FiveThirtyEight Politics

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew breaks down the results of the special election in New York's 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Tom Suozzi beat Republican Mazi Pilip in a race to replace former Rep. George Santos.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Voters in New York's 3rd Congressional District are heading to the polls on Tuesday to choose a replacement for former Rep. George Santos. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses the dynamics at play in the most high profile special election this year. They also look at Americans' perceptions of President Joe Biden's age, after a special counsel report described him as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” and they talk about what comes next in the politics of border security.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What is the most valuable data point to watch heading into the 2024 presidential election? This week on the 538 Politics podcast, we interviewed more than a dozen experts — pollsters, political scientists, data journalists — and asked them this one question. Their combined answers paint a picture of which variables will most influence the election this November. Galen and his guests cover voters' shifting perceptions of the two candidates, issues and key demographics that could make or break them, and the importance of "double haters," voters who have negative opinions of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How much influence does Taylor Swift actually have? Would her endorsement in a presidential election move voters? Has her presence at NFL games already created new fans among young women? Some have used polling to suggest it has, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask "good or bad use of polling?"

The crew also looks at some of the minor primary contests between now and the South Carolina Republican presidential primary and spotlights the biggest takeaways from last quarter's campaign fundraising numbers.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The conventional wisdom is that the economy and a president’s fate are closely tied. For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, part of the story has been that despite a strong labor market and economic growth, views of the economy and Biden’s handling of it have been abysmal.

A lot of that likely had to do with inflation, rising interest rates and a declining stock market. Trends that, as of right now, have abated and even reversed. So what’s happened over the past three years and where are we headed? And what does all of that mean for November 2024?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Joanne Hsu, who directs the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and Neale Mahoney, economics professor at Stanford University.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew explores the thorny negotiations surrounding immigration and border security in Washington. Galen talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research; Rachael Bade, author of POLITICO Playbook; and Leah Askarinam, 538 politics reporter. Together, the crew discusses evolving public sentiment on immigration, explores proposed policy changes and guesses what Americans think about the political landscape right now. Later in the show, Galen is joined by G. Elliott Morris, 538’s director of data analytics, to uncover more about how 538's pollster ratings are determined and reveal what are the best pollsters in America.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In a late-night New Hampshire primary reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew concludes that the GOP primary is basically over, even if not literally. They dig into the results and exit poll data to describe the coalitions that backed Trump and Haley and explain why this was Haley's best shot at scoring a win.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Republican primary is officially a two-person race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew talks about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropping out of the presidential race, expectations for New Hampshire and the future of the Republican primary. They also consider whether a poll asking New Hampshire residents how well they understand the 14th Amendment is a good use of polling.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary quickly approaching, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast heads to the Granite State. Galen speaks with Annmarie Timmins, Senior Reporter at the New Hampshire Bulletin, and Neil Levesque, Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, about the potentially competitive contest between frontrunner former President Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, as well as the nuances of New Hampshire’s electorate.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crew reacts to former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa, as well as the race for second place, in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis edged out former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices