weaponizing "traditional values" in today's debates - and on the future of American democracy.

Nostalgia isn't just a longing for the past—it's a tool that can be, is being, wielded by the Republican Party to maintain power and divert attention from current issues. In the episode, we explore the consequences of romanticizing a “simpler time,” particularly for women and the queer community, while highlighting the regressive agendas at play - the societal norms under threat, the democratic backsliding we face, and the paths forward to foster diverse and inclusive family structures. Stephanie's upcoming book, For Better and Worse, aims to further enlighten listeners about these pressing issues.

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What if the very tools meant to inform and unify us are actually tearing our democracy apart? In this episode, we explore how gossip, rumor, and disinformation are used as tools in American politics, especially in the Trump era, to distort truth and threaten democracy. I chat with historian Dr. Christopher Elias, author of Gossip Men: J. Edgar Hoover, Joe McCarthy, Roy Cohn, and the Politicss of Insinuation, to unravel the intricate and often nefarious role of gossip, rumor, and misinformation in American politics. Discover how political figures like Donald Trump, J. Edgar Hoover, Joe McCarthy, and Roy Cohn have weaponized these tactics to manipulate public opinion, sidestep substantial policy debates, and undermine trust in our institutions.

We discuss the role of bad information in American politics from Alexander Hamilton to the present day with figures like Donald Trump and JD VAnce, and revealing how advances in media technology have transformed political gossip into a powerful tool for shaping narratives. We consider the ethical implications of these tactics and the enduring impact of figures like Trump, JD Vance, and the Republican Party who have brought them to unprecedented levels, reshaping U.S. politics and public discourse. Learn about the nuanced differences between gossip, rumor, and insinuation, and how each serves its purpose in this strategic manipulation. 

As we explore the broader implications for democracy, underscoring the critical need for truth and communal trust in safeguarding our democratic processes. Finally, we touch on the evolving history of masculinity in American politics, the widening gender gap in American politics, providing insight into how these elements intersect and impact our political landscape. 

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Deep Dive returns! In this episode we bring back a number of contributors to our recently concluded limited series - After America - and ask if they have hope for American democracy, or if we already past the Rubicon. Can American democracy survive the storm of voter disenfranchisement, misinformation, and rising authoritarianism? This episode promises not just a look at the challenges, but also a glimmer of hope for our democratic future.

We explore the perennial struggle to uphold the ideals of equality and the essential role of our political institutions. And, you'll hear insights into how the Republican Party's transformation and Donald Trump's influence pose unique threats to American democracy. Yet, amid these daunting challenges, we find reasons for cautious optimism in the resilience of U.S. institutions and the enduring power of foundational principles like equality and justice.

What would another Trump presidency mean for the United States? Through poignant personal stories and global perspectives, we highlight the immediate and structural dangers we face. This episode isn't just a wake-up call; it’s a call to arms to protect the future of American democracy.

Featuring: Dr. Carol Graham, Dr. Kate Starbird, Dr. Edward Watts, Dr. Alice Marwick, Dr. Tara Grove, Dr. James Robinson, Dr. Sara Benesh, Dr. Benjamin Hett, Dr. Sheri Berman, Dr. Bernard Schlager, Jason van Tatenhove, Dr. Balint Magyar, Stephen Marche

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