As forecasted, the winds have let up, allowing the rope team to continue fixing it to the summit. This will open the mountain for scores for clients with one or more Sherpas in support. Look for a busy first wave of summits over the next few days.

The question is, how many people will be on their summit push this weekend? Almost every team has completed their acclimatization programs and is ready. The lack of fixed rope to the summit and high winds above Camp 3 has stalled everyone, frustrating some team leaders. Some forecasts have acceptable summit winds, under 30 mph/48 kph through May 20. If this pans out, there will be plenty of time for everyone to have their shot at the top. Thus, it becomes a question of how the team leaders will cooperate and coordinate their summit pushes.

Nepal issued 467 permits, and each foreigner, aka client or member, has at least one Sherpa climbing with them. Some have two or more. Last year’s final statistics showed 683 summits on the Nepal side broken down as 256 members and 415 Sherpas in support, yielding a ratio of 1: 1.62. By the way, for members, 75% of those who climbed above base camp made the summit.

According to the Himalayan Database, the top reasons for ending a climb once above base camp are:

In a typical year, around 25% of the clients abandon their expedition. Some get hurt, others are bored, and some figure out they are in over their head and wisely return home, hoping, perhaps, to learn from this experience and return one day better prepared. If that holds for 2023, we’ll see around 350 members instead fo 467, making the crowds more manageable.

Almost as a final kiss, high winds knocked down many tents at Camp 2 over the last few days. No one was injured, but some tents were lost. The best teams have spares, while others go begging for replacements. Just another normal day on Everest!

One fly in the summit ointment is that Camp 4 at the South Col has not been established. By this time in a normal season, Sherpas have stocked it with ample supplies like tents, stoves, fuel and oxygen. Some teams will skip this first wave until it’s established, while others will have the Sherpas do double work by supporting their client and carrying huge loads. This is an example of how Sherpas are so critical to climbing Everest for practically every client.

Climb On!
Alan
Memories are Everything