Election 2026

Former Labour Leader Phil Goff and Former National Minister Maurice Williamson join Tim Beveridge to review the 2026 Election. 

The guys discuss what the staggeringly low party vote for both National and Labour says about public opinion. 

Opportunity looks like it could be kingmaker, but would they work with NZ First after comments made by Michael Laws? 

And several high-ranking National Party ministers have lost their seats, how will this effect coalition negotiations? 

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One former National Party head is confident the coalition will secure a second term, despite the race being tight.

Preliminary results give National, ACT and New Zealand First 67 seats, while Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Māori won 57 seats.

Simon Bridges says the most likely outcome from all this is the continuation of the current Government, but the special votes are yet to be counted.

"Even if they muck things around a bit, I still think - yeah, continuation of the current Government."

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Former broadcaster and now ACT MP Paul Henry believes there's no regrets, as a move to Wellington looks likely.

ACT is currently sitting on 10.92 percent, giving it 13 seats based on provisional results - with Henry 4th on the party list.

He says he'll be doing a great disservice if he changes his mind now.

"There's no room for second thoughts, or I would have just completely wasted my time, wouldn't I? There's a huge job to be done." 

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Former United Future leader Peter Dunne believes the National, ACT and New Zealand First partners will tolerate Opportunity if needed.

Dunne expects parties will hold informal talks in coming weeks - while special votes are counted, for a final result.

But he recommends the newcomers avoid formal arrangements.

Dunne says Opportunity could stay on the cross-benches, and offer a confidence and supply agreement.

"Their big task is not to reform the world at the moment, their big task is to ensure their political survival in three years time."

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In the morning after the election, Trish Sherson from Sherson Willis PR and Child Fund CEO Josie Pagani recapped what we know so far, given the narrow election race.

Do we consider this a win for the right bloc, or is it too early to tell? 

Does National need to reach out to Opportunity to form a new Government, or is it just an insurance policy? 

Do we see Chris Luxon hanging on to the National leadership role, regardless of how this all shakes out?

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Labour's Michael Wood is quietly confident he'll get back Auckland's Mount Roskill seat - from National's Carlos Cheung.

Wood is narrowly leading on preliminary results.

He says special votes could see his margin increase.

"There's actually the possibility that that number moves out a little bit more in our favour, but let's just hold fire."

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Senior National MP Mark Mitchell admits the campaign to engineer an overhang distracted from the party's campaign. 

Preliminary results give National, ACT and New Zealand First 67 seats, Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Māori 57 and Opportunity 7 seats. 

The Electoral Commission estimates almost 400,000 special votes are still to come.

National's overhang gives it no list MPs, putting Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith and Chris Bishop out of Parliament. 
 
Mitchell says they'll be a big loss.

"It just felt like we were sort of campaigning against weird campaigns like that throughout the whole campaign. Without a doubt, the split vote campaign was a big distraction." 

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Former Labour leader Phil Goff hasn't given up on the prospect of a left-wing Government, despite last night's preliminary results.

The data shows that the right bloc currently has a clearer path to getting into Government, but there's still 400,000 special votes to be counted.

Goff says New Zealand needed a decisive vote - and the nation didn't get it.

"We won't know, actually, until the 27th of November - or maybe even a little bit later, if there's a vote recount ordered. We won't know for another three weeks what the actual result is." 

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David Seymour says he's stoked ACT secured a record-high party vote for the third election in a row.

The provisional results have the party on 10.9 percent, giving them 13 seats so far.

But the ACT leader says the only thing that's certain now is that nothing will be clear for another three weeks.

"We might not be in Government, and you've still got this Opportunity thing, you've still got this confusion about how their constitution works - if they want to go with us will they be allowed to?"

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New Zealand First is celebrating the party's 12 seats on last night's preliminary tally.  

Deputy leader Shane Jones says anything could happen at this stage, but he doesn't think it's likely they'll have to talk to Opportunity. 

"Let's face it, the Opportunity Party has done a fantastic job at seducing the opinion makers and the newsroom culture and the media of New Zealand."

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