Excess Returns

The process of using past fundamentals to try to predict future prices has been in place for a very long time, and there is substantial academic evidence to support it. One of the major challenges of it; however, is what happens when we are confronted with breaking points that are so large that a company’s past results prior to it occurring might tell us very little about what it will look like after. The current situation with COVID-19 might be the most significant situation of this type that any of us will experience in our investing lifetimes.

In this episode, we look at the impact of COVID-19 on value investing and offer some practical tips for building a value portfolio during a time like this. 

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

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In this week's episode we shift gears a little from our usual investing focus. We wanted to spend some time talking about the current COVID-19 crisis and its impact on all of us as people. To do that, we brought in an expert of human psychology and behavioral finance, Dr. Daniel Crosby. Daniel is the author of the Behavioral Investor and the Chief Behavioral Officer at Brinker Capital. 

In the interview, we discuss what we are going through as a society with the COVID-19 crisis, how we can all learn to better cope with the stress it brings, and the impact it will have on our behavior in the future.  We also talk about its impact on us as investors and discuss Daniel's process to help investors avoid making bad decisions during times like these. We hope you enjoy the discussion. 

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Whenever we are confronted with a bear market, we all want to figure out how it will play out. We want to know how big the decline will be. We want to know when it will end. We want to know what stocks we should buy to limit losses during it and to outperform the market after it. To answer these questions, our minds tend to point us to the simplest solution we can find. That solution is often to find the bear market in history that was most comparable to this one, and to assume that what happened then will also happen now. But there is a major flaw in that argument: no two bear markets are alike.

In  this week's episode, we discuss the dangers of trying to compare the current bear market to past declines, and compare and contrast some historical bear markets with what is going on now. 

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Whenever any of us analyze the decisions we make in investing, there is always a tendency to think that what we end up knowing in retrospect was obvious at the time. There is a tendency to believe that decisions that we could have made were easier than they actually were. But that’s just not the way things work, especially when we are faced with high stress situations and very uncertain outcomes, which is the situation we all face today.

In this episode, we discuss the challenge of analyzing the current market environment and how what might seem obvious in retrospect is far from it today. 

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this week’s Excess Returns, we are trying something new. In addition to our regular episodes, we have decided to periodically talk to some of the people we respect most in the investment community to get their insights on the issues facing investors today.  For our first conversation, we talk to our friend Tobias Carlisle about value investing. Toby is probably the smartest value investor we know. He is the author of four books on value, including the Acquirer’s Multiple. He is also the founder of Acquirer’s Funds. In the conversation, we talk about the things that led to his interest in value investing and try to put the current struggles of value into context. We hope you enjoy the conversation.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Confirmation bias is one of the most damaging biases in investing. All of us want to be right. We all want to think that opinions that disagree with ours don’t have sensible arguments to support them. So we gravitate toward people who agree with ours. Whether it be in our personal relationships, or our virtual ones through things like social media, we all unconsciously want to seek out validation that proves that what we thought all along is correct. But during times like these that can be a major problem. In this episode, we discuss some of our current beliefs, and why they might be wrong. 

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

There are many ways to manage risk in a portfolio. Traditional methods like blending stocks with bonds will work for most investors, but more creative methods can also make sense in some cases. One thing all risk management techniques have in common though, is that they come with trade offs. In this episode we look at some popular risk management approaches, and some lesser known ones, and examine the pros and cons of each. In addition to a traditional blended stock and bond approach, we also discuss the Permanent Portfolio, and more advanced quantitative approaches like Trend Following, Protective Asset Allocation and Generalized Protective Momentum.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

With the market in the midst of a significant decline and uncertainty reaching levels we haven't seen in many years, we have received many questions about what is going on, and where we go from here. So we decided to do a Q&A episode to do our best to answer some of these questions. In this bonus episode, we talk about why the market has fallen so quickly, whether stocks are cheap after the recent decline, and whether can can rely on past fundamental data to pick stocks in a time like this. We hope you enjoy this bonus episode. If you have any questions you would like answered in future episodes, please email them to [email protected]. 

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The argument that investors should stay the course during market declines is an easy one to make. It also in most cases is the correct one, since figuring out when to get out of the market, and when to get back in, is very difficult for most investors to do. Despite the strength of the stay the course argument, those of us who make it can sometimes fail to deliver it with the proper recognition of the pain that most investors feel during market declines. In this episode, we talk about some important lessons to keep in mind during market panics and some strategies investors can use to manage them. 

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The long-term evidence to support factor investing is compelling. Academic work has shown that factors like value and momentum have produced an excess return relative to the market over time. But what occurred in the most recent decade was in many ways the opposite of what has happened over the long-term. Almost anything an investor did to get away from buying large growth companies over that period was a detraction from returns. In this episode, we try to put the struggles of factor investing in context and talk about some lessons we can learn from this difficult decade. 

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau