The NZ Property Market Podcast

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After a quick run through the release of the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report for Q3, Nick and Kelvin ponder the potential impact of the US election result and Donald Trump's return to the Whitehouse.

Then, there's the relatively inconsequential (to RBNZ's liking) Financial Stability Report to digest as well as the important official Labour Market statistics for Q3, which were better than expected on the surface but a bit of devil in the detail to be mindful of. 

There were also some very interesting changes in the terms being chosen by mortgage holders in September to analyse. 

Plus, how about those All Blacks?!

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After running through the highlights of the latest CoreLogic Home Value Index results for October, Nick and Kelvin delve into all the relevant data, assessing the state of our economy and business sector.

There's filled jobs data, highlighting the weakness across the labour market, detailed by @MusicalChairs14 on a twitter thread and discussed by the guys. 

Kelvin also took the time to delve into the latest release from the Xero Small Business Insights showing ongoing declines in sales and increases in firms downsizing their workforce.

Things don't look great from a business perspective, however there's reason for optimism when analysing the ANZ business confidence survey, in particular expectations of future activity and inflation.

A lot to take on board, and that's without considering the detail within each of the above releases when it comes to the construction industry, alongside signs building consents may be at or approaching a respectable trough.

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Coming to you prior to the long Labour Weekend, Nick and Kelvin review all the property and lending data from the week.

Starting with a focus on property investors, following the release of the CoreLogic Monthly Chart Pack where Kelvin highlighted the upwards trend in sales to multiple property owners, as well as the RBNZ lending data showing investors taking on a greater share of lending above 65% LVR.

The other (unexpected) meaty piece of content to get stuck into was the Reserve Bank Governor's speech in the US, which Nick reviews and picks out a few quotes to help guide expectations for the next OCR review (and MPS) on November 27. Is a 75 basis point cut really a possibility?

The rest of the round up includes other insights from the chart pack (first home buyers) and lending data (interest only lending), the NZ Activity Index for September, rounding out Q3 in anticipation of official GDP data (in about 6 weeks!) and a surprise hit to consumer confidence.

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Following the release of the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q3, Nick and Kelvin the state of the construction market, including a few reasons to be optimistic, though it's fair to say caution should still remain.

A quieter week for data also allows the guys to provide an update on what's happening from a listings perspective - both for sale and for rent, plus there's a usual economic round-up (PSI, card sales) and REINZ sales and HPI to digest.

Plus, a final wrap of the CPI inflation data which was released and discussed in an extra podcast last week.

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In this quick podcast Nick and Kelvin give their reaction to the just-released CPI inflation data for Q3.

Headline inflation is now within the target band of 1-3% but there's plenty of detail and nuance to discuss, including the breakdown of tradeable to non-tradeable and the upside and downside risks of what's to come. 

Perhaps most importantly, what could it mean for the next OCR decision on November 27? Is a 75 basis point cut on the cards?

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This week, Nick chats to Logan Reardon from Loan Market Auckland.

Logan has experienced a meteoric rise in the lending world as he's become an elite advisor in little more than 5 years in the industry. Logan has amassed a dedicated team in a very short time period - all tasked with getting the best result for their clients. 

Logan isn't afraid to touch on difficult discussion points either, such as the conversation with those unfortunate first home buyers who bought at the peak, or someone engaging an off-the-plan built that's decreased in value through the build. 

Nick and Logan delve into all that, and more, including the market reaction to the latest OCR cut, how different property types affect buyer power and expectation, the impact of the 'market chain' and how multi-banking is so important for investors.

Logan can be contacted on [email protected]. 

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Befitting it's importance the RBNZ MPR and OCR review leads the podcast once again. With a few more days to digest the decision the conversation turns to the potential impact to the property market and what the next decision might be - is a further 0.75% really on the cards?

Of course it's all down to inflation, which puts this Wednesday's CPI data for Q3 firmly in the spotlight. A drop from previous 3.3% is almost guaranteed but where will the annual rate land in comparison to the RBNZ's forecast of 2.3%?

Meanwhile there's plenty other data releases to digest, from CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for September through to Stats NZ rental price information.   

Check out Kelvin's article on the latest lending stats too. 

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The Reserve Bank has followed through on what ‘the markets’ and bank economists were expecting, with a 0.50% OCR cut today.

Inflation is considered to already be back in the target range (official data due Tuesday 16th) and the economy is weak, with the RBNZ noting we have ample spare capacity in NZ.

Check out today’s reactionary pod for Nick and Kelvin’s take on the decision.

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This week it's a special edition guest PLUS Monday data round up.

Along with Kelvin, Nick welcomes Richard Vaughan, Regional Director at Opteon Solutions to the pod. 

As Nick is fresh off a family holiday in Rotorua, he offloads to Kelvin and Richard to fill him in on a busy week for the property market, including: 

• The Corelogic Home Value Index results for August.
• Stats NZ Census data, including home ownership figures
• Government announcement to underwrite new developments
• RBNZ data on loan terms chose in August
• Economic data on business confidence and filled jobs. 

That's all before a detail preview of the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Review, and OCR decision coming up on Wednesday (reactionary pod pending Kelvin's Jury Duty and Nick's Sydney trip).

Of course, there's still room for a bit of sports chat at the end, including Richard's pride in his Olympic gold medal winning niece Tara Vaughan (K4 500), and the NRL Grand Final. 

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It’s a busy period at the moment for work travel and holidays, so this week’s episode is appearing a few days early – and we kick things off by looking at NZ’s $1m+ property markets, some of which are no surprise (e.g Auckland, Queenstown), but also some which aren’t quite as obvious.

Meanwhile, the recent economic data – such as the NZ Activity Index – hasn’t done anything to change the strong odds that the OCR is cut again on 9th October, which will keep the downwards pressure on mortgage rates. The effects of that are already showing through in mortgage lending activity, which is rising, with low-deposit activity also picking up.

Looking ahead, we’re awaiting filled jobs data, business confidence, dwelling consents, and figures on the loan terms being chosen by new borrowers – short fixes have been popular lately, so it’ll be interesting to see how August’s figures shape up.

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