FiveThirtyEight Politics

Two extras for your holiday weekend: the latest in our collaboration with On The Media, and then an interview producer Galen Druke did with the pollster Frank Luntz.

We try to set some basic rules for the home stretch of the election. NYC: Come to our live show on Sept 19th! Info at fivethirtyeight.com/live

We are checking in on FiveThirtyEight's prediction model every other Friday. Nate Silver talks to Micah Cohen about how the numbers have moved and why.

Trump aired his first TV ad of the general election last week, but Clinton has already spent millions on them. We compare how the campaigns are spending their cash.

The number of Republicans publicly supporting Clinton is on the rise. We look at who is most likely to crossover and whether they will affect Clinton's platform.

We discuss the return of "unskewed" polls, whether Clinton's big lead is the new normal, and talk to Julia Azari about why this is the perfect year for third parties.

It's 100 days until Elections Day. After two weeks on the road, the podcast crew looks at the forecast's latest ups and downs. fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts

Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and Jody Avirgan talk about the third day of the DNC, which featured president Obama, and preview tonight's Hillary Clinton speech.

Our politics podcast crew finds a corner of the DNC to debrief Hillary Clinton's acceptance speech, who she's targeting, and what comes to expect from day one of the general.

Harry and Nate join On Point with Tom Ashbrook to discuss the tightening polls and the fact that - if the election were held today - Donald Trump would be slightly favored.