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The Q1 2026 Pain and Gain Report is officially live, revealing the clear signals of a buyer's market. While 88% of property resellers still walked away with a gross profit, the share of properties selling at a loss has ticked up to 12% - driven heavily by short hold periods and a challenging apartment sector.

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the stark reality of the 4-year median hold period for loss-makers compared to the 10-year safety net for profitable sales. We also look at the April Selected Price Indexes data, discuss Nick’s onstage debate with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr regarding the necessity of a July OCR hike, and track the quiet turnaround in net migration figures.

This week we discuss:

• Q1 Pain and Gain Report: Why gross profits have fallen from a peak of $440,000 down to a median of $285,000.
• The hold period reality: The mathematical proof that buying at the 2021 peak and selling in 2026 guarantees a tough result.
• Apartment vulnerability: Why 41% of apartments resold at a loss during the quarter.
• April price indexes: Understanding why domestic price segments are softening even as diesel and petrol spike.
• The July OCR debate: Nick outlines the demand destruction argument that suggests the RBNZ should hold fire.
• Migration & rents: Net migration climbs back to almost 25,000, adding steady structural demand to a highly volatile rental market.
• Investor anxiety: Anecdotal feedback from Auckland on interest deductibility and long-term cash flow fears.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The latest Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report is out, and the data is a clear win for those entering the market. With a 27.5% market share, FHBs are near record levels, but the real story is what they are buying - 77% are securing standalone houses, up from just 70% a few years ago.

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson dive into the devil in the detail of the Q1 labour market stats. Why did unemployment drop to 5.3% despite a loose labour market, and what does the Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) tell us about the $100 million cashback war of late 2025?

This week we discuss:

• FHB Report Q1: Why FHBs are getting more house for their money and why the average age has dropped to 35.
• 81% LVRs: The Westpac data confirms that low-deposit lending is the engine room for first-time buyers right now.
• Labour Market Surprise: Analysing the 5.3% unemployment rate and why contained wage growth is actually good news for OCR timing.
• The FSR Breakdown: The RBNZ’s take on sustainable house prices and the cost of the bank cashback wars.
• OCR Debate: Nick previews his Devil's Advocate session with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr.
• Personal Wrap: A shout-out to Sky Sports’ Jeff McTainsh and a victory for the Phoenix Women.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report May 2026

In this special guest episode Kelvin Davidson is joined by Satish Ranchhod from the Westpac Economics team to discuss the latest co-branded First Home Buyer Report.

They cover off the Iran conflict, the implications for NZ's economy, inflation, and interest rates, then what it might all mean for first home buyers.

Lately FHBs have remained a dominant force in the property market, accounting for high shares of transactions, and also getting 'more house for their money' - supported by a soft market, plenty of listings, and low deposit lending allowances at the banks.

Indeed, Westpac's own data shows that the average LVR has recently gone above 80%, while the average FHB age has dipped a little.

Ultimately, it's a continued good news story - and FHBs still have reason for optimism in the coming months too.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The April Home Value Index (HVI) results are in, and while the national median technically rose by a modest 0.1%, the broader picture is one of a flattening market. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson peel back the layers on the regional divide - why are Auckland and Wellington softening while Christchurch and Invercargill continue to climb?

We also dive into a surprising dose of 'hopium' from the March economic data. With filled jobs up 0.3% and the NZ Activity Index (NZAC) hitting its fastest growth in over three years, we ask if the economy is showing more resilience than expected, or if these are simply lagging indicators of a pre-conflict world.

This week, we discuss:

• April HVI results: The national median is up 0.1%, but regional variability is the real story.
• The regional divide: Why Auckland’s supply pipeline and Wellington’s 'vibe' shift are weighing on values compared to the farming-backed strength of the south.
• March economic resilience: Filled jobs grew by 0.3%, and the NZAC rose 3.2% - could Q1 GDP be stronger than the RBNZ expects?
• Labour market preview: Why we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4% this week.
• RBNZ watch: A preview of Wednesday’s Financial Stability Review (FSR) and the ongoing quest for transparency.
• First home buyer report: A teaser for our upcoming release with Westpac, including surprising data on buyer ages.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Q1 2026 CPI data is finally in, landing at a ho-hum 3.1%. While it’s technically above the target band, the market has already moved on to the next big question: exactly when will the RBNZ hold its nerve no longer and lift the OCR?

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the inflation stats and why July vs September is the current 50/50 bet for the first rate hike. 

We also dive into the latest Chart Pack data showing a soggy 4% year-on-year drop in sales volumes for the quarter, and respond to a listener request for a dedicated rural property market roundup.

This week we discuss:

• Q1 CPI data: Why 3.1% was exactly what the market expected and why the calm before the storm remains the theme for the beginning of 2026.
• OCR timing: July or September? We look at the data gaps facing the Monetary Policy Committee in their upcoming meetings.
• Soggy sales volumes: Breaking down the 4% quarterly decline in transactions and what it says about buyer/seller capitulation.
• Lending rule speculation: Could the RBNZ use LVR or DTI settings as a relief valve while the OCR stays high?
• Rural roundup: A deep dive into agricultural debt, input costs vs output prices, and why farm sales might actually be looking up.
• Te Kaha stadium: Kelvin reports back from the opening Super Round at Christchurch's new world-class venue.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Wellington is drying out after a night of torrential rain, but the economic data remains heavy. 

This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the March Buyer Classification data, which shows first-home buyers (FHBs) holding a record 27–28% of the market. 

We also look at the measured return of smaller investors and why movers are currently staying put.

With the Q1 CPI inflation data due tomorrow, we analyse the latest monthly price indices that show a massive spike in fuel costs - including a 40% jump for diesel in March alone. 

We discuss what this "uncomfortable" inflation means for the RBNZ and the growing potential for the OCR to move sooner than expected.

This week, we discuss:

• FHB record share: Why first-home buyers are thriving on low-deposit allowances and KiwiSaver.
• Investor comeback: The rise of the MPO 2s ('Mum and Dad' investors) as lower interest rates reduce weekly mortgage top-ups.
• The fuel spike: March data showing petrol up 20% and diesel surging over 40%.
• CPI preview: Why the market is creeping forward expectations for an OCR increase.
• Rental floor: Analysing jumpy rent data and whether we’ve reached the bottom.
• Sales volumes: Why 2026 has had a soggy and sluggish start for transactions.

Monthly video

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the Q1 2026 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI). While cost growth remains relatively controlled at 1% for the quarter, building costs are now 30% higher than they were in March 2020. 

We discuss why this controlled growth might be short-lived as global supply chain disruptions and transport cost hikes begin to flow through the industry.

We also analyse the latest RBNZ mortgage lending data, which reveals a massive shift in borrower behaviour. As the market prices in potential OCR hikes, New Zealanders are rapidly moving away from floating and short-term fixes in favour of two and three-year terms.

This week, we discuss:

• CCCI results: Cost growth accelerated slightly to 1% in Q1 (3% annually), but remains below the long-term average of 4%.
• The level vs growth gap: Why build costs feel expensive despite lower inflation rates - levels are now 30% higher than pre- oandemic. 
• Construction industry health: Dwelling consents have risen to an annual total of ~37,500, signalling a robust recovery despite regional differences.
• Mortgage lending trends: 55% of new lending is now fixed for longer than 12 months, with the two-year rate becoming the most popular choice at 31%.
• The OCR outlook: Why the market expects the RBNZ to act sooner than previously thought to combat "second round" inflation risks.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, but with inflation forecasts shifting to 4.2% for June, the wait and see period has a very clear focus on rising costs.

In this special reactionary episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down today’s Reserve Bank (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Review. While the decision to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% was widely expected, the focus has shifted to the Bank's updated inflation outlook and the impact of the newly announced two-week ceasefire in Iran.

We discuss how the RBNZ is balancing the risk of a stuttering economy against the potential for rising wages and transport costs to keep inflation higher for longer. With the June quarter inflation forecast now sitting at 4.2%, we look at what this means for the timing of any future moves and the immediate outlook for mortgage holders.

This week, we discuss:

• The OCR decision: Why the 2.25% hold was the only move for today.
• Ready to move: The RBNZ’s signal that they won't hesitate to act if they see price increases becoming embedded.
• Revised inflation forecasts: Breaking down the shift from 2.7% to 4.2% for the June quarter.
• Interest rate strategy: Why the bottom for mortgage rates is likely behind us and what to consider when your fix comes up.
• The election year factor: Could the Government step in with fiscal support if the economy enters another recession?

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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March data confirms a property market upturn was underway - but global second-round inflation risks may have just drawn a line in the sand.

In this episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the March Home Value Index, which saw a second consecutive 0.2% rise in national property values. While momentum was clearly building in Christchurch, Dunedin, and Invercargill through the first quarter, the escalating conflict in the Middle East has shifted the narrative toward cautionary gaps and a potential reversal of these gains.

We also preview tomorrow’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Review. With business and consumer confidence plummeting, will the Reserve Bank stay focused solely on sticky inflation, or will the growing risk of a real economy recession force a change in tone?

This week we discuss:

• The March HVI: Why Christchurch and Dunedin are outperforming Auckland and Wellington.
• Momentum vs. Volatility: Why March’s growth might be the last hurrah before geopolitical uncertainty takes hold.
• The RBNZ Preview: What to expect from the first policy review under a new Governor and the importance of uncertainty in their messaging.
• Labour Market Resilience: Why the rising unemployment rate is currently a story of labour force growth rather than mass job cuts.
• Construction Costs: A teaser for tomorrow's Q1 CCCI release and why the calm before the storm is ending.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode, Kelvin Davidson hosts Gerard Burg, Head of Research in Australia, to discuss the global economic environment, differences and similarities between Australia and New Zealand, and their impacts on the housing markets. They explore recent monetary policy actions, supply chain issues, and geopolitical risks affecting energy and construction sectors.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.