The New Zealand economy has contracted (on a per capita basis) for nine of the last 12 quarters, making for a deep and lengthy recession. This has inevitably weighed on the performance of local investments. Other countries have had a much better time of it, and there have been some excellent opportunities for strong investment returns of late. They just haven't been here in Aotearoa. This really highlights the need to ensure your investments are globally diversified.

What a week! The S&P 500 index rose 1.2% to fresh highs last week, buoyed by solid economic indicators and the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve since last year. The Russell 2000 (a US small-cap index) was up for a seventh straight week, while credit spreads tightened to levels last seen in 1998. Here in New Zealand, we saw a very weak GDP report, that's got people talking about a 50-basis point OCR cut in October.

Gold continues to be a hot topic of conversation across financial markets, with the precious metal rising almost 40 per cent so far in 2025 and hitting fresh record highs. Here's what you need to know if you're thinking about adding the shiny stuff to your portfolio.

The Federal Reserve will be the clear highlight this week, with markets expecting a resumption of the easing cycle that has been on hold all year. Here in New Zealand, the key release will be the GDP report for the June quarter.

There's hope emerging that our economy is turning a corner. Is that possible with so much bad news still around? As always, whether your glass is half-full or half-empty depends on where you're looking, and what you're paying most attention to. We should expect more negative headlines in the months ahead, starting with the upcoming GDP report. However, keep in mind that some indicators tell us more about what’s in the rear view mirror than what’s ahead.

France will be in the spotlight early in the week, with a confidence vote being held on Monday in the National Assembly. The key event of the economic calendar will be the US CPI report for August, due Thursday, ahead of the Federal Reserve decision next week. The central banking highlight will be the ECB interest rate decision, where markets expect a hold.

New Zealand‘s long awaited economic recovery has been delayed, rather than cancelled. Most of us fix our mortgages, so when the OCR falls or banks reduce mortgage rates we don’t benefit from those lower costs right away. A steady stream of borrowers moving onto lower rates will hopefully boost activity and spending, putting businesses in a stronger position and giving them the confidence to grow, hire and invest.

It's a holiday-shortened week in the US with markets closed for Labor Day on Monday, although the economy will be in focus this week with the August jobs report, ISM indices and the Fed's Beige Book all due for release. We'll also be watching for any political fallout after President Trump’s tariffs were ruled illegal by a federal appeals court last week!

Three US stocks are now as big as four entire sectors. That’s not hyperbole, it’s the reality of today's market. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Apple together make up more than one-fifth of the S&P 500. To put that in perspective, it's more than the combined weight of the four traditional defensive sectors of the market - healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and real estate. What does this mean for investors, and should it concern us?

The reporting season continues across with Chorus, EBOS Group, Meridian Energy, Summerset and Port of Tauranga all due to report in New Zealand, while we'll hear from Coles, Woolworths, South32 and Wesfarmers across the Tasman. Internationally, NVIDIA will be in focus when its latest earnings are announced on Wednesday in the US.