A few different balls are up in the air across the central banking world, and change is afoot. Recent declines in oil prices have seen the odds of OCR hikes change, while the Federal Reserve in the US has entered a new era with Kevin Warsh as Chair. We’ll get a useful sense check in a fortnight from the Reserve Bank, while the evolution of the Fed will be a longer-term theme to monitor.

Investors often ask us how worried they should be about rising government debt. It’s a very fair question, and Budget 2026 showed that New Zealand’s books remain under pressure. If you or I live beyond our means, borrow too much and can’t repay our debts, we’ll eventually run out of options. However, governments aren’t households and that’s an important distinction. How should investors think about what this means for their portfolios?

Central banks will be in focus this week, with the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision the highlight on Thursday morning (NZ time). As well as being Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as Chair, we'll also get a fresh Summary of Economic Projections from the Fed. Monetary policy decisions are also due in Australia, Japan and the UK.

SpaceX is about to become one of the largest listed companies in the world, with an estimated valuation of almost US$1.8 trillion. Whether this valuation is justified is an area of intense debate right now. Some see an extraordinary growth story spanning launch services, satellite communications and artificial intelligence. Others are questioning whether a company that is not yet profitable should command such a lofty price tag. However, the more interesting story is what the SpaceX IPO tells us about the way financial markets themselves are evolving.

It was a challenging end to the week on Wall Street, with the growth-heavy Nasdaq index falling 4.2% on Friday, its biggest daily decline since April last year. The S&P 500 index in the US fell 2.6% for the week, breaking a nine-week winning streak. Looking ahead, US inflation will be in the spotlight this week, with the CPI and PPI both due for release. These will come ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Wherever you go in the world, it’s very common for investors to have a home bias. People tend to anchor their portfolio with what they know, which is the local market. Kiwis will often have a healthy exposure to New Zealand shares, Australians usually start with what’s on the ASX, and Americans are renowned for not looking past their own borders. That can also feel like a safer approach, especially for newer investors. It’s not safer though, it’s much riskier.

US shares had another great month with the S&P 500 index rising 5.1% in May. However, only three out of 11 sectors were up for the month, with a 15.9% gain from the dominant tech sector driving the overall market up. Other markets were strong too, with emerging market shares continued their stellar run and rising 9.5% in May. That sees them up 24.8% year-to-date and up 49.7% in the past 12 months! The local NZX 50 finished May 2.6% higher, its first positive month in three and the strongest since September 2025.

We’ve seen a lot of economic releases over the last several weeks, but the most important of all were probably the two that covered inflation expectations. It might sound odd that what people think might happen trumps what’s actually happening across the economy, but right now that’s very much the case. Expectations matter because they influence behaviour, and behaviour drives outcomes. That’s especially so when it comes to inflation.

A massive week looms here in New Zealand. The RBNZ will deliver its latest policy decision on Wednesday and while there is only an outside chance of an OCR hike, markets expect the RBNZ to lay the groundwork for moves at the following meeting. A day later we'll get Budget 2026, which is shaping as a very challenging one to deliver in an election year.

The US sharemarket has had a great run of late, rebounding strong from the March lows and hitting fresh highs. The S&P 500 is now up more than eight per cent in 2026 (including dividends), and we're only a third of the way through the year. That's impressive, especially given the volatility we've seen lately. However, while the S&P 500 is getting all the headlines there's another quietly outperforming it, and by a wide margin.