With Trump due to be inaugurated in less than 15 days, it is high time to come to grips with his foreign policy vision as it can be gleaned from his cabinet appointments. The incoming cabinet appears isolationist, transactional, and lacking a coherent view of what an American-led global system should look like.  

This begs the questions: Could Trump 2.0 symbolise a shift in the Republican foreign policy establishment away from the neoconservatism which has dominated it for four decades and towards a novel and novel approach to American foreign policy? Is this new approach filled with internal contradictions? And what do these countervailing wings of Trumpism mean for Trump 2.0 Administration’s approach to American adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran? 

To investigate, Jason is joined by Dr Alan Mendoza, founder and Executive Director of The Henry Jackson Society -- a Westminster think tank known for proposing bold and neo-conservative solutions to the crises facing Britain and the world. 

The duo begin by reflecting on the historical significance of figures like Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson(D-WA) and the historical inversions represented by Trump's isolationist and transactional approach to global order. Then: Alan and Jason embark on an around the world tour investigating the current structural weaknesses of Russia under Putin, the fragility of dictatorships in general, the growing threat posed by China, strategies for confronting it, and the importance of deterrence in global politics. 

After the ad break Alan and Jason look at: Britain's historical and current role in the Middle East, asking, could Britain compensate for Trumpian aloofness by seeking to reassert a leadership in the MENA region? They explore the influence of Iran as a destabilizing force, the situation in Gaza, the challenges posed by Hamas, and the need for an activist and bold British foreign policy to draw on Britain’s unique strengths and secure her interests. 

As the Order the Disorder, Alan proposes that Britain should invest more in cultivating hard power, while Jason stresses the need for upping Britain’s capacity in the sanctions space. Finally, if he were King for a day, Alan would established a new international institution just for functioning democracies – that could work adjacent to the UN – and act as a coordinating forum for the world’s ordering powers. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

In this week’s substack we will have extra audio content about Hamas disinformation about Gazan civilian casualties during the Israel-Hamas war 

Show Notes Links 

Watch/read interview with Alan about Putin: https://www.the-sun.com/news/13187114/putin-rule-power-russia-mafia/amp/  

Read Restoring Deterrence: Destabilising the Iranian Regime by the Henry Jackson Society https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/restoring-deterrence-destabilising-the-iranian-regime/  

Read Timothy Snyder on Trump, Russia and Ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jan/01/timothy-snyder-trump-musk-russia-ukraine-putin  

Listen to our episode on Canada’s role in the world: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/601e6a1721995fa854010c309c11ab24  

Listen to our episode on China’s economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f  

Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e  

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From the Trump election win to the ongoing conflicts across the Middle East, Sudan and Ukraine… 2024 was certainly a year full of Disorder. But what about 2025? Is there any realistic hope that it could be more orderly? Well maybe there is! And maybe the time has come to take more seriously the *potential* advantages of certain Trump policy proposals. (or maybe not? hahahah) 

In this episode, we continue our spotlight on Hebrew music as it is still Hannukah and the tune we start out with asks the question ‘What will happen in the new year? We have to wait and see’. Jason is joined by fan favourite Jane Kinninmont to discuss the past year: reflecting on the myriad challenges faced by Orderers. They dissect the most Disordering events of 2024 as well as providing some hypotheticals like the various dogs that didn’t bark: the assassination attempt against Trump leading to an American civil war or a hot war between Israel and Iran emerging due to a miscalculation. 

Plus: what is the background of Susan Wiles, who is she, what stock does she come from, and what is her likely role in the incoming Trump government (could she be a power behind the throne and a real orderer)? We also discuss the centrality of the immigration issue to the global neo-populist movement. 

Meanwhile, Jason wonders: has the center-left got it all wrong? Have we been too biased on the pod in 2024 in cheerleading for Starmer and American centrists? This chain of thought culminates in some musings on Angela Merkel’s leadership, and her missteps, and the influence of conspiracy theories in popular culture. The show ends predictability by our discussing how each of us can help to order the disorder in 2025, emphasizing the importance of civic engagement and individual empowerment to help drive positive policies. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

For more about our Glaswegian Fan Favourite Jane Kinninmont: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/jane-kinninmont/  

And her recent fascinating article in The Times of India ‘Ayatollah after Assad’: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/ayatollah-after-assad/  

Alex has written this great overview article about the situation in Georgia from her recent trip:  https://bylinetimes.com/2024/12/17/the-west-will-regret-abandoning-the-georgian-people-to-the-clutches-of-russia/ 

If you like the way the Disorder Pod sounds check out ‘Can a steel town survive if its furnaces are turned off? – podcast’  where the reporting and the audio production are done by our producer George McDonagh: https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/dec/19/can-a-steel-town-survive-if-its-furnaces-are-turned-off-podcast  

For more of Yoav Oved’s music visit his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/YoavSings/?locale=en_GB  

Or instagram https://www.instagram.com/yoavsings/?__d=1  

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As 2024 draws to a close, Jason and Alex celebrate Chrismukkah (when Christmas and Hanukkah fall on the same date, which is actually a rarer occurrence than you might imagine). They feature some cantorial Hebrew music in the intro and some choral Christmas jingles in the outro. They share their families’ Christmas traditions, exploring the differences between American and British celebrations. They also explore the make believe of the contrasting Christmas celebrations of their alter egos, Xela Llah Llah and Nosaj Kcap. 

Plus:  Alex’s recent trip to Georgia, highlighting the protests against the Georgian Dream government’s cancellation of EU membership, and how the West should respond. Also: the plight of the Kurds in Northeastern Syria, the need for a jamboree international conference of aid and capacity building support for Syria, the importance of proactive Western leadership on issues like Georgia and Syria and the potential profound consequences of inaction.  

And as they Order the Disorder, they express hope for positive change amidst global disorder. For Xmas Jason wishes for ‘Two NATOs on climate change, one NATO on tax havens, and a partridge in a pear tree,’ while Alex wishes for ‘the EU to come up with a way to bypass Hungary and Slovakia and put sanctions on Georgia before the end of the year.’ 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Read more about the plight of the Kurds of Northeastern Syria- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/middleeast/kurdish-forces-syria-turkey-isis-america.html 

Alex has written this great overview article about the situation in Georgia from her recent trip:  https://bylinetimes.com/2024/12/17/the-west-will-regret-abandoning-the-georgian-people-to-the-clutches-of-russia/ 

And Arthur Snell has interviewed one of the leading experts on HTS and the Syrian anti-Assad jihadi landscapes: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/inside-hts-what-does-al-jolani-want-and-how-will-they-rule/id1704344656?i=1000680598620 

If you like the way the Disorder Pod sounds check out ‘Can a steel town survive if its furnaces are turned off? – podcast’  where the reporting and the audio production are done by our producer George McDonagh: https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/dec/19/can-a-steel-town-survive-if-its-furnaces-are-turned-off-podcast  

For more on Evoke visit https://www.evokemusic.org/  

For more of Yoav Oved visit his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/YoavSings/?locale=en_GB  

Or Instagram https://www.instagram.com/yoavsings/?__d=1  

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From its important but underrecognized role in the World Wars of the 20th century to its key advocacy for the UN system, humanitarian aid, peacekeeping, and international treaties, Canada has been a major player in the global ordering sweepstakes.  

So what does Canada do when the world’s largest trading relationship (Canada’s with the United States) no longer necessarily connects it to a trustworthy nation? Can Canada step up and present itself as an independent leader of the free world and a ‘coordinator-in-chief’ for other Ordering nations? Will hosting the G7 give Canada some stealth mega ordering mojo? 

To discuss that and more, Jason is joined by Marci Surkes, Surkes served as Executive Director of Policy and Cabinet Affairs in the office of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This turned out to be a very timely conversation as Canadian PM Justin Trudeau visited President-Elect Trump in Mar-a-Lago in late November and noted that Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs would decimate the Canadian economy. In response Trump suggested that Canada was ‘ripping off America’ to the tune of a 100 billion USD a year and that if Canada wanted tariff free trade it could become the 51st state. This sparked many viral memes. 

Amidst this bizarre and yet terrifying backdrop, Jason and Marci explore the upcoming 2025 Canadian election, which may actually play out as a referendum on Trudeau’s handling of the Trump presidency. They also discuss leadership challenges to Trudeau within the Liberal Party and the fraught relationship between Canada and India and the pivotal role Canada could play in Global Ordering as it takes on the presidency of the G7 in 2025.  

Plus: could there be a budding bromance between Starmer and Trudeau? And as Marci and Jason Order the Disorder, they explore the need for more gender equality across politics and why medium powers like Canada can play a pivotal role on issues like security guarantees and NATO. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to an explainer on why Canadian politics has ground to a halt: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/stalemate-why-the-house-of-commons-has-ground-to-a-halt/id1621425319?i=1000677888744 

Listen to Marci’s appearance on a panel discussing what Trump means for Canada: https://paulwells.substack.com/p/the-panel-what-trump-means-for-canada?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=804175&post_id=151283084&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ruvru&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email 

Listen to our Ben Ansell episode about other elections: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/50e9a35e0737bb9d0ddf29460a199c37  

Read profile of Melanie Joly: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/world/canada/melanie-joly-foreign-affairs-profile.html  

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Assad has fallen! The Tyrant is no more! Long live the revolution! 

There has been a genuine outpouring of jubilation among Syrians at home and abroad - even the ones working at the Syrian embassy in Moscow who ‘chose’ to fly the rebel flag. But the international responses are messier - regional players talk of maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity, while several countries welcome the new order with bombing raids (especially Turkey and Israel who are now operating inside Syria to weaken their enemies and occupy buffer zones). Meanwhile, even as Europeans ask whether jihadis will dominate the new Syria, the same European governments (notably Austria) are simultaneously drawing up plans to deport the Syrian refugees seeking asylum in their country -- because it must be safe now, right? 

In this bonus episode examining the Post-Assad Syria: From Euphoria to Uncertainty, Jason is joined by our returning Glaswegian champion, Jane Kinninmont. She is just back from an international conference in Doha where she sat one row behind Russia’s FM Sergei Lavrov. 

Jane and Jason tell stories from their times in Syria… about sweets and about being spied on. They break down all things Syria. Trying to draw lessons from a disorderly past to an orderly future. 

We examine: did Russia and Iran throw Assad under a bus? Several things changed in the regional calculus but - primarily they realized the game was up for Assad domestically. To save him they would have needed to commit major forces, and at a time when Israel might well have willing to join the fight to make sure that Iran lost - at least if Iran sent troops. And while those were clearly the major calculations, the “benefits” part of the Russo-Iranian cost-benefit analysis of propping up Assad had also dwindled.   Iran wasn’t actually getting so many benefits from Assad -- who spent most of the year trying to stay out of the regional war, avoid confronting Israel and pursue normalisation with Arab states.  

The episode ends with Jane and Jason Ordering the Disorder by concluding that the West and the Middle East alike were caught horribly unprepared. Still wounded by the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan, Western countries may shy away from lending serious capacity building assistance to a democratic Syrian led transition process - but fatalism is the wrong approach - the transition is more likely to be more peaceful and more successful if more political and economic resources are invested in it - especially by democratic countries willing to use carrots and sticks.  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

The David Runciman Pod that Jane mentions explaining linear vs cyclical and non-linear conceptions of history: https://www.ppfideas.com/episodes/the-history-of-bad-ideas%3A-the-end-of-history 

Jason’s appearance on Monocle’s The Globalist talking more about the Alawites: https://monocle.com/radio/shows/the-globalist/3495/play/  

A great Special Briefing from my former colleagues at MEI about what’s next in Syria: https://www.mei.edu/blog/special-briefing-after-assads-fall-whats-next-syria-and-region 

Israel, Seeing an Opportunity, Demolishes Syria’s Military Assets: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/world/middleeast/israel-strikes-syria.html 

A visual timeline of the events: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/world/middleeast/syria-civil-war-rebels-timeline-assad.html  

While international support is crucial, Syrians must lead their country’s political transition: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/12/while-international-support-crucial-syrians-must-lead-their-countrys-political-transition   

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This week was par for the course… We are living through Peak Disorder. Two democratic capital cities were convulsed by demonstrations trying to oust their governments. One Middle Eastern regime collapsed, while a neighboring war was paused.  

We at the Disorder pod believe that events like the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire, the fall of Syria to the rebels, the street protests in Georgia in response to claims the election was rigged, the protests in South Korea opposing attempts to impose martial law, the battleground issues of the Irish elections, the spontaneous collapse of the French government, and the pardoning of Hunter Biden are all interrelated. We are most certainly living through the Global Enduring Disorder. In this historic era, events in one part of the world ping pong around and interact in unforeseen ways with events elsewhere, without sufficiently coordinated responses from potential Ordering powers. 

On today’s episode, we’re joined today by friend of the pod, fellow Georgia enthusiast, and former British Diplomat Arthur Snell. Arthur has recently hosted excellent pods on events in Syria and Georgia on his Behind the Lines podcast. (Links below) We recorded most of the episode after the Fall of Aleppo but before the fall of the Assad regime in total. Therefore, we will be having a bonus episode with Jane Kinninmont on Thursday delving into that in specific. 

In this ep, Arthur and Jason survey all of these topics, explaining that because of the fundamental principles of our era of Global Enduring Disorder, previously stable looking places like South Korea, are becoming Disorderly. They discuss how memes and themes that are playing out in the UK and US are also rehashed in Ireland. They finish the show by trying to Order the Disorder – contrasting developments in South Korea with those in Georgia, concluding that state capacity and cultural solidarity is more vital now than ever. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to Arthur’s podcast episode about Georgia: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/a654b790f75542d26710235d05c378d7  

And his episode on The Fall of Aleppo: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/08772c26e60e40496a2a235b491f561b  

For deeper background to the Syrian Rebel’s offensive: https://www.syriaintransition.com/aleppoherewecome  

And how events in South Korea are connected to developments in Trump world: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/12/south-korea-martial-law/680864/  

And the Irish elections:  

https://www.breakingnews.ie/general-election-2024/hutchs-dail-bid-ends-with-him-running-away-from-pandemonium-at-count-centre-1702711.html  

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Do elections work anymore? 2024 was the biggest year of elections in human history. Major contests were held in the UK, US, EU, France, India, Japan, Moldova, Georgia, and elsewhere. Did these elections work? Were they free and fair? Did their outcomes actually represent the authentic will of the people? Is genuine electoral democracy with its checks and balances even possible in the mid-21st century?  

Today’s guest on Disorder, Ben Ansell holds the contrarian view that democracy is actually alive and well. He asserts that even if we are not happy with recent outcomes, we should still trust the process.  

Ben Ansell is Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at the University of Oxford and Nuffield College. He was the 2023 BBC Reith Lecturer and the presenter of ‘What's Wrong With Democracy?’ by Tortoise Media and ‘Rethink’ on BBC Radio 4. His most recent book is ‘Why Politics Fails’ and he writes the Substack 'Political Calculus’.  

In the episode, Jason and Ben embark on an around-the-world tour to survey this epic year of elections and analyse the state of democracy globally. They look at the key features that have defined this cycle, especially anti-incumbency sentiments.  

QUOTE OF THE SHOW ‘This is the only year, 2024, where in every single MAJOR WESTERN country, the incumbents lost votes. They didn't always lose office, but they often did, because when you're losing 5 or 10 % of votes in competitive systems, you're a goner. First off… it looks, if you look at John's FT graph [in the shownotes], things have just got more volatile over the last decade or so anyway. And so that might be just a change among voters, that voters have become more like consumers. I mean, we are all consumers [in our mind sets]. And in most of the countries that have elections in capitalist markets, we [are used to] switching goods all the time. And I suppose there's reason to believe that [moving forward] we might switch parties all the time.’ 

Jason and Ben delve deeper into the unique case of Georgia, where incumbents have managed to increase their majority despite global trends. The duo also cover the outcomes of the European elections, the implications of criminality as a feature rather than a bug of global neopopulism, and the roles of Russian and Chinese influence operations in election results across the world. The episode concludes with Ben – an optimistic mega-orderer by temperament and intellectual conviction – genuinely Ordering the Disorder by saying that Trump can, and will, be contained and that the institutions of American democracy can actually withstand another Trump term. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

FT anti-incumbency graph/article: https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893  

Why Politics Fails https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/444113/why-politics-fails-by-ansell-ben/9780241992753  

Rethink: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08gt1ry  

What's Wrong With Democracy?: https://www.tortoisemedia.com/listen/whats-wrong-with-democracy/  

Ben’s Substack: https://benansell.substack.com  

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Amidst post-election malaise and seasonal depression, Jason is thankful for the Mega-Ordering listeners who sent in their questions to his new address in a bunker underneath the hills of Hampstead (you can reach it by writing to him @ [email protected]). Esther asked ‘To what extent did the Dems actually pander to the woke agenda? Or is that just made up and trumped up by the Republicans since it helps them win points’; Annabelle in Atlanta, Georgia asks ‘Could Taylor Swift solve all the disorder?’ while Kerry in the Republic of Georgia asks ‘despite being from rural Vermont, I now feel these days like I barely know America. I do not understand Trump voters. How do we bridge this divide on a practical level?’ 

Jumping off from these prompts Alex and Jason cover myriad topics including: the potential for conflict between China and Taiwan, whether JD Vance could become President before 2028, the ways we can incorporate the lessons of behavioral economics into political decision-making, and the role of the transgender issue in the recent election campaign. Plus: the challenges for liberal elites in truly understanding Trump voters, if Taylor Swift and other celebrities actually helped or hurt the Dems, and why even in these dark days, we can remain optimistic about the potential success of a collective effort to preserve democracy. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Learn more about the history of Thanksgiving: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Thanksgiving-Day  

And the Origins of Turkey: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/why-americans-call-turkey-turkey/383225/  

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We have crossed through the looking glass – Up is Down, Disorder is Order, Vice is Virtue, Felony is a Positive, and Rape Convictions are a reason to get a cabinet position. With Trump unsurprisingly appointing disruptors to his administration, Global Disorder beckons. How did we get here? Seemingly because Biden wasn’t bold enough in trying to assert order. Is Starmer making the same mistake? 

In this episode, Jason and Alex discuss what will happen to the ongoing legal cases against Trump, the forthcoming Trump administration’s attempts to disorder and dismantle American institutions and checks and balances, and the likely evolution of the Supreme Court. After a lengthy discussion of the initial proposal of Matt Gaetz’s as Attorney General and his subsequent withdrawal, Alex introduces listeners to Xela Llah Llah, her Trump-voting alter-ego who lives on the other side of the looking glass and who will occasionally be coming on the podcast to explain politics from her point of view. 

After some wise words from Xela which ‘help us empathize with the other side’, Jason and Alex turn their attention back to the UK, looking at whether Starmer’s appearance at COP means anything, and how (if at all) he can push to become a more prominent global leader on a range of issues. In a rather downbeat and informal Ordering the Disorder segment, we examine the future of multilateralism and the global political order (is there any such thing anymore?) 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Matt Gaetz’s Bio and why Criminality leads to loyalty: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000677307816  

On Matt Gaetz’s replacement Pam Bondi: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/us/politics/pam-bondi-attorney-general-trump.html  

And for a Trump Cabinet Tracker: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/trump-administration-cabinet-appointees.html  

Also a link back to last week’s episode discussing how Starmer should be bolder: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ep83-trump-derangement-syndrome-with-the-two-matts/id1706818264?i=1000677421360  

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The Post-Mortem autopsy continues. How could liberal elites have had eight and half years to prepare for the twenty thousand tonne train barrelling down the tracks right at them and not been able to take sufficient evasive action? Who are these clowns? Do they deserve what is coming? What can studying years of Brexit Fatigue, Orban Exhaustion, and Netanyahu Nihilism, teach us about both how this Trumpian travesty has happened and the likely disorderly evolution of peak Neopopulism in America? And what is the antidote to Trump Derangement Syndrome?  Jason needs a double dose. 

In this episode, Jason is joined by Matt Kelly and Matt d’Ancona – the hosts of The New European’s ‘The Two Matts’ podcast. They discuss the abysmal state of the world and Keir Starmer’s inability to lead with vision. They review and assess the rise of neopopulism in both the UK and the US. The conclusion is that the goose is cooked. Complacency and a lack of bold messaging has led to the evisceration of the centre-left globally. Jason even questions if he is of the centre-left anymore, concluding he may simply be a disillusioned and increasingly radical centrist. While the Two Matts share bon mot about recent horrific developments in Britain, Jason explores some lessons from Hungary and Israel, which may possibly shed some light on the likely future trajectory of neopopulism in America. Delving briefly into the shocking and depressing cabinet appointments trickling out of MAGA world, the Two Matts and Jason also reflect on the social legacy of the Trump era and its lasting impact on Western political discourse. In place of Ordering the Disorder (which may no longer be possible as Disorder has already won), The Two Matts answer lightening round questions about the most macabre moments of Trump-iness and some of the humorous aspects of the challenges ahead. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Get the Two Matts podcast - https://podfollow.com/2matts  

Read the latest edition of the New European here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/edition/the-beast-unleashed/  

Read Jason’s article, ‘A lizard person’s guide to US election conspiracy theories’ in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/  

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