Advanced biotech (CRISPR gene editing, gene drives, personalized medicine) could be the most Disordering technology ever invented. Techniques like gene drives could help us eradicate malaria by sterilising mosquitoes, but could they also spell the end of humanity (by unleashing unintended consequences)? Or release a new pandemic – think COVID-19 which was likely caused by a lab lead of a manmade super virus – into the population? 

While biotech offers the potential to revolutionise everything, no one has yet proposed any coherent regulations over this domain. Seeking to learn more about advances in Biotech and how they interact with AI, globalization, and climate change we are joined by Jamie Metzl. Jamie is the author of Superconvergence, and Founder and Chair of the global social movement, OneShared.World. He and Jason discuss the vast opportunities and profound threats that emanate from biotech. Jason puts forth a more socially conservative vision that we need to learn from our collective past, what Jason calls the ‘French-peasant’ approach, while Jaime poopoos that approach advancing more boldly futuristic solutions. 

To Order the Disorder, Jason and Alex discuss whether top-down or bottom-up governance solutions could help solve this issue, and what we need to do to regain the public’s trust in experts. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com/  

For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com/  

And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata  

And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/  

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The Economist called Tunisia a “light unto the Arab nations” just a decade ago, yet it may soon be fading into darkness. We talk with Tunisia’s Leading Opposition Presidential Candidate, Olfa Hamdi, to find out why. 

Amidst this biggest year of elections in human history, the Tunisian election (initially scheduled for July 25 and now pushed back to October 6) has been largely forgotten in the mainstream media and even ignored by western policymakers. Yet, the dynamics at play in neo-populism’s current ascendancy in Tunisia – fear of migrants, coordination failures on behalf of Western allies, as well as Chinese and Russian meddling – are a perfect microcosm of the key aspects of Enduring Disorder elsewhere. 

On the pod, Jason is joined by Tunisian Presidential candidate Olfa Hamdi: the founder and leader of the Third Republic Party of Tunisia and former CEO and Chairwoman of the Tunisian National Airline Tunisair. She and Jason investigate: the return of communism in Tunisia; President Qais Saied’s foreign policy alignment with Russia and China; pressures emanating from the southern border of NATO; Europe’s loss of the moral high ground, and the larger topics of the western foreign policy towards the Arab world and the battle to uphold democratic norms and checks and balances throughout the world.  

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Olfa Hamdi Announces 2024 Presidential Campaign in Tunisia: https://www.newswire.com/news/olfa-hamdi-announces-2024-presidential-campaign-in-tunisia-22169766 

Tunisia’s Backsliding Democracy Turns on Migrants: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/tunisia-elections-saied-ghannouchi-eu-migration-deal/  

Tunisia abandons two-state solution; courts Iran, China, and Russia: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tunisia-abandons-two-state-solution-courts-iran-china-and-russia

Tunisia: Joint Statement Calling for End to Crackdown: https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/06/18/tunisia-joint-statement-calling-end-crackdown  

Tunisia's 2024 election: What role will migration play?  https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521 

Young Tunisians Don’t Trust Kais Saied Anymore: https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521  

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Legend has it that when King George III heard that George Washington, had decided to retire after his second term, he remarked: “If he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world.” On July 21, 2024, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. can justifiably claim to have done one of the most heroic acts in human history.  Jason may be quoting the Guardian article (whose link is further down in the shownotes), but he is not exaggerating. 

Few people voluntarily leave supreme power. Popes, Ayatollah, Presidents, Supreme Court Justices, and Dictators largely do not step down. They either die in office or lose power. Power is too addictive and seductive.  Biden has stepped down and may go do in history as a modern-day Cincinnatus. He avoided the Ruth Bader Ginsburg trap. Yes, it might have been better had it happened sooner and in a more choreographed fashion rather than Adam Schiff and George Clooney having to pull him off stage left with a cane.  Yet, better late than never.   

On this Emergency cast: Jason and Alex discuss where they were when they heard this momentous news; the bizarre oddities of the recent Republican National Convention; Trump’s selection of J D Vance as his running mate; the protectionist/America-first agenda of the Trump/Vance ticket; and how the Dems can now try to order the disorder globally and domestically but weaving a new narrative. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Biden’s selfless decision to drop out sets stage for an entirely different election: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/21/biden-decision-drop-analysis  

Nicholas Kristof: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/09/opinion/thepoint#biden-drop-out-meaning 

Alexandra Hall Hall’s recent Byline Times article: ‘Assassination Attempts and the Rise of the Right – Amid the Turmoil, Britain is Emerging as a Steadying Force’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/19/assassination-attempts-and-the-rise-of-the-right-amid-the-turmoil-britain-is-emerging-as-a-steadying-force/  

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A week ago today, NATO wrapped up its 75th anniversary summit. At the event genuine  support of Ukraine was on full display. Discussion of how to Trump-proof NATO dominated the agenda, partnerships with NATO’s southern periphery were side stepped and the war in Gaza was largely ignored. All of this was choreographed to project unity and paper over disagreements within the alliance. But do such optics actually help to Order the Disorder? 

To find out we’re joined by Jane Kinninmont – who was in Washington at the Summit. She tells Jason about the discussions on the margins of the summit – mostly about Joe Biden – and the glaring omission from the formal agenda: the Israel-Gaza conflict. She also shares a live-show discussion among her; Élie Tenenbaum, the Director of IFRI’s Security Studies Centre in Paris, just back from a mission to Kyiv; and Dr. Isabelle Werenfels, a senior fellow at the German think tank SWP. The trio opine on their impressions of the summit, the key announcements on Ukraine (which were quite minimal), the role of Spain in raising the Gaza issue, and what a Trump presidency might mean for NATO. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

“Trump-proofing NATO” has been one of the buzzwords around this summit. The BBC covers the issue here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3gr90jnxjvo  

The NATO summit’s official communique is here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm  

Jane, Isabelle and Élie were all members of an independent experts group appointed by the NATO Secretary-General to contribute ideas on NATO’s approach to the Middle East and Africa, some of which were picked up in the summit communique. The expert group report can be found here: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/5/pdf/240507-NATO-South-Report.pdf  

Jane and Isabelle wrote a version of the report here as a policy brief for SWP: https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2024C25/  

Elie’s most recent study on the military situation in Ukraine can be found here: https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/politique-etrangere/articles-de-politique-etrangere/military-stakes-war-ukraine  

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In bye gone moons, Trump inadvertently quoted Ralf Waldo Emerson, “When you strike at the King, you must kill him.” Yet on Saturday July 13, Donald Trump survived an attempt to gun him down at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Will this be one of those pivotal moments which go down in history - like the assassination of Lincoln; of Archduke Franz Ferdinand; JFK, RFK, or MLK? Or will it be like with Gavrilo Princip’s predecessors, assassins are only remembered if they succeed. Others tried to assassinate the Archduke and History won't remember them because they missed.  

Alex and Jason predict that Thomas Matthew Crooks will not be a household name for long and the impact he will have on history is likely very much the opposite of what he might have intended. Alex shares how she felt while hearing the news at a baseball tournament, while Jason shares his experience hearing the news from Saltsjoboden at the Swedish Open of backgammon. Professional gamblers noted to Jason that after the assassination attempt that the betting markets moved instantly in favour of Trump, even more so than after Biden’s poor debate performance. 

As always Jason and Alex try to order the disorder by discussing the messianic narratives around Trump and how his supporters always viewed him as a perennial victim/martyr. Now having survived this attempt on his life, it seems likely that his saintliness and blessedness in their eyes will morph into a kind of hagiography. We conclude by discussing how the Democrats could use this moment to try to rally the country together around a new kind of unifying vision. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

JD Vance selected as Trump’s running mate: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-announces-ohio-senator-j-d-vance-his-2024-running-mate  

Many high profile figures believe that surviving the assassination attempt makes Trump’s re-election a done deal: https://www.euronews.com/culture/2024/07/15/the-election-is-over-celebrities-react-to-donald-trump-assassination-attempt  

Trump says he will announce VP pick: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-rnc-news-biden  

For More on the Republican convention:  

As Alex mentioned: Judge dismisses classified documents case against Trump: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-documents-case-dismissed 

Alistair and Rory on how the Assassination attempt will affect the US election and how Rory survived an Assassination attempt against him in Iraq: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0OwsWUbmOw  

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NATO is the longest lasting and most successful military alliance in human history. Today NATOs 75th Summit in Washington, DC comes to a close. What can NATO’s past tell us about  its probably future?  

To commemorate this symbolic occasion, Jason is joined by Peter Apps. He is the author of ‘Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO’, a global defence columnist for Reuters, and a British Army reservist. He has reported from more than 20 countries over two decades, despite being paralyzed in a frontline car crash in Sri Lanka in 2006.  

Jason and Peter discuss: Lord Ismay’s dictum; how has the Ukraine war affected the alliance?; how important are personalities to the alliance and how it works?; and how can NATO’s history, institutional biography, and legacy of diplomatic flexibility shed some light on how it might respond to the unprecedented challenges around it — from the rise of the far right in National Rally in France, the AfD in Germany, to the spectre of Trump — and the challenges posed to NATO by Putin, Xi, climate change, AI, and misinformation. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Peter’s book Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO: the "astonishingly fine history" of the world's most successful military alliance https://www.amazon.co.uk/Deterring-Armageddon-Biography-astonishingly-successful/dp/103540575X  

Listen to Disorder Ep6. NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder? with Kori Shacke, Timothy Garton Ash, Jamie Shea and Charles Kupchan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9472a8b7d262dd9fb0cd9827e8947964  

About the NATO Defense College Foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/about-us 

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‘The people that walked in darkness have seen a great light; and they that dwell in the land of the shadow of Brexit, upon them hath the light shined.’ (Isaiah 9, v.2 with only one word changed) In retrospect, the melodies and lyrics of Handel’s Messiah appear quite appropriate for this most non-Messianic of Messiahs, the man of our moment, Sir Keir.  Therefore, despite Alex and Jason’s fear about the large Reform vote and their trepidation about Biden’s remaining in the US Presidential race, they still make time to ‘Rejoice, Rejoice, Rejoice Greatly’ because British democracy does work. It operates via a system of checks and balances -- where every action causes a counter reaction, and every Sunak Rwanda scheme, Truss tanking of the economy, and Boris-y lie elicits a shift in public opinion. 

Despite the positive news of Britian’s Independence from Neo-Populists, the Enduring Disorder still prevails in many corners of these resplendent Isles. Jason tells of his undercover ethnographic field trip to Clacton-on-Sea, where he discovers that Reform are actually just the UK branch of the MAGA movement. Jason and Alex debate if: 1) Britain is in a phase of post-populism or proto-populism; 2) if the wave has crested or if Britain is just at an earlier stage in development than France or the USA; 3) What we can extrapolate about how the British electorate’s protest votes over Gaza or immigration bode for the American election; and 4) the power of the anti-system and anti-incumbency pressures and how these two factors might be the big difference btw the British and American elections -- as in the US both anti-system and anti-incumbency tendencies are working for the Republicans and against the Dems, whereas in the July 4 UK election the anti-system vote worked against the Tories and for Reform while the anti-incumbency vote worked for the Tories and against Labour. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack to get a recent clip of Jason on Al Jazeera English talking about Sir Keir’s approach to Gaza: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Oh Baby What a Night, the Two Matts on the Rise of the Lib Dems and Starmer’s flawless mastery of the first past the post system: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-two-matts/id1236139906?i=1000661232273 

Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lammy-doctrine-interview-jason-cowley?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email  

Listen to an potted biography of Sir Keir’s personal, professional, and intellectual journey: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/origin-story/id1624704966?i=1000660203835  

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Later this week as they go to the polls, UK voters will likely celebrate their very own ‘Independence from Neo-Populists Day’. With Labour widely expected to secure a large majority… could this be a chance for Order within an increasingly Disordered West? If he cruises to victory, as expected, how will Sir Keir manage his relations with the EU and US? 

In this episode, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall discuss the rather uninspiring election campaign so far. They analyse why Labour’s play-it-safe ‘Gareth Southgate approach’ is dissuading some voters; what a Starmer premiership means for the UK’s relationship with the EU (could some stealth mega-ordering be on the horizon?); and how David Lammy and Kier would almost certainly reignite an increasingly ‘special relationship’ with a Biden/Democrat-led US, or how they would struggle to navigate a ‘specially-challenged-relationship’ with a Trump-led White House. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Read In Picture-Postcard English Villages, a Seismic Political Shift Is Underway (on Jeremy Hunt) from the New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/world/europe/uk-election-jeremy-hunt.html 

Sir Keir Starmer must win. Only his government can shape the future we want to see: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2024/jun/28/the-guardian-view-on-the-general-election-2024-a-labour-victory-would-be-a-reason-for-hope  

And when will we get the results: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/21/general-election-timetable-when-what-time-results/  

Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lammy-doctrine-interview-jason-cowley?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email  

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After months of the grandees in the Democratic party telling the public that Biden’s age was nothing to worry about: the Global Orderer-in Chief has been shown to have no clothes and his adult diapers were not changed prior to his appearing before an audience of tens of millions. As Mega-Orderers know, Jason is prone to melodrama, but in this instance the Sky Really Is Falling!  June 27, 2024 may go down there as one of those dates like Dec 7, 1941 and June 23, 2016: Dates that will live on in infamy.  

Biden’s debate performance truly has massive implications for global order: it will embolden Pyongyang, Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow; it creates a dangerous global vacuum with an absence of orderers for many months until the dust settles from the US election; and it leaves the democratic party with an urgent choice how to choreography the process of substituting Biden out for a younger candidate.  

To counterbalance Jason’s doom and gloom, he is joined by the ever up beat Glaswegian Jane Kinninmont who presents the view on Biden from the European capitals. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

As for what needs to happen now, here are what centrist Democrats  commentators are saying: Tom Friedman: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html  

Frank Bruni: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/presidential-debate-trump-biden-2024.html  

Scores of cogent podcasts have emerged dissecting the optics of the debate and what the Dems have to do now. Here are a couple that we have found particularly useful: 

Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-presidential-debate.html 

The Rest is Politics US: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/advantage-trump-will-the-democrats-move-to-replace/id1743030473?i=1000660512902  

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Exactly 110 years ago, a malnourished teenager with a pistol disordered the world. On Sunday the 28th of June 1914, Gavrilo Princip fired two bullets. They hit their targets -- killing both the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian imperial crown, and his wife, Sophie.  

That event ended the age of the traditional European empires, unleashed the mud and blood of the Great War, catalysed the fall of the Tsar and theoretical Marxism’s transformation into a totalitarian reality, and uncorked the nationalist genie that would lead to Hitler, the Second World War, the Holocaust, and later the Cold War. But did it also start our era of Enduring Disorder?  

Jason has certain contentions about the relative degree of order and disorder in the past -- notably that the years 1815-2011, in general, and 1946-2003, in specific, were periods characterized by global order and coherent hegemonic leadership -- but what if he is wrong? What if our global disorder didn’t start in 2003 but rather in 1914? 

In this special anniversary episode of Disorder, Tim Butcher tells Jason Pack about that fateful day exactly 110 years ago, what its disordering implications have been, how they have rippled down the years, and how modern history can be thought to have begun on that street corner in Sarajevo.  

Princip has been variously described as the `bloodiest assassin in history’ and ‘the most important person in the entire 20th century’… but in this episode, we are going to investigate if he is -- possibly more so than even Trump, Putin or the Ayatollahs -- our world’s true disorder-in-chief… As Tim explains, there is every reason to feel that the world of the Fin de Siècle was in fact more order than what came after it and that Princip is the author of the Disorder that we now inhabit. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Buy ‘The Trigger: Hunting the Assassin Who Brought the World to War’ by Tim Butcher - https://www.amazon.com/Trigger-Hunting-Assassin-Brought-World/dp/0802123899/  

For more on Gavrilo Princip’s biography: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Gavrilo-Princip  

For more on Tim Butcher’s amazing career: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Butcher  

And for his great episode on our sister Pod, Battleground: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/121-how-the-2006-war-relates-to-gaza-today/id1617276298?i=1000640849125  

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