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Record-tight feeder supplies meet record-heavy carcass weights and a falling cutout, creating a tense setup where front-end inventories swell just as seasonal patterns should ease. We unpack the Mexico border closure, regional cash spreads, demand risk at record retail prices, and the surprise shift in futures positioning.

• impact of Mexican border closure on feeder supplies
• divergence between Southern Plains and Northern on-feed inventories
• placements down, marketings down, front-end supplies up
• record carcass weights and feeder leverage erosion
• blended cutout’s sharp August rally and September slide
• Nebraska premium flipping to a discount versus Kansas
• consumer demand at record retail beef prices
• hogs open interest topping cattle and what it implies
• cheaper feed from larger corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies
• macro overhang from a possible government shutdown

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Thank you, Tommy G