In part one I’ll walk through the second week of the conflict and explain why markets may already be pricing the limits of escalation. We’ll cover: • Why oil spiked to $115 before collapsing to $89 in three days • Why the $110–$120 oil ceiling may be the pain threshold for all sides • The pipelines and bypass infrastructure quietly moving millions of barrels around Hormuz • Why the Strait may have been closed by insurance markets rather than missiles • The next escalation ladder: what happens if the Red Sea closes • Why the disruption impacts LNG, fertilizers, semiconductors, tourism and global supply chains • How the crisis could lock Europe into long-term LNG dependence on the United States • Why Russia may be the economic winner of Week Two We’ll also look at what the financial markets are signalling: • Stress emerging in private credit markets funding AI data centers • Treasury yields rising as the cost of US debt increases • Why financial institutions may be using the crisis to reset balance sheets And why the oil market may already be telling us: this war has an expiration date.

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