RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers break down NFL Week 5 from a betting perspective. Dave Essler also provides a best bet.

NFL Week 5 Picks and Analysis

The podcast opens with RJ Bell providing a quick promotional offer for 7- and 30-day access packages, highlighting the current hot streaks of various handicappers like Greg Shaker and A.J. Hoffman (00:11-02:25). Steve Fezzik then joins in, sharing his overall season stats, noting a recent down week but still being up +57 units for the year (02:25-02:30).

The conversation transitions into analysis of recent NFL trends, with a key focus on load management in the NFL, a concept borrowed from the NBA. Fezzik notes that teams are increasingly conservative with player injuries, using the example of Justin Herbert, suggesting players are being rested for the long haul rather than pushed to play during regular-season games (05:08-06:34).

The core of the podcast features the team’s "best bets" for Week 5. Fezzik’s five-weight pick is the New Orleans Saints (+5.5) against the Kansas City Chiefs for Monday Night Football. His reasoning revolves around yards per play (YPP), highlighting that while Kansas City has had success in close games, they’re not playing like a 4-0 team. He anticipates value in betting against Kansas City due to their perceived lack of urgency (07:09-08:17).

Fezzik also predicts that Kansas City is overvalued, emphasizing that they will not have the urgency to maintain their hot start (08:17-08:50). RJ Bell concurs, discussing the Chiefs' success rate compared to EPA (Expected Points Added), underscoring Kansas City’s reliance on big plays rather than consistent performance. He highlights Green Bay’s reliance on big plays, comparing it to Kansas City's ability to convert key moments into victories, despite overall middling success (13:14-16:04).

Further analysis dives into Patrick Mahomes' performance. Scott Seidenberg notes that Mahomes has thrown seven turnover-worthy passes, second only to Jalen Hurts, and this hasn't been a typical start for the MVP quarterback (17:48-18:10). Fezzik agrees that Mahomes isn’t playing well, making poor decisions, though he’s optimistic Mahomes will adjust as the season progresses (18:55-19:45).

Fezzik's four-weight pick involves betting on the Rams against Green Bay, citing their tendency to rely on big plays as unsustainable. He and Bell predict a regression for Green Bay's offense, suggesting their early-season success is not built to last (24:13-29:09).

The podcast also covers the intricacies of the betting market. Fezzik discusses how Rams wide receivers are decimated by injuries, downgrading their home-field advantage in Los Angeles, where 60% of the crowd is expected to support Green Bay. This leads to skepticism about the Rams' chances, despite their defensive struggles (31:26-36:00).

Scott Seidenberg closes with an interesting stat about Patrick Mahomes, noting that when he's more than a field-goal favorite, he's only 38-43-3 against the spread (18:25-18:35), underscoring why betting on the underdog Saints is a value play.

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