Every once in a while, you hear talk of how much worse off you’d be if you’d missed the ten best days in a given period. It usually happens during a rough patch, in the hope it’ll calm investors down and ensure they stay the course rather than panicking and selling at precisely the wrong time. The numbers are always compelling, and it's admirable advice. However, there's one important point that is often missed.

Since 1900, US shares have returned 9.8 per cent per annum (including dividends). That’s a recipe for wealth generation and an excellent way to ensure your capital grows more than inflation (which has been just below three per cent per annum over that period). But here's the thing, the market rarely delivers an annual return anywhere near that long-term average. It’s usually some way above or below that!

With the midpoint of the year upon us, it’s been a mixed bag (and at times, a rollercoaster) for investors. Somewhat ominously, it feels like 2025 is just getting started. We’re at a crucial crossroads and there’s no shortage of key events looming in the months ahead.

Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will remain a focal point as investors watch for signs of further escalation. Central banks will also be in the spotlight, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled to testify to Congress, following last week's Fed decision. The economic highlights this week will be flash PMIs for June, which are out on Monday and will provide an important pulse check of the global growth picture.

There have been increasing concerns over “stagflation” risks in recent months, as economic indicators weaken and tariffs threaten to push inflation back up. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran - as well as its impact on oil prices - has added further risk to the outlook. What can we learn from periods like the 1970s, and is the threat of stagflation something investors should be worried about?

Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will be a focal point, as investors watch for any further escalation between Israel and Iran. The G7 Leader's Summit takes place in Canada early in the week, ahead of the NATO summit next week. It's also a very big week for central banks, with monetary policy decisions due in the US, UK and Japan. None are expected to adjust policy rates, although the tone and commentary will be important. There's plenty to watch in the coming days here in New Zealand, and the key release will be the March quarter GDP report on Thursday. Markets expect another steady print, and a result above Reserve Bank estimates could ensure the OCR remains on hold at the next meeting.

Analyst reports can be very helpful when gathering information and trying to learn about a company. However, investors should take a more holistic view when choosing which shares to include in (or leave out of) their portfolio, rather than relying heavily on the recommendations and target prices they might see in such reports.

Turning to the week ahead, the key economic release will be the May CPI report in the US, which is due overnight on Wednesday. Here in New Zealand, a steady stream of releases are due over the week including March quarter manufacturing figures, migration, and potentially a fresh housing report from the Real Estate Institute.

The latest UBS Global Family Office Report offers some fascinating insights into how the world's wealthiest families think about risk, time and opportunity. However, it's where they put their money that interests me most. At a very high level, the average asset allocation isn’t too dissimilar from that of a managed fund (in the growth category) or an individual investor with a comparable risk profile. There are some key differences though, with the most obvious being the 33 per cent allocation wealthy family offices have to alternative assets.

The last ten days or so have been very eventful. President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on the European Union before delaying it by five weeks, then the US Court of International Trade ruled that many of the tariffs are illegal anyway. That saw the Court of Appeal grant a temporary stay that leaves them in place while the case is considered, and Trump ended the by doubling the tariffs on steel imports! The S&P 500 still managed a healthy 1.9% gain despite all that, and it ended the month of up 6.2%, the strongest monthly gain since November 2023.