The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson tackle the persistent slowdown in property transactions as September sales volumes reveal a clear downward trend. With nine consecutive months of year-on-year declines, the buyers hold the pricing power, but high mortgage test rates and economic caution are keeping active participants on the sidelines. 

We also dive into the macroeconomic landscape, previewing the upcoming Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and discussing what the Selected Price Indexes mean for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision. To wrap things up on a high note, Nick shares his excitement (and frantic travel plans) for Northland’s historic NPC final appearance in Ōtautahi (Christchurch)!

• Read the 10-Year Growth Analysis: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-housing-market-may-be-entering-a-new-era-of-lower-price-growth
• Register for the Cotality Quarterly Webinar: Register now → 

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

Residential building costs have surged to their highest annual growth rate in three years, rising 4.8% over the last year. But with existing house prices flat to falling and listings at abundant levels, can the construction sector continue to absorb these mounting cost pressures?

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and a refreshed Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson (back from Hanmer Springs) dissect the newly released Q3 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI). They discuss why builders are shifting away from absorbing cost surcharges under fixed-price contracts, and how this sudden price pass-through could trigger a shift where buyers substitute new builds in favour of existing properties.

The team also dives into the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lending data, highlighting a noticaeble shift in borrower behaviour: one-year fixed mortgage rates have inceased in popularity from roughly 20% four months ago to 30% of new lending, taking market share away from three-year terms. They discuss why pricing dynamics - including one-year specials below 5.0% - and a desire for cash-flow flexibility are driving this shift. 

Finally, they explore why the 4.8% construction inflation rate places further upward pressure on the upcoming Q3 CPI release, increasing the likelihood of another RBNZ rate hike.

This week we discuss: 

• Q3 CCCI Breakdown: Why building costs rose 4.8% (above the 4.1% general inflation rate) and why this represents the fastest acceleration since mid-2023.
• Cost Pass-Through & Buyer Substitution: The risk that rising new-build pricing drives buyers back to the flat-to-falling existing housing stock.
• The One-Year Rate Surge: Why one-year fixed rates have increased to 30% of all new lending, while three-year terms have diminished in their appeal.
• The RBNZ OCR Path: Why the resilient construction pipeline and rising shipping costs are raising the probability of a October OCR increase.
• Bledisloe & Hanmer Springs Catch-ups: Nick's trip to the All Blacks experience and holding the actual Bledisloe Cup, the All Blacks’ Test masterclass, Kelvin’s forest drives in Hanmer Springs, and Bathurst drama.

 🔗 Read the full Q3 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) Report: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-home-building-costs-rise-at-fastest-pace-since-2022

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

National property values dipped another 0.3% in September, extending the softer winter trend across Aotearoa New Zealand. But is the market collapsing, or simply grinding through a long-planned transition?

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall (back from Rotorua) and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson (dialling in from Hanmer Springs) dissect the September Home Value Index results. They analyse why price declines are broadening into the secondary urban areas, while Christchurch and Hamilton continue to show minor resilience.

The team also makes the case for why property owners should stop anchoring their expectations to the artificial 2021 peak. Kelvin shares our latest analysis showing that only 4% to 5% of properties actually transacted during that brief bubble, and reveals why the 10-year annualised growth rate of 3.2% p.a. reflects the true "new normal" for capital growth - especially in supply-rich markets like Auckland (1.2% p.a.). Finally, they examine the August filled jobs data (+0.2%) and discuss the Treasury’s cautious property updates in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU).

This week we discuss: 

• September HVI Declines: Why national values fell 0.3% (-1.3% YoY) and why the downturn is now broadening into regional markets like New Plymouth, Palmerston North, and Napier.
• Ditching the 2021 Peak Anchor: Why peak-to-trough comparisons are irrelevant for 95% of property owners, and what the 10-year annualised national growth rate of 3.2% tells us about future gains.
• The Auckland Supply Case Study: How the Auckland Unitary Plan transformed the city's housing supply, holding average annual capital growth to just 1.2% over the last decade.
• Labour Market Resilience (+0.2%): Why filled jobs rose in August and how the difference between IRD tax records and the HLFS survey affects the official unemployment rate.
• The Treasury PREFU Briefing: Unpacking the government's cautious house price revisions and what they mean for projected tax revenues.
• Bledisloe & Holiday Catch-ups: Nick's family trip to Rotorua, Kelvin's hot pool retreat in Hanmer Springs, and the looming Bledisloe Cup clash at Eden Park.

 🔗 Explore the September Home Value Index: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-property-values-fall-for-sixth-straight-month-as-buyers-retain-upper-hand

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

August residential sales plunged nearly 12% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of annual transaction drops across Aotearoa New Zealand. With sales drifting and listings climbing, the market remains locked in an extended holding pattern.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the findings from Cotality’s latest Housing Chart Pack. They analyse why Hamilton sales dropped 14% across the winter quarter, how first-home buyers continue to dominate market share, and what is keeping the labour market from driving an immediate recovery.

The team also breaks down Labour’s major pre-election announcement ruling out changes to mortgage interest deductibility for residential landlords. Kelvin and Nick discuss why the justification - not wanting to give landlords an excuse to hike rents - misses the reality of tenant income constraints, and whether removing this tax threat will tempt investors back into the market. Finally, they review the August New Zealand Activity Index (+1.9%) and preview the upcoming Home Value Index release.

This week we discuss: 

• The 8-Month Sales Slide: Why August sales dropped 12% YoY and why the 3-month trend shows nationwide softness (Hamilton down 14%).
• Labour's Interest Deductibility Call: Unpacking the politics, coalition negotiations, and why landlords cannot simply pass tax costs onto rents.
• Investor Psychology: Will certainty around interest deductibility open the floodgates for property investors ahead of a Capital Gains Tax debate?
• NZ Activity Index (+1.9%): Why economic recovery remains patchy and why labour hoarding delays hiring rebounds until 2027.
• Home Value Index Preview: Why early weekly data points to another slight monthly national dip (-0.3%).
• Weekend Sports Drama: The Taniwha's heartbreaking Ranfurly Shield loss to Counties Manukau, Wallabies upsetting the Springboks, and epic NRL finals action. 

🔗 Download the latest Cotality Housing Chart Pack: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/monthly-housing-chart-pack-september-2026 

🔗 Track weekly property values with our Interactive HVI: https://www.cotality.com/nz/our-data/indices

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

National sales volumes have dropped for the eighth consecutive month - down nearly 12% year-on-year in August. But when you look past market share percentages to raw buyer transactions, a clear driver emerges: relocating owner-occupiers (movers) are choosing to hold back. While they still completed over 20,000 transactions in the last year, their activity has dropped by 1,500 to 2,000 deals compared to historical norms.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Buyer Classification raw numbers. They explain why cautious movers are keeping sales subdued, and why first-home buyers are surging near record volumes (25,000 purchases across a 90,000-transaction market).

The team also shares on-the-ground observations from their full-day development tour across Auckland with CBRE valuers, tackling the townhouse "oversupply" myth, developer cash-back incentives, and why the CRL is changing buyer calculus. 

Finally, they dive into the Q2 GDP numbers (+0.2% growth led by construction and manufacturing) and evaluate whether economic resilience makes an October 28 OCR rate hike more than a 50/50 bet.

This week we discuss:

• The Mover Pullback: Why relocating owner-occupiers are taking a breather, dropping 1,500 to 2,000 annual deals while still completing 20,000+ purchases.
• First-Home Buyer Boom in Context: How FHBs secured 25,000 purchases out of 90,000 total sales - approaching peak-boom volumes.
• Auckland Field Tour Insights: Key observations from touring master-planned communities (Tāmaki Regeneration, Flat Bush) with CBRE valuers.
• Townhouse Oversupply Debunked: Why well-located, two-story developments are thriving while narrow three-story legacy builds struggle.
• Q2 GDP Rebound (+0.2%): How construction, manufacturing, and wholesaling helped the economy avoid contraction.
• October OCR Odds Rising: Why resilient GDP growth and sticky fuel inflation could push the RBNZ to hike rates on October 28.
• Weekend Sport: Kelvin docking lambs in Canterbury, heartbreak for the Warriors, and the Taniwha going top of the NPC ladder!

 🔗 Read Kelvin's Buyer Classification Pulse Article: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-buyer-breakdown-which-groups-are-behind-the-sales-volume-decline 

🔗 Watch Nick's 5-Minute Monthly Video Summary: Cotality NZ Monthly Property & Economic Update - September 

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

The latest suburb-level data confirms that the housing market's gentle downward drift is highly widespread, with approximately 79% of house suburbs and 74% of townhouse suburbs recording value drops over the three months to September.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss Cotality’s newly released Mapping the Market interactive data. They outline the sharp geographical splits - where Auckland and Wellington suburbs sit firmly at the bottom of the pile, while farming-backed hubs in Canterbury, Southland, and Otago continue to show structural resilience.

The team also looks ahead to Thursday's highly anticipated Q2 GDP release. With the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) marking its 14th consecutive month above neutral expansion and the services sector (PSI) edging back into growth at 51.2, the guys discuss whether a surprisingly resilient economy gives the RBNZ a green light to hike the OCR again sooner rather than later.

This week we discuss:

• Mapping the Market Suburb Release: Why nearly 80% of suburbs saw declines, and how to use the interactive map to compare townhouses versus standalone homes.
• The Regional Agrarian Shield: Why farming economies are keeping southern suburbs buoyant while services-heavy Auckland and Wellington soften
• Economic Green Shoots: Analyzing the 14th consecutive month of PMI expansion (+50.0) and the PSI’s return to positive territory at 51.2.
• Q2 GDP Preview: Why major bank forecasts of a +0.1% to +0.3% lift show the economy is weathering geopolitical headwinds better than expected.
• OCR October vs. December: Will a resilient GDP track encourage the RBNZ to implement a pre-election rate hike on October 28?

🔗 Explore the interactive Mapping the Market map: https://www.cotality.com/nz/press-releases/regional-affordability-shines-in-flat-nz-housing-market 

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

The August Cotality Home Value Index is out, showing a -0.4% monthly decline across Aotearoa New Zealand—marking the fifth consecutive month of value contraction. However, looking at property purely through the lens of the "fall from the peak" might be completely skewing our view of the market.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the August data. They explore why looking at the 10-year compound annual growth rate (+3.4% per year) offers a much more realistic picture of the "new normal" for capital gains, while stripping out the artificial post-COVID boom and bust.

The guys also break down why Auckland apartments plunged -7.8% over the past year compared to just -2.2% for standalone houses, why dwelling consents keep defying gravity (hitting a 3-year high of 41,000 annually), and review the major trading banks' reactions to last week's 2.75% OCR decision. Plus, Father's Day debriefs, scorched almonds, and the All Blacks' test in Johannesburg.

This week we discuss:

• August HVI Breakdown: Why values fell -0.4% in August (down -1.0% YoY), led by weakness in Te Whanganui-a-Tara / Wellington (-0.6%) and Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland (-0.5%).
• The 10-Year Growth Benchmark: Why the 10-year average annual growth rate of 3.4% represents the true baseline for long-term property performance.
• Property Type Divide: The stark split in Tāmaki Makaurau, where apartments dropped -7.8% over the past year while standalone houses fell only -2.2%.
• Construction Defies Gravity: Why July dwelling consents rose 10% YoY (41,000 annual running total) despite rising supply and cost pressures.
• The Bank Consensus on OCR: How ANZ, ASB, Westpac, BNZ, and Kiwibank interpreted the RBNZ's measured 25bps hike to 2.75%.
• Weekend Sports Wrap: All Blacks fall short in the Ellis Park cauldron, Father's Day rowing sessions, and Northland's upcoming Shield defence against Waikato.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lifted the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. While the hike brings monetary policy closer to a neutral setting, the tone of the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement was distinctly cautious and data-dependent.

In this special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the RBNZ’s decision just 40 minutes after its release. They break down the consensus vote, analyse why a 4-to-2 committee split on inflation risks led to the hike, and explain why an October rate rise looks far less likely with the general election looming.

The guys also dive into the Reserve Bank's detailed economic forecasts - including flat house price projections for the next 3 to 4 quarters - and explain why fixed mortgage rates are unlikely to see a sudden spike off the back of this decision.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

Property sales volumes have fallen for the seventh consecutive month, drifting down 6% year-on-year in July. Yet amidst the broader market slowdown, first-home buyers are executing an aggressive counter-cyclical surge—capturing a record-breaking 29% market share.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall (dialling in from his car outside Hamilton following Northland's historic Ranfurly Shield defence) and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the newly released July Housing Chart Pack. They analyse why buyers maintain total pricing power with listing inventory elevated, and why annual sales are tracking closer to 90,000 rather than the 100,000 anticipated earlier this year.

The guys also deliver a comprehensive preview of Wednesday’s pivotal Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision. Kelvin breaks down the latest economic indicators—including the NZ Activity Index (+2.6%), filled jobs (+0.3%), and steadying business confidence—and explains why another 25-basis-point OCR hike appears locked in. Plus, an impassioned debrief on the Taniwha defending the Ranfurly Shield in Whangārei and the All Blacks' test in Johannesburg.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

After years of national hand-wringing, housing affordability in New Zealand has officially returned to long-term averages. Falling house prices, lower interest rates, and rising wages have combined to bring the value-to-income ratio back down to 6.7 - exactly where the historical average has sat since 2004.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the highly anticipated 6-monthly Housing Affordability Report. They discuss why mortgage servicing now takes up 40% of median household income, why years to save a deposit has dropped to 8.9 years, and why regional data paints vastly different pictures for centres like Wellington versus Tauranga.

The guys also dive into the latest macroeconomic data - including softer inflation and a slight lift in card spending - and explain why "good news is bad" when it comes to the Reserve Bank’s upcoming OCR decision. Plus, Nick delivers a passionate wrap-up of an unforgettable weekend of rugby, from the Taniwha claiming the Ranfurly Shield to the All Blacks' epic win at Ellis Park.

This week we discuss:

• Affordability Returns: Why all four major housing affordability measures are finally back to (or below) long-term historical averages.
• The Mortgage Burden: How servicing a new mortgage at an 80% LVR now requires 40% of gross household income.
• Regional Nuance: Why Wellington is now the most affordable main centre, and why Tauranga’s numbers are skewed by wealth over income.
• Macro Data Mix-Up: How softer price indices and slightly stronger card spending impact the upcoming OCR call.
• The 'Good News is Bad' OCR Dilemma: Why an improving economy might just give the RBNZ the confidence to hold or hike rates again.
• Rugby Wrap: The Taniwha's historic Ranfurly Shield win, the All Blacks at Ellis Park, and the Warriors topping the NRL table.

 🔗 Read the full Housing Affordability Report:  https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-housing-affordability-returns-to-long-term-norms-as-buyers-reap-the-benefits

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.