Excess Returns

In this episode, we sit down with Leigh Drogen of StarKiller Capital, alongside guest co-host Kai Wu, for a deep dive into crypto investing strategies, momentum in digital assets, and market-neutral DeFi yield opportunities. Leigh shares his perspective on where we are in the crypto evolution, the parallels with past technology cycles, and how to survive and advance in one of the most volatile asset classes in the world. From time-series and cross-sectional momentum to the economics of yield farming, this is a comprehensive look at building systematic strategies in digital assets.

Topics Covered:

• The parallels between Web1 → Web2 and today’s crypto transition

• Why the “fat protocol” thesis is giving way to the “fat app” era

• The role of Bitcoin vs. Ethereum in the next stage of crypto adoption

• The “survive and advance” investing philosophy

• Time-series momentum and cross-sectional momentum in crypto

• How VC behavior is changing momentum dynamics

• Sector-level momentum and narrowing lookback periods

• StarKiller’s approach to asset selection and quality screens

• Building a market-neutral DeFi yield strategy

• Bootstrapping network effects and early liquidity provisioning

• Diligence, counterparty risk, and managing protocol risk

• The competitive landscape and where the biggest edges remain in crypto

Timestamps:
00:00 – Crypto’s infrastructure milestones and evolution
02:53 – The “fat protocol” vs. “fat app” thesis
08:09 – Bitcoin’s role vs. Ethereum’s potential
14:20 – “Survive and advance” and limiting drawdowns
19:20 – Time-series vs. cross-sectional momentum
23:00 – VC selling behavior and regime change in momentum
31:47 – Sector-level momentum trends
36:13 – Shorter lookback periods and market speed
39:56 – StarKiller’s investable universe and filtering process
48:00 – Designing a market-neutral DeFi yield strategy
52:56 – Rewards farming and bootstrapping network effects
58:00 – Market-making vaults and APR opportunities
01:00:10 – Managing counterparty and protocol risk
01:04:02 – Has crypto alpha become more competitive?
01:07:41 – One lesson for the average investor

How Aswath Damodaran Manages His Own Portfolio | Show Us Your Portfolio

In this episode of our Show Us Your Portfolio series, we go inside the personal investing approach of Aswath Damodaran — the “Dean of Valuation.” Known for his expertise in corporate valuation, Aswath rarely discusses how he manages his own money. We cover his philosophy, asset allocation, position sizing rules, lifecycle diversification, and the lessons he’s learned from decades of investing his own wealth.

What you’ll learn in this episode:

• The core mission that drives Aswath’s investing decisions

• How he thinks about risk, concentration, and position sizing

• Why he avoids bonds and focuses on equity appreciation

• His approach to strategic vs. tactical investing

• The role of lifecycle diversification in portfolio construction

• How he decides when to buy and sell individual stocks

• Why luck plays such a big role in investing results

• His views on international exposure, dividends, gold, crypto, and alternative assets

• Personal spending habits and what he values most outside of investing

Timestamps:
00:00 – Investing’s end game: preserve and grow wealth
03:25 – How life stage changes investment approach
07:41 – Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio
08:47 – Why he holds no bonds
10:12 – The power of compounding
12:25 – Separating portfolio from income needs
15:02 – Strategic vs. tactical investing
18:00 – Managing concentration risk and trimming winners
20:30 – Market concentration & the Mag 7
25:31 – How he buys and sells stocks
32:46 – Hit rate and lessons from decades of investing
37:26 – Lifecycle diversification
41:00 – U.S. vs. international investing
43:22 – Dividend investing
45:35 – Gold, crypto, and alternative assets
53:15 – What he drives and his ESG take
54:39 – Spending for joy
56:00 – Key investing advice for individuals
57:37 – Life outside markets & creative thinking time

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Nick Maggiulli — author of Just Keep Buying and his new book The Wealth Ladder. Nick shares his six-level framework for building wealth, why mobility between wealth levels is rarer than most people think, and how your financial strategy should evolve as your net worth grows. From grocery freedom to travel freedom, and from the risks of ego to the realities of taxes and investing at different stages, this conversation offers a practical guide to managing and growing wealth at any level.

Topics Covered:

• The six levels of wealth and how to move between them

• “Grocery freedom,” “restaurant freedom,” and “travel freedom”

• Why moving down wealth levels is rare — and why moving up is harder than you think

• Strategies for Level 2: the role of education and income growth

• Strategies for Level 3: shifting focus to investing and compounding

• The importance of diversification, taxes, and risk management at higher levels

• How ego can derail wealth preservation

• Behavioral shifts needed when your portfolio outpaces your income

• The impact of interest rates, taxes, and spending habits on mobility

• Planning for unknown future liabilities

Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction to The Wealth Ladder framework
01:40 – Grocery freedom, restaurant freedom, and travel freedom
05:26 – Why moving down wealth levels is rare
09:20 – Strategies for moving from Level 2 to Level 3
15:35 – Shifting from income growth to investing focus
24:24 – Diversification and risk management in Level 4
33:20 – Ego as the most expensive thing some people own
39:15 – Interest rates, taxes, and spending across levels
46:00 – Planning for unknown future liabilities
50:45 – Wealth mobility across generations

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital to explore one of the most important and overlooked aspects of Warren Buffett’s investing evolution: his shift from tangible to intangible value. Based on Kai’s research paper “Buffett’s Intangible Moats,” we examine how Buffett's portfolio has evolved alongside the economy — and why the intangible drivers of brand equity, intellectual property, human capital, and network effects are central to understanding his success. Kai also shares how quantitative methods can be used to replicate Buffett’s approach and what this means for investors today.

Topics Covered:

• The three eras of Buffett’s portfolio evolution: industrial, consumer, and information age

• Why Buffett’s shift away from deep value investing began earlier than most realize

• How Charlie Munger helped change Buffett’s approach — and why that mattered

• Buffett’s preference for intangible assets like brand, IP, and network effects

• How to quantify intangible value and its four key components

• Surprising stats: Buffett rarely buys below book value and holds high price-to-book stocks

• Kai’s framework for building an intangible value score across stocks

• Factor attribution: quality and intangible value explain most of Buffett’s alpha

• The impact of portfolio size, sector biases, and evolution of circle of competence

• How to replicate Buffett’s approach using a systematic, factor-based strategy

• Why intangible value may be the "quality of tomorrow" and a forward-looking moat

Timestamps:

00:00 – Buffett’s evolution from value to intangible investor
01:55 – Why Kai researched Buffett’s investing style now
04:00 – The three eras of Buffett: Geico, Coca-Cola, Apple
08:15 – How Buffett’s thinking changed under Munger’s influence
10:00 – The rise of intangible moats and Buffett’s definition of economic goodwill
13:10 – Four components of intangible value
15:10 – Mapping Buffett’s holdings to intangible assets over time
17:30 – Does Buffett get enough credit for evolving?
20:30 – Only 8% of his holdings were bought below book value
24:00 – Average price-to-book of Buffett's portfolio is 8
26:00 – Defining Kai’s intangible value factor
27:50 – Buffett becomes a value investor again — just using a different metric
30:00 – Circle of competence vs. expanding opportunity set
33:00 – Today’s portfolio is 75% intangible by Kai’s framework
34:45 – Decomposing Buffett’s returns into factors
38:00 – Quality and intangible value explain 90% of Buffett’s alpha
43:15 – Sector exposure vs. true value tilt
49:00 – Intangible value as a leading indicator of quality
52:00 – Building a Buffett-style quant portfolio using two key factors
54:00 – Why Buffett’s future returns may be more muted

📈 In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA and author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street. We explore Sam’s timeless, data-driven investing rules and connect them to today’s market environment—including sector trends, interest rates, Fed policy, investor behavior, and why market history is one of the most underrated tools for navigating uncertainty. This conversation blends historical perspective with practical insights, making it essential viewing for long-term investors and students of market behavior alike.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• The power of rules-based investing and emotional discipline

• Why momentum often beats mean reversion in sectors

• The predictive value of January market performance

• How AI hype is shaping today’s market narrative

• Whether “Sell in May” still works—and what to do instead

• The case for value investing and high-quality dividend stocks

• A simple two-sector portfolio that beat tech (with less risk)

• Whether the 60/40 portfolio is still viable

• The failure of equal weight and small caps to outperform recently

• How to manage fear and stay invested during volatile markets

• What history teaches about Fed rate cuts and market returns

• A momentum strategy for finding “bull markets somewhere”

• Sam’s top lesson for the average investor

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Market performance after strong Januaries
02:00 – Let your winners ride, cut losers short
04:45 – Current sector winners and market concentration
06:30 – As goes January, so goes the year
09:00 – Why Year 3 of bull markets tends to be weak
11:00 – How AI fits into today’s bull case
12:30 – Sell in May—but rotate instead of retreat
14:30 – Why value investing has struggled
16:00 – Tech as the new consumer staple?
17:45 – A free lunch: Tech + staples portfolio
20:30 – The 60/40 portfolio and inflation hedging
22:20 – Don’t get mad, get even (equal weight vs. cap weight)
24:00 – Managing emotions and using history as Valium
26:20 – Don’t fight the Fed: Rate cuts and market returns
28:30 – CFRA’s Fed outlook for the second half
29:40 – There’s always a bull market somewhere
31:20 – Sam’s #1 lesson for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Grant Williams for a wide-ranging conversation on what he calls the “Hundred Year Pivot.” Grant shares his view that we are living through a once-in-a-century inflection point — a deep, structural shift that is reshaping markets, institutions, societal values, and even individual behavior. This isn’t about predicting the next trade; it’s about understanding the tectonic changes happening beneath the surface and how investors can adapt, survive, and eventually thrive.

🔍 Topics covered in this episode:

• What the “Hundred Year Pivot” really means

• Why trust is the foundation of everything — and why it’s cracking

• The loss of long-standing institutions and belief systems

• How the freezing of Russian assets triggered a global monetary rethink

• Why central banks are buying gold like never before

• Why “buy the dip” might be a dangerous relic of a past era

• The return of capital preservation as a core investing principle

• How community, religion, and localism are resurfacing

• The psychology of luck, risk, and staying rich

• What gives Grant hope, despite the darkness of this turning

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – The hundred-year pivot and deep structural change
04:00 – Financial nihilism and the breakdown of institutional trust
11:00 – The freezing of Russian assets and its global implications
14:00 – Central banks, gold, and the unraveling of the dollar system
23:00 – From 40 years of tailwinds to a harder investing environment
27:00 – Why “buy the dip” is getting more dangerous
33:00 – Capital preservation vs. capital accumulation
40:00 – Societal change, community assets, and the new investment mindset
54:00 – Grant’s reason for optimism

In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and special guest host Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital are joined by Verdad’s Dan Rasmussen for a deep dive into the hidden risks lurking in private equity—and why they may be more dangerous than investors realize.

Rasmussen, a long-time critic of the asset class, explains why the allure of illiquidity, stale pricing, and past outperformance has led to dangerous capital misallocations. Along the way, we explore the origins of the Yale model, the current liquidity crunch, volatility laundering, and whether small-cap value could be the better bet today. We also dig into bubbles, biotech, and whether AI will concentrate or diffuse economic power.

🔑 Topics covered:

• Why private equity may not be what investors think it is

• The original logic of the Yale model—and how it’s broken today

• Leverage, small company risk, and the illusion of low volatility

• How private equity portfolios are “money traps” in disguise

• Small-cap value as public market private equity

• Why biotech could be the next overlooked opportunity

• How innovation bubbles spark long-term progress

• AI’s capital intensity and implications for Big Tech dominance

• Behavioral risks in institutional vs. retail investing

📍 Timestamps:
00:00 – Why private equity could be a money trap
03:00 – The over-allocation to small, low-margin, highly levered companies
07:25 – Why private equity’s popularity may signal poor future returns
14:30 – The Yale Model’s origin story and how it morphed
19:25 – Collapse in private equity distributions
23:34 – Volatility laundering and misleading risk metrics
27:00 – What happens when private equity goes public
31:00 – Do lockups help investor behavior—or prevent learning?
35:10 – Could small-cap value be a better alternative to private equity?
42:00 – Why biotech is the most beaten-up corner of small caps
47:00 – Bubbles, innovation, and the role of speculative excess
51:00 – AI, capital intensity, and a return to economic gravity
54:00 – Will AI empower monopolies or smaller players?

Macro strategist Darius Dale returns to Excess Returns with a deep dive into the seismic shifts shaping markets today. From the implications of the Fourth Turning to the systemic risks of fiscal dominance, Dale shares how he’s helping investors stay on the right side of market risk using quantitative tools and macro insights from 42 Macro. This episode covers everything from inflation, tariffs, and AI to a systematic framework for navigating regime change in real time. Whether you're a retail investor or an institutional pro, this conversation is packed with insights that matter.

🔍 In This Episode:

• The Fourth Turning’s impact on markets and society

• Why inflation, income inequality, and geopolitical turmoil are converging

• How Darius's market regime model (Dr. Mo) systematically adapts to risk

• What the “KISS” model portfolio is—and how it outperforms 60/40

• Why recession models failed and how Darius sees the economy now

• The overlooked growth shock from policy—not just tariffs

• How AI may shift the economic power structure even more dramatically

• Why he believes the long-term outlook is structurally bullish (despite the chaos)

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Opening macro warning and Fourth Turning setup
02:44 – Darius on working with Neil Howe and implications of generational shifts
04:13 – How the Fourth Turning creates fiscal dominance and financial repression
08:21 – Explaining the market regime system and Dr. Mo
14:33 – What institutions get wrong and how volatility front-runs momentum
17:13 – The origin of 42 Macro and mission to democratize institutional-grade tools
18:35 – Case study: When the model turned bullish in April
21:23 – Why tariffs don’t derail the model
23:41 – Why recession signals failed & how Dale reads the cycle differently
30:13 – Why Dale is still pounding the table on U.S. resilience
35:11 – Paradigm A → B → C: the evolution of economic policy under pressure
43:49 – Will AI fuel an i-shaped economy? Or something better?
50:28 – Inside the “KISS” model portfolio and its 25% average annual return

🔗 Learn more at 42macro.com
📊 Follow Darius Dale on X: @42macroDDale

In this episode of Excess Returns, Mike Green returns to dissect the structural transformation underway in public markets due to the rise of passive investing. He explains why “there’s no such thing as a passive investor,” how inelastic flows distort prices, and what it means for valuation, volatility, and the long-term sustainability of equity markets. From the math behind market multipliers to the policy distortions driving mega-cap dominance, Mike walks through the macro, micro, and behavioral implications of passive flows — and what investors and policymakers need to do about it.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• Why passive investing isn’t truly passive

• The origins and impact of the inelastic market hypothesis

• How passive flows distort price discovery

• The shift from mean reversion to mean expansion in markets

• Multipliers and the mechanics of how flows drive prices

• Why market efficiency is breaking down at scale

• The hidden risks of passive-dominant market structure

• Target date funds and their unintended consequences

• The fragility of valuations under passive dominance

• The problem with IPO scarcity and capital misallocation

• Options strategies for convex tails and market drift

• Why the Fed and regulators may act — and what could trigger it

• Bitcoin and private markets as new flow-driven regimes

• How policy and tax advantages have reshaped capitalism

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – "There’s no such thing as a passive investor"
01:05 – The origins of Mike’s work on passive flows
03:00 – Bill Sharpe vs. Lasse Pedersen on passive flaws
06:00 – Index rebalancing and the illusion of passivity
07:00 – The rise of flow-based (demand-side) asset pricing
10:00 – Why EMH broke down under scale
12:00 – The human layer markets forgot
14:30 – The math behind price multipliers (5x to 25x)
17:00 – Market efficiency vs. market distortion
20:00 – Meta, index drift, and fake efficiency
23:00 – What individual investors should do
25:00 – The Mag 7 and extreme multiplier effects
27:00 – Options and convex tail risk management
29:00 – Mike’s 2016 survey on marginal buying behavior
31:00 – The shift from mean reversion to mean expansion
33:30 – When the music stops: wealth-to-income dynamics
35:00 – Theoretical crash under net withdrawals
36:00 – Why the boomer selloff thesis is flawed
39:00 – The overlooked risk: wealthy investors exiting actives
41:00 – Public vs. private equity concentration
43:00 – Why policy response is likely (and how it may look)
46:00 – Political power vs. market dominance
49:00 – Bitcoin, passive ETFs, and flow-driven pricing
52:00 – Private equity in 401(k)s — implications and risks
57:00 – The unintended outcomes of inflated valuations
59:00 – The hollowing out of the public equity bid
1:01:00 – How Vanguard’s 2015 rebalancing moved the market
1:04:00 – Valuation opacity and future withdrawals
1:07:00 – What Mike is working on now and next steps

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In the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The Jim Paulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that define today's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for why the private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may not be on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despite record index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, the underappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, and the risks posed by policy uncertainty.

Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, or just trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts, and contrarian insight.