As summer ends, financial markets face a crucial semester ahead. The next Fed meeting looms large and the path to hikes runs squarely through inflation, with or without, Warsh’s blessing. Until there is sustained progress on price pressures, market expectations will be sticky for pricing hikes. US-Canada trade tensions have escalated but the Canadian economy has managed past tariffs well and has fiscal space and flexibility to ride it out. Sustained above trend growth is required for the BoC to hike. The ECB will surely hike in September, but will they do more after that? The UK budget promises revelations on fiscal policy that could reshape the outlook for yields. Tune in to hear RBC's macro experts discusses these topics and related market themes.

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The summer of soccer is over—and geopolitics and the Fed just took the pitch. Our EM strategists break down why they have locked in gains, where the Brazilian real goes from here, the South African rand's new vulnerability, and why the Korean won is the MVP of July.

• Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist
• Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist
• Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

With the ECB keeping rates on hold, and the BOE and Fed expected to do the same, Blake and George explore what's really driving central bank decisions. From energy market pressures in Europe to an unexpectedly hawkish Fed backdrop, discover why holding steady is anything but straightforward in this week's policy meetings.

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• George Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this all-Antipodean edition of Macro Minutes, Robert Thompson and Mary Jo Vergara discuss the RBNZ hiking the OCR rates for the first time in three years with more to come, in contrast to the RBA, which is stepping back into the shadows after three quick-fire hikes in February, March, and May.

Participants:

• Robert Thompson (Desk Strategy), Head of Australian Economics & Rates Strategy
• Mary Jo Vergara (Desk Strategy), Senior Economist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Canadian economy is at stall speed and the BoC is in a holding pattern. There has been no GDP growth and anemic employment gains over the last year – amid the dual forces of a population and trade shock. The consumer has actually been quite resilient in the face of these shocks. While the starting point should keep the BoC on hold for the rest of the year, better prospects for growth are ahead and this should see the BoC delivering hikes in 2027. Listen for more detailed views on the Canadian economy and fixed income markets in the coming quarters.

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canadian Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this month's Emerging Markets edition, Luis Estrada is joined by Abbas Keshvani and Dasha Parkhomenko to analyze recent developments across emerging markets. The discussion covers the changing direction of the US dollar, preferred trades for the current environment, and key risks to their outlook.

Participants:

• Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist
• Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist
• Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this special edition of Macro Minutes, Peter Schaffrik is joined by Blake Gwinn to dissect the first FOMC meeting under the new chairman Warsh. Blake shares his views on the task forces set up, the market reaction to the change in the SEP projections and explains why he still does not expect rate hikes this year.

Participants:

Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics

Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Straight after the ECB’s first rate increase in quite a few years, Cathal Kennedy and Peter Schaffrik discuss the ECB’s rate hike, the set of new forecast and the likely path going forward. Peter and Cathal also discuss next week’s BoE meeting and compare and contrast the two central banks’ approach to monetary policy at present.

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Recorded at the Global Energy, Power, and Infrastructure Conference in New York, this special edition brings a real-time read on where markets stand. Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, joined Amy Wu Silverman and Callie Simpkins for an on-the-ground conversation about the US equity outlook and key macro themes. They break down why inflation remains the risk to watch and what it means for equity market positioning.

Participants:

• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy
• Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy
• Callie Simpkins, Managing Director, Cross-Asset Hedge Fund Sales

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

There are good reasons to wait for confirmation of a deal before loading up on risk. But while we wait, we recommend being oil-neutral via RV strategies between energy importers. In a post-war world, we see opportunities to turn bullish on currencies that have been dragged by the war. We also discuss potential the impact of politics in Latam and EMEA FX, China fiscal stimulus, KRW underperformance, and more.

• Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist
• Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist
• Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts