The big things you need to know:

• First, consensus expectations for 2026 are inching up for S&P 500 EPS in a broad based way, a positive data point for the stock market but a slight one.
• Second, net bulls on the AAII survey have moved up sharply, and formally entered a less robust forward return environment last week.
• Third, the seasonal playbook reminds us that in recent years June and July have tended to be strong for the S&P 500 but that the transition into fall has been tricky with declines often seen in the August – October time frame.