In our weekly series From the Furrow, host Mike McGinnis and fellow grain geeks shed light on current market conditions and how grain producers can take action to manage their risk.
This week, Mike is joined by Cooper Frambes, Grain Merchandiser with Prairie Central Cooperative, and Verl Prather, Director of Buyer Relations with Ever.Ag. How long can farmers hold onto old-crop supplies in hopes of higher prices? How are buyers positioning themselves to pick up bushels ahead of harvest? Mike, Cooper and Verl discuss those topics and a whole lot more.
Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].
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00;00;00;13 – 00;00;17;00
VOICEOVER
Futures trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the segment is not for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Opinions and statements of guests not affiliated with every egg of their own, and do not reflect the views of the brand. The accuracy of their statements can not be guaranteed by a Barack.
00;00;17;02 – 00;00;38;22
MIKE
Hello and welcome to From the Furrow, brought to you by Everythig Insights. Each week we talk with subject matter experts on news and topics affecting the grain markets. I’m your host, Mike McGinnis. Let’s get started with the date today of July 24th. That’s the date we are actually recording this program and we have two guests today. Cooper Franz’s Grain Merchandizer of Prairie Central Co-op in Chenoa, Illinois.
00;00;38;23 – 00;00;44;21
MIKE
Meanwhile, Vera Prather, director of buyer relations, forever AG. Also joining us today and welcome to the program.
00;00;44;25 – 00;00;46;08
COOPER
Yeah, thanks for having me on, Mike.
00;00;46;10 – 00;00;47;16
VERL
00;00;47;18 – 00;01;07;10
MIKE
Let’s get to it. First off the topic today, of course, as you might imagine, is buying grain. Recent rallies spark some cash sales from farmers. Selling though kept the rallies as prices backed off just after the selling occurred. Plus, market watchers are still seeing us corn yields at 181 bushels per acre and soybean yields at 52 bushels per acre.
00;01;07;11 – 00;01;18;25
MIKE
This would add to already big carryout. New buying interest is needed, according to some analysts that I talked to. The first question were we’ll start with Cooper. Give us a feel for how the crops are doing in your area.
00;01;18;28 – 00;01;38;11
COOPER
Yeah. So we were in need of a rain here. Probably still are. We just got a ten minute shower downpour. I don’t know how much of it will soak in, but up to this point, we’ve been looking okay. Weren’t planted in ideal conditions. We might it in some spots, but we’ve got some timely rains. We cooled off through pollination for corn, and now it’s just trying to fill this thing out.
00;01;38;12 – 00;01;41;18
MIKE
Geographically, where in Illinois are you located?
00;01;41;20 – 00;02;03;19
COOPER
We are located in Chicago, Illinois, north of Bloomington Normal on I-55. Our draw our territory stretches south to Lexington, Illinois, north to just west of the white there. And it’s far west as Flanigan, Chenault area and meadows. Then out to the east, you know, following highway 24 and wing, Sangamon, Remington, a Cooper.
00;02;03;19 – 00;02;08;26
MIKE
You’re being pretty modest because that’s some of the best soil in the country. Correct. In McLean County or near there?
00;02;08;29 – 00;02;12;00
COOPER
Yeah. Some of the best producing counties for corn and beans.
00;02;12;02 – 00;02;15;16
MIKE
That’s right. And Viera, what about your area and what are the crops look like?
00;02;15;17 – 00;02;37;04
VERL
Yes. I’m not too far south. Cooper down 55, about an hour. And things are looking pretty good here. Like Cooper said, we had some temps that have backed off as we’ve gotten into the middle of July here, and it certainly seemed to benefit the pollination time frame. All the folks been speaking with, they’re pretty pleased with what they’re seeing out their window.
00;02;37;05 – 00;02;57;08
MIKE
Well, let’s take a look at the question, of course, is going to be how long can grain buyers hold out and how long can farmers wait for better prices? But the latest quarterly stocks report showed farmers have 37% more corn on on farm storage as of June 1st versus last year. That means 3 billion bushels are stored on farm and about 2 billion bushels in commercial storage.
00;02;57;08 – 00;03;07;25
MIKE
So let’s start with you, Cooper. As far as your grain buying approach, how long can grain buyers not have farmers sell to them? We have seen a little blip of cash sales, but not a lot.
00;03;08;01 – 00;03;25;07
COOPER
Yeah. So when thinking grain buyers or end users, I was in their shoes at once and well, I’m still green buyer today, but not an end user. They’re running the numbers on what they need to stretch this thing out until new crop starts to hit their scale. So they’re running those numbers every day. How much more they need to buy.
00;03;25;07 – 00;03;47;15
COOPER
And they know based off the USDA reports, what is still sitting out there on the farm. It feels like a game of chicken some days. You know who’s going to blink here. You know, we still see some hot basis markets. Farmers reluctant to sell their grain. And everybody’s trying to plan for harvest. At the same time. What will move before harvest and what will the farmer carry and what will the commercial be forced or allowed to carry here?
00;03;47;21 – 00;03;55;04
MIKE
So as a grain buyer, how does your approach to buying differ this year than last year? What are the differences and maybe what are the similarities?
00;03;55;08 – 00;04;12;28
COOPER
It doesn’t feel too different. You know, last year it’d be coming out of a couple of in and versus here in the past few years it’s been trying to get these bushels in and ship back out seemingly as fast as possible. You know, we’ve been in a transition here this year. So overall it does not feel, you know, different for us anyways.
00;04;13;01 – 00;04;21;13
MIKE
So do you get this sense or feeling of having to bid up or having to pry this grain out of the farmers hands in your area, not.
00;04;21;13 – 00;04;44;15
COOPER
Necessarily prior to other hands, but just put ourselves in a position where we are going to be able to handle, and that’s if the farmer chooses to do so. Bring those bushels off the farm, how to handle that right before harvest. And that’s a question I think the industry is trying to answer. If these bushels move to market before harvest, you know, that pipeline before and we know it’s coming in 60 days or so where those bushels need to be moved and who carries it into harvest.
00;04;44;15 – 00;04;59;28
MIKE
Well, let’s move to Earl. What are your thoughts from the folks that you talked to in the Western Corn Belt? There are reports that there are some really attractive basis prices in the Western Corn Belt. If buyers can’t get those farmers to sell, will corn be pulled from the Eastern Corn Belt?
00;05;00;06 – 00;05;23;25
VERL
Yeah. So a lot of what Cooper is saying rings true out west as well. You know, we’ve got a lot of folks that are looking at logistics as we approach harvest, and there’s certainly some acrobatics to be performed in that direction. As far as nearby goes, it seems like a lot of these processors west of the Mississippi are still very hand-to-mouth when it comes to their book of incoming grain.
00;05;23;25 – 00;05;56;26
VERL
So we have seen, you know, some processing plants get in a little bit of a pickle and are forced to bid up in order to encourage those bushels to come to town. And we’ve seen corn move quite a distance, to be perfectly honest, even by truck. So we are, you know, seeing that a lot of these ethanol plants especially have some pretty big pull, and especially in areas that had a little bit weaker of a crop last year, you know, we are starting to hear of some more folks kind of panic selling, if you will, and just letting go of what’s left and moving on.
00;05;56;26 – 00;06;07;15
VERL
But all in all, it feels like there’s still a lot of corn out there. I think that, you know, the producers timeline to get these bushels sold is narrowing every day that passes.
00;06;07;17 – 00;06;31;12
MIKE
While speaking of a lot of corn that might be out there, some believe most of the stored corn is in the Eastern Corn Belt. And here’s why. Because the western Corn Belt corn mostly goes to Mexico by rail. Eastern Corn Belt corn flows down the Mississippi or the Ohio or the Illinois rivers to the Gulf. There have been many issues with inland waterways, so maybe that’s slowed up some of the Eastern Corn Belt from flowing or being exported.
00;06;31;12 – 00;06;40;17
MIKE
Do you see this over balance of corn between the two areas of the Corn Belt? This is a question for you, Cooper. What may this mean for your approach to buying this year?
00;06;40;19 – 00;06;58;22
COOPER
Yeah. So looking at East or West, and as Viera pointed out, there has been corn and subtle trends that we’ve seen move on different rail lines east to west. Just unorthodox, you know, rail moves, as a mentor told me, wants to call it the homogenization of basis. Basis is going to do the work to get bushels. Store needs to go.
00;06;58;23 – 00;07;19;00
COOPER
Yeah, we’ve seen that. And here in Illinois it feels like up to this point, we haven’t had the Western pull that we have had in years past on our rail assets. We feel more like a residual supplier, if you will, to backfill different logistics issues, you know, corn into Mexico and being had all the flooding and different rail lines, our outages and Dakotas and Iowa and Nebraska.
00;07;19;00 – 00;07;22;19
COOPER
So we’ve been able to backfill in New Mexico and some western Texas markets.
00;07;22;25 – 00;07;42;09
MIKE
And right now, what market factors are you watching? I’ll name a few, but you can add or subtract to them. But obviously domestic and international demand production in yields. As a grain buyer, from your perspective, what kind of market factors are you watching here? Vera mentioned the farmers panic selling episodes. I imagine railcar availability this fall might be something that you’re watching.
00;07;42;09 – 00;07;46;28
MIKE
And then, of course, the outside factors of the dollar and everybody’s watching the funds position, right?
00;07;46;28 – 00;08;05;26
COOPER
Yeah. Every one of those we try to keep in mind when making trades or trying to forecast what’s coming. A big one for us is, you know, like we talked about already, the on farm stocks fund short position leading up to this point. We’ve seen them unwind some of that position, maybe leading to the support that we found here recently in the markets.
00;08;06;01 – 00;08;10;23
MIKE
The other one I didn’t mention was local grain movement. Is that something that you are keeping an eye on as well?
00;08;10;29 – 00;08;31;21
COOPER
Yeah. Let’s trying to establish what we will receive here before harvest. What’s the farmer intend to move? What we see being sold across the scale at harvest. That’ll be key. And our store or ship decisions that we are forced to make with another big crop coming. Space will be tight. We have a lot of stocks coming into this harvest, so those decisions will be made very shortly.
00;08;31;21 – 00;08;47;21
MIKE
And do you think that this is a year shaping up to be a bottleneck type of a year where you have farmers all of the sudden, whether it’s panic selling or whether there’s bringing a bunch of crop to town all at once, you and your job is to find railcar availability or some way to buy it and then store it and then get rid of it.
00;08;47;21 – 00;08;50;19
MIKE
I mean, but do you see this bottleneck fact happening this year?
00;08;50;19 – 00;09;11;09
COOPER
There’s potential for that this year. We saw it in the East last year and got a lot harvest there. Based values got very weak on you know, eastern rail values got weak, you know, and got flat harvest. You know, if we see the team this entire crop year, it seems when is this wall of corn coming. And to this point it doesn’t feel like it’s leaked out all spring and summer.
00;09;11;09 – 00;09;21;19
COOPER
Maybe. But if there is a push to get farm corn into town before harvest, it can put a lot of commercials and users in a spot have to carry corn in some weaker basis levels.
00;09;21;23 – 00;09;25;15
MIKE
And are you hearing this same kind of talk from the folks that you talked to?
00;09;25;22 – 00;09;50;15
VERL
Yeah, that’s correct. I think everybody’s just trying to kind of see what’s coming down the pipeline. And we’ve got to remember that just because bushels are in town at commercial facilities, such as, you know, June 1st, they said what was 2 billion bushels were off farm corn specifically. You know, if those bushels aren’t sold by the producer, you know, the commercial hands are tied, they’re not able to move unsold bushels.
00;09;50;15 – 00;10;13;20
VERL
So even if the producer, you know, does start moving out of the farm bin and bring some to town, they may not be priced right. And so we’ve got to consider that as well. So kind of what Cooper is talking about is if the commercial has all these bushels that are on priced and they’re forced to carry and now the producer is hoping to harvest their crop and bring that to town also.
00;10;13;20 – 00;10;16;28
VERL
Well, there’s got to be somewhere for all that corn to set.
00;10;16;28 – 00;10;28;19
COOPER
And you’re seeing that today. You know, different elevators trying to get bushels priced or converted to DP, which as we know transfers title to the elevator and they are able to sell and ship that bushel.
00;10;28;25 – 00;10;35;28
MIKE
Well, it should be interesting to see how this thing plays out this fall. Cooper if you don’t mind, we’d like to check back with you at some point to see how things are going.
00;10;36;00 – 00;10;36;20
COOPER
00;10;36;25 – 00;10;40;06
MIKE
Well, thank you, Cooper, again for joining us in virtual. Thank you too.
00;10;40;07 – 00;10;42;06
COOPER
Thanks for having me. Look forward to the next time.
00;10;42;07 – 00;10;42;17
VERL
00;10;42;17 – 00;11;01;12
MIKE
Thank you Bet Cooper for NBC grain Merchandizer at Prairie Center Co-op in Chenoa, Illinois. And Vernal Prather, director of buyer relations for ever. Thanks for joining us today. If you’ve enjoyed listening to From the Furrow, be sure to tell a friend or to and subscribe to us wherever you listen to your podcast. Thank you to the Ever AG Insights Crew for their work on today’s show.
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