The big thing you need to know:

• The big thing you need to know: We are introducing preliminary forecasts for the S&P 500 for 2026 of 7,100 (a 2H26 price target) and $297 (full-year 2026 S&P 500 EPS). We think they should be viewed as a very early indication of how our models are tracking at the moment.

RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market.

The big things you need to know:

• First, we see Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report as having added some additional uncertainty to the US equity market outlook at a time when we’ve been on guard for choppiness for other reasons.
• Second, we reiterate our overweight stance on the S&P 500 Materials sector.
• Third, other things that jump out to us include the weakness in bitcoin and the deterioration in US equity flows and retail flows specifically, which add to our near-term concerns.

The big things you need to know: First, 2Q earnings season wrapped up with downward pressure on 2026 sector EPS forecasts & Small Cap operating margin forecasts. Second, following Friday’s news that the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit had ruled against the reciprocal tariffs, we think corporate uncertainty around tariffs will remain elevated.

The big things you need to know:

• First, a better longer-term EPS outlook and more resilient operating margin forecasts help explain the recent outperformance of mega cap growth stocks and growth-oriented sectors
• Second, Small Caps recently saw a brief/mild outperformance pop on mounting Fed cut optimism, but we remain neutral on Small Caps given elevated valuations and below-average consensus GDP expectations.
• Third, mixed vibes to end the summer make us question whether the sentiment recovery that has powered US stocks may soon hit a speed bump.

The big thing you need to know: First, with reporting season starting to wind down, Health Care and Tech stand out positively on a few of our earnings-related sector stats. Second, we recap what we read in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls. The overall tone improved vs. the prior week, but we still detected plenty of uncertainty as reporting season winds down particularly on demand, the consumer, mitigation levers yet to be pulled, and capex. Third, we run through a few other things that jump out on our high frequency indicators including the surge in Growth stocks, waning investor sentiment, and the sharp US equity funds outflows seen in the latest EPFR data.

The big thing you need to know:

Our overall impression from 2Q25 reporting season is that companies are managing through tariffs fairly well so far, but it’s still too early to assume tariffs won’t generate inflation pressures. We run through four takeaways on what we learned in 2Q25 reporting season last week regarding the overall tone, the state of demand, the consumer, and the timing of tariff impacts.

The big things you need to know:

• First, we run through our first impressions from week 1 of 2Q25 reporting season in terms of both the stats and company commentary. Out of the gate, our impression is that it’s been fine but not fabulous.
• Second, we review what else jumps out to us on our high frequency indicators which includes the underperformance of quality factors, average levels of bullishness on the weekly AAII retail investor survey, and subdued flows to US equity funds.

The big things you need to know: First, we are lifting our year-end 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,250, essentially taking our price target back to where it was in mid-March. Second, there is no change to our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $258, which is slightly below consensus. We also review what we’ve learned from the early reporters, which makes us think it’s too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts. Third, we’re adding the momentum trade and earnings sentiment for mega cap growth to the list of things worrying us about the stock market near-term.

The big things you need to know:

• First, we review the bull thesis that we heard in client meetings last week, and our thoughts on where it could go wrong.
• Second, we review how the rally in equities has been looking a bit overdone on our valuation and EPS modeling, and how we’re also starting to run out of room on one of our sentiment studies.
• Third, conditions are rather mixed for US equities at the moment. We walk through things that look good, and things that look not so good. In the latter camp, one thing that stands out as particularly important to us is the failure of c-suite sentiment in widely followed surveys to inflect positively, as has been the case with consumer, small business, and investor sentiment surveys.

Four big things you need to know: First, globally our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months. Second, driven in part by our survey results, we are making six changes to our US sector calls – we dig in a little deeper to the upgrades of Materials, Consumer Staples, and REITs here. Third, while we don’t make recommendations on non-US sectors, we do highlight how Financials is a favorite across the globe among our analysts. Fourth, improving 2026 consensus GDP forecasts are a positive outlier for the US compared to our other coverage regions, which we think has been helping boost US performance.