With key central bank meetings due over the coming weeks at the same time, as economic sentiment data is weakening, the question of 'How Long Will It Take?' until rate hikes feed through into the real economy has become more prominent again lately. Meanwhile, the very same question is also asked in China, with the opposite effect in mind. In this episode, we preview the upcoming rate decisions and add our thoughts on the 'how long' question.

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Simon Deeley  (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Alvin T. Tan (Desk Strategy), Asia FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

A number of global fixed-income markets have broken higher as central banks are still left to deal with tight labor markets and core inflation that is not falling fast enough for comfort. Can the sell-off continue, overcoming lingering fears of an economic slow-down or will yields quickly pull back down into old ranges?

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Michael Reid (Desk Strategy), US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Groundhog Day was a film about the same day repeating itself over and over, which has some parallels to what is happening in markets - policy rates higher, curves flattening, equities unfazed, and USD-CNY marching higher. Will this cycle continue or be short-circuited? That probably depends on what market or country you are talking about.

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Alvin T. Tan (Desk Strategy), Asia FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Hiking cycles are extending or re-starting later in 2023 than many expected for the BoC and Fed, with the terminal points heavily dependent on the evolution of data in the near term. The BoE is similarly very data dependent, while the ECB looks set to extend its cycle further. Developed market economies have generally "outperformed" in the first half of the year, with expected weakness failing to materialize in hard data (so far).

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Adam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Debt ceiling negotiations turned out to be a lot less dramatic than many had anticipated – still to come are congressional votes – but once the smoke clears we’re left facing down the back half of the year with many of the questions investors had in January not much closer to being answered – it looks like we have seen peak headline inflation but core is proving to be stickier than many had anticipated. That has led to a reassessment of the policy outlook for the back half of the year – we discuss updated views on the Fed, BoE, ECB, BoC and RBA. The other side of the story is a buoyant equity market, seemingly impervious to hikes getting priced out. That may be puzzling or frustrating for macro investors but we discuss how the under-owned right tail in equities may signal more pain to come.

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Analyst
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Robert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Amy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Debt limit talks are ongoing in Washington, with financial markets already jittery on US banking concerns amid restrictive policy stances across many developed markets. Recent ECB speakers have generally noted they expect further hikes, while the BoE left the door open in its data dependent stance. BoC communication over the last month has emphasized that another hike is very possible and any talk of cuts is premature. How close "to the limit" will central banks take policy?

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We have a number of major central banks meeting these next two weeks, including the RBA last night, the FOMC, ECB, later this week, and the BOE next week. While each of these institutions may be facing slightly different circumstances, it’s likely that all are nearing a decision point within the next meeting or two, where they have to decide whether to keep pushing against high inflation or trust that they have already delivered enough tightening to sustainably redirect inflation back to target levels. That debate may be framed by the tension between backward and forward looking frameworks. Or more specifically do you rely on backward looking data, which generally shows that inflation is still uncomfortably elevated and labor markets remain tight, or trust more forward looking, model driven forecasts that would suggest pent-up lagged effects and tightening in credit conditions due to banking stress, are already enough to pull inflation back to target?

Participants:

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Gerard Cassidy (Research), Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics)
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Rate volatility continues to be elevated, with policy rate expectations swinging around as determining the terminal rate and what happens afterwards is proving complicated. The unwinding of banking sector concerns accelerated into a more meaningful sell-off and rate hikes continued from most major central banks.

Participants:

• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist,
• Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Analyst,
• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy) - Senior UK Economist,
• Alvin T. Tan (Desk Strategy) - Asia FX Strategist,
• Lori Calvasina (Research) - Head of US Equity Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The last week felt much calmer than anything experienced since the SVB and CS induced turmoil over the prior weeks. Volatility is much reduced, credit spreads are tighter and primary markets are re-opening again. Can this last and what are the lingering implications for markets and the economy from the March volatility?

Participants: 

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Sean Taor (Debt Capital Markets), Head of European DCM and Syndicate
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

It might be an overly simplistic argument, but in hindsight it should not be surprising that aggressive Fed rate hikes broke something in financial markets. Policy actions to ring fence the problems have been fast and furious but can all the kings horses and all the king's men, put dislocated markets back together again?

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Nicola Dransfield (Desk Strategy), European financials credit strategist
• Adam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts