The big things you need to know:

• First, US equity market valuations are on the rise, but don’t look topped out yet. We remain constructive on the US equity market in the year ahead, recognizing that the path may not be linear.
• Second, last week’s earnings reports continued to point to resilient outlooks with a dose of caution fueled by a strong start to the year, highlighted challenges to consumer resiliency in restaurants and travel but otherwise a reiteration of the cautious but stable theme, and alluded to a complex web of buffers in place for companies regarding the impact of the war in Iran for a period of time.
• Third, things that jump out in our other updates include a sharp spike in company references to geopolitics in April, a stall in investor sentiment last week, and a pick-up in betting market expectations for a split Congress in the midterms.

The big things you need to know:

• First, the three things that stuck out to us in our review of earnings calls last week included outlooks that emphasized resiliency but contained a dose of caution, the conversation on Iran war impacts (present and future) getting underway, and descriptions of cautious but stable consumers.
• Second, with US equities breaking out to a new 2026 high relative to non-US equities, we note that valuations suggest there’s room for this trade to run and that weak earnings revisions breadth is not a problem unique to the US.
• Third, funds flows are shifting back to Financials and Growth, which we think makes sense from a valuation and earnings growth perspective.

The big things you need to know:

• First, our analysts were generally constructive aside from the war.
• Second, our survey results reiterate the idea that the US is seen as a safety trade due to greater war resiliency, and that Europe does not necessarily present as a better alternative despite the potential for the US to lag if/when war fog clears.
• Third, we review the most interesting sector tidbits from the survey.

The big things you need to know:

• First, despite the strong rebound in the US equity market, investor sentiment remained subdued last week. This signals to us that there is room for US equities to run and climb a wall of worry.
• Second, 1Q26 reporting season got off to a strong start last week, evidenced by a sharp pickup in the percent of companies beating consensus EPS forecasts and reassuring commentary from companies.
• Third, other things that jump out in our latest updates include strong outperformance by Large Cap Growth and growth-oriented sectors in April, the low-quality burst of leadership within Small Cap, and strengthening inflows to the US amid outflows from Europe

The big things you need to know:

• First, our 12-month S&P 500 price target remains 7,750, and we assume the index has put in a fragile, foggy bottom.
• Second, we run through our thoughts on what we’re hoping to learn more about in the upcoming reporting season.
• Third, other things that jump out include how 2026 EPS growth forecasts for most sectors have been frozen since the start of the war, and the decline in consumer expectations for stock market performance over the next 12 months.

The big things you need to know:

• First, the tactical indicators we’ve been tracking to gauge when equity investors’ fears may have gone too far continue to show signs of significant deterioration but are not yet pointing to extreme fear suggesting more downside in stocks remains possible in the near term.
• Second, other things that jump out include new stress tests on our valuation/EPS model, the latest C-suite tone, the signals from our US GDP model for the S&P 500 if consensus forecasts start to erode, and evidence of derisking in equities in the latest funds flows data.

The big things you need to know:

1. First, we review our key takeaways from our review of March company commentary on the Middle East conflict on EPS calls and in conference presentations. What we read adds to our understanding of why the US equity market has been fairly resilient since the Iran strikes, and also leads us to believe that it may simply take more time for the equity community to fully understand the impacts from an extended conflict.
2. Second, other things that jump out this week include much better EPS estimate revisions trends in the top-10 market cap names in the S&P 500 than the rest of the index (a point in favor of mega cap Growth stocks continuing to outperform), the sharp drop in investor sentiment on our AAII model (a bullish data point for the broader market) and the return of the Russell 2000 FY2 P/E to its long-term average (important progress but not a return to “hold your nose and buy” territory).

The big things you need to know:

1. First, in tandem with the 5% decline in the S&P 500, investor and consumer sentiment have slipped in recent updates as investors have digested the possibility of a longer conflict in Iran and consumers have started to notice higher gas prices.
2. Second, we review our macro takeaways from RBC’s Financial Institutions conference, where we detected echoes of the lingering confidence and emerging concerns that are seen in the surveys we discuss.

This week, we are excited to bring you a special edition of the podcast, a recording of a panel done by Lori Calvasina (Head of US Equity Strategy), Helima Croft (Head of Global Commodity & MENA Research), and Frances Donald (Chief Economist, Royal Bank of Canada) on March 10th, 2026, at the RBC Financials conference in NYC.

The team discussed recent events in the Middle East and the implications for the US economy and stock market, and was moderated by Brian Sullivan of CNBC.

The big things you need to know:

1. First, we review the results of a survey we conducted of RBC’s equity analysts on the conflict in Iran, which helps explain the resilience we’ve seen in the S&P 500.
2. Second, the valuation and sentiment barometers we’re tracking point to room for further downside in the S&P 500 in the near-term in absolute terms, while our work on US valuations vs. other global developed markets highlights why the US equity market has been embraced as a safe haven, helping outperformance versus global peers to re-ignite.