Macro Minutes

US policy uncertainty is sky high. Global investors own a lot of US assets, mostly unhedged currency exposure, and the natural implication is that the collision of large exposures and elevated uncertainty could have a large impact on global capital flows, asset markets, and currency hedging activity.

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Strategies promising to remove human emotion from investing were once niche. Now a growing number of institutions are finding them valuable. Where will QIS go next?

Participants:

• Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA
• Solenn Le Floch (Desk Strategy), Managing Director, Global Markets Solutions
• Akilesh Eswaran (Desk Strategy), Global Head of QIS and EMEA Head of Equity Trading
• Samkit Tated (Desk Strategy), Director of QIS Structuring.

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered 25bps rate cuts at their latest meetings but with very differing messages. Whereas the RBA delivered a ‘very dovish’ cut the BoE was much more cautious and in this episode we unpack the reasons for that differing approach and what it means for each going forward.

Participants:

• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Canadian federal election produced the third straight Liberal minority government. The pre-election campaign incorporated sizable new fiscal measures. In this episode we unpack what it means for the economy, Bank of Canada policy, issuance, and the rates market.

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Today we break down the trade war, the dollar, equities, rates, earnings season, and what it all means for markets—plus a quick dive into Treasury refunding.

Participants:

• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

It is a unique time for economies and financial markets - political decisions are increasingly driving economic outcomes and asset markets rather than the other way around. Today's episode unpacks what it means for US & Canada and the implications for equity markets.

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Today is 11-April-2025 and my name is Peter Schaffrik. We have labelled this edition ‘Chaos Theory’ and I trust most listeners do not need and explanation as to what inspired us. Market swings have been very large on the back of the back and forth in the tariffs culminating in a 90 day pause being announced this week. Helping us to bring some order into the chaos, I am joined by Blake Gwinn, RBC’s head of US rates strategy and Elsa Lignos, Head of FX strategy.

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

A twin resurgence is reshaping European financial markets. Bank equities and AT1 bonds are both surging—can the momentum last?

Participants:

• Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA
• Anke Reingen (Desk Strategy), Global Co-Head of Financials Research
• Marc Sanchez Roger (Desk Strategy), Head of European Financials Credit Sector

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Explore how Trump's policies are reshaping global defense. Experts from RBC Capital Markets analyze the economic and strategic shifts in UK, European, and US defense spending.

Participants:

• Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Chief European Macro Strategist
• Ken Herbert (Research), Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The butterfly effect is where a change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. Indeed, US trade policies are having significant intended and unintended consequences for various countries that is impacting fiscal policy and politics and potentially and monetary policy and the bond market.

Participants:

• Jason Daw(Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts