Everything Noles: For Florida State Seminoles Fans

No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-3.5) at No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions, Noon ET, FOX

Ohio State being favored here is surprising; I expected it closer to a pick-em. Both teams are contenders but feel one step from disappointment. In a close matchup like this, taking the home team with points seems smart.

Pick: Penn State +3.5

Duke Blue Devils (+20.5) at No. 5 Miami Hurricanes, Noon ET, ABC

A big spread, but Duke is still Duke. Coach Manny Diaz is motivated to win, but Miami’s talent gap is clear. I’ll take Duke plus 20 points.

Pick: Duke +20.5

No. 1 Oregon Ducks (-15.5) at Michigan Wolverines, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Michigan’s struggles are evident, and Oregon looks title-bound. While Michigan’s defense is solid, Oregon’s firepower on both sides likely proves too much.

Pick: Oregon -15.5

Florida Gators (+16.5) vs. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Florida has turned things around after a rough start and could still reach bowl eligibility. Freshman QB DJ Lagway offers high potential, but Georgia’s strength will likely overpower them.

Pick: Georgia -16.5

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+14.5) at No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Could this be the year Matt Campbell makes a CFP push? Despite Iowa State’s Big 12 co-favorite status, I’m skeptical of their Cinderella story and will take Texas Tech with the points.

Pick: Texas Tech +14.5

No. 13 Indiana Hoosiers (-7.5) at Michigan State Spartans, 3:30 p.m. ET, Peacock

Indiana is optimistic about QB Kurtis Rourke’s return and will try to keep their momentum going. I think they’ll pull off a win over Michigan State.

Pick: Michigan State +7.5

North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5) at Florida State Seminoles, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN

Here’s the game for those still following.

Pick: Florida State +2.5

No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Texas A&M’s playoff path looks clear, but South Carolina’s unpredictability could pose a challenge. After a rough start, A&M rallied, but South Carolina’s home advantage may keep it close.

Pick: South Carolina +2.5

Louisville Cardinals (+10.5) at No. 11 Clemson Tigers, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Clemson feels vulnerable, and while Louisville may not hand them a loss, they could expose some weaknesses.

Pick: Louisville +10.5

No. 18 Pitt Panthers (+7.5) at SMU Mustangs, 8:00 p.m. ET, ACCN

Sticking with Pitt, even without recent game experience.

Pick: Pitt +7.5

Record Year to Date: 18 Wins 20 Ties 16 Losses

Quarterback

Rocco Becht, Iowa State ($6,500) – Becht is an under-the-radar play, leading Iowa State to a top-10 rank. Though they focus on the run, Becht’s rushing and passing skills make him a strong pick against Texas Tech’s weak defense, which allows almost 34 points per game.

Bryson Daily, Army ($9,200) – Service academy QBs like Daily have high ceilings. Facing Air Force, who struggles against the run, Daily is set for a big game with potential help from Kanye Udoh.

Running Back

Trevor Etienne, Georgia ($6,500) – Etienne’s recent performance makes him a top pick in Georgia’s depleted backfield. With Florida’s weak run defense, Etienne should see increased carries as Georgia likely pulls away.

Mario Anderson, Memphis ($7,800) – Anderson thrives in Memphis’s high-paced offense and faces a UTSA defense that’s struggled against competent run teams. There’s some risk of Memphis relying on the pass, but Anderson’s volume makes him valuable.

Wide Receiver

Tez Johnson, Oregon ($7,700) – Johnson’s high target count and Oregon’s offensive strength make him a strong play. Michigan’s secondary struggles, and Johnson’s consistent performances offer a solid floor and ceiling.

Chris Carpenter, UTSA ($3,700) – With WR1 McCuin out, Carpenter has been heavily targeted and is a great value in this high-scoring game.

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Welcome to a special DFS-only episode of Sharpen the Point with your host, Chris Tyndall. flying solo today. No betting insights this time—Chris is focusing on what he knows best: Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) strategy and player picks.

We've been scoring big tournament wins. Over the last two weeks, he's been 20-maxing tournaments on DK, with 15 and 14 entries cashing—a high yield right now. Player pools have been tight and crisp. We’re going to break down every game on the Week 9 college football main slate and highlight the best plays.

Record Year to Date: 15 Wins, 18 Ties, 15 Losses

Record is based on a player's value using points per dollar. A win is more than 4 times, a tie is 3-4 times, and a loss below 3 times. Example: Oronde Gadsden costs $3,500 and scores 26.8 points for a 7.66 value rating and a win.

Quarterback

Josh Hoover, TCU ($8,500) – With two high-scoring games in Tulane/North Texas and Texas Tech/TCU, focusing on these matchups is crucial. Each team is expected to score over thirty, setting the stage for Hoover, who leads a TCU offense struggling on the ground and therefore passing more than 60% of the time—a top-ten rate nationally. Texas Tech's pass defense remains vulnerable, giving up nearly 270 yards per game, as evidenced by last week’s 274/5 performance against Sawyer Robertson. Hoover, combined with Savion Williams and Tahj Brooks, offers a great lineup core.

Will Howard, Ohio State ($7,900) – Howard's last outing, a close road game against Oregon, showcased his playmaking. While Ohio State’s title hopes are still alive, the team’s path forward has narrowed. After the bye, an explosive performance is expected against a Nebraska team coming off a rough outing against Indiana. Ohio State may emphasize the pass here, especially if they want to minimize carries for Quinshon Judkins, who recently underwent hand surgery, and increase Trey’Veon Henderson's workload.

Running Back

Makhi Hughes, Tulane ($7,400) – Hughes was a no-brainer pick due to his role and the ideal matchup. Tulane’s run-heavy offense (about two-thirds of plays) features Hughes as the main back, a trend head coach Jon Sumrall brought over from Troy. With North Texas’s strong offense, Tulane’s best strategy is ball control, leaning on Hughes to exploit a defense that gives up 175 rushing yards per game. Hughes has hit multiple touchdowns in three straight games, and he’s a strong pick to repeat that with 100+ yards and touchdowns.

Quintrevion Wisner, Texas ($4,800) – The Texas backfield has seen turnover, with CJ Baxter initially leading before injury, followed by Jaydon Blue, who fumbled his way down the depth chart. Wisner has now taken the lead, outperforming Blue in touches by 14 over the last two games. Vanderbilt’s run defense has allowed backs to reach big numbers, with Nate Noel nearly hitting 200 yards. Texas should deliver scoring opportunities for Wisner, making him a great value in a Sarkisian-led offense.

Wide Receiver

Daniel Jackson, Minnesota ($4,500) – Wide receivers abound in this slate, making the right combo crucial for payouts. Jackson, a star last season for Minnesota with four 100+ yard games and eight touchdowns, continues to see nearly nine targets per game. Facing a Maryland defense ranked near last in passing yards allowed (288 per game), Jackson has a prime opportunity to break out and deliver a high-impact performance.

DT Sheffield, North Texas ($7,000) – Sheffield caps the slate as a consistent performer in a North Texas offense that’s among the fastest in the country, passing 60% of the time. Averaging 7 catches, 94 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns per game, Sheffield is priced attractively for his role. In cash games, Sheffield feels essential, but for tournaments, Tulane’s ability to control the clock could keep Sheffield off the field, opening leverage options like Josh Kelly, Tez Johnson, or Ohio State's playmakers.

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Each year, there are two games circled on the Florida State football schedule, both intrastate rivalries that have established themselves as important parts of college football’s tapestry.

While FSU-UF had its heyday during its fierce battles between Bobby Bowden and Steve Spurrier, the series between Florida State and the Miami Hurricanes has maintained its edge and prestige even when one team falters and the national stakes of the matchup fall to the wayside. Seven of the last ten matchups (18 of the last 25!) have been decided by one score, with the series sitting at 35-33 in Miami’s favor.

The history and importance of this game isn’t lost on either side, especially as the memory of Florida State’s 2022 win in Hard Rock Stadium is still fresh in Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal’s mind. In his first year leading the program, he saw FSU put together a 45-3 win, the largest road victory in the history of the two schools. After pushing the Seminoles to the edge last year in an upset bid, making a statement is going to be on the forefront of his and Miami’s mind.

With No. 6 Miami boasting a 7-0 (3-0 ACC) record and a Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Cam Ward, it would be a tall task for Florida State in a normal year — in 2024, with FSU fielding one of the country’s worst offenses as the defense still tries to acclimate, it’ll be a major challenge avoiding a repeat of 2020’s matchup, when Miami scored the most points in series history en route to a 42-point win of its own (52-10).

What does Miami bring to the table outside of quarterback? On this week’s Line of Scrimmage, we’re joined by our friend Adam Lichtenstein of the Sun Sentinel to talk about the Hurricanes run this year, what they’re fielding on each side of the ball and how he thinks the game will go on Saturday night.

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The Florida State Seminoles are just weeks away from tipping off their 2024-25 basketball season, looking to continue an upward trajectory after a major year-to-year jump from 2022-2023 (205th to 79th in KenPom).

Roster turnover and a tough ACC schedule will make that even more of a challenge heading into the 22nd year of head coach Leonard Hamilton’s tenure — the final of his current contract. We’ve already broken down the roster in full article form (available here, in case you missed it) but for those of you finding for a new episode of the Gospel of Ham Florida State basketball podcast, we’ve got a fresh one on deck breaking down the players on this year’s squad, the schedule that awaits them and more:

• 1:45 - Opening discussion on Tony Bennett retiring and the NIL/Portal landscape

 I feel like if you’ve been paying attention to the world of college basketball for the last two, three, four years, it wasn’t like this is coming out of nowhere. And quite honestly, basketball is often at the forefront of some of this before football. I wouldn’t be shocked if some of this starts to happen in football too. He didn’t love the system. I can’t blame him. I am in favor of players getting paid, I’m in favor of players having the ability to move around, but there’s gotta be some rules to it that kind of make sense.It makes me wonder if sometimes, not we, you and me, but we, the general public, underestimate Leonard Hamilton’s pure competitive fire and passion for the game of basketball, because the entire landscape is so different from when he first started coaching.

15:00 - 2024-25 Roster

For the first time since the year before the Scottie Barnes year, I think the coaching staff finally decided, okay, if we’re going to run this defense and stuff, the system that we want to run, we need to have some players. that just 1 through 12 fit the system.The high-end talent of, of multiple lottery picks — FSU doesn’t have that. They might have four G League players on this roster. But what they do have is, I really don’t know that there’s a big difference between the fourth-best player and the ninth-best player.And they’re all about 6-foot-7. They’re all fairly, at least on film laterally quick. And if you think to yourself that, well, if Jamir gets you 20 a game, I really don’t care if anyone else averages more than 10 or 11, because you’re gonna create a lot of steals. You’re going to have a lot of lobs and you’re going to create a lot of just like kind of chaos out there with a bunch of 6-7 guys.And maybe, maybe that can work

• 19:10 - The Jamir Watkins Offense

I would love to see this just be like Jamir’s team. Just give him the ball, get out of the way. Watkins had 28.2% usage rate last year — that means that the possession either ended with Jameer shooting, rebounding, or turning it over.Toney Douglas, in 2009, was 27.6. So actually, last year, Jamir was already At the same usage rate as Toney Douglas. I mean, how, how high can you ratchet it up? 

• 31:00 - So about the defense...

What is Ham gonna do with the defense? 10 new faces out there — you know this defense that takes two or three years to really understand.

• 42:00 - The Schedule

If they’re not 3-0 heading into the Florida game, we’re already going to have some red flags raised.... get through Florida, say three and one, then who knows? The rest of the rest of the out of conference schedule is not that tough.20 ACC games — is it a top three league this year? Who’s gonna win it? 

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In 2024, Duke has defied most expectations after losing head coach Mike Elko to the Texas A&M Aggies, off to a strong 5-1 start under new head coach Manny Diaz — a familiar face to the Seminoles who has managed to keep the Blue Devils rolling up until suffering their first loss of the season to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

While Duke wasn’t given much credit for its 5-0 start, failing to crack the Top 25, the team still has a chance to snap the program’s always-beaten streak against Florida State. Diaz has brought his signature defensive aggressiveness, with Duke’s defense recording 18 sacks, 13 of which come from a deep defensive line led by Vincent Anthony Jr. and defensive tackles Aaron Hall and Kendy Charles. At quarterback, Texas transfer Maalik Murphy has logged thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of six games, while Star Thomas, a transfer from New Mexico State, has emerged as the lead back in a room capable of putting up yards against an FSU defense still trying to find consistency.

This week on the Line of Scrimmage podcast, we connected with Donald Wine from the Duke Basketball Roundup to get the inside scoop on the Blue Devils, including:

...and more.

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October is here, and for the fifth time in the last seven years, Florida State’s season is basically over.

What does that mean for us? It’s time to hate, hate, hate and roll in some schadenfreude as the rest of the year unfolds.

We’ve got plenty of opportunities on deck this week, mainly UCF-Florida. It’s a battle of the smarmy vs. the insecure, with either the Gators about to have to endure the latest painful point in Billy Napier’s tenure or the Knights getting the “you’re not quite a Power program” treatment. I mentioned on this week’s podcast that it’s like watching two cousins fight in embarrassing fashion at Thanksgiving while you’re sloshed due to the fact you’re in crippling debt and everybody knows it, and I stand by that.

As for Miami, the Hurricanes managed to avoid a collapse at home against Virginia Tech last week, getting lucky that the non-catch that was called a catch on the field was reversed to being a non-catch even though rules dictate that it should have been a catch (which again, it was not). Cal has lost a bit of faith on my end in its ability to pull off the upset given the fact the Golden Bears have done something nobody else has done this season (lose to Florida State) but Berkley is about to be bopping for the program’s first-ever College Gameday matchup. Are we going to see Cam Ward do another sorta-Jekyll-mainly-Hyde performance that has Miami on the ropes in a late-night matchup? That’s what Cal (and of course, the haters) will be hoping for.

There aren’t too many stakes-heavy matchups on this week’s slate, but boy howdy, are they appealing on paper. We’ve got 10 pinpointed for you this week — and yes, a confirmed 10 for you faithful degen since somebody who is unable to count and only had nine games last week.

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To say the least, the first month of the 2024 season was rough for the Florida State Seminoles (1-4, 1-3 ACC).

And now, to start off October, FSU will face off against its first ranked opponent of the season — the No. 15 Clemson Tigers (4-1, 2-0 ACC). After a disappointing showing vs. the Georgia Bulldogs to open the year, Clemson has bounced back to put its season on track and enters into the matchup vs. the Seminoles as 14.5-point favorites (per FanDuel).

The offense is anchored by junior quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has shown significant growth this season, and is supported by a powerful rushing attack led by Phil Mafah, averaging 8 yards per carry.

On defense, Clemson’s front seven is as dangerous as ever, led by defensive end TJ Parker, who already has three sacks this season. The linebacker duo of Wade Woodaz and Barrett Carter brings experience and athleticism, while the secondary, led by safety RJ Mickens, has only allowed five touchdowns all season.

What will the Tigers be bringing to the table when they make the trek to Tallahassee? On this episode of the Line of Scrimmage podcast, we’re joined by Matt Goldin of our SB Nation sister site Shakin’ the Southland to get the breakdown on Clemson, including:

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As we enter week five of the 2024 college football season, we’re finally into “multiple games with plenty of storylines” territory, and boy does it feel good to live in the era of the four-box YouTube TV setup.

First, the game of the week: Georgia, shunted from its perch atop the AP rankings, has finally gotten the “they don’t believe in us!!!” motivation that Kirby Smart has previously had to pull out of thin air in an effort to keep them invested. Alabama has had the Bulldogs number in year’s past, but Nick Saban ain’t walking through that door — Jalen Milroe, however, is. The Crimson Tide haven’t looked anywhere near what people perceive Alabama to be (though, last year, that didn’t stop the committee from....I’m sorry, I’m sorry), and Georgia is much more capable of taking advantage of opportunities than Wisconsin and USF.

Then, we’ve got FSU, with an albatross of an offense dangling around its neck as the defense tries to claw its way from the depths. There’s a chance that they can shake things off and find some production for the first time this season, but combine the lack of evidence this offense is capable with the soft factor angle of SMU coming to the table eager to prove it deserves its spot in a power conference after being specifically targeted in lawsuits showing why the ACC can’t be taken seriously, and it’s hard to see things going pretty there.

In Louisville and Notre Dame, it’s a chance for Marcus Freeman to shake off the perception that Notre Dame isn’t built to contend under his leadership while Jeff Brohm is looking to build off an impressive win against Georgia Tech and elevate Louisville to actual threat from potential. The same goes for Penn State, who has a chance to prove itself a legitimate contender in the Big 10 while facing off against an Illinois team riding the high of last week’s Nebraska win.

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Florida State (1-3, 1-2 ACC) will once again serve as an opponent’s first-ever ACC matchup, this time doing so on the road vs. the SMU Mustangs.

SMU (3-1) heads into the game having bounced back from a close loss to No. 22 BYU with a dominant 66-42 win over the TCU Horned Frogs. The Mustangs, who ponied up plenty of cash to be able to prove themselves as worthy of power conference status, will be looking to make a statement in a primetime matchup (8 p.m. ET, ACC Network).

In this week’s episode of the Line of Scrimmage, we speak with Dean Ralsky of On the Pony Express, an On3 SMU site. to get all the details on what SMU brings to the table, including:

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No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini (+8.5) at No. 22 Nebraska Cornhuskers — Friday, 8 p.m., FOX

Illinois has a nice upset over Kansas and plays great defense. Nebraska’s big win was a blowout of Colorado, but freshman QB Dylan Raiola has had it too easy so far. I expect a grind-it-out Big Ten game. I’ll take Illinois and the points.

Brian’s Pick: Illinois +8.5

Florida Gators (-6.5) at Mississippi State Bulldogs — Noon, ESPN

This has to be Billy Napier’s first win of the season, or he’s in real trouble. Mississippi State is dreadful, and they were quickly dominated by Toledo last week. If Florida doesn’t win this, it’s over for Napier.

Brian’s Pick: Florida -6.5

NC State Wolf Pack (+20.5) at No. 21 Clemson Tigers — Noon, ABC

With Grayson McCall out for NC State and true freshman CJ Bailey starting at Clemson, it’s a tough spot for the Wolf Pack. I don’t want to bet on a true freshman in this environment.

Brian’s Pick: Clemson -20.5

No. 11 USC Trojans (-5.5) at No. 18 Michigan Wolverines — 3:30 p.m., CBS

Michigan being a 5.5-point underdog at home shows the lack of confidence in the defending champs. I’ve been down on Michigan, but this line feels bigger than expected. I think Michigan could pull off a surprise win.

Brian’s Pick: Michigan +5.5

UCLA Bruins (+24.5) at No. 16 LSU Tigers — 3:30 p.m., ABC

UCLA has struggled to score, even against Hawaii. LSU has shown some vulnerabilities, but at home, in the Louisiana heat, they’ll be too much for UCLA to handle.

Brian’s Pick: LSU -24.5

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+10.5) at No. 19 Louisville Cardinals — 3:30 p.m., ESPN2

Louisville has had an easy schedule so far, but I’m not sold on them. Georgia Tech’s physical run game should keep this one close.

Brian’s Pick: Georgia Tech +10.5

No. 12 Utah Utes (+1.5) at No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys — 4:00 p.m., FOX

The big question is Cam Rising’s health. If he’s not 100%, I’ll take Oklahoma State and their ground game at home.

Brian’s Pick: Oklahoma State -1.5

No. 8 Miami Hurricanes (-16.5) at USF Bulls — 7:00 p.m., ESPN

USF nearly upset Alabama a couple of weeks ago, and while they might make this interesting, their passing attack isn’t enough to overcome Miami.

Brian’s Pick: Miami -16.5

Cal Golden Bears (+2.5) at Florida State Seminoles — 7:00 p.m., ESPN2

Cal’s defense, especially the linebackers, has been tough. Florida State continues to struggle to find offensive rhythm, and I’ll take Cal as the more consistent team.

Brian’s Pick: Cal +2.5

No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (-7.5) at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners — 7:30 p.m., ABC

This is the game of the day. Tennessee’s offense has been unstoppable with Nico at QB, but the key will be how their defense can get the ball back in good positions. If they do that, Tennessee wins.

Brian’s Pick: Tennessee -7.5

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