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January’s lending data has landed, and while the crazy peak of December has passed, the underlying numbers reveal a market that is far from quiet. 

In this week's Monday morning yarn, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive into a return to normality for New Zealand lending. After the bank-switching surge of late 2025, January's figures show a billion-dollar increase over the previous year, signaling a resilient start to 2026. But the real story isn't just the volume - it’s who is taking the debt and how they are structuring it. 

This week, Nick and Kelvin break down:

• The LVR Appetite Shift: Why first-home buyers are increasingly comfortable operating outside the 20% deposit norm, with a record 57% of FHB loans now done at low-deposit levels. 
• Investor Re-engagement: A look at the tick-up in low-deposit investor lending (now at 3%) and what this tells us about the willingness of investors to increase debt despite high holding costs. 
• The Repricing Strategy: Why 30% of all existing mortgage debt is now fixed for at least 12 months - the highest level in years - as borrowers position themselves for a rising interest rate environment. 
• Non-Performing Loans: The surprising data on pockets of trouble (or the lack thereof) and why mortgagee sales haven't spiked despite the economic climate. 
• Woman and Property Report 2026: A deep dive into the Knowledge Gap, where 16% of women report not knowing where to start in property - triple the rate of their male counterparts.
• Generational Sustainability: Why Gen Z is leading the charge on energy upgrades and the financial hurdles that remain for older homeowners. 

Why This Matters for You

Understanding the January Reset is critical for anyone planning their 2026 property moves. As the market shifts away from the December chaos, we are seeing the emergence of a new normal where first-home buyers have the ascendancy and investors are cautiously testing the limits of loosened LVR speed limits. 

Whether you are navigating the serviceability trap or looking for a window of opportunity in the current flat-patch, this episode provides the research-led perspective you won't find in the headlines.

Links mentioned in the show:

• Latest Chart Pack
• Special IWD Guest Episode: Featuring Nicole Ferguson, National Director for Loan Market NZ. 
• Woman and Property Report 2026

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Cotality Head of Research Nick Goodall interviews Nicole Ferguson, National Director of Loan Market NZ to celebrate International Women's Day 2026. 

Nicole shares her journey from Australia to New Zealand, her leadership experiences, and insights on gender equity in the property and finance industries. 

We explore challenges faced by women, the importance of confidence and curiosity, and the future of sustainable housing and AI in finance, with reference to the 2026 Cotality Women & Property report.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week, following the release of the Cotality Monthly Chart Pack for February, Nick and Kelvin discuss recent sales data, regional buyer trends, and economic indicators. 

They explore the impact of timing on market activity, regional disparities, and the influence of economic recovery on housing demand following the RBNZ MPS and OCR hold from last week.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to hold the official cash rate at 2.25%.  

They analyse the economic forecasts, including GDP growth and inflation expectations, and explore the implications for the housing market. 

The conversation highlights the balance between caution and optimism in the current economic climate, with a focus on upcoming economic indicators and their potential impact on monetary policy.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the economy, focusing on monetary policy, net migration trends, and lending data. 

They analyse the implications of the Reserve Bank's upcoming monetary policy statement and the recent Cotality Pain and Gain report for Q4 2025, which highlights the profitability of property resales.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the housing market as reflected in the Cotality Home Value Index for January 2026.

They analyse the mixed signals from the economy, including the recent increase in the unemployment rate and its implications for the housing market (it is not all bad).

The conversation also touches on regional variability in property performance and the outlook for upcoming economic reports and events.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent lending data from the Reserve Bank, highlighting a significant increase in bank switching and refinancing activity. 

They explore the impact of cash incentives on borrower behavior and the implications for the housing market. 

The conversation also touches on insights from the Cotality decoding report, listener questions about spare capacity in the economy, and the dynamics of the labor market. 

The episode concludes with a preview of upcoming economic data releases, including the Cotality HVI and Q4 Labour Market stats. 

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, host Nick Goodall and guests discuss the findings of the Decoding 2026 report, which surveyed over 1,000 property professionals about their read on the market and expectations for the future.

The conversation covers the improved sentiment in the market, regional differences in property values, the impact of interest rates, and the evolving digital landscape in real estate. 

The guests share insights on the resilience of Invercargill's market, the challenges faced by Wellington, and the importance of planning reforms and climate change considerations in shaping the future of property in New Zealand.

The episode guests are:

• Diego Traglia from Team Diego Harcourts in Auckland
• James McRobie from Ray White Invercargill
• Tom Coad, Head of Industry Solutions at Cotality NZ

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin delve into the latest inflation data for Q4, discussing its implications for the official cash rate and the broader economy. 

They explore the nuances of core inflation, the dynamics of the property market, and the significant role of first-time buyers (following the release of the January Chart Pack). 

The conversation highlights the ongoing economic recovery and the various indicators that suggest a positive trend, while also addressing the challenges posed by inflation and its impact on consumers.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the construction sector, focusing on the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q4. They note that construction costs have remained relatively flat, with a slight increase of 0.9% for the quarter and 2.3% for the year, which is below the long-term average. The conversation highlights the potential for increased activity in the construction sector due to low interest rates and improved lending conditions, suggesting a more positive outlook for the industry moving forward. They also touch on the recent consenting data, which shows a year-on-year increase in construction activity, indicating a recovery in the market. 

The discussion then shifts to a broader economic overview, where they analyse retail spending data and its implications for the economy. They express caution regarding the recent decline in Boxing Day sales but note that overall spending for December was only slightly down. The hosts also discuss employment figures and inflation trends, emphasizing the importance of upcoming CPI data for the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decisions.  

The episode concludes with a detailed examination of debt-to-income (DTI) ratio reporting, clarifying previous misconceptions and providing insights into how these metrics affect lending and housing market dynamics.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected]

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.