This week, we are excited to bring you a special edition of the podcast, a recording of a panel done by Lori Calvasina (Head of US Equity Strategy), Helima Croft (Head of Global Commodity & MENA Research), and Frances Donald (Chief Economist, Royal Bank of Canada) on March 10th, 2026, at the RBC Financials conference in NYC.

The team discussed recent events in the Middle East and the implications for the US economy and stock market, and was moderated by Brian Sullivan of CNBC.

The big things you need to know:

1. First, we review the results of a survey we conducted of RBC’s equity analysts on the conflict in Iran, which helps explain the resilience we’ve seen in the S&P 500.
2. Second, the valuation and sentiment barometers we’re tracking point to room for further downside in the S&P 500 in the near-term in absolute terms, while our work on US valuations vs. other global developed markets highlights why the US equity market has been embraced as a safe haven, helping outperformance versus global peers to re-ignite.

The big things you need to know:

1. We run through five things we’re thinking about regarding recent developments in the Middle East from a stock market perspective.
2. Then, we wrap up with a few things we’re watching in terms of general stats to help us know when the recent risk off mood in markets may have played out.

The big things you need to know:

1. First, the stock market is still experiencing a growth scare, in our view, where it is attempting to stabilize. We see more downside if recession is priced in.
2. Second, we review how the process of resetting EPS expectations has begun, and run though key themes from the early reporters and companies that have presented at conferences since the Rose Garden. Our overarching takeaway from our reading is that recession is not yet a foregone conclusion but also that US equities are not out of the woods.
3. Third, we run through our latest thoughts on the Growth trade, which has been outperforming again, and note that it is not a clear-cut call.

The big things you need to know:

1. First, we review our stance on Small Caps. We had a little more love for them coming into Valentine’s Day weekend due to better fundamentals, but still see challenges that raise the bar for further outperformance (less appealing positioning and valuations, plus continued linkage to evolving views on the Fed).
2. Second, other things that jump out include more evidence of a tough reporting season, the slide in sentiment on the AAII survey which is not signaling oversold conditions yet, and thoughts on why we’re not intrigued with the Tech sector yet from a generalist perspective.
3. Programming note: The podcast will be on break next week and resume later this month.

The big things you need to know:

1. First, we run through our thoughts on last week’s choppy price action in the S&P 500 and reiterate our 7,750 12-month-forward S&P 500 price target.
2. Second, we update the stats we’re tracking for 4Q25 reporting season, which generally bounced back in our latest update but remain weaker than what we’ve seen in past reporting seasons.

The big things you need to know:

1. First, reporting season stats have come in “slightly squishy” in our view, suggesting to us that the choppy price action in the S&P 500 of late has been about more than geopolitical concerns.
2. Second, what we read in earnings call transcripts this past week continues to suggest that the macro backdrop is mixed, though we are not seeing any indications of major problems.
3. Third, the thing that jumped out the most to us in our other updates was the slight downtick in optimism on the stock market outlook in the latest Conference Board consumer confidence survey.

The big things you need to know:

1. First, the various earnings stats we track point to a sleepy start to reporting season, suggesting to us that geopolitics hasn’t been the only thing contributing to the US equity market’s recent gyrations. These stats also highlight how the mega cap growth trade has seen its dominance on the earnings front erode in some ways, helping fuel the rotation trade to Value and Small Caps.
2. Second, our review of this past week’s earnings call commentary suggests that views of the macro have been mixed, with geopolitical concerns and consumer pressures noted, but tariffs described as manageable.
3. Third, things that jump out from our other updates include the rise in the Russell 2000’s P/Es which are approaching 2024 highs

The big things you need to know:

1. First, our thoughts on earnings heading into 4Q25 reporting season – questions we think need answering and stats we’re watching.
2. Second, other updates include our thoughts on implications in house views on the Fed for our own US equity market outlook, why we think last week’s economic data releases support the strong start to the year in US equities, why we think Small Cap performance is at an important crossroads vs. Large Cap, and how recent trends in funds flows capture the complex crosscurrents in place for US equities today.

The big things you need to know: First, after updating our models for end of year, we are reiterating our 7,750 12-month S&P 500 price target, noting that the signal from our sentiment model deteriorated since our last update in early December while the signal from our GDP model strengthened. Second, a few things that jumped out in our other updates included the recent divergence in the size and style trades, the S&P 500’s inability to recapture last summer’s peak on the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions, and the latest results of the Duke CFO survey where optimism picked up on one’s own company and the broader economy, accompanied by an optimistic view on the productivity benefits coming from AI.