The market reaction to Friday's Supreme Court decision on tariffs will be in focus this week, while President Trump is also set to deliver his State of the Union address on Tuesday. Thursday's ANZ Business Outlook for February will be the key release here in New Zealand, while a plethora of NZX companies are set to announce results in the days ahead. Further afield, investors will be watching earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce and Home Depot.

Inflation is well down from the multi-decade high of 7.3 per cent that prevailed a few years ago, but it remains stubbornly above that elusive two per cent level. We’re not the only ones grappling with pricing pressures, and there’s a growing chorus of commentators asking whether something more structural is at play. If three (or even four) per cent was new two per cent, what would this mean for investors?

A busy week looms, with the February Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) a clear highlight. The focus will be on the tone and how the Official Cash Rate (OCR) track differs from the November MPS. That had the first hike pencilled in for early 2027, although markets see it coming later this year. Will the RBNZ bring it forward to match?

The local reporting season kicks off this week across the NZX, and we’ll get some useful insights into the state of the economy. These will tell us if the long-awaited recovery is truly upon us, or if it’s another false start like we saw a year ago. Here's what we'll be watching and why.

It was a very volatile week for markets, with a strong rebound on Friday flattering returns from many asset classes and masking some of the weakness. Growth stocks have been hit hardest, with the software sector in particular facing a sharp sell-off. We've also seen big moves in precious metals and crypto. Which asset classes have been most resilient amidst the volatility, and what should investors be watching in the coming days?

The first month of the year is behind us and despite what feels like a year's worth of market drama, the US sharemarket posted another healthy gain. It rose 1.4 per cent in January, a very solid return that was above the 1.1 per cent average for all of the January's since 1950. That bodes well for the balance of this year, according to the "January Barometer".

Markets will continue to digest the news of Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair this week, while monetary policy decisions loom in the UK, Europe and Australia. It will be a holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand, with markets closed on Friday for Waitangi Day. Ahead of that, we'll get the results of another dairy auction as well as the December quarter labour force report. The international reporting season will be in full swing too, with more than 150 S&P 500 companies due to announce results.

There were plenty of lessons for investors in 2025, as is the case every time we close the book on a calendar year. However, there was one in particular that stood out, because if investors didn't do this they left some significant gains on the table.

There's plenty to watch this week, including the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year. However, investors will get the chance to refocus on what matters most for share prices, and that's corporate earnings. More than 100 S&P 500 companies are set to announce results, including four of the so-called Magnificent 7 cohort. We'll hear from Meta, Microsoft, Tesla and Apple this week, which collectively represent some 16% of the S&P 500 by size.

It’s been prediction season on Wall Street, with all the gurus consulting their crystal balls to firm up their forecasts for where the S&P 500 index will finish 2026. Let's take a closer look at how the market is expected to perform this year, how that compares with history, and how investors should think about these.