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New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in Q2 2026 - the highest level in over a decade. However, beneath the headline number lies an encouraging trend for the residential property market: total employment actually expanded, meaning the unemployment jump was driven by an expanding labour force rather than mass job destruction.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Q2 labour market data. They examine why insulated homeowner employment is keeping non-performing loans and mortgagee sales at near-record lows, alongside a striking North-South Island economic divide where North Island unemployment sits at 6.0% compared to just 3.7% in the South Island. 

The guys also break down Kelvin’s latest analysis of Reserve Bank mortgage lending data. They cover why 50% to 60% of first-home buyers continue to secure low-deposit finance, the ongoing borrower shift toward two-year fixed mortgage terms, and why interest-only lending remains strictly controlled despite broader economic headwinds. 

This week we discuss:

• Q2 Labour Market Breakdown: Why 5.6% unemployment is driven by growing labour supply rather than job destruction. 
• Housing Market Immunity: How steady employment among existing homeowners prevents non-performing loans and forced sales. 
• Regional Labour Disparities: The North Island (6.0%) versus South Island (3.7%) unemployment divide, led by Northland (8.8%) and Auckland (6.5%). 
• Reserve Bank Lending Trends: Key takeaways from mortgage data, including active refinancing and low interest-only volumes. 
• Mortgage Term Shifts: Why borrowers are increasingly locking in two-year fixed rates as interest rate insurance. 
• September 2nd OCR Runway: How subdued wage growth (2.0%) impacts Reserve Bank inflation expectations ahead of the upcoming OCR statement. 

🔗 Read Kelvin’s latest Pulse article on RBNZ lending data: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/mortgage-lending-trends-10-things-to-know-right-now

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Is Australia on the verge of an extended New Zealand-style property slump, or will structural differences across the ditch protect the Aussie market?

In this special Trans-Tasman edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief NZ Economist Kelvin Davidson are joined by special guest Tim Lawless, Executive Research Director at Cotality Asia Pacific (celebrating nearly 20 years with the firm).

Together, the team conducts a thorough comparison of the post-COVID housing cycles in New Zealand and Australia. They explore why NZ values experienced a sharper 40% boom followed by a prolonged -17% drawdown, while Australia’s market rebounded rapidly off the back of a chronic physical housing deficit.

The panel compares key macro settings, including NZ’s 90% fixed-rate mortgage structure versus Australia’s 60%+ variable debt, mortgage servicing burdens pushing 50% of income in Australia versus easing to 37% in NZ, and the potential impacts of Australia's recent federal budget tax adjustments to negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT).

This week we discuss:

• Boom & Bust Trajectories: Comparing NZ’s 40% post-COVID surge and -17% fall with Australia’s 25% peak and swift recovery.
• Mortgage Debt Mechanics: Why NZ’s 90% fixed-rate debt delays monetary pass-through while Australia’s variable market (~6.2% rates) feels immediate rate shocks.
• Affordability Ceilings: Analysing mortgage serviceability burdens in Australia (pushing 50% of pre-tax income) versus NZ (peaked at 50%, now eased to 37%).
• Physical Supply Disparity: How NZ’s townhouse boom reduced housing shortages while Australia faces severe ongoing supply deficits.
• Tax Policy & Negative Gearing: What Australia's budget changes mean for investor demand and whether Aussie capital will flow to NZ.
• Key Trans-Tasman Lessons: What Australian buyers and policymakers can learn from NZ’s extended multi-year property adjustment.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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National property values recorded their fourth consecutive monthly drop in July, slipping -0.3% to extend the quarterly decline to -1.0%. On this week's episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results. We explore the deepening North-South divide: while Auckland (-0.7% month) and Wellington (-0.8% month) continue to drag, Christchurch (+0.1%) and Dunedin (+0.2%) remain resilient, and Invercargill has surged to a new record median peak of $565,000 (+8.2% YoY).

The guys also discuss a tongue-in-cheek LinkedIn post by Westpac Senior Economist Satish Ranchhod, which highlighted a statistical correlation between per-capita cow populations and house price growth. We explain why strong agricultural export returns are buffering rural centres like Gore, Hurunui, and Mackenzie, while urban service-driven economies lag under high interest rates and pre-election policy uncertainty.

Finally, we preview Wednesday's Q2 official labour market release following June's +0.1% filled jobs figure, evaluate why the unemployment rate could rise from 5.3% to 5.5% due to labour force expansion rather than mass layoffs, and review ANZ's July business confidence bounce.

This week we discuss:

• July Home Value Index: Why national values fell -0.3% over the month and -1.0% over the quarter.
• The North-South Divide: Auckland and Wellington value softness versus Christchurch (+3.6% YoY) and Dunedin (+3.3% YoY).
• Invercargill's New Record: Why the southern city hit $565,000 alongside agricultural hubs Gore, Hurunui, and Mackenzie.
• Satish Ranchhod’s Cow Post: How agricultural strength is directly supporting regional home values.
• Labour Market Preview: Why a forecast unemployment rise to 5.5% reflects a growing workforce rather than job destruction.
• Election Hesitation: How investor sentiment is cooling as buyers pause ahead of upcoming political tax debates.
• Listener Feedback: Addressing a Spotify comment on Christchurch suburb competition and the OCR path.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this special guest edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall is joined by Ryan Hannigan and Ben Grant from Loan Market Dunedin. Together, they explore the unique dynamics of the Otago and Southland property markets, where housing values and sales activity continue to outperform many northern regions.

Ryan and Ben break down the on-the-ground drivers in Dunedin, including how the multi-billion-dollar Dunedin Hospital build is attracting families, why first-home buyers are actively targeting the $600,000 to $700,000 price bracket, and how infill townhouse developments are transforming traditional suburbs. They also expose a key financing hurdle: why trading banks apply strict boarding house lending criteria to room-by-room student rentals, creating friction for investors despite high demand and steady yields.

The conversation also covers broader mortgage trends across New Zealand, highlighting that over 50% of buyers in June purchased with less than a 20% deposit. Ryan and Ben share practical advice on navigating 2–3 year fixed rate terms (4.99%–5.19%), managing test interest rates, and avoiding common pitfalls when refixing online or relying on unverified AI mortgage advice.

This week we discuss:

• Dunedin Market Resilience: Why median values around $623,000 keep the region highly accessible for first-home buyers and relocating families.
• Student Rental Financing: Why banks enforce boarding house rules on room-by-room student lets and how parents are stepping in to buy for studying children.
• Infill Development Growth: How developers are acquiring older homes to build modern townhouses, mirroring Christchurch’s urban densification model.
• The Southland Boom: Why Invercargill and broader Southland continue to buck national trends with strong job security and affordable $400,000 starter homes.
• The Low-Deposit Reality: Unpacking data showing more than half of recent borrowers entered the market with under a 20% deposit, including Kāinga Ora 5% options.
• Mortgage Structuring Strategy: Why clients are locking in 2–3 year fixed rates for budget certainty rather than chasing short-term rate dips.
• Advisor Insights: How to secure a "real estate pre-approval" to stand out in multi-offer scenarios, and how to filter out social media mortgage advice.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Residential property transactions across New Zealand have recorded six consecutive months of year-on-year declines. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest monthly Chart Pack data, revealing that first-half 2026 sales volumes reached 43,183 - down 4.2% compared to the same period in 2025. We explore why high listing stock and broader economic caution are keeping buyers and sellers in a stalemate, while noting that a lack of distress selling continues to keep the market anchored.

The guys also dissect the Q2 CPI inflation release, which landed at 4.1% annually. While slightly above the Reserve Bank's revised 3.9% forecast, the print landed directly in line with commercial bank expectations. We break down the stark divergence within the data: tradable inflation spiked to 4.9% off the back of global fuel pressures, while domestic non-tradable inflation eased slightly to 3.4%. Furthermore, annual rental growth has slowed to just 0.5% - the weakest rate of increase in more than two decades.

Finally, we discuss Stats NZ's official roadmap to introduce a monthly CPI release by August 2027, preview the upcoming July Home Value Index, and evaluate why the RBNZ remains firmly on track for an Official Cash Rate increase at the September 2nd statement.

This week we discuss:

• Six Months of Falling Sales: Why H1 2026 transaction volumes contracted 4.2% year-on-year, missing early expectations of a 5% to 10% recovery.
• Regional Sales Dynamics: Analysing the rolling three-month volume trends, from Dunedin’s 7.4% rise to Auckland’s 7.8% drop.
• The 4.1% CPI Reality Check: Breaking down the Q2 inflation print and why headline numbers drive consumer inflation expectations.
• Tradable vs. Non-Tradable Divergence: How fuel costs drove tradables to 4.9% while non-tradable domestic pressures softened to 3.4%.
• 20-Year Low for Rent Growth: What annual rental growth of just 0.5% means for residential landlord yields.
• The Path to September 2nd: Why the Reserve Bank is expected to push the OCR closer to its neutral target (~3.25%) despite weak consumer activity.
• Official Monthly CPI Roadmap: Stats NZ's timeline to transition from quarterly inflation tracking to monthly Tier-1 reporting by August 2027.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Construction output costs are tracking upward, but residential builders are absorbing the financial hit. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson analyse the newly released Q2 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI). 

The data shows an annualised cost acceleration to 3.5% for the second quarter, up from 3.0% in Q1. We break down the structural reasons why these rising input costs - driven by steel and fuel surcharges - are not being passed on to consumers, as flat residential values and high existing listing volumes force builders to sacrifice their margins.

The guys also preview the critical Q2 CPI inflation drop. Backed by the latest June Selected Price Indexes (SPI) data, which covers roughly 45% of the consumer basket, major trading bank economists have upgraded their near-term inflation projections to between 3.9% and 4.1%. 

We discuss what this means for the Reserve Bank’s targeted return to neutrality and why the upcoming September 2nd Official Cash Rate decision remains firmly aligned for another baseline increase.

Finally, we explore the highly volatile net migration metrics, detailing the staggering 23% downward revision to April’s population data, and look at the sharp 1.4% drop in June electronic card spending that signals ongoing consumer caution.

This week we discuss:

• The Q2 CCCI Acceleration: Why construction output costs rose to 3.5% annually and why the long-term sector average remains well below the post-COVID peak.
• The Margin Squeeze: How high volumes of competing existing housing stock prevent builders from passing input inflation through to consumers.
• The Selected Price Indexes: Analysing the mixed signals from June's fuel and food metrics ahead of tomorrow’s official CPI release.
• The 3.9% Inflation Floor: Why the RBNZ adjusted its baseline inflation forecast down from 4.2% at the recent Monetary Policy Review.
• Population Revisions: The macro implications of Stats New Zealand erasing 5,000 people from April’s net migration figures.
• The Sports Wrap: Spain’s football World Cup victory, Ryan Fox’s historic Open Championship win, and the All Blacks’ dominant performance against Ireland.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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First-home buyers are occupying a larger share of the New Zealand property market than at any point in the last two decades.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive into the June Buyer Classification data to complete a full wrap of the second quarter. The numbers reveal that first-home buyers secured a record-breaking 28.3% market share across Q2, capitalising on lower house prices, KiwiSaver access, and high-LVR bank lending allowances.

Meanwhile, the landscape for investors is fracturing. While small-scale "mum and dad" buyers holding two properties are steady, large-scale investors owning ten or more properties saw their market activity fall in Q2 down to 2.3%. We break down the combination of high bank serviceability testing, debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions, flat rents, and growing election anxieties regarding interest deductibility that are driving this retreat.

The guys also look at the sudden breakdown of the Iran-US peace deal and the re-closing of the Strait of Hormuz, analysing how renewed global supply chain uncertainty impacts the path toward the next Official Cash Rate review on September 2nd.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Reserve Bank has delivered an unexpected baseline shift. This week on a special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the RBNZ’s unanimous decision to hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 2.25% to 2.5%.

Despite a fracturing market consensus on Monday, the Monetary Policy Committee voted with total consensus to remove some economic accommodation. We break down the structural reasons behind the hike, including the RBNZ’s strategic pushback against recent easing in wholesale interest rates and a dropping exchange rate that threatened to undo their inflation-fighting progress.

The guys look past the headline figure to analyse the increased transparency under Governor Anna Bremen, exploring how individual committee members view current inflation balances. We map out what this means for a flattening housing market - currently down 0.9% annually at the end of June - and preview the five pillars of macro uncertainty that will dictate the next interest rate decision on September 2nd.

This week we discuss:

• The Unanimous Decision: Why the committee completely abandoned its previous 3-all split to push the OCR to 2.5%.
• The Financial Conditions Pushback: How dropping wholesale market interest rates forced the RBNZ to intervene to prevent premature economic stimulus.
• The Committee Split: Dissecting the internal RBNZ friction between members warning of structural inflation risks and those viewing them as balanced.
• The 3.9% Inflation Reality: Why the RBNZ downgraded its near-term Q2 CPI expectations from 4.3% while simultaneously lifting interest rates.
• The Housing Impact: Why retail mortgage rates are unlikely to shift aggressively despite the higher OCR baseline.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Does high climate risk actually destroy residential property value, or does it create a structural entry point for desperate buyers? 

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack a groundbreaking new analytics release tracking the long-term price impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle across Hawke's Bay and Auckland. 

The data exposes a fascinating climate paradox: high-risk homes are retaining immense price resilience purely because their discounted entry points attract intense demand from affordability-squeezed buyers. Check https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights from Tuesday morning.

The guys also deliver a full, high-stakes preview of Wednesday's structural Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision. With major trading banks split down the centre, we map out the exact economic crosswinds - including a sharp rebound in business confidence, marginally increasing filled jobs, and a structural potential oversupply of global oil - that will decide the outcome. 

Plus, Kelvin reports back on his live experience under the roof at Christchurch's brand-new Te Kaha stadium for the All Blacks' season opener.

This week we discuss:

• The June HVI Breakdown: Assessing the national 0.2% monthly dip and the ongoing underperformance of Auckland and Wellington City.
• The Cyclone Gabrielle Audit: Unpacking the data proving why flood-prone properties hold their values stubbornly against natural hazard warning systems.
• The Government Insurance Backstop: Why the days of automated state buyouts are ending and what it means for long-term un-insurability.
• The July OCR Split: Analysing the 3-2 bank economist division and the voting mechanics required to break a three-all committee deadlock.
• The Green Electrification Shift: How the permanent structural drop in global fossil fuel demand is quietly putting downward pressure on domestic inflation.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The underlying data is flashing clear warning signs of economic consolidation. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the latest New Zealand Activity Index (NZAC) and the Reserve Bank’s weekly updated Kiwi GDP Nowcast. The metrics reveal a stark economic slowdown in Q2, dropping bank expectations for a July Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase into a decisive holding pattern as major institutions pull back their forecast increases.

The structural highlight of the week centres on the newly released Reserve Bank mortgage lending data for May. For the first time in two solid years, year-on-year lending growth has ground to an absolute halt, printing a flat $8.6 billion line. We look past the national figures to uncover the real structural landscape: a massive $1.67 trillion asset baseline backed by just $398 billion in total debt. While an aggregate LVR of 24% suggests immense national stability, we expose the distribution trap masking the reality that one-third of New Zealand households carry 100% of the entire country's mortgage debt burden.

This week we discuss:

• The GDP Proxy Pivot: Why the Reserve Bank's dynamic, weekly updated Kiwi GDP Nowcast is eclipsing the traditional NZAC index as a truer indicator of a flatlining Q2 economy.
• The Lending Streak Snapped: Dissecting May’s flat $8.6 billion lending print and what it means for forward real estate velocity.
• The 24% Equity Illusion: Why a $1.67 trillion asset class hides the severe debt concentration weighing exclusively on the mortgaged third of the population.
• First-Home Buyer Domination: The raw deal metrics proving first-time buyers are actively expanding transaction volumes while movers collapse by 11%.
• The Landlord Tax Premium: How evolving political rhetoric from Labour and the Green Party regarding interest deductibility is shifting the long-term investor baseline.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.