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March data confirms a property market upturn was underway - but global second-round inflation risks may have just drawn a line in the sand.

In this episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the March Home Value Index, which saw a second consecutive 0.2% rise in national property values. While momentum was clearly building in Christchurch, Dunedin, and Invercargill through the first quarter, the escalating conflict in the Middle East has shifted the narrative toward cautionary gaps and a potential reversal of these gains.

We also preview tomorrow’s RBNZ Monetary Policy Review. With business and consumer confidence plummeting, will the Reserve Bank stay focused solely on sticky inflation, or will the growing risk of a real economy recession force a change in tone?

This week we discuss:

• The March HVI: Why Christchurch and Dunedin are outperforming Auckland and Wellington.
• Momentum vs. Volatility: Why March’s growth might be the last hurrah before geopolitical uncertainty takes hold.
• The RBNZ Preview: What to expect from the first policy review under a new Governor and the importance of uncertainty in their messaging.
• Labour Market Resilience: Why the rising unemployment rate is currently a story of labour force growth rather than mass job cuts.
• Construction Costs: A teaser for tomorrow's Q1 CCCI release and why the calm before the storm is ending.

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This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.