The big things you need to know:

• First, lingering concerns about interest rates and the Fed flared up on Friday after a surprisingly strong NFP report. We run through our thoughts on why this hit the Nasdaq so hard and note that risk of a tier 1 / garden variety pullback (5-10% from peak) has risen in the near term.
• Second, other things that jump out include the recent drop in bitcoin, which supports the idea that risks of a tier 1 pullback have risen, and the sharp drop in Small Caps on Friday on interest rate fears.

RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This is a special edition of the podcast recorded live from the RBC Global Energy Power and Infrastructure Conference in New York on June 3rd, 2026. Lori teamed up with Callie Simpkins (Managing Director on RBCCM’s Cross Asset Hedge Fund sales team who moderated the discussion) and Amy Wu Silverman (Managing Director and Head of Derivatives Strategy) to discuss the outlook for the US equity market and other key macro issues including inflation.

Two big things you need to know:

• First, Lori and Amy review how the US equity market rally seems late innings in some respects, but is not making clear signs of a top and why there could still be room to run.
• Second, they emphasize inflation as a key risk factor, and how it factors into the equity market outlook and positioning.

The big things you need to know:

• First, earnings sentiment (the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions) is now improving broadly within the equity market, which we think opens the door for a short-term pause in mega cap Growth leadership within the US and US leadership within global developed markets equities.
• Second, the Growth/Value trade within Large Cap has turned choppy again, which we think may reflect the broadening out of improving earnings sentiment and valuations that have started to look frothy for mega cap Growth on some metrics.
• Third, stock market optimism improved in the latest Conference Board survey, a bright spot in the consumer narrative and a data point that alleviates some of our near-term pullback concerns.

The big things you need to know:

• First, we think the recent pick up in 10-year yields raises the risk of a tier 1 (5-10%) pullback in the S&P 500 in the short-term, but does not alter our longer-term constructive view on the S&P 500.
• Second, it was business as usual at the RBC Health Care conference last week in terms of company commentary.
• Third, other things that jump out from our latest updates include a move up in the median NTM P/E for the biggest market cap names in the S&P 500 (which also adds to risk of a near-term pullback).

The big things you need to know:

• First, the investors we met with this past week, in our trip to London and Switzerland, were keen to explore other opportunities in US equities beyond Semis/Tech/AI, but had difficulty envisioning what those were.
• Second, we highlight continued outperformance of high price momentum in our factor work and what we’re seeing in our valuation work for this part of the market, a pick up in the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500 as reporting season slows down, and the signal we’re currently getting from S&P 500 and Russell 2000 forward P/Es – things are moving up but aren’t universally back to their 2025 and early 2026 highs.

In this special cross over edition (originally recorded for the RBC Capital Markets Macro Minutes podcast), Lori joins Blake Gwinn, Head of RBC Capital Markets US Rates Strategy in a conversation on US equities, US rates, and the Fed.

What we discuss:

Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine the complacency narrative through both an equity and rates lens, unpacking whether risk assets are fully pricing the range of Iran conflict outcomes or looking past risks that haven't fully materialized yet. We also dig into what a Warsh-led Fed means for forward guidance, dissent, and market volatility, and what the shifting policy backdrop means for how investors position across equities and rates.

The big things you need to know:

• First, we have lifted our 12-month-forward S&P 500 price target to 7,900, which represents a 7.7% gain from the May 7th close. In adjusting our forecast, we are focusing on our valuation/EPS model, which does the best job of baking in a two-speed economy and earnings backdrop.
• Second, on bigger-picture positioning, we continue to prefer Growth over Value, US over non-US, and like Small Caps (but not as much as Large Cap Growth).
• Our sector views are mostly unchanged, but we have lowered Health Care to market weight from overweight. Third, we run through the strong stats from 1Q26 reporting season.

The big things you need to know:

• First, US equity market valuations are on the rise, but don’t look topped out yet. We remain constructive on the US equity market in the year ahead, recognizing that the path may not be linear.
• Second, last week’s earnings reports continued to point to resilient outlooks with a dose of caution fueled by a strong start to the year, highlighted challenges to consumer resiliency in restaurants and travel but otherwise a reiteration of the cautious but stable theme, and alluded to a complex web of buffers in place for companies regarding the impact of the war in Iran for a period of time.
• Third, things that jump out in our other updates include a sharp spike in company references to geopolitics in April, a stall in investor sentiment last week, and a pick-up in betting market expectations for a split Congress in the midterms.

The big things you need to know:

• First, the three things that stuck out to us in our review of earnings calls last week included outlooks that emphasized resiliency but contained a dose of caution, the conversation on Iran war impacts (present and future) getting underway, and descriptions of cautious but stable consumers.
• Second, with US equities breaking out to a new 2026 high relative to non-US equities, we note that valuations suggest there’s room for this trade to run and that weak earnings revisions breadth is not a problem unique to the US.
• Third, funds flows are shifting back to Financials and Growth, which we think makes sense from a valuation and earnings growth perspective.

The big things you need to know:

• First, our analysts were generally constructive aside from the war.
• Second, our survey results reiterate the idea that the US is seen as a safety trade due to greater war resiliency, and that Europe does not necessarily present as a better alternative despite the potential for the US to lag if/when war fog clears.
• Third, we review the most interesting sector tidbits from the survey.