FiveThirtyEight Politics

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews Election Day 2023, focusing on competitive statewide elections in two very Republican-leaning states — Kentucky and Mississippi. They also consider the value of a recent poll that asked whether we live in a "big, beautiful world, mostly full of good people" or if "our lives are threatened by terrorists, criminals, and illegal immigrants.”

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The former congressman and recent Texas transplant joins the podcast to discuss his new book, “Renegade: Defending Democracy and Liberty In Our Divided Country.” He reflects on the current state of the Republican Party, how things could change, and why he's not done with politics just yet.

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The pool of candidates running for president grew by one and shrank by one in the past week. President Biden got a little-known Democratic challenger in Dean Phillips, a congressman from Minnesota. And former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his campaign for president after struggling to get above the mid-single digits during his 5-month-long bid.

In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses those latest developments in the presidential race. They also look at what we know about new House Speaker Mike Johnson and what challenges lie ahead for him. And they preview Election Day 2023.

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The House of Representatives has officially been without a permanent speaker for 20 days. After Rep. Steve Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan failed to get enough support, nine new Republican candidates have stepped forward to run for the speakership. In this installment of the podcast, the crew drafts teams of who they think is most likely to fill the position.

Then, Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer joins Galen Druke to talk about why it has been so hard to get good, clear information about the war between Israel and Hamas. Last week, false reports that Israel had struck a hospital in Gaza City and killed hundreds spread online and across the mainstream media, leading to a breakdown in negotiations between President Biden and Arab leaders.

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In this installment of the podcast, the crew looks at the latest polling on how Americans are reacting to the Hamas attacks in Israel and ongoing war in Gaza. They also check in on the speaker’s race in Washington and look at a polling experiment conducted by a conservative PAC hoping to prevent former President Donald Trump from winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

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The Hamas attacks on Israel dominated American politics over the weekend, with candidates and politicians sharing their reactions to the violence and now ongoing war. In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about how the conflict is shaping politics in Washington and on the campaign trail.

They also discuss some recent notable developments in domestic politics: Last week, President Biden appeared to reluctantly pivot on his administration's approach to border security in south Texas, by clearing the way to build 20 miles of wall. On Monday, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that he is launching an independent bid for the presidency in 2024. And lastly, the crew takes a look at 538's newly published Republican primary polling averages in the early states.

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The government did not shut down over the weekend, contrary to the expectations of many. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the congressional machinations that led to a 45-day extension of current funding and why it could create problems for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

They also consider whether California's senator-designate, Laphonza Butler, will run for election in 2024. Then they look at the data behind a viral TikTok trend suggesting that men think about the Roman Empire significantly more than women and give tips for thinking about outlier polls.

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The crew reacts to the second Republican presidential primary debate in this late night podcast.

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We are at an awkward moment in electoral politics. When it comes to the Republican primary, while there are plenty of alternatives to former President Donald Trump, none of them have gained serious traction. When it comes to Democrats, despite consternation about President Biden’s age and electability, he has no serious primary challengers.

More than a year out from the presidential election, it seems like the writing is on the wall, that electoral politics are frozen in place, and few people are happy about it. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with American politics professor Lynn Vavreck to help make sense of how we got here.

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Welcome aboard the Acela, listeners. Today on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we are taking a break from the campaign trail and heading to Washington, D.C., where there’s quite a lot going on.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced last week that Republicans are opening an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. There are also just 12 days until a possible government shutdown. And some Republicans are threatening McCarthy's speakership.

Politics reporter Leah Askarinam and POLITICO Playbook co-author and ABC News contributor Rachael Bade join Galen Druke to discuss. They also play a round of "Quiz of the Union," where they try to put this year's higher-than-usual number of strikes in the context of public opinion.

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