Macro Minutes

A broad tour of global FX markets spanning Asia, G10, and LatAm, covering key currency trades, positioning, and central bank divergence. The discussion highlights major risks into year-end, including an AI-trade pullback, China trade tensions, US Treasury moves, and political uncertainty in Brazil.

Participants:

• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Global Head of FX Strategy & Head of EMEA Institutional FX Sales
• Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist
• Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

There has been a substantial widening of spreads in the European bond markets. While the epicentre is in the French bond market, it seems to have morphed from a French idiosyncratic problem to a broader one, a problem that comes on top of a whole list of issues and specifically on top of the energy crisis that is still unresolved.

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• George Moran (Desk Strategy), European Economist
• Megum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Bond yields have spiked globally led by an inter-related combination of oil prices and re-pricing of central bank terminal rates. Momentum and investors exiting long exposure has added fuel to the fire. To put it in context, the one-month increase in US 2y yields is one of the largest over the past 25 years. This has pushed up long term rates and flattened the curve. These dynamics haven’t been isolated to the US market; it is a global phenomenon. For now, risk asset such as equities and credit has been well behaved, but history shows when rates rise sharply and there is an accompanying exogenous shock like oil, that small cracks in macro or markets can grow.

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

For most of 2026, Emerging Market assets held their ground against a wall of external headwinds — but September may mark the moment that resilience finally cracks. A surprise Fed hike, relentless UST repricing, and a USD trading near multi-year highs are draining the confidence that underpinned EM idiosyncratic trades across every region. In this episode, Luis Estrada, Dasha Parkhomenko, and Abbas Keshvani take stock of what is breaking down, what is holding, and how G10 developments are eroding EM resilience.

Participants:

• Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist
• Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist
• Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The ECB hiked rates a second time in this cycle last week and did not suggest that the 2.50% they previously flagged as top end of neutral will be a key line in the sand. In contrast, the BoE did not hike this week, but left the door wide open to do so – maybe even before the end of 2026. Listen to Peter and Cathal as they dissect both recent meetings and provide an outlook for the rates paths going forward against a difficult energy price outlook.

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this Partner of Choice special episode, we look at how change across European markets is creating new opportunities for resilient growth and how RBC is strengthening its capabilities in response, across our people, products, and technology, to help clients to capture these opportunities.

Speakers:

• Sian Hurrell, Co-CEO, RBC Europe & Europe Head, Capital Markets
• Mark Tinworth, Head of Global Markets Sales, Europe

Learn how we combine depth of insight and executional excellence, to deliver leading solutions for our clients as their partner of choice: Partner of Choice | RBC Capital Markets

Discover the how our combination of Canadian heritage, global scale and European expertise enables us to support our clients across Europe: Europe | RBC Capital Markets

EM FX has enjoyed a lift from a constructive macro backdrop, with growth resilient and inflation generally under control. We retain a bullish bias (long KRW, MYR, BRL) but caution against being exposed to higher energy prices. We also maintain some hedge trades in our portfolio.

Participants:

• Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist
• Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist
• Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

As summer ends, financial markets face a crucial semester ahead. The next Fed meeting looms large and the path to hikes runs squarely through inflation, with or without, Warsh’s blessing. Until there is sustained progress on price pressures, market expectations will be sticky for pricing hikes. US-Canada trade tensions have escalated but the Canadian economy has managed past tariffs well and has fiscal space and flexibility to ride it out. Sustained above trend growth is required for the BoC to hike. The ECB will surely hike in September, but will they do more after that? The UK budget promises revelations on fiscal policy that could reshape the outlook for yields. Tune in to hear RBC's macro experts discusses these topics and related market themes.

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The summer of soccer is over—and geopolitics and the Fed just took the pitch. Our EM strategists break down why they have locked in gains, where the Brazilian real goes from here, the South African rand's new vulnerability, and why the Korean won is the MVP of July.

• Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist
• Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist
• Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

With the ECB keeping rates on hold, and the BOE and Fed expected to do the same, Blake and George explore what's really driving central bank decisions. From energy market pressures in Europe to an unexpectedly hawkish Fed backdrop, discover why holding steady is anything but straightforward in this week's policy meetings.

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• George Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts