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In this episode, Kelvin Davidson hosts Gerard Burg, Head of Research in Australia, to discuss the global economic environment, differences and similarities between Australia and New Zealand, and their impacts on the housing markets. They explore recent monetary policy actions, supply chain issues, and geopolitical risks affecting energy and construction sectors.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week’s episode explores the sluggish start to 2026, where a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP result meets a growing sense of sales fatigue. Nick and Kelvin break down why the movers are the key to the next price cycle and how the Reserve Bank might navigate the worst-case scenario of stagflation.

Is the New Zealand property market hitting a crescendo of sluggishness? Following a strong end to 2025, the first two months of 2026 have seen sales volumes dip by 7-8% year-on-year. In this episode, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on whether this is a temporary timing issue or the start of a more sustained slowdown.

We also dive into the Q4 GDP undershoot (0.2% vs. the RBNZ's 0.5% forecast) and what it means for interest rate stability. Plus, we address direct listener feedback on the trap of using averages and why the movers in the market are currently paying a 2% premium over first-home buyers.

This week, Nick and Kelvin discuss: 

• The sales slump: Why January and February were softer than expected and why our 100k annual sales forecast might be dialed back.
• The mover premium: New research showing that second-and-third-home buyers are paying 2% more relative to CV than first-home buyers.
• GDP reality check: Why the Q4 undershoot provides a silver lining for those hoping for lower-for-longer interest rates.
• The Iran ripple effect: Exploring second-round inflation and why the Reserve Bank is in its absolute worst-case position.
• Rental market weakness: Why the stock measure of rents is at its lowest annual change in nearly 20 years.
• Averages vs. case studies: A response to listener Carl Horne on the limitations of median data.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Q4 Affordability Report is out, and the data shows a significant shift in the New Zealand housing market. After four years of adjustments, key measures of affordability are returning to long-term averages - but as geopolitical tensions rise, will this recovery be cut short?

This week, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on how to interpret these "normalising" figures and what the latest migration turnaround means for rental demand. They also tackle the uncomfortable economic ripple effects of the ongoing Middle East conflict and what it might mean for the Reserve Bank’s next move.

In this episode, Nick and Kelvin discuss:

• The affordability reset: Why mortgage payments as a proportion of income have finally hit the 20-year average.
• Regional winners: Auckland and Wellington’s surprising status as "below average" for debt servicing costs.
• The rental challenge: Why renters are still facing a "28% burden" and how new migration arrivals could add pressure.
• Migration momentum: Analysing the net gain of 23,000 and the easing of departures.
• Geopolitical inflation vs. growth: The "petrol tax" on households and the risk of a medium-term recessionary impact.
• RBNZ watch: Is a November OCR hike now a "lock", and could it move even sooner?

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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A surprise 0.2% rise in national property values meets a shifting global landscape. Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse how geopolitical tensions could force the Reserve Bank's hand.

In this episode, the research desk tackles the unexpected 0.2% rise in the February Home Value Index. While an upturn always starts somewhere, the significance of this month is its broad-based nature - with every main centre, including Auckland, seeing growth simultaneously for the first time in nearly a year. 

However, a new global uncertainty has arrived. We break down the domestic fallout from the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, including the immediate petrol price shock and how it acts as a direct tax on Kiwi households. We also discuss the flight to safety in financial markets and what a falling NZ dollar means for our inflation outlook.

This week, we discuss:

• The February Index Surprise: Why growth in Auckland, Christchurch, and Dunedin suggests a new market phase. 
• The Geopolitical Inflation Risk: How shipping costs and oil prices could impact the next OCR decision. 
• The Exchange Rate Factor: Understanding the flight to safety and its impact on importing costs. 
• Market Resilience: Analysing the 15% year-on-year rise in dwelling consents and the labour market trough. 
• Affordability Preview: Key themes ahead of this Wednesday’s full Q4 report release.  

Links mentioned in the show:

• February HVI
• Housing Affordability Report (Available Wednesday 11 March 2026)
• Kelly Eckhold on Middle Eastern conflict

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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January’s lending data has landed, and while the crazy peak of December has passed, the underlying numbers reveal a market that is far from quiet. 

In this week's Monday morning yarn, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive into a return to normality for New Zealand lending. After the bank-switching surge of late 2025, January's figures show a billion-dollar increase over the previous year, signaling a resilient start to 2026. But the real story isn't just the volume - it’s who is taking the debt and how they are structuring it. 

This week, Nick and Kelvin break down:

• The LVR Appetite Shift: Why first-home buyers are increasingly comfortable operating outside the 20% deposit norm, with a record 57% of FHB loans now done at low-deposit levels. 
• Investor Re-engagement: A look at the tick-up in low-deposit investor lending (now at 3%) and what this tells us about the willingness of investors to increase debt despite high holding costs. 
• The Repricing Strategy: Why 30% of all existing mortgage debt is now fixed for at least 12 months - the highest level in years - as borrowers position themselves for a rising interest rate environment. 
• Non-Performing Loans: The surprising data on pockets of trouble (or the lack thereof) and why mortgagee sales haven't spiked despite the economic climate. 
• Woman and Property Report 2026: A deep dive into the Knowledge Gap, where 16% of women report not knowing where to start in property - triple the rate of their male counterparts.
• Generational Sustainability: Why Gen Z is leading the charge on energy upgrades and the financial hurdles that remain for older homeowners. 

Why This Matters for You

Understanding the January Reset is critical for anyone planning their 2026 property moves. As the market shifts away from the December chaos, we are seeing the emergence of a new normal where first-home buyers have the ascendancy and investors are cautiously testing the limits of loosened LVR speed limits. 

Whether you are navigating the serviceability trap or looking for a window of opportunity in the current flat-patch, this episode provides the research-led perspective you won't find in the headlines.

Links mentioned in the show:

• Latest Chart Pack
• Special IWD Guest Episode: Featuring Nicole Ferguson, National Director for Loan Market NZ. 
• Woman and Property Report 2026

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Cotality Head of Research Nick Goodall interviews Nicole Ferguson, National Director of Loan Market NZ to celebrate International Women's Day 2026. 

Nicole shares her journey from Australia to New Zealand, her leadership experiences, and insights on gender equity in the property and finance industries. 

We explore challenges faced by women, the importance of confidence and curiosity, and the future of sustainable housing and AI in finance, with reference to the 2026 Cotality Women & Property report.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week, following the release of the Cotality Monthly Chart Pack for February, Nick and Kelvin discuss recent sales data, regional buyer trends, and economic indicators. 

They explore the impact of timing on market activity, regional disparities, and the influence of economic recovery on housing demand following the RBNZ MPS and OCR hold from last week.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to hold the official cash rate at 2.25%.  

They analyse the economic forecasts, including GDP growth and inflation expectations, and explore the implications for the housing market. 

The conversation highlights the balance between caution and optimism in the current economic climate, with a focus on upcoming economic indicators and their potential impact on monetary policy.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the economy, focusing on monetary policy, net migration trends, and lending data. 

They analyse the implications of the Reserve Bank's upcoming monetary policy statement and the recent Cotality Pain and Gain report for Q4 2025, which highlights the profitability of property resales.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the housing market as reflected in the Cotality Home Value Index for January 2026.

They analyse the mixed signals from the economy, including the recent increase in the unemployment rate and its implications for the housing market (it is not all bad).

The conversation also touches on regional variability in property performance and the outlook for upcoming economic reports and events.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.