The focus this week will remain on the Middle East, with US President Trump’s ten-day pause in attacks on Iran’s energy facilities set to expire on Monday. The key economic release is likely to be the CPI inflation report for March in the US, where annual inflation is expected to jump to a two-year high of 3.4%. Here in Aotearoa the main event will be the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decision on Wednesday afternoon. While no change to the OCR is expected, the tone and commentary of the statement (and press conference) will be of more interest.

The last month will have been disconcerting for investors, especially those new to financial markets. Some will be tempted to sell out, cutting their losses in case the conflict escalates and markets fall further. If you're a trader with a time horizon that’s measured in weeks or months, maybe that's the right approach. However, if your foray into share investing is part of a longer-term strategy you've got a more difficult decision to make.

The ongoing conflict in Iran will remain front and centre for investors, while another batch of economic indicators for March are released. The highest profile release will be the US jobs report, while we'll also get the ISM manufacturing index and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence. Here in New Zealand, the ANZ Business Outlook survey for March will be a highlight. A fall in sentiment is expected but it will also be useful to monitor how firms are thinking about the impact on costs and any plans to raise prices in response.

The conflict between the US and Iran has disrupted one of the world’s most important trade routes, the Strait of Hormuz. The impact of this will feed directly into local inflation, reversing some of our recent progress and reminding households that global events can still hit close to home. How will the Reserve Bank react to this, and are we set for early OCR hikes?

Global flash PMIs for March will be the key global releases this week, as some of the first economic indicators we’ll get that cover the period since the war began. Here In New Zealand, all eyes will be on RBNZ Governor Dr Anna Breman on Tuesday. She is scheduled to give a speech discussing the potential impacts of the conflict on the New Zealand economy.

With the election less than eight months away now, investors are increasingly starting to think about what it means for the economy, asset prices and their portfolios. The election campaign will no doubt be entertaining, with the usual twists and turns. However, there’s no need for a complete rethink of your investment strategy, nor should we let political uncertainty stop us taking action.

Central banks will be the key focus in the days ahead (outside of geopolitics), with interest rate decisions due from several major policymaking groups. The Federal Reserve in the US will be the highlight, while we'll also hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

The situation in the Middle East is moving very quickly and like any geopolitical event, it’s difficult to anticipate where it’ll go next. US crude oil prices surged 35.6 per cent last week and at the beginning of this week, prices jumped above US$100. What might this mean for inflation, interest rates and financial markets?

The Middle East will be the key focus in the coming week, as investors consider what a protracted conflict could mean for energy prices (both oil as well as natural gas), and in turn inflation, central bank policy settings, and economic growth.

One of the biggest talking points for investors in the past year or two has been the increasingly concentrated nature of the US sharemarket. The top ten stocks represent a whopping 38 per cent of the index today, compared with 20-30 per cent historically. A few mega-cap stocks now have a huge influence over where the world’s biggest market (and therefore most of our retirement savings) is headed and unsurprisingly, this has made a lot of investors nervous.