Macro Minutes

The Fed delivered a super-sized rate cut to the start of the cycle last week. More likely they go back to smaller 25bp moves if labour data remains resilient. But another large move is not out of the realm of possibility. We think the BoC is on course for 5 straight 25’s but they could front-load with a 50bp move in October or December if growth data shows a large undershoot vs potential. The BoE and ECB seem set to take things slow, but a larger cut is a non-zero chance.

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

With the Fed and ECB set to follow the BoC’s lead with 25bp cuts of their own, a number of the major central banks are now back in sync. So far, these central banks look to be proceeding gradually along their respective cutting paths, but the possibility of larger cuts still loom should economic conditions start to deteriorate. Meanwhile, others are proving even more cautious, with the next cut from central banks such as the RBA and BoE even further afield.

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

There are nuances in every economic cycle but this one continues to feel different. Central banks are firmly in easing mode - the Fed will join the rate-cutting party in September. The timing and magnitude of rate cuts is the main topic for financial markets and is highly dependent on the assessment of the economic cycle. Listen to our macro and rates experts discuss the US, Canada, and European economies and central bank outlooks.

Participants:

• Michael Reid (Desk Strategy), US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We have seen very large market moves triggered by the US labour market report over the last few days that have also led to quite a few market participants changing their view on Fed rate cuts. We take a deeper dive into the data, highlight important questions that need answering and reiterate our rates call for the Fed and all other major central banks. We do not feel the need to make changes at this stage!

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Markets have been pricing more rate cuts again on the back of somewhat weaker data releases, specifically in the US. Yet, central banks remain reticent in telegraphing rate cuts clearly. Can the latter change and make markets price in even more?

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Two G7 central banks have already cut – the ECB & BoC . Both should cut more as the year progresses while the BoE and Fed are likely to join the rate-cutting party later this year. At the other end of the spectrum is the RBA which is widely expected to keep the cash rate steady this year. Each country has its own nuances that will impact the timing and magnitude of policy changes, which we discuss in this podcast under the theme of green lights (i.e. what makes them move), yellow (what creates confusion or a pause), and red lights (what could stop them dead in their tracks).

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Analyst
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The BOC and ECB both kicked off long-awaited cutting cycles last week with questions about the depth and duration of these cycles likely to drive markets from here. But in other regions the case for pulling forward cuts is still somewhat weak. Where other central banks remain on hold, the trading environment might remain relatively rangebound into this summer.

Participants:

• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Two developed market central banks have already cut - Riksbank and SNB - and the BoC, ECB and BoE should follow suit over the next couple of months. But the higher for longer theme is dominating the US rates market. The divergence in macro and policy is the major theme in rates markets. The other important theme is that despite Fed cuts being priced out, risk assets continue to perform well with the S&P making new highs and credit spreads at cycle tights.

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Lori Calvasina (Research),Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Markets have been ultra-sensitive to data for some time now, going back to market pricing for hikes starting in late 2021. More recently, several strong US inflation prints have de-railed the potential for upcoming Fed cuts, while upside surprises have occurred in Canada, the UK and Australia in the recent weeks. Will these data points be determinant for upcoming central bank decisions? What important releases are to come?

Participants:

• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Michael Reid (Desk Strategy), US Economist
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist
• Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The latest resilience in the US has kick started a debate about how much other regions that appear to not show the same kind of underlying strength can diverge from the Fed and cut rates regardless. We see the best chances of that happening in Canada, but also provide updated views on the BoE, ECB and RBA. Meanwhile, the gyrations in the JPY keep investors on their toes and we add our voice to the mix of what lies in store.

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist Blake/Izaac: FOMC
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts