Excess Returns

David Giroux, CIO of T. Rowe Price and manager of the Capital Appreciation strategy, joins Excess Returns for a wide ranging discussion on market valuation, AI investing, Mag 6 dynamics, utilities, healthcare, fixed income, and how to think independently in volatile markets. David shares his framework for exploiting structural market inefficiencies, why market drawdowns can create opportunity, how he evaluates the S&P 500 at the micro level, and what investors are getting wrong about AI, profit margins, and the current cycle.

Main topics covered in this episode

• Exploiting structural market inefficiencies in GARP stocks, high yield, and double B credit
• Why market drawdowns often lower forward risk and increase expected returns
• Strategic equity allocation during periods of fear and volatility
• Rethinking S&P 500 valuation through 500 company bottom up analysis
• The changing composition of the index and its impact on profit margins
• Where the most overvalued and undervalued areas of the market may be today
• AI investing framework including Nvidia, AMD, cloud providers, and software risk
• How AI could reshape margins, labor productivity, and enterprise software
• Differences between today and the dotcom bubble
• Overweight positioning in utilities and healthcare and the thesis behind each
• Fixed income positioning including the belly of the Treasury curve and fiscal risk
• Commodities, gold, and fiscal sustainability
• Lessons for portfolio managers on independent thinking and making high conviction bets

Timestamps

00:00 Market drawdowns and forward returns
02:09 Exploiting structural market inefficiencies
06:28 Strategic equity allocation during selloffs
11:22 Is the market expensive and how to value the S&P 500
15:00 Profit margins and index composition
17:13 Where valuation excess exists outside the Mag 6
20:38 How to think about AI and enterprise adoption
27:18 AI disruption risk across sectors
39:20 AI versus the dotcom bubble
42:30 Apple versus Meta and capital allocation
46:53 Overweight utilities and healthcare
52:57 Fixed income opportunities and risks
57:32 Commodities, gold, and fiscal concerns
01:00:15 Lessons for new portfolio managers

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, for a wide-ranging conversation on market sentiment, asset rotation, and the growing signals of stress beneath the surface of global markets. Kevin explains why extreme bullishness can be dangerous, why gold and commodities may be flashing warning signs, and how shifts in currencies, energy, and global capital flows could reshape portfolios in the years ahead. From hedging strategies to volatility, from AI-driven concentration to international diversification, this discussion focuses on how investors can think clearly in an environment where traditional relationships are breaking down.

Topics covered:

• Why extreme bullish sentiment can be a warning sign for markets

• The meaning of “buying straw hats in the winter” and how to think about hedging

• Market breadth, small caps, and whether rotations are healthy or late cycle

• Gold, silver, and what precious metals signal about financial stress

• Cross-asset volatility and why correlations are changing

• Energy markets, commodities, and the long-term impact of underinvestment

• Global capital flows, foreign ownership of US assets, and currency risk

• The US dollar, trade deficits, and implications for international investors

• Portfolio construction lessons from bonds, commodities, and FX

• How macro regime shifts can change risk management and diversification

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and market sentiment overview
03:00 Buying protection and the straw hat analogy
07:00 Sentiment indicators and market confirmation
12:00 Market rotations, small caps, and late-cycle risks
18:00 Gold, silver, and precious metals as warning signals
23:00 Bonds, currencies, and broken correlations
29:00 Energy markets and commodity underinvestment
37:00 Global capital flows and foreign ownership of US assets
44:00 The US dollar, trade deficits, and FX volatility
52:00 Macro regime shifts and portfolio construction lessons

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Victoria Greene of G Squared Private Wealth for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro risk, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about 2026 and beyond. Victoria brings a pragmatic, risk-aware framework to investing, blending top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals, technicals, and a strong focus on cash flow, diversification, and policy risk. We cover everything from the rise of what she calls a badger market, to AI capex, market concentration, inflation risk, and why policy error, not valuation, is what historically ends bull markets.

Main topics covered
• Why valuation is a poor market timing tool and what actually ends bull markets
• The concept of a badger market and how investors should mentally prepare for volatility
• Cash flow never lies and how Victoria evaluates business quality
• Diversification in 2026 and why international, commodities, and value matter more now
• Risks and opportunities in the labor market, AI-driven disruption, and productivity
• The K-shaped economy and what it means for consumers and corporate earnings
• 60/40 portfolios, alternatives, and where commodities fit today
• AI investing from infrastructure to software and cybersecurity
• Yield curve dynamics, inflation risk, and portfolio positioning
• Active vs passive investing in a concentrated market
• How policy decisions and election dynamics influence markets

Timestamps
00:00 Intro and why valuation does not kill bull markets
01:40 Investment philosophy and macro first portfolio construction
06:00 Cash flow never lies explained
07:40 Diversification beyond US large caps
10:00 Market expectations and big tech earnings risk
11:00 What is a badger market
12:40 Is the 60 40 portfolio dead
15:00 Why Victoria remains constructive on markets
18:00 Politics, sentiment, and market noise
21:00 Policy error vs valuation as the real risk
26:40 The K-shaped economy and consumer health
31:10 Hard data vs soft data disconnect
34:10 Labor market risks and data reliability
36:40 Yield curve steepening and inflation risk
41:40 Portfolio positioning in a higher inflation world
43:00 How to invest in AI beyond the Mag 7
47:20 Where we are in the AI cycle
49:30 Active management challenges and opportunities
53:00 Valuation, planning, and long-term return expectations

Follow Last Call on Spotify

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Join Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler for the premiere episode of Last Call, a new monthly market wrap show where we go beyond the headlines to deliver actionable investment insights — and have a little fun along the way.

Instead of focusing on index performance or short-term moves, we step back and connect the dots between macro instability, narrative shifts, options market signals, private credit risk, AI capital spending, and the changing nature of the Magnificent Seven.

Featuring conversations with Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma, Ben Hunt from Perscient, Kai Wu from Sparkline Capital, and clips from our recent interviews with Liz Ann Sonders and Aswath Damodaran, the episode blends market structure, behavioral finance, valuation discipline, and long-term investing context to help investors understand what is really driving today’s market environment — and how to think about it going forward.

Main Topics:

• Why this is not a traditional market recap and how Last Call is designed to be more useful for investors

• Instability versus uncertainty — and why today’s market feels different• Loss of trust in institutions, policy, and global systems and its impact on markets

• What options market flows reveal about hidden market risks and sudden volatility• How private credit has reached bubble-like conditions and why narrative risk matters

• The debate over retail and retirement account exposure to private credit• Why valuation discipline looks different when correlations rise across asset classes

• Aswath Damodaran on trimming positions, raising cash, and the difficulty of finding uncorrelated assets

• How the Magnificent Seven are changing from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses

• AI capital expenditure, historical spending booms, and why infrastructure builders often underperform

• Whether this AI cycle is truly different from railroads, telecom, and past technology booms

Timestamps

00:00 — Intro and opening clips

01:10 — What Last Call is and why this format exists

04:30 — Instability versus uncertainty in today’s market

09:58 — Loss of trust, gold, and historical parallels

13:18 — Brent Kochuba on options flows and hidden market stress

25:17 — How options dislocations explain sudden market drops

25:40 — Ben Hunt on private credit narrative risk

28:00 — Why private credit exposure is everywhere

32:32 — Retail access versus restrictions in private credit

36:19 — What happens if the private credit bubble breaks

39:28 — Aswath Damodaran on raising cash and trimming positions

47:08 — The changing nature of the Magnificent Seven

47:42 — Kai Wu on AI capex and asset-heavy tech

50:48 — Why high capital spending often leads to underperformance

56:01 — Historical parallels from railroads to the dot-com boom

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined again by Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Advisors for a wide-ranging conversation that challenges some of the most popular narratives in markets today. From private equity and private credit risks to AI-driven capital cycles and overlooked opportunities in biotech and international equities, Dan offers a deeply research-driven perspective on where investors may be misallocating capital and where future returns could emerge. Alongside Justin and special guest co-host Kai Wu, the discussion connects valuation, incentives, and innovation in a market environment shaped by concentration, leverage, and technological change.

Main topics covered
• Why private equity performance continues to disappoint and where the biggest structural risks are emerging
• The growing stress in private credit and what rising bankruptcies signal for lower middle-market deals
• Why democratizing private equity through 401ks, interval funds, and ETFs may create more problems than solutions
• How AI CapEx is changing the economics of Big Tech and why asset-light models may be getting worse, not better
• The case for diversifying away from U.S. concentration toward international markets and international small value
• Why bubbles are often necessary for innovation and how to think about AI through that historical lens
• How investors may be underestimating valuation and growth bankruptcy risk in the Mag 7
• Why biotech is one of the hardest sectors to model and how Verdad rebuilt its framework from scratch
• How intangible value, clinical trial data, specialist ownership, and peer momentum can improve biotech investing
• What capital starvation, M&A dynamics, and global competition mean for biotech’s future returns

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and market narratives
02:20 Revisiting private equity risks and performance
06:58 Private credit stress and bankruptcy signals
10:58 Private equity in 401ks and interval fund risks
14:52 Private assets in ETFs and liquidity concerns
15:45 Why bubbles drive innovation and capital formation
20:13 AI CapEx, Mag 7 concentration, and valuation risk
25:24 International diversification and market leadership
29:41 Why Verdad turned to biotech research
37:13 Rebuilding biotech valuation and quality metrics
44:26 Clinical trial data and peer momentum insights
49:17 Portfolio construction and long-short biotech strategies
51:00 Capital starvation, AI, and biotech’s setup
53:58 Research culture, humility, and evolving quant models

In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explore how the words investors use quietly shape the decisions they make — often in destructive ways. From labels like “cheap,” “expensive,” and “compounder” to debates about valuation, concentration, and AI, the conversation digs into how language collapses uncertainty into false certainty. Drawing on general semantics, mental models, and decades of investing experience, they explain why confusing maps for reality leads investors astray — and how clearer thinking can change how you see markets, risk, and long-term returns.

Topics discussed include:

• Why paying 30x earnings can be rational when return on invested capital stays high

• How the word “is” smuggles hidden assumptions into investment decisions

• The difference between a company being a compounder and having compounded in the past

• Why valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizon

• The “map vs. territory” problem in financial statements and market data

• Market concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investors

• How language shapes narratives around value, growth, and risk

• AI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from hype

• Why many binary true-or-false questions are traps for investors

• How long-term investors think in decades, not quarters

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From gold and precious metals to miners, commodities, cyclicals, and the evolving role of AI, this conversation bridges big-picture macro themes with actionable market insights for both traders and long-term investors.

Topics covered:
• Why gold is rallying as trust in institutions erodes
• Central banks, inflation, and the long-term consequences of monetary policy
• The shift from a 60-40 portfolio to alternatives and real assets
• Precious metals versus technology leadership in a changing market regime
• Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium as core themes
• Consumer inflation, food prices, and purchasing power on Main Street
• Big Food, Big Pharma, and the broader trust breakdown
• Legal, political, and geopolitical risks shaping investor behavior
• The end of globalization and the rise of domestic supply chains
• Copper, energy, and natural resources in an economic recovery
• AI, semiconductors, and signs of a leadership transition
• Prediction markets and new tools for understanding market expectations
• Financials, airlines, and overlooked cyclical opportunities
• How to think about risk management when macro regimes change

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the collapse of trust in institutions
02:00 Why gold is responding to credibility loss, not fear
05:00 Central banks, inflation, and monetary excess
08:20 Purchasing power and real-world inflation pressures
11:00 Big Food, Big Pharma, and consumer awareness
14:00 Healthcare, fraud, and institutional breakdown
16:30 Legal system risk and political credibility
18:30 Global factors, sanctions, and the shift away from globalization
21:00 Precious metals, miners, and natural resource leadership
25:00 The three mining themes driving performance
29:00 Stocks and gold rising together in a new regime
32:00 Gold market structure and long-term trend analysis
36:00 Japan, global bond markets, and gold demand
39:00 Investing versus trading precious metals
43:00 Copper, supply chains, and tech partnerships
47:00 AI leadership, capital rotation, and market risk
51:00 Financials, airlines, and cyclical signals
57:30 What would break the thesis and risk management signals

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss how long-term macro forces are shaping markets and investment opportunities. Jan shares how his firm thinks about government spending, monetary policy, and technology, why he believes investors have more visibility than they realize heading into 2026, and how trends like artificial intelligence, gold, and global asset allocation could redefine portfolios over the next decade and beyond.

Topics covered in this episode include

• How VanEck uses fiscal policy, monetary policy, and technology as core macro pillars

• Why declining fiscal deficits may reduce long-term stress on markets

• The case for a less interventionist Federal Reserve and what it means for investors

• Why thinking in decades, not quarters, can lead to higher conviction investing

• Artificial intelligence as a transformative economic force and its impact on semiconductors, energy, and productivity

• The AI capex buildout, compute shortages, and lessons from past infrastructure booms

• Gold’s resurgence as a global store of value in a multipolar world

• The difference between owning physical gold and gold mining stocks

• Risks and opportunities in private credit and business development companies

• Why illiquid assets may not belong in daily liquidity vehicles like ETFs

• India’s long-term growth potential and implications for global portfolios

• How family ownership influences VanEck’s long-term investment approach

• Behavioral mistakes investors make and why long-term charts matter

• Lessons Jan would teach the average investor based on decades of market experience

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and VanEck’s macro framework
02:25 Translating macro views into product development
04:34 2026 outlook and why visibility may mean risk on
06:00 Fiscal deficits, interest rates, and market stress
07:00 The future of Federal Reserve intervention
10:48 Long-term investing versus short-term predictions
14:00 India, global growth, and asset allocation
19:00 Artificial intelligence, compute demand, and semiconductors
24:00 AI, jobs, and economic impact
29:00 AI capex, market concentration, and historical analogies
38:31 Private credit risks and liquidity considerations
40:35 Illiquid assets and ETFs
42:56 Gold, global currencies, and long-term trends
47:26 Gold miners versus physical gold
52:14 Contrarian opportunities and underloved markets
52:47 Advantages of a family-owned investment firm
56:06 Tokenization, blockchain, and market structure
59:45 Investor psychology and long-term charts
01:02:05 Lessons for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather joins Matt Zeigler to unpack what she calls the Great Housing Reset. Rather than a housing crash or correction, Fairweather argues the market is entering a multi year transition toward something more normal, where incomes gradually catch up to home prices and affordability improves at the margin. The conversation covers mortgage rates, supply constraints, regional housing dynamics, climate risk, policy tradeoffs, and how AI is reshaping real estate decisions for buyers, renters, and investors.

Topics covered in this episode
• Why the current housing market is a reset, not a crash or correction
• How income growth outpacing home price growth could slowly improve affordability
• Mortgage rate dynamics and why rates may stay near the low 6 percent range
• The mortgage rate lock in effect and why inventory may take years to normalize
• Regional housing trends including the Midwest, Northeast, Sunbelt, and tech hubs
• The role of wages, rents, and affordability for Gen Z and first time homebuyers
• Investor activity, rental markets, and the outlook for housing as an investment
• Immigration, foreign buyers, and local market distortions
• Multi generational living, ADUs, and creative housing solutions
• Housing policy ideas that actually address supply constraints
• Why demand side policies like 50 year mortgages miss the real problem
• Climate risk, insurance costs, and total cost of home ownership
• How AI and conversational search are changing the home buying process
• The future of MLS consolidation and real estate market structure
• Practical guidance for renters, buyers, and homeowners looking ahead to 2026

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and the Great Housing Reset
02:00 What a housing reset really means
03:30 Income growth versus home price growth
05:20 Mortgage rates and the outlook for borrowing costs
08:40 Fed policy, bond markets, and mortgage rates
10:40 Inventory shortages and the lock in effect
12:30 Regional housing market winners and losers
16:00 Affordability challenges for younger buyers
19:00 Rental markets and investor dynamics
21:20 Multi generational living and ADUs
25:00 Housing policy and supply constraints
29:30 Why 50 year mortgages do not solve affordability
33:00 Geographic housing outlook by life stage
39:30 Climate risk, insurance, and housing costs
47:00 Energy efficiency and dense housing
50:20 AI, real estate search, and market structure
54:30 What to watch in the housing market through 2026
59:30 Book discussion and where to follow Daryl Fairweather

In this episode of Excess Returns, Rupert Mitchell returns to break down a rapidly shifting global macro landscape and explain how he is positioning across regions, assets, and market regimes. The conversation spans emerging markets, commodities, China, Latin America, US market leadership, and the risks building beneath familiar narratives. Rupert walks through the charts, frameworks, and portfolio construction decisions that underpin his current outlook, with a focus on duration, cash flows, and real assets in a changing cycle.

Topics covered include:

• Why US equity leadership is showing signs of fatigue after a decade-plus run

• The case for emerging markets as a multi-year relative trade

• Latin America as a commodity-driven opportunity rather than a political bet

• Brazil, Mexico, and Peru through the lens of fiscal policy and real assets

• Why India stands out as expensive within emerging markets

• China’s equity market inflection and the role of domestic savings and fiscal support

• The difference between onshore A-shares and offshore Chinese equities

• Why Rupert prefers lower-beta, dividend-oriented exposure in China

• How AI is being deployed differently in China versus the US

• The risks facing enterprise software and long-duration growth assets

• Portfolio construction, benchmarking, and managing drawdowns across cycles

• How Rupert thinks about hedging, trend following, and capital preservation

Timestamps:
00:00 Macro market backdrop and early warning signals
01:00 Venezuela, oil, and why context matters more than headlines
04:40 The chart of truth and US versus international equities
07:00 Emerging markets relative performance and historical parallels
10:00 Duration risk, valuation, and the shift toward real assets
14:30 Mag 7 leadership, software weakness, and AI disruption
18:00 India valuations and the role of flows and derivatives
20:40 Latin America beyond politics: commodities and fiscal drivers
26:00 Brazil, Mexico, and country-level positioning
29:50 Benchmarking and why Latin America is a major overweight
32:10 China’s equity inflection and the ABC framework
36:00 Fiscal policy, buybacks, and domestic savings in China
41:00 Tencent versus Alibaba and managing drawdowns
44:30 AI capex discipline in China versus the US
46:00 Stock selection in China and second-derivative opportunities
51:00 Portfolio construction, benchmarks, and risk management
58:00 Blind Squirrel Macro, live shows, and ongoing research