Central banks will be the key focus in the days ahead (outside of geopolitics), with interest rate decisions due from several major policymaking groups. The Federal Reserve in the US will be the highlight, while we'll also hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

The situation in the Middle East is moving very quickly and like any geopolitical event, it’s difficult to anticipate where it’ll go next. US crude oil prices surged 35.6 per cent last week and at the beginning of this week, prices jumped above US$100. What might this mean for inflation, interest rates and financial markets?

The Middle East will be the key focus in the coming week, as investors consider what a protracted conflict could mean for energy prices (both oil as well as natural gas), and in turn inflation, central bank policy settings, and economic growth.

One of the biggest talking points for investors in the past year or two has been the increasingly concentrated nature of the US sharemarket. The top ten stocks represent a whopping 38 per cent of the index today, compared with 20-30 per cent historically. A few mega-cap stocks now have a huge influence over where the world’s biggest market (and therefore most of our retirement savings) is headed and unsurprisingly, this has made a lot of investors nervous.

The S&P 500 index in the US fell slightly during February, dragged down by higher-growth and technology stocks. However, it was an extremely strong month for many other global markets and assets. Japanese shares surged 10.4%, while UK shares rallied 6.7% and emerging market equities were up 5.4%. The ASX 200 in Australia rose 3.7%, while the domestic NZX 50 index was up 2.2% in February, its strongest monthly rise since September.

It’s been a sluggish start to the year for the US sharemarket. The S&P 500 has also been more volatile of late, having fallen for five of the past eight weeks. It feels like it could be another bumpy year, especially with the US midterm elections ahead. We might even see a bigger sell-off in the months ahead. That’s not something to be afraid of, and it doesn’t mean the market can’t put in another solid performance.

The market reaction to Friday's Supreme Court decision on tariffs will be in focus this week, while President Trump is also set to deliver his State of the Union address on Tuesday. Thursday's ANZ Business Outlook for February will be the key release here in New Zealand, while a plethora of NZX companies are set to announce results in the days ahead. Further afield, investors will be watching earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce and Home Depot.

Inflation is well down from the multi-decade high of 7.3 per cent that prevailed a few years ago, but it remains stubbornly above that elusive two per cent level. We’re not the only ones grappling with pricing pressures, and there’s a growing chorus of commentators asking whether something more structural is at play. If three (or even four) per cent was new two per cent, what would this mean for investors?

A busy week looms, with the February Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) a clear highlight. The focus will be on the tone and how the Official Cash Rate (OCR) track differs from the November MPS. That had the first hike pencilled in for early 2027, although markets see it coming later this year. Will the RBNZ bring it forward to match?

The local reporting season kicks off this week across the NZX, and we’ll get some useful insights into the state of the economy. These will tell us if the long-awaited recovery is truly upon us, or if it’s another false start like we saw a year ago. Here's what we'll be watching and why.