Looking ahead, this week is shaping up as a very busy one with some extremely important events taking place across markets. The Federal Reserve decision in the US will be the highlight, with the first interest rate cut of this cycle (and the first in more than four years) looming. While a 0.25% cut seems assured, markets are ascribing a 35% chance of a larger, 0.50% cut. Here in New Zealand we’ll get the results of another dairy auction, as well as economic growth figures for the June 2024 quarter. Will these figures still look recessionary, and just how bad will they be?