The NZ Property Market Podcast

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August residential sales plunged nearly 12% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of annual transaction drops across Aotearoa New Zealand. With sales drifting and listings climbing, the market remains locked in an extended holding pattern.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the findings from Cotality’s latest Housing Chart Pack. They analyse why Hamilton sales dropped 14% across the winter quarter, how first-home buyers continue to dominate market share, and what is keeping the labour market from driving an immediate recovery.

The team also breaks down Labour’s major pre-election announcement ruling out changes to mortgage interest deductibility for residential landlords. Kelvin and Nick discuss why the justification - not wanting to give landlords an excuse to hike rents - misses the reality of tenant income constraints, and whether removing this tax threat will tempt investors back into the market. Finally, they review the August New Zealand Activity Index (+1.9%) and preview the upcoming Home Value Index release.

This week we discuss: 

• The 8-Month Sales Slide: Why August sales dropped 12% YoY and why the 3-month trend shows nationwide softness (Hamilton down 14%).
• Labour's Interest Deductibility Call: Unpacking the politics, coalition negotiations, and why landlords cannot simply pass tax costs onto rents.
• Investor Psychology: Will certainty around interest deductibility open the floodgates for property investors ahead of a Capital Gains Tax debate?
• NZ Activity Index (+1.9%): Why economic recovery remains patchy and why labour hoarding delays hiring rebounds until 2027.
• Home Value Index Preview: Why early weekly data points to another slight monthly national dip (-0.3%).
• Weekend Sports Drama: The Taniwha's heartbreaking Ranfurly Shield loss to Counties Manukau, Wallabies upsetting the Springboks, and epic NRL finals action. 

🔗 Download the latest Cotality Housing Chart Pack: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/monthly-housing-chart-pack-september-2026 

🔗 Track weekly property values with our Interactive HVI: https://www.cotality.com/nz/our-data/indices

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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National sales volumes have dropped for the eighth consecutive month - down nearly 12% year-on-year in August. But when you look past market share percentages to raw buyer transactions, a clear driver emerges: relocating owner-occupiers (movers) are choosing to hold back. While they still completed over 20,000 transactions in the last year, their activity has dropped by 1,500 to 2,000 deals compared to historical norms.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Buyer Classification raw numbers. They explain why cautious movers are keeping sales subdued, and why first-home buyers are surging near record volumes (25,000 purchases across a 90,000-transaction market).

The team also shares on-the-ground observations from their full-day development tour across Auckland with CBRE valuers, tackling the townhouse "oversupply" myth, developer cash-back incentives, and why the CRL is changing buyer calculus. 

Finally, they dive into the Q2 GDP numbers (+0.2% growth led by construction and manufacturing) and evaluate whether economic resilience makes an October 28 OCR rate hike more than a 50/50 bet.

This week we discuss:

• The Mover Pullback: Why relocating owner-occupiers are taking a breather, dropping 1,500 to 2,000 annual deals while still completing 20,000+ purchases.
• First-Home Buyer Boom in Context: How FHBs secured 25,000 purchases out of 90,000 total sales - approaching peak-boom volumes.
• Auckland Field Tour Insights: Key observations from touring master-planned communities (Tāmaki Regeneration, Flat Bush) with CBRE valuers.
• Townhouse Oversupply Debunked: Why well-located, two-story developments are thriving while narrow three-story legacy builds struggle.
• Q2 GDP Rebound (+0.2%): How construction, manufacturing, and wholesaling helped the economy avoid contraction.
• October OCR Odds Rising: Why resilient GDP growth and sticky fuel inflation could push the RBNZ to hike rates on October 28.
• Weekend Sport: Kelvin docking lambs in Canterbury, heartbreak for the Warriors, and the Taniwha going top of the NPC ladder!

 🔗 Read Kelvin's Buyer Classification Pulse Article: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-buyer-breakdown-which-groups-are-behind-the-sales-volume-decline 

🔗 Watch Nick's 5-Minute Monthly Video Summary: Cotality NZ Monthly Property & Economic Update - September 

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The latest suburb-level data confirms that the housing market's gentle downward drift is highly widespread, with approximately 79% of house suburbs and 74% of townhouse suburbs recording value drops over the three months to September.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss Cotality’s newly released Mapping the Market interactive data. They outline the sharp geographical splits - where Auckland and Wellington suburbs sit firmly at the bottom of the pile, while farming-backed hubs in Canterbury, Southland, and Otago continue to show structural resilience.

The team also looks ahead to Thursday's highly anticipated Q2 GDP release. With the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) marking its 14th consecutive month above neutral expansion and the services sector (PSI) edging back into growth at 51.2, the guys discuss whether a surprisingly resilient economy gives the RBNZ a green light to hike the OCR again sooner rather than later.

This week we discuss:

• Mapping the Market Suburb Release: Why nearly 80% of suburbs saw declines, and how to use the interactive map to compare townhouses versus standalone homes.
• The Regional Agrarian Shield: Why farming economies are keeping southern suburbs buoyant while services-heavy Auckland and Wellington soften
• Economic Green Shoots: Analyzing the 14th consecutive month of PMI expansion (+50.0) and the PSI’s return to positive territory at 51.2.
• Q2 GDP Preview: Why major bank forecasts of a +0.1% to +0.3% lift show the economy is weathering geopolitical headwinds better than expected.
• OCR October vs. December: Will a resilient GDP track encourage the RBNZ to implement a pre-election rate hike on October 28?

🔗 Explore the interactive Mapping the Market map: https://www.cotality.com/nz/press-releases/regional-affordability-shines-in-flat-nz-housing-market 

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The August Cotality Home Value Index is out, showing a -0.4% monthly decline across Aotearoa New Zealand—marking the fifth consecutive month of value contraction. However, looking at property purely through the lens of the "fall from the peak" might be completely skewing our view of the market.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the August data. They explore why looking at the 10-year compound annual growth rate (+3.4% per year) offers a much more realistic picture of the "new normal" for capital gains, while stripping out the artificial post-COVID boom and bust.

The guys also break down why Auckland apartments plunged -7.8% over the past year compared to just -2.2% for standalone houses, why dwelling consents keep defying gravity (hitting a 3-year high of 41,000 annually), and review the major trading banks' reactions to last week's 2.75% OCR decision. Plus, Father's Day debriefs, scorched almonds, and the All Blacks' test in Johannesburg.

This week we discuss:

• August HVI Breakdown: Why values fell -0.4% in August (down -1.0% YoY), led by weakness in Te Whanganui-a-Tara / Wellington (-0.6%) and Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland (-0.5%).
• The 10-Year Growth Benchmark: Why the 10-year average annual growth rate of 3.4% represents the true baseline for long-term property performance.
• Property Type Divide: The stark split in Tāmaki Makaurau, where apartments dropped -7.8% over the past year while standalone houses fell only -2.2%.
• Construction Defies Gravity: Why July dwelling consents rose 10% YoY (41,000 annual running total) despite rising supply and cost pressures.
• The Bank Consensus on OCR: How ANZ, ASB, Westpac, BNZ, and Kiwibank interpreted the RBNZ's measured 25bps hike to 2.75%.
• Weekend Sports Wrap: All Blacks fall short in the Ellis Park cauldron, Father's Day rowing sessions, and Northland's upcoming Shield defence against Waikato.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lifted the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. While the hike brings monetary policy closer to a neutral setting, the tone of the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement was distinctly cautious and data-dependent.

In this special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the RBNZ’s decision just 40 minutes after its release. They break down the consensus vote, analyse why a 4-to-2 committee split on inflation risks led to the hike, and explain why an October rate rise looks far less likely with the general election looming.

The guys also dive into the Reserve Bank's detailed economic forecasts - including flat house price projections for the next 3 to 4 quarters - and explain why fixed mortgage rates are unlikely to see a sudden spike off the back of this decision.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

Property sales volumes have fallen for the seventh consecutive month, drifting down 6% year-on-year in July. Yet amidst the broader market slowdown, first-home buyers are executing an aggressive counter-cyclical surge—capturing a record-breaking 29% market share.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall (dialling in from his car outside Hamilton following Northland's historic Ranfurly Shield defence) and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the newly released July Housing Chart Pack. They analyse why buyers maintain total pricing power with listing inventory elevated, and why annual sales are tracking closer to 90,000 rather than the 100,000 anticipated earlier this year.

The guys also deliver a comprehensive preview of Wednesday’s pivotal Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision. Kelvin breaks down the latest economic indicators—including the NZ Activity Index (+2.6%), filled jobs (+0.3%), and steadying business confidence—and explains why another 25-basis-point OCR hike appears locked in. Plus, an impassioned debrief on the Taniwha defending the Ranfurly Shield in Whangārei and the All Blacks' test in Johannesburg.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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After years of national hand-wringing, housing affordability in New Zealand has officially returned to long-term averages. Falling house prices, lower interest rates, and rising wages have combined to bring the value-to-income ratio back down to 6.7 - exactly where the historical average has sat since 2004.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the highly anticipated 6-monthly Housing Affordability Report. They discuss why mortgage servicing now takes up 40% of median household income, why years to save a deposit has dropped to 8.9 years, and why regional data paints vastly different pictures for centres like Wellington versus Tauranga.

The guys also dive into the latest macroeconomic data - including softer inflation and a slight lift in card spending - and explain why "good news is bad" when it comes to the Reserve Bank’s upcoming OCR decision. Plus, Nick delivers a passionate wrap-up of an unforgettable weekend of rugby, from the Taniwha claiming the Ranfurly Shield to the All Blacks' epic win at Ellis Park.

This week we discuss:

• Affordability Returns: Why all four major housing affordability measures are finally back to (or below) long-term historical averages.
• The Mortgage Burden: How servicing a new mortgage at an 80% LVR now requires 40% of gross household income.
• Regional Nuance: Why Wellington is now the most affordable main centre, and why Tauranga’s numbers are skewed by wealth over income.
• Macro Data Mix-Up: How softer price indices and slightly stronger card spending impact the upcoming OCR call.
• The 'Good News is Bad' OCR Dilemma: Why an improving economy might just give the RBNZ the confidence to hold or hike rates again.
• Rugby Wrap: The Taniwha's historic Ranfurly Shield win, the All Blacks at Ellis Park, and the Warriors topping the NRL table.

 🔗 Read the full Housing Affordability Report:  https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-housing-affordability-returns-to-long-term-norms-as-buyers-reap-the-benefits

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Property resellers are feeling the squeeze. In Q2 2026, 13% of New Zealand properties sold for a loss - a significant shift from the peak of the market where losses were practically zero. However, the data reveals a stark contrast based on one critical factor: how long you hold the property.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive deep into the latest Q2 Pain & Gain report. They unpack why the median hold period for properties selling at a profit has hit a record high of 10.4 years, while those selling at a loss were typically held for just 4.3 years (purchased right at the market peak).

The guys also break down regional and property-type disparities, explaining why Auckland is seeing higher loss ratios (20.9%) compared to Wellington (18.4%), heavily driven by the apartment sector. Plus, Kelvin clarifies the latest net migration figures - unpacking the difference between New Zealand citizen departures and net new arrivals, and why this is keeping rental growth surprisingly subdued.

This week we discuss:

Q2 Pain & Gain Realities: Why 13% of properties are now selling at a loss, and how stricter credit controls prevented a GFC-style slump.

The 10-Year Golden Rule: The record-high 10.4-year median hold period for profitable sales versus the 4.3-year danger zone.

Auckland's Apartment Drag: Why flats and apartments are driving Auckland's loss ratio up to 20.9%, and the yield vs. capital growth trade-off.

The Migration Misconception: Breaking down the 17,500 net migration figure - including net 37,500 NZ citizens leaving versus net 55,000 new migrants arriving.

Rental Market Squeeze: How low household creation (people staying flatting or with parents) is holding rents down despite population growth.

Affordability Preview: A sneak peek at the upcoming housing affordability report and how dropping interest rates are shifting the dial.

🔗 Read the full Q2 Pain & Gain Report

🔗 Watch the latest Monthly Video Update

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in Q2 2026 - the highest level in over a decade. However, beneath the headline number lies an encouraging trend for the residential property market: total employment actually expanded, meaning the unemployment jump was driven by an expanding labour force rather than mass job destruction.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Q2 labour market data. They examine why insulated homeowner employment is keeping non-performing loans and mortgagee sales at near-record lows, alongside a striking North-South Island economic divide where North Island unemployment sits at 6.0% compared to just 3.7% in the South Island. 

The guys also break down Kelvin’s latest analysis of Reserve Bank mortgage lending data. They cover why 50% to 60% of first-home buyers continue to secure low-deposit finance, the ongoing borrower shift toward two-year fixed mortgage terms, and why interest-only lending remains strictly controlled despite broader economic headwinds. 

This week we discuss:

• Q2 Labour Market Breakdown: Why 5.6% unemployment is driven by growing labour supply rather than job destruction. 
• Housing Market Immunity: How steady employment among existing homeowners prevents non-performing loans and forced sales. 
• Regional Labour Disparities: The North Island (6.0%) versus South Island (3.7%) unemployment divide, led by Northland (8.8%) and Auckland (6.5%). 
• Reserve Bank Lending Trends: Key takeaways from mortgage data, including active refinancing and low interest-only volumes. 
• Mortgage Term Shifts: Why borrowers are increasingly locking in two-year fixed rates as interest rate insurance. 
• September 2nd OCR Runway: How subdued wage growth (2.0%) impacts Reserve Bank inflation expectations ahead of the upcoming OCR statement. 

🔗 Read Kelvin’s latest Pulse article on RBNZ lending data: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/mortgage-lending-trends-10-things-to-know-right-now

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

Is Australia on the verge of an extended New Zealand-style property slump, or will structural differences across the ditch protect the Aussie market?

In this special Trans-Tasman edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief NZ Economist Kelvin Davidson are joined by special guest Tim Lawless, Executive Research Director at Cotality Asia Pacific (celebrating nearly 20 years with the firm).

Together, the team conducts a thorough comparison of the post-COVID housing cycles in New Zealand and Australia. They explore why NZ values experienced a sharper 40% boom followed by a prolonged -17% drawdown, while Australia’s market rebounded rapidly off the back of a chronic physical housing deficit.

The panel compares key macro settings, including NZ’s 90% fixed-rate mortgage structure versus Australia’s 60%+ variable debt, mortgage servicing burdens pushing 50% of income in Australia versus easing to 37% in NZ, and the potential impacts of Australia's recent federal budget tax adjustments to negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT).

This week we discuss:

• Boom & Bust Trajectories: Comparing NZ’s 40% post-COVID surge and -17% fall with Australia’s 25% peak and swift recovery.
• Mortgage Debt Mechanics: Why NZ’s 90% fixed-rate debt delays monetary pass-through while Australia’s variable market (~6.2% rates) feels immediate rate shocks.
• Affordability Ceilings: Analysing mortgage serviceability burdens in Australia (pushing 50% of pre-tax income) versus NZ (peaked at 50%, now eased to 37%).
• Physical Supply Disparity: How NZ’s townhouse boom reduced housing shortages while Australia faces severe ongoing supply deficits.
• Tax Policy & Negative Gearing: What Australia's budget changes mean for investor demand and whether Aussie capital will flow to NZ.
• Key Trans-Tasman Lessons: What Australian buyers and policymakers can learn from NZ’s extended multi-year property adjustment.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.