RBC's Markets in Motion

The big things you need to know:

• First, 3Q26 reporting season is off to a slightly soft start on the stats, with company commentary generally still highlighting resilience in the economy and consumers and tailwinds from AI, with some caveats, while giving investors plenty to think about in terms of risks that may lie ahead.
• Second, recurring topics in conversations last week with US investors included midterms, earnings, and positioning. Overall, investors came across as neutral with a dose of nervousness and a bit more short-term focused than usual.
• Third, other things that jump out in our other updates include the broad pivot we’re seeing in a number of key positioning trades and the recent widening in high yield credit spreads, which is a new potential point of concern for Small Caps.

The big things you need to know:

• First, we enter 3Q26 reporting season seeing risks in both directions.
• Second, the investors we met with in Canada last week were best described as cautiously optimistic, with earnings, midterms, and confusion over recent resiliency in the equity market all top of mind.
• Third, other things that jump out this week include the recent surge in US performance relative to non-US which may be on borrowed time, the bounce back in investor sentiment, and a few important shifts in sector valuations ahead of reporting season.

The big things you need to know:

• First, our analysts are moderately constructive across the globe, though we did detect a bit more optimism outside of the US.
• Second, Energy, Health Care, and Technology stand out at the global sector level for capturing some of the most optimistic views on all of our main questions.
• Third, within the US, muted midterm views remain in place at the broader stock market level, but our analysts did highlight a few potential sector trades in different scenarios.
• Fourth, in terms of key risks, our US analysts expressed more concern about the potential for higher interest rates than the potential weakening of the AI theme.

The big things you need to know:

• First, Friday’s weaker than expected jobs report, which was still viewed as healthy by our economists, left us feeling incrementally better about Small Cap.
• Second, other things that jump out in our updates this week include the stall in stock market optimism among consumers in the latest Conference Board survey, recent deterioration in our earnings yield gap model, low layoff levels in the Challenger report, the stall in Democratic sweep expectations in midterm betting markets, and the expensive valuations we continue to see in Financials, Industrials, and Utilities.

The big things you need to know:

• First, we reviewed the drawdowns in the S&P 500 of 11% or more dating back to 1956, an exercise that helps to clarify why US equities have been resilient recently (in particular, strong earnings and capex dynamics).
• Second, other things that jump out in our updates include the link between crude oil and 10-year yields, the renewed leadership of the US and mega cap growth trades, the lack of movement in consensus EPS forecasts for most sectors (ex Energy, Mag 7, and Tech) in September, the slight softening of C suite confidence we saw in the latest Duke CFO survey, and the surge in expectations for a Democratic sweep in betting markets.

The big things you need to know:

• First, our review of S&P 500 performance during the Fed hiking cycles that have occurred since the mid 1990s reminded us that the stock market tends to stumble at lift off, with a median initial drop of 9.6% (ex 2022, which was an extreme outlier). This keeps us vigilant for a near-term tier 1/garden variety pullback of 5-10% in the S&P 500.
• Second, other things that jumped out in our updates this week included the sharp drop in AAII net bulls to levels that have generally marked the low since early 2025 when the liberation day tariffs shocked the market (which suggests investor sentiment is at a crossroads), and the choppiness we continue to see in most major positioning trades (Growth/Value, US/non-US) other than Small Caps which have continued to underperform Large Caps.

The big things you need to know:

• First, with the US summer ending and fall getting underway, we refresh our thoughts on the US equity market outlook in terms of both the near term (where we think risks of a tier 1 / garden-variety pullback have grown) and the longer term (where we remain constructive and reiterate our 12-month S&P 500 price target of 8,150, noting that upside risk exists if interest rate fears recede).

• Second, after taking a break from our Pulse report over the past few weeks, we run through some of the key things that jump out in our other updates in terms of valuations, flows, capex, and Small Caps.

The big things you need to know:

• First, we took a look back at equity market and sector performance in 2H18 and 2H22, around the last two midterm elections. Conditions were choppy with two distinct drawdowns interrupted by a meaningful rally. Consumer Staples and Health Care outperformed during the drawdowns while Financials, Industrials, and Materials outperformed in the rebounds.
• Second, other things that jump out in our updates this week include shifts we’re seeing in our factor work, descriptions of a cautious consumer in our earnings call transcript analysis, the tendency of the stock market to perform well when IPO activity is ramping up, and what we see as reasonable valuations across the major indices in the US.

The big things you need to know:

• First, takeaways from last week’s meetings with Australia-based investors, in which our conversations focused on inflation / interest rates / the Fed, the US midterm elections, and the rotation trade.
• Second, key big-picture themes in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls included a cautiously optimistic tone among companies, consumer descriptions that seemed a little more complicated than usual, a renewed conversation on Iran war impacts, heightened attention to inflation pressures, and increasingly specific commentary from non-Tech companies about AI impacts.
• Third, other things that jump out in our weekly updates include the recent spike in gold prices (which has occurred alongside a drop in presidential approval), recent improvements in the 2Q26 S&P 500 EPS growth rate (which now appears to be the peak), and recent developments in sector funds flows (where Consumer flows have turned positive and Tech flows have stayed positive, among other trends).

The big things you need to know:

• First, valuation opportunity is opening up in the US equity market from a variety of perspectives.
• Second, in the aftermath of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, we highlight how the stock market tends to experience choppy performance in the first few months under a new Fed Chair.
• Third, other things that jump out in our updates this week include the return of high EPS quality outperformance as a factor in both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, the modest uptick in stock market optimism in the Conference Board consumer survey that was out this week, and what we’re watching on the midterms (which we continue to see as a risk factor in the months ahead).
• Fourth, we’ve gone through our monthly refresh of the models that feed into our 12-month S&P 500 price target and are sticking with our 8,150 forecast, though we continue to believe that the path for stocks will not be a linear one.