FiveThirtyEight Politics

The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling."

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The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting.

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In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. In her new book “How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them,” Barbara F Walter writes “we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.” It’s a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it.

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The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted.

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In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today.

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The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears.

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President Biden’s $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The crew discusses Manchin’s rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged.

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According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent.

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Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data."

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On today’s Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. So, the usual.

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