RBC's Markets in Motion

The big things you need to know:

• First, we think the recent pick up in 10-year yields raises the risk of a tier 1 (5-10%) pullback in the S&P 500 in the short-term, but does not alter our longer-term constructive view on the S&P 500.
• Second, it was business as usual at the RBC Health Care conference last week in terms of company commentary.
• Third, other things that jump out from our latest updates include a move up in the median NTM P/E for the biggest market cap names in the S&P 500 (which also adds to risk of a near-term pullback).

The big things you need to know:

• First, the investors we met with this past week, in our trip to London and Switzerland, were keen to explore other opportunities in US equities beyond Semis/Tech/AI, but had difficulty envisioning what those were.
• Second, we highlight continued outperformance of high price momentum in our factor work and what we’re seeing in our valuation work for this part of the market, a pick up in the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500 as reporting season slows down, and the signal we’re currently getting from S&P 500 and Russell 2000 forward P/Es – things are moving up but aren’t universally back to their 2025 and early 2026 highs.

In this special cross over edition (originally recorded for the RBC Capital Markets Macro Minutes podcast), Lori joins Blake Gwinn, Head of RBC Capital Markets US Rates Strategy in a conversation on US equities, US rates, and the Fed.

What we discuss:

Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine the complacency narrative through both an equity and rates lens, unpacking whether risk assets are fully pricing the range of Iran conflict outcomes or looking past risks that haven't fully materialized yet. We also dig into what a Warsh-led Fed means for forward guidance, dissent, and market volatility, and what the shifting policy backdrop means for how investors position across equities and rates.

The big things you need to know:

• First, we have lifted our 12-month-forward S&P 500 price target to 7,900, which represents a 7.7% gain from the May 7th close. In adjusting our forecast, we are focusing on our valuation/EPS model, which does the best job of baking in a two-speed economy and earnings backdrop.
• Second, on bigger-picture positioning, we continue to prefer Growth over Value, US over non-US, and like Small Caps (but not as much as Large Cap Growth).
• Our sector views are mostly unchanged, but we have lowered Health Care to market weight from overweight. Third, we run through the strong stats from 1Q26 reporting season.

The big things you need to know:

• First, US equity market valuations are on the rise, but don’t look topped out yet. We remain constructive on the US equity market in the year ahead, recognizing that the path may not be linear.
• Second, last week’s earnings reports continued to point to resilient outlooks with a dose of caution fueled by a strong start to the year, highlighted challenges to consumer resiliency in restaurants and travel but otherwise a reiteration of the cautious but stable theme, and alluded to a complex web of buffers in place for companies regarding the impact of the war in Iran for a period of time.
• Third, things that jump out in our other updates include a sharp spike in company references to geopolitics in April, a stall in investor sentiment last week, and a pick-up in betting market expectations for a split Congress in the midterms.

The big things you need to know:

• First, the three things that stuck out to us in our review of earnings calls last week included outlooks that emphasized resiliency but contained a dose of caution, the conversation on Iran war impacts (present and future) getting underway, and descriptions of cautious but stable consumers.
• Second, with US equities breaking out to a new 2026 high relative to non-US equities, we note that valuations suggest there’s room for this trade to run and that weak earnings revisions breadth is not a problem unique to the US.
• Third, funds flows are shifting back to Financials and Growth, which we think makes sense from a valuation and earnings growth perspective.

The big things you need to know:

• First, our analysts were generally constructive aside from the war.
• Second, our survey results reiterate the idea that the US is seen as a safety trade due to greater war resiliency, and that Europe does not necessarily present as a better alternative despite the potential for the US to lag if/when war fog clears.
• Third, we review the most interesting sector tidbits from the survey.

The big things you need to know:

• First, despite the strong rebound in the US equity market, investor sentiment remained subdued last week. This signals to us that there is room for US equities to run and climb a wall of worry.
• Second, 1Q26 reporting season got off to a strong start last week, evidenced by a sharp pickup in the percent of companies beating consensus EPS forecasts and reassuring commentary from companies.
• Third, other things that jump out in our latest updates include strong outperformance by Large Cap Growth and growth-oriented sectors in April, the low-quality burst of leadership within Small Cap, and strengthening inflows to the US amid outflows from Europe

The big things you need to know:

• First, our 12-month S&P 500 price target remains 7,750, and we assume the index has put in a fragile, foggy bottom.
• Second, we run through our thoughts on what we’re hoping to learn more about in the upcoming reporting season.
• Third, other things that jump out include how 2026 EPS growth forecasts for most sectors have been frozen since the start of the war, and the decline in consumer expectations for stock market performance over the next 12 months.

The big things you need to know:

• First, the tactical indicators we’ve been tracking to gauge when equity investors’ fears may have gone too far continue to show signs of significant deterioration but are not yet pointing to extreme fear suggesting more downside in stocks remains possible in the near term.
• Second, other things that jump out include new stress tests on our valuation/EPS model, the latest C-suite tone, the signals from our US GDP model for the S&P 500 if consensus forecasts start to erode, and evidence of derisking in equities in the latest funds flows data.