Central banks are going full throttle to fight inflation by delivering outsized rate increases over multiple meetings. Their job isn't over, and more policy tightening should be forthcoming over the next few months. As they try to find the level of rates that is sufficient to contain inflation, it leads to a high possibility of over-tightening and recession. There are wild times ahead for the bond market and other asset classes. Stay tuned.

Participants:

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Gordon Scott (Research), Australia Economics & Fixed Income
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Adam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Many G10 central banks have moved policy rates to a neutral policy setting and are set to send them into restrictive territory with further super-sized rate hikes. Meanwhile, the late-coming ECB is contemplating an accelerated tightening path in the near-term as natural gas and power prices skyrocket due to supply concerns from Russia. How high can policy rates go and when will this cycle end for different central banks?

Participants:

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The bond market overreacted to inflation fears in June and yields overshot on the topside. July was a complete reversal (and some) as growth fears escalated and yields overshot on the downside. Bond market volatility should remain high until there is better clarity on inflation, central bank terminal rates and how deep the impending recession will be, and this will continue to impact all asset class.

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Central banks are full throttle on rate increases in a throwback to the early 1980's inflation fighting era. The ultimate end game of current central bank policy will be recession. Will this surprise anyone? How quickly will it happen? And what does it mean for financial markets?

Participants: 

• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Startegy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Jason Daw (Desk strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The weather isn't the only thing heating up; North American central banks are expected to deliver large rate increases in July and the ECB should hike for the first time since 2011, while August should see sizeable rate hikes in the UK and Australia. Will the heat from rate hikes suffocate economies and markets?

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Startegy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Adam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We continue in an ebb and flow between market focus on inflation and growth risks, with the latter taking more prominence in recent sessions as concerns that a recession is coming spike. With inflation still not having peaked and central bank concerns on inflation expectations elevated, is such a shift too soon?

Participants: 

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategy
• Daniel Rico (Desk Strategy), Latin America FX Strategist
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S Equity Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

After markets started to shift attention towards growth risks, hawkish central banks and still elevated inflation have re-focused attention on inflation risks and spiked volatility once again. RBC's rates, FX and volatility experts discuss the specifics and implications of recent developments.

Participants: 

• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Amy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Robert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Markets have sharply reserved course. Is this the start of a new trend, a consolidation phase, or just a pause before past trends resume? In this episode, RBC’s rates, FX, equity, and credit experts opine on this critical topic.

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy
• Adam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading
• George Davis (Desk Strategy), Chief Technical Strategist, FICC

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Amy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Central banks Strike Back! There are clear parallels (rates vol, inflation uncertainty, aggressive central bank tightening) to the early 1980's when Volcker raised rates at all costs to control inflation. In this episode, RBC experts opine on the macro landscape, fixed income, currencies, and credit markets.

Participants: 

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief AU Economist
• Daria Parkhomenko (Trading), FX Strategist
• Adam Cole (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts