FiveThirtyEight Politics

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver explains how to judge the model's performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.

We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our House forecast.

We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our House forecast.

We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our Senate forecast.

We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to "buy, sell, or hold" the odds in our Senate forecast.

There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they'll play a big role in Americans' lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.

There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they'll play a big role in Americans' lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.

The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.

The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn't use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.