Ananyo Bhattacharya is the author of The Man from the Future: The Visionary Life of John von Neumann. He is a science writer who has worked at the Economist and Nature. Before journalism, he was a medical researcher at the Burnham Institute in San Diego, California. He holds a degree in physics from the University of Oxford and a PhD in protein crystallography from Imperial College London.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Episode website here.
Follow Ananyo on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Timestamps:

(0:00:30) - John Von Neumann - The Man From The Future

(0:02:29) - The Forgotten Father of Game Theory

(0:16:04) - The last representative of the great mathematicians

(0:19:45) - Did John Von Neumann have a Miracle year?

(0:26:31) - The fundamental theorem of John von Neumann’s game theory

(0:29:34) - The strong supporter of "Preventive War”

(0:50:51) - We can't all be superhuman

Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how prediction markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions.

Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Episode website here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Timestamps:

(0:00:00) - Introduction

(0:02:29) - Predicting the future

(0:05:16) - Getting Accurate Information

(0:06:20) - Potentials

(0:09:29) - Not using internal prediction markets

(0:11:04) - Doing the painful thing

(0:13:31) - Decision Making Process

(0:14:52) - Grugett’s opinion about insider trading

(0:16:23) - The Role of prediction market

(0:18:17) - Dealing with the Speculators

(0:20:33) - Criticism of Prediction Markets

(0:22:24) - The world when people cared about prediction markets

(0:26:10) - Grugett’s Profile Background/Experience

(0:28:49) - User Result Market

(0:30:17) - The most important mechanism

(0:32:59) - The 1000 manifold dollars

(0:40:30) - Efficient financial markets

(0:46:28) - Manifold Markets Job/Career Openings

(0:48:02) - Objectives of Manifold Markets

Today I talk to Pradyu Prasad (blogger and podcaster) about the book "Hirohito and the Making of Modern Japan" by Herbert P. Bix. We also discuss militarization, industrial capacity, current events, and blogging. 

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Podcast website here.
Follow Pradyu on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Follow Pradyu's Blog: https://brettongoods.substack.com/ 

Timestamps:

(0:00:00) - Intro 

(0:01:59) - Hirohito and Introduction to the Book 

(0:05:39) - Meiji Restoration and Japan's Rapid Industrialization 

(0:11:11) - Industrialization and Traditional Military Norms 

(0:14:50) - Alternate Causes for Japanese Atrocities Richard Hanania's Public Choice Theory in Imperial Japan (0:17:03)

(0:21:34) - Hirohito's Relationship with the Military 

(0:24:33) - Rant of Japanese Strategy 

(0:33:10) - Modern Parallel to Russia/Ukraine 

(0:38:22) - Economics of War and Western War Capacity 

(0:48:14) - Elements of Effective Occupation 

(0:55:53) - Ideological Fervor in WW2 Japan 

(0:59:25) - Cynicism on Elites

(1:00:29) - The Legend of Godlike Hirohito 

(1:06:47) - Postwar Japanese Economy

(1:13:23) - Blogging and Podcasting 

(1:20:31) - Spooky 

(1:38:00) - Outro 

Please share if you enjoyed this episode! Helps out a ton!

Razib Khan is a writer, geneticist, and blogger with an interest in history, genetics, culture, and evolutionary psychology.

Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/sh04dEtBAoE

Follow Razib on Twitter: https://twitter.com/razibkhan 

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp

Time Stamps

(0:00:05) Razib's Background

(0:01:34) Dysgenics of Intelligence

(0:04:23) Endogamy and Genetic traits in India

(0:08:58) Similar Examples of Endogamy

(0:14:28) Why So Many Brahmin CEO's

(0:19:55) Razib the Globe Trotter, Geography Expert

(0:25:04) Male/Female Genetic Variance

(0:30:04) Agricultural Man and Our Tiny Brains

(0:34:40) The Church of Science

(0:42:33) Professorship, a family business

(0:44:23) Long History

(0:52:42) Future of Human Computer Interfacing

(0:56:30) Near Future of Gene Editing

(0:59:19) Meta Questions and Closing

Razib Khan is a writer, geneticist, and blogger with an interest in history, genetics, culture, and evolutionary psychology.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Podcast website here.Follow Razib on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes

Thanks for reading The Lunar Society! Subscribe to find out about future episodes!

Time Stamps

(0:00:05) Razib's Background

(0:01:34) Dysgenics of Intelligence

(0:04:23) Endogamy and Genetic traits in India

(0:08:58) Similar Examples of Endogamy

(0:14:28) Why So Many Brahmin CEOs

(0:19:55) Razib the Globe Trotter, Geography Expert

(0:25:04) Male/Female Genetic Variance

(0:30:04) Agricultural Man and Our Tiny Brains

(0:34:40) The Church of Science

(0:42:33) Professorship, a family business

(0:44:23) Long History

(0:52:42) Future of Human-Computer Interfacing

(0:56:30) Near Future of Gene Editing

(0:59:19) Meta Questions and Closing

Please share if you enjoyed this episode! Helps out a ton!

Jimmy Soni is the author of The Founders: The Story of Paypal and the Entrepreneurs Who Shaped Silicon Valley.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Episode website here.

Follow Jimmy on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes!

Timestamps:

(0:00:00) - Bell Labs vs PayPal

(0:05:12) - Scenius in Ancient Rome and America's Founding

(0:07:02) - Girard at PayPal

(0:15:17) - Thiel almost shorts the Dot com bubble

(0:19:49) - Does Zero to One contradict PayPal's story?

(0:27:57) - Hilarious Russian hacker story

(0:29:06) - Why is Thiel so good at spotting talent?

(0:34:50) - Did PayPal make talent or discover it?

(0:40:40) - Japanese mafia invests in PayPal?!

(0:44:42) - Upcoming TV show on PayPal

(0:48:11) - Musk in ancient Rome

(0:52:12) - Why didn't Musk keep pursuing finance?

(0:56:32) - Why didn't the mafia get back together?

(1:00:06) - Jimmy's writing process

I interview the economist Bryan Caplan about his new book, Labor Econ Versus the World, and many other related topics.

Bryan Caplan is a Professor of Economics at George Mason University and a New York Times Bestselling author. His most famous works include: The Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, The Case Against Education, and Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Podcast website here.
Follow Bryan on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Timestamps:

(0:00:00) - Intro

(0:00:33) - How many workers are useless, and why is labor force participation so low?

(0:03:47) - Is getting out of poverty harder than we think?

(0:10:43) - Are elites to blame for poverty?

(0:14:56) - Is human nature to blame for poverty?

(0:19:11) - Remote work and foreign wages

(0:24:43) - The future of the education system?

(0:29:31) - Do employers care about the difficulty of a curriculum?

(0:33:13) - Why do companies and colleges discriminate against Asians?

(0:42:01) - Applying Hanania's unitary actor model to mental health

(0:50:38) - Why are multinationals so effective?

(0:53:37) - Open borders and cultural norms

(0:58:13) - Is Tyler Cowen right about automation?

Richard Hanania is the President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology and the author of Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Episode website here.

Follow Richard on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.

Read Richard's Substack: https://richardhanania.substack.com/

Timestamps:

(0:00:00) - Intro

(0:04:35) - Did war prevent sclerosis?

(0:06:05) - China vs America's grand strategy

(0:10:00) - Does the president have more power over foreign policy?

(0:11:30) - How to deter bad actors?

(0:15:39) - Do some countries have a coherent foreign policy?

(0:16:55) - Why does self-interest matter in foreign but not domestic policy? 

(0:21:05) - Should we limit money in politics?

(0:23:47) - Should we credit expertise for nuclear detante and global prosperity?

(0:28:45) - Have international alliances made us safer?

(0:31:57) - Why does academic bueracracy work in some fields?

(0:36:26) - Did academia suck even before diversity?

(0:39:34) - How do we get expertise in social sciences?

(0:42:19) - Why are things more liberal?

(0:43:55) - Why is big tech so liberal?

(0:47:53) - Authoritarian populism vs libertarianism

(0:51:40) - Can authoritarian governments increase fertility?

(0:54:54) - Will increasing fertility be dysgenic?

(0:56:43) - Will not having kids become cool?

(0:59:22) -Advice for libertarians?

David Deutsch is the founder of the field of quantum computing and the author The Beginning of Infinity and The Fabric of Reality.

Read me contra David on AI.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Read the full transcript with helpful links here.

Follow David on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future podcasts.

Timestamps

(0:00:00) - Will AIs be smarter than humans? 

(0:06:34) - Are intelligence differences immutable / heritable?

(0:20:13) - IQ correletation of twins seperated at birth

(0:27:12) - Do animals have bounded creativity?

(0:33:32) - How powerful can narrow AIs be?

(0:36:59) - Could you implant thoughts in VR?

(0:38:49) - Can you simulate the whole universe?

(0:41:23) - Are some interesting problems insoluble?

(0:44:59) - Does America fail Popper's Criterion?

(0:50:01) - Does finite matter mean there's no beginning of infinity?

(0:53:16) - The Great Stagnation

(0:55:34) - Changes in epistemic status is Popperianism

(0:59:29) - Open ended science vs gain of function

(1:02:54) - Contra Tyler Cowen on civilizational lifespan

(1:07:20) - Fun criterion

(1:14:16) - Does AGI through evolution require suffering?

(1:18:01) - Would David enter the Experience Machine?

(1:20:09) - (Against) Advice for young people

Samo Burja is the founder of Bismarck Analysis and a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation. Samo writes and speaks about history, institutions, and strategy, and he is the creator of the Great Founder Theory of history.

Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.

Episode website here.

Follow Samo's Twitter. Follow my twitter for updates on future episodes.

Subscribe to Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/

Thanks for reading The Lunar Society! Subscribe to find out about future episodes!

Timestamps:

(0:00:00) - Intro

(0:00:17) - Are individuals causally responsible for history?

(0:04:34) - Was Napoleon a great founder?

(0:08:47) - What can great founder theory predict?

(0:11:17) - How many live players are there?

(0:15:40) - Is the market full of live players?

(0:18:37) - How to cozy up to both sides?

(0:22:58) - How do you become an intellectual?

(0:27:34) - Aligning incentives for intellectuals

(0:30:40) - What makes someone a great founder?

(0:39:29) - Why is the centralized internet inevitable?

(0:42:21) - Samo and I debate odds of civilizational collapse

(0:48:17) - Is GDP fake?

(0:56:52) - The world only has 1.5 civilizations

(0:59:32) - Advice to effective altruists

(1:02:30) - Advice to young people