The narrative from central banks has decidedly shifted from the risk of further tightening to signaling the next move will be lower. To paraphrase the message Powell gave us last week – we have confidence, and our confidence has increased that inflation will meet our objective, but we need more confidence before we start to cut. With central banks expecting a soft landing, they are gently easing into the easing cycle. When will central banks have enough confidence to pull the trigger & where will policy rates ultimately land?

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts