The Ever.Ag Podcast

In the latest edition of the Parlor to Plate dairy podcast from Ever.Ag Insights, our all-star panel discusses recent bullish runs. Class III prices are pressing higher – how should producers respond? How is new plant capacity supporting Class IV markets? Will we see a change of trajectory in grain markets soon?

Join host Kathleen Wolfley and panelists Brian Fletcher, Tiffany LaMendola and Brandon Weigel for a spirited discussion.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;20 – 00;00;31;16

Hello, welcome to Parler to Play, a weekly podcast from Brag Insights, dedicated to offering listeners enlightening discussion and actionable intelligence about dairy markets. I’m your host, Kathleen Wolf Lee. We are excited to have you along. And if you like what you hear, please like us. Subscribe and tell a friend or two. Let’s timestamp today’s recording. It is Wednesday, September 18th, around 1 p.m. central time.

00;00;31;17 – 00;00;52;25

Here’s a quick rundown of the markets. See Me Black Cheddar closed at 225, down 7/10 on the week. Exciting news in the barrel market. We hit new record highs today, reaching $2.62, up $0.24 on the week. Spot butter moved lower. Spot butter closed at 301 $0.17 down on the week and then not vet. Dairy Milk Market closed at a $1.38.

00;00;52;25 – 00;01;16;29

Down a penny and a half. Now for the grain market. December corn is trading around 412 per bushel. November soybeans at 1012 per bushel, and the December soybean meal contract is trading around 321 per ton. It’s another week and yet another all star panel from the financial services team. Up first drumroll please. We have Tiffany Amendola. She is in California and helps dairy producers manage their risk.

00;01;16;29 – 00;01;30;09

Up next we have Brennan Weigel. He sits in Platteville and he helps producers manage their feed risk. And last but not least, we have Brian, Fletch Fletcher. He’s in our Chicago office and helps commercial clients manage their risk team. Thanks for joining me today.

00;01;30;14 – 00;01;31;28

Thanks for having us, Kathleen.

00;01;32;05 – 00;01;50;25

Well, team, there’s been a tremendous amount of buzz in the dairy markets and I think in the feed markets as well in the last couple of weeks. And I’m kind of curious. We’ve been on this for the class right side of things, let’s say on a really bullish run in grains, we’ve seen a little bit of a tiptoe higher, particularly on the corn side of the market.

00;01;50;25 – 00;02;04;29

And in class force based. That powder market keeps moving higher. I’m just kind of curious what changes the trajectory. Kind of seems like we keep feeding the bull every day. What keeps those bulls going hungry? Tiffany, let’s start with you on the class risk side of things.

00;02;05;06 – 00;02;28;19

Yeah, our team’s been thinking about this a lot, right? We like to manage risk. So what risk lies out there. And I think it’s pretty obvious we’ve been in a supply driven rally here. So if I ask myself what could change the trajectory, which would mean the market turns lower. My first thought is, okay, well if production comes up a little bit more, then maybe anticipated, right?

00;02;28;19 – 00;02;52;22

I mean, we are seeing on paper some of the best margins for dairy producers in some time out looking forward historically, that would incentivize a lot more milk. But we know we are short on cows, and it’s not easy to see those big gains materialize without the cows to make that happen. So we know that most likely folks are left to, you know, push milk production with what they have.

00;02;52;23 – 00;03;18;17

And I guess that’s where a little surprise could come in. As you know, I think our entire team, one of the mottos we live by is to not bet against the U.S. dairy producer and being good at their job. So that’s one thing on our minds. The other thing is that if it becomes a scenario where demand takes center stage and we stop worrying as much about supply, when we start thinking about what’s happening on the demand front, and if there’s anything startling there.

00;03;18;17 – 00;03;38;21

I mean, I think right now we fairly solid footing and that we might even be competitive in the export market, but that certainly can all shift depending on what happens around the globe. I also am kind of thinking, as we get past you know, the holiday demand push, do we see that typical seasonal lull beyond that? Obviously we know there is incrementally more cheese coming.

00;03;38;23 – 00;03;54;17

You know, the debate around all the new cheese capacity remains and where the milk’s going to come from. But certainly some of those plants are ready to fire up in a phased in approach, and that will mean more cheese. So those are the kind of things on my mind. And then I’ll pile on, see if my colleagues have anything to add.

00;03;54;17 – 00;04;05;09

I don’t have a whole lot insight here other than to say it is a presidential election year, and things can come from that. Changes in policies that we don’t know. So those are the things I’m thinking a lot about right now.

00;04;05;10 – 00;04;19;26

But I guess from a class four perspective, Tiffany’s comment around we have new plant capacity coming on line in the class three or in the cheese space. Does that maybe add on to this more bullish tone in the powder space going into 2025, perhaps?

00;04;19;26 – 00;04;42;15

I think so. Over the course of the medium to longer term. Absolutely. But within that, I would say in the near term it’s been pretty interesting because if you look at the US, nonfat market has been trading at a relative premium to the global skim milk powder price, as well as the European price, which is not a normal situation for that market to be in.

00;04;42;18 – 00;05;03;07

And then if you look at the butter side of the equation, we’re actually trading about a dollar discount relative to Europe right now and in line with New Zealand and what that can mean. And in terms of we have been on a pretty steady trajectory in terms of class for pricing. The forward curve, I guess, has moved higher a little bit because of the nonfat forward curve.

00;05;03;07 – 00;05;28;03

But on a spot price basis, it has really been consolidating at this higher price tier for quite some time. So I guess the question is, do we continue to consolidated the price tier that we’re at? And I think in terms of that, we’ve seen both the spot butter pull back about $0.15 give or take, over the last five trading days, which I would say is going against what the general expectation is of that market.

00;05;28;03 – 00;05;47;04

And also, again, some seasonal standards that that market sees as well. What I can say with that is surveying the general market and some industry context. The cream market for this time of year is actually on a year over year basis, trading at lower multiples right now. And it doesn’t mean that we’re in a surplus mode by any stretch.

00;05;47;04 – 00;06;15;26

But there is available supplies. We’re not seeing the same general price level that we would see this time of year, especially in the southwest and western United States. And so it’s kind of an interesting one as we approach. It doesn’t mean that we won’t see another rally this fall, but in general, we’ve made a pullback that I would say the general market wasn’t anticipating with that said, there is a lot more product in the warehouse this year than there was this time last year.

00;06;15;26 – 00;06;39;00

And so within that, I just don’t know that there’s the same fundamental argument to say that we need to go much higher and butter right now, even with Europe at $4, when we were having some conversations earlier today about, does that put the US at the forefront of the export market? You know, looking at that price spread, which we’re often referencing, generally we’d say, absolutely.

00;06;39;00 – 00;07;05;01

The problem with that right now is you can get lower competing sources of that actually out of New Zealand. So it’s not a runaway clear cut answer. Yes. I think to certain regions like Mexico and our neighboring countries, of course, we’ll be able to service them and export fat. But at this point in time, I don’t know that that’s a material amount, enough to really kind of change the near-term trend that we’ve seen in that overall market.

00;07;05;01 – 00;07;31;28

So long story short, Kathleen, if we think about the market 6 or 9 months from now, absolutely, with more cheese capacity coming online, milk supply is still not growing at historic growth rates. That will likely constrain the amount of milk going into balancing plants or powder and butter right here today. We still have several months in most instances where that new capacity is online.

00;07;31;28 – 00;07;53;22

So right here today, it feels like the US market’s generally pretty well supplied on the class four side. And so in terms of thinking about the next say three months, I personally look at the US nonfat price relative to the international price and looking at that saying it’s hard for us to maintain that premium. So if anything, we’ve already seen the butter market pullback.

00;07;53;22 – 00;08;03;18

We’ve hinted that the gas might be running out on the nonfat side. And so I personally wouldn’t be all that surprised to see more downside in the nonfat over the coming weeks.

00;08;03;20 – 00;08;25;21

Historically, when we think about the dairy market takes a long time to turn the bolt or bull markets have long tails or whatever other idiom you want to use, right? And to some extent, it almost seems like the class free market is maybe starting to make that turn of the boat that we’re starting to see some waves ahead, a little bit of challenges and making some initial attempts to to shift the rudder.

00;08;25;21 – 00;08;38;02

But on the class force side of things, maybe a little bit of cool off possible a little bit of a shift in trajectory lower. But 2025 could have a little bit more of a bullish tone, particularly as we get those class re plants up and running.

00;08;38;02 – 00;09;04;29

Yeah, I would agree with that. It does seem like even back to Tiffany’s points on the class three side right now. It feels like the problem at hand today on the class three side, on the commercial aspect anyway, is we’re at a near record level of an inverted block viral spread. And so what that means for the industry is think of a processed cheese manufacturer, where you can buy various types of cheeses to make processed cheese.

00;09;04;29 – 00;09;29;23

The most notable ingredient for that would typically be barrel cheese. But when you have a near 40 cent premium in the barrel market relative to block, a lot of effort will go into saying rather than buying, barrels are there other dairy ingredients that I can put into my my manufacturing to make a similar product? And there’s a lot of that going on right now.

00;09;29;23 – 00;09;49;16

So it’s saying barrels are so high, what can I what other dairy ingredient mix can I put in? Over time, I would imagine that will have an influence on correcting the spread that we have. So that’s in the near term, say two weeks to month time period, which in theory should bring barrels down in block, maybe blocks up to a certain degree.

00;09;49;16 – 00;10;14;02

The other aspect that’s really change, though, is the European price is trading on a forward curve basis, actually trading a premium to the U.S.. So it doesn’t mean that we don’t have some downside potential immediately, but it probably means that the floor or the sell off that we might face is probably higher than what we would have thought it could have been 3 or 4 months ago.

00;10;14;02 – 00;10;34;19

Something like a $2 price might really garner some attention in the export market, whereas 4 or 5 months ago that wouldn’t be cheap enough to. So it is one of those things in the near-term, probably running into some headwinds in the medium to longer term, probably looking at much higher floors with with the general market, at least from our perspective.

00;10;34;23 – 00;10;53;23

Brandon, don’t worry. I haven’t forgotten about you. Talk to me about the grain market. I was looking at the December corn price earlier this week and hey, we’re kind of trading above this 410 mark and have been there for the better part of a week, maybe a little bit longer than that. What do you think is happening? Do you think that there’s a change in trajectory coming in the corn or even the bean market?

00;10;53;23 – 00;11;12;03

So that’s a really good question, Kathleen. We’ve been getting that a lot. I don’t think that this near-term uptick in prices is going to lead to a longer term change in trajectory. I mean, the fundamentals really remain unchanged. The fact of the matter is, we have very abundant supplies, both in our corn sector and in our protein sector.

00;11;12;03 – 00;11;32;21

And as harvest starts to heat up through the Midwest, here, initial yield results have been very favorable. People are finding yields to be in line with expectations or better than expectations in a lot of cases. So a lot of this buying pressure over the last few weeks has been driven by a few things. First off, managed money. The speculators in our market have been very active buyers.

00;11;32;21 – 00;11;50;11

They have carried a very large short position all year. As we move into harvest, as we move into South America’s growing season, they are taking some gains on their short positions and moving to a more neutral stance to kind of go alongside of that. If we look back to the beginning of September, our corn and bean prices were the cheapest in the world.

00;11;50;11 – 00;12;11;16

So naturally, when we see our prices more competitive than that of South America, we attract a lot of export commitments and we also attract a lot of domestic buyers. When we have prices, getting to a spot that makes sense in the margins, especially late against these high milk prices and high beef prices. You know, long story short, I don’t foresee much of a long term change in trajectory here.

00;12;11;16 – 00;12;17;22

This market is still going to have bearish headwinds to it that are likely to prolong, you know, out into 2025.

00;12;17;23 – 00;12;37;12

What about from a macro perspective? We were chatting before we hit record on this call that the fed cut interest rates by a half point here this afternoon. Does that change anything from a grain market perspective, whether it be demand or how excited folks might be about storing little corner beans over the winter? What are your thoughts there?

00;12;37;12 – 00;12;58;27

Yeah, you know, I don’t think it’s going to have a major impact. I don’t foresee it changing things in in a way that’s going to meaningfully move the needle in terms of price action. Could it come into the conversation more from a producer standpoint about storing grain? Yes, because that cost to carry then is cheaper. But from a market participant standpoint, I think these interest rate cuts have been priced into this market for a while.

00;12;58;27 – 00;13;16;04

Everyone was expecting them to come at some point. The question was how much? I suppose as we work into year end, if we continue to see the fed cut rates, maybe that changes things and it brings more participants back into the commodity sector. But here so far for the near term, it doesn’t feel like it’ll have much of an impact flat.

00;13;16;04 – 00;13;30;10

I’m curious about your perspective on the dollar. We’ve been kind of flirting with a resistance line or a longer term resistance line. Do you think that a weaker dollar could help stir up a little bit more export opportunities, particularly in light of the European high price situation?

00;13;30;14 – 00;13;54;12

Yeah, I would say even had an influence on a week over week basis. The euro to US dollar went up about one point. That only amplifies the premium on the US product relative to premium EU product to the US. So for example, last week we were hearing of Q for mozzarella trading activity take place right around that 245 area.

00;13;54;12 – 00;14;21;14

This week we’re hearing a slight increase. And then you add on the currency conversion and it puts their price closer to 250. So on a week over week basis about a five cent increase. That has a pretty direct influence on US market. I think the hard part, if you look at the currency trends over the last say, month or two, is that the Mexican imports have been very strong all year long, especially on the cheese side of the equation.

00;14;21;14 – 00;14;48;06

And now with the weaker Mexican peso and higher commodity prices, it puts whether or not that type of volume can persist moving forward, mainly because the buying power has taken a significant shift down over the last, say, couple of months. So relative to Europe, it seems like we’re at a pretty comparative advantage. I think in general, on a nominal degree, it’s definitely having an influence on the US market given.

00;14;48;06 – 00;15;02;19

The dynamics in the market. I’m curious, what’s your approach for your clients on risk management? Tiffany, you work a lot with producers watch work with commercial clients. Brandon, you work with folks all across the board. Talk to me about your risk management approach in this uncertain time.

00;15;02;24 – 00;15;21;06

I’ll kick it off. I’ve learned a phrase from the team is buy floors and be bullish. I guess that’s a pretty good one for our dairy producers right now. For the most part, guys are feeling fairly optimistic and that’s okay, but I think we have been urging them hard to not take their sights off 2025. And you know, the latter part here of 2024.

00;15;21;06 – 00;15;38;19

There are some really good ways to take downside risk off the table. And so it’s okay to feel optimistic about the markets but don’t lose sight of that. Get some of that stuff in place and then hope these markets stay high. But if some of these things shift, as we’ve been talking about, then at least you have some protection in place.

00;15;38;21 – 00;16;03;11

Yeah. Tiffany’s talking about introducing optionality and also removing risk. And I say a similar approach on the commercial side right now, if we’re looking at 2025 right now and the current price structure almost across the board, in some cases we’re seeing the highest forward curve ever. And it doesn’t mean that there aren’t factors that could happen to mean that forward curve could move higher.

00;16;03;11 – 00;16;30;17

There’s some pretty big risks, I would say, between whether or not China comes back, whether this milk production situation gets worse instead of better. There’s a few factors that can paint a continuation of the bullish run that we’ve had. With that said, we’re already at an extremely high price, and so we have been really stressing as coverage is being taken, make sure that you have optionality for the opportunity in case prices do come down.

00;16;30;17 – 00;16;54;01

So rather than looking at fixed price, looking at call options or a risk reversal, if you’re on the buy side of the equation is really what we’ve been stressing under this environment. For other players that might be operating around the cash position than in the cheese market right now, the spot relative to the forward curve is at a huge premium, especially on the barrel side of the equation.

00;16;54;01 – 00;17;16;02

So our conversations become less focused about what tool to use, and it’s more signaling. Now is a great time to be unwinding inventory if you have it. So rather than looking at the forward curve, considering that and selling your inventory, because there’s really not much of an incentive to be holding on to that product right now. How about you, Brandon?

00;17;16;07 – 00;17;45;08

Yeah, I would say on the feed side of things for dairy producers here, and we’ve encouraged ownership from the futures standpoint around contract lows. So any time we get December corn futures working around 390, any time we get December soybean futures working around $300 a ton, it feels like a really solid spot to step into physical ownership. There are certain parts of the country specifically if you get out West and Southwest, that basis values are really not attractive yet on either of the protein products.

00;17;45;08 – 00;18;08;26

With soybean meal or canola or corn. So, you know, for folks that are wanting to maintain some patience to see if we get some slippage in those basis values as we work through harvest, just encouraging folks to look at some sort of a topside protection strategy with call options. So at least we can manage this futures price. Well, it lays down here, especially as we walk into South America’s growing season that naturally built some added risk premium back into this feed market.

00;18;08;29 – 00;18;13;13

So definitely kind of approaching things very proactively knowing where margins sit right now.

00;18;13;13 – 00;18;32;21

Well team really appreciate you joining me on today’s episode and sharing your insights with our listener. A big thank you, as always to our media team for mixing and mastering. And thank you to you, the listener, for joining us today. If you like what you hear, subscribe on your favorite app. If you’d like to learn more about how we help people manage risk, please contact us at insights at Ever.ag.

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The post Parlor to Plate – September 18, 2024 appeared first on .

In our weekly series From the Furrow, host Mike McGinnis and fellow grain geeks shed light on current market conditions and how grain producers can take action to manage their risk.

This week, Mike is joined John Baize, Consultant for the US Soybean Export Council. In what markets could US soybean exports gain share? Could dryness in Brazil open new opportunities for US soybean shipments? Mike and John discuss those topics and a whole lot more.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

Futures trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the segment is not for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Opinions and statements of guests not affiliated with every egg of their own, and do not reflect the views of the brand. The accuracy of their statements can not be guaranteed by a Barack.

00;00;17;04 – 00;00;39;20

Hello and welcome to From the Furrow, brought to you by Ever AG Insights. Each week we talk with subject matter experts on news and topics affecting the grain markets. I’m your host, Mike McGinnis, and today we get started with the review of the markets. Today is Tuesday, September 17th, 2024. And we have mixed markets. The December corn contract is trading down one and a quarter cents at 409.

00;00;39;21 – 00;00;58;21

Meanwhile new crop November beans up three quarter cents at 1008. The Chicago wheat market right now down six and three quarters at 571. Turning to our guest this week, it’s our privilege to have John Bass. He’s a consultant for the U.S. Soybean Export Council. We want to thank John for joining us today. John.

00;00;58;22 – 00;00;59;08

Good morning.

00;00;59;09 – 00;00;59;26

How are you?

00;00;59;27 – 00;01;02;12

Doing very well. Interesting times we’re in now.

00;01;02;13 – 00;01;22;04

It is. And we’re going to talk about the challenges, the headwinds of U.S. soybean exports and all that. Go with that. We have a lot to talk about. So let’s dig right in. Let’s talk about the soybean exports slowing for the 20 2425 marketing year. This comes at a time when the USDA expects a record crop to be harvested here soon.

00;01;22;04 – 00;01;45;10

The U.S. has so far sold less than 5 million tons for delivery in the 20 2425 season, the lowest in 16 years outside of the 2018 2019 trade war year, down 25% from a year ago. So we have some headwinds already going into this marketing year as far as soybean sales, can sales improve if China doesn’t buy? That’s my first question to you, John.

00;01;45;15 – 00;02;09;09

Well, it’s going to be difficult, but I fully expect China to step up soon. What we’ve been going through here is a period of prices declining for quite a while, and now we look like we’ve reached the floor. And that’s when you tend to see people start buying, including the Chinese. I think the Chinese are looking at the South American situation now and realizing the crop in Brazil, particularly, a lot of growth in the central area, is not going to get planted like it normally does.

00;02;09;10 – 00;02;35;12

It’s going to be at least maybe three weeks. Four weeks later, if that’s the case. And instead of seeing soybeans out of Brazil in January, they’re not going to be able to get them because they’re going to be harvesting a month late. So we’ll start seeing more sales out. The U.S. now, I don’t fully expect that we’re going to see a huge amount of sales like we did in the past year, except for 23, 24, because we’ve had such a bigger crop in Brazil who had a big crop in Argentina last year.

00;02;35;12 – 00;02;42;00

And, you know, I think there’s tensions clearly between the U.S. and China, which causes the Chinese government to be a bit leery, despite where you.

00;02;42;00 – 00;03;06;29

Ask the US pressure on the global market won’t go away anytime soon. As you expect, Brazil again may plant less soybeans this year than they have in several years, partly due to the drought and partly due to price. However, Brazil has the ear of China, the biggest soybean buyer in the world. So regarding demand, can the U.S. go out and find enough smaller buyers to add up to what China normally buys?

00;03;07;04 – 00;03;09;09

And if not, what do we do with our excess soybeans?

00;03;09;12 – 00;03;28;03

Well, that’s a challenge, of course. But, you know, USDA is expecting global demand for soybeans in the current marketing year, which began on September 1st, to grow by 16.5 million tons worldwide. And that doesn’t include really any growth in China. So that’s demand growth outside of China. So we fully expect that we’re going to get more of the markets there.

00;03;28;03 – 00;03;53;02

Our price is going to be very competitive. On soybean exports introduced today I think we’re about $20 a ton below Brazil prices right now. So I fully expect that’s going to show up in more sales to Europe, Southeast Asia, elsewhere. I think we can get a few things that are happening positive. Europe is getting much more focused on trying to reduce its imports of soybeans from rainforest that’s been cleared, areas like that, they want to get more sustainable.

00;03;53;02 – 00;04;14;13

And they’re looking at the U.S. as the lowest risk market to buy from. So I think we may see a big jump in our markets exports there. I think we’ll see an increase in exports to a few other countries in the world, but we’re not going to have to export necessarily as many, because we’re going to crush another 5 or 6 7 million tons of soybeans domestically this year, most likely because of all the new crushing plants that have been built in the U.S..

00;04;14;17 – 00;04;27;26

And let’s talk about that real quick, John, what do you hear? What’s the latest as far as those soybean crushing plants getting up and running? And what is the potential going forward for not just meal, but also the use of oil, also a byproduct of those plants?

00;04;28;00 – 00;04;55;00

Well, what’s driving all this expansion and the necessary crush is the demand for vegetable oils, including soybean oil, to go into the renewable diesel industry, which is heavily located around New Orleans and Houston. And, I don’t know, West Coast. So they’re using more soybean oil. And so the crush plants are starting up, because the hope is that they will get enough additional income from the soybean oil to be able to offset a lower price, a meal, which is going to occur because you’re crushing more beans, using less, no more domestically.

00;04;55;01 – 00;05;11;07

So I think that we’re probably going to do another 200 to 300 million bushels of domestic crush this year, and that’s what we’re expecting because we’ve got two new plants on stream and others coming. If that’s the case, that meal, there’s a lot of meal, probably 5 or 6 million tons of meal, it potentially is going to be on the market.

00;05;11;07 – 00;05;26;09

That’s not going to be used domestically. Even if we increase consumption a couple million tons, we’re still going to have at least 3 or 4 million tons a meal, probably. That has to be moved in the market. The other way we’re moving is a salad and a low price, plain and simple. Hopefully that’ll be offset by higher price for soybean oil.

00;05;26;09 – 00;05;42;08

So I think that’s where we’re headed in the future to be exporting more meal, relatively less soybeans. And of course, a lot of this depends on what’s the policy of the federal government and the state governments requiring or incentivizing the use of renewable diesel about as well versus fossil fuels.

00;05;42;08 – 00;06;07;29

Well, buying our way into global markets as far as soybean meal goes, we have some work to do as of this week. Prices at the Gulf right now for us, we’re at $406 per metric ton. That’s $23 per metric ton higher than Brazil and $25 higher than Argentina. We’re not competitive at all with soybean oil at the port, so what kind of work can we do there to become more competitive?

00;06;07;29 – 00;06;09;19

It seems like that’s going to be a heavy lift.

00;06;09;19 – 00;06;31;03

Well, number one, there’s always a discount for Argentine meal because it’s not very good meal. So they will pay a lot less for markets on Brazil meal. Yes, that’s a challenge. But I think we are going to see the U.S. price and the Brazilian price come together here as we start really ramping up. I mean, we just came out in August, which had 158 million bushel crush, which was very low.

00;06;31;03 – 00;06;46;17

So we’re going to have to crush more the next few weeks. And that’s going to push meal down these old plants with new plants. Both are going to have to find a home for that meal. So I think you’re going to start seeing you as being offered at the Gulf at a very competitive price and increasingly more off the West Coast as well.

00;06;46;17 – 00;06;54;20

And what about soybean oil? What’s the outlook there for U.S. exports and our use here and within the country, but also in the export market that there might.

00;06;54;20 – 00;07;15;00

Be I think we’ll probably sell maybe no more than 250,000 tons of soybean oil in the global market, in the export market, because if we have this demand domestically, which the industry anticipates, then we’re not going to have that much load export. That’s less of a concern. The bigger concern is what’s the price for the soybean oil market if it’s held up?

00;07;15;00 – 00;07;35;19

We’ve been encumbering that a little bit because we’re seeing increased imports of what supposedly is used cooking oil from China and elsewhere, which is a lot of people think not use cooking oil, maybe some used cooking oil blended with palm oil, which if that’s the case, and I think you’re going to see some increased restrictions on that because EPA is investigating whether it’s in fact used cooking oil.

00;07;35;19 – 00;07;52;17

But we’ve got more challenges with canola oil in the market and maybe a lot more challenges if China moves ahead with the anti-dumping restrictions on Canadian canola, the more that canola is going to get crushed in Canada and the oil is going to flow into this market, we’ve got a lot of unknowns at this point. We got a lot of hopes.

00;07;52;17 – 00;08;13;12

But the unknowns are what’s challenging with, for example, in California they want to do renewable diesel. But California Air Resources Board wants to restrict the amount of virgin oil, soybean oil and canola oil that can go into those feedstock. You know, that’s a challenge to U.S. agriculture, because the facts are that California Air Resources Board doesn’t care about agriculture, and that’s not their issue.

00;08;13;13 – 00;08;20;21

Their issue, which is to maximize use of any oils, in fact, exempts soybean oil and canola oil to make biodiesel in real is.

00;08;20;23 – 00;08;39;13

Another thing surfaced recently, John, that I want you to hit on and that is Argentina bought soybeans from the U.S. now, this is how competitive U.S. soybeans are on the global market right now. The freight on board prices, the farm prices at the Gulf here in the US for this week at $410 per metric ton for November delivery.

00;08;39;13 – 00;08;55;10

Now, that compares to Brazil’s $427 per metric ton price and Argentina’s $413. So we’re under both Brazil and Argentina. Are we under enough where Argentina has to come and buy us soybeans? And that’s first time that’s happened for a number of years and has to be surprising.

00;08;55;16 – 00;09;24;18

Well, my first reaction when I saw that last week was, that ain’t right, something’s a mistake. And I’m waiting to list Thursday’s USDA export sales report to see if there’s a correction to that. But if it is correct, it’s clear that someone in the crusher in Argentina decided we’ve got a real drought down here. The part on river which supplies the plants in Rosario mainly, and particularly the Paraguay River, which flows into there and takes beans from Paraguay where they normally import them from, may not be able to take the beans down to the crushing plants.

00;09;24;18 – 00;09;44;11

So it would be a case of crushing Argentina and said, we don’t get new beans in Argentina until late March April, so we need to go ahead and bring in some soybeans, but I’m going to wait till the end of this week to decide whether or not that actually happened or somebody made a mistake, that I find it hard to believe that somebody would offer that as a mistake.

00;09;44;11 – 00;09;48;24

But who knows? I’ve seen this happen before. We did sell Argentine soybeans to them before.

00;09;49;01 – 00;09;59;01

Now. This is our final question here to you and our so what segment. So if you could share with us, what do you think producers and processors could take from this conversation we’ve just had?

00;09;59;07 – 00;10;17;03

Well, I’m not going to sugarcoat anything. We face a really tough year ahead because we’re about to harvest the biggest crop ever. Soybean prices are been down, and then the nine tens, and I think probably out of the farm sector, they’re probably in the nine today, which is at or below everyone’s cost of production except those that just own their land.

00;10;17;03 – 00;10;37;17

And we only hope with now is that demand does pick up in the world, which I think is likely because much lower prices generally result in bigger demand. So I think that’s possible. I think we’re hopeful that China does come in for a sizable chunk of soybeans, for the yuan, for shipment between now and the end of February period, and we see good demand elsewhere.

00;10;37;17 – 00;10;53;16

And we also see really crushing plants in the US operate. But it’s going to be tough because, you know, today, what are the big groups in New Zealand said they’re going to produce 166 million tons in the next crop year, which is going to be coming out in the market in late January or February. And that’s a challenge.

00;10;53;16 – 00;11;08;08

Now, that crop is far from made. It hasn’t even been planted yet. They’ve got these drought problems down there. That crop may not be that large. And if an El Nino shows up like some are predicting this fall, that’s a problem for Argentina because they always have problem with El Nino.

00;11;08;12 – 00;11;25;08

Well, John, thanks again for your comments. That’s all the time we have for today, but a very good insight and we appreciate your time anytime. Thank you again. John Bass, consultant for U.S. Soybean Export Council, and thank you for joining us today. If you’ve enjoyed listening to From The Furrow, be sure to tell a friend or to and subscribe to us wherever you listen to your podcast.

00;11;25;14 – 00;11;29;12

Thank you to the Ever AG Insights Crew for their work on today’s show.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.
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The post From the Furrow – John Baize– September 17, 2024 appeared first on .

Cody Koster and Jon Spainhour take a deep dive into this week’s GDT report.

Questions or comments? Contact Jon at [email protected], Cody at [email protected], or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.

(Transcript auto-generated)

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;25 – 00;00;17;11

Hello everybody. Welcome back to another Get Tuesday. I’m your host, Cody Costa with me from Chicago land, Mr. John Spain. Howard. John, how are you today.

00;00;17;14 – 00;00;19;12

Doing well, Cody, and happy to be here.

00;00;19;17 – 00;00;33;06

We are happy to have you here, my friend. It is the 17th of September. We just had GDP this morning up as a total 1.3% today. Little bit better than it was two weeks ago. So back in the positive for GDP.

00;00;33;08 – 00;00;52;14

That’s right Cody. We had quite a few positive results and a row starting in the middle of July. On the last auction, we actually stepped back a little bit. And then this auction we had a positive outcome once again coming in at 1.3% higher on a weighted average price.

00;00;52;19 – 00;00;59;13

And it looks like whole milk powder and cheddar cheese kind of led the way as far as commodities went today.

00;00;59;13 – 00;01;20;12

You know, it was kind of a mixed bag. And here we’ll say skim milk powder came in at 2% higher. Looking at the GDP futures, I would say they came in maybe a little bit lower than expectations on that. And there might be some people that are a little let down by this 2% increase. I would point out that skim is at one at 27 on the GDP.

00;01;20;13 – 00;01;44;21

European prices are a little bit higher than that. And that 128 area. And our spot price here in the US nonfat is at one 39.25. So yes, an appreciation on the GDP skim price today but still trading as much as $0.12 below the US nonfat price. Whole milk powder. This is the big weight if you will. Came in 1.5% higher that going to come in.

00;01;44;21 – 00;02;15;10

You know I would say right on expectations with where the futures were futures. We’re looking for about that price and that’s what they got. Interesting to see that just from a historical perspective. We had two higher whole milk powder prices in a row last auction. We stepped back and then this auction again back into higher territory. As we move to the cheddar side and the cheese side, at least cheddar up 2.7% at $2.01, mozzarella up 4% at 243.

00;02;15;10 – 00;02;33;24

Again, that match number coming out of Europe. This is not a New Zealand mozzarella price. This is a European price. And that was trading at about 243. When we get to the cheddar side again at 201 on the exchange today. And then finally as we get to the butter side, I think this is the one that everyone’s still kind of scratching their heads at.

00;02;33;24 – 00;02;56;28

Butter came in 1.9% lower at 297 on an 82% basis. AMF came in 1.2% lower at 327 a pound. When we convert it into butter. I guess what is confusing about that to a lot of people is right now we’re looking at European butter trade as high as $4 a pound, and then when we come back here to the US, we’re at 309.

00;02;56;28 – 00;03;10;01

I think people are looking in saying, boy, if Europe’s really got a problem, we should be seeing those fat prices in the other regions pick up. And right now at least that is not happening. And I think that’s just important to point out.

00;03;10;02 – 00;03;28;11

Yeah, I mean, that dollar discrepancy that you’re talking about that we saw from the futures trading. So what happened on the GDP is a pretty big expansion on that front. And I guess switching hands a little bit, John, you and I talked previously before we jumped on the podcast here about total purchases by region. And I had made the comment that it looked like China was back in a big way.

00;03;28;11 – 00;03;41;12

But you brought up the fact of if you look at it year over year, not so much auction to auction two weeks ago, yes. But I guess the year over year. Can you hit on that a little bit, as that is probably a bigger factor in the market right now?

00;03;41;13 – 00;04;02;06

Yeah, it’s a bit of a nuanced discussion, Cody. There is no way that you can look in at this and say, well, this wasn’t impressive on China’s part. This is several auctions in a row. Now that we’ve seen them participate. They have been, you know, had been largely absent for most of the year. And over the course of the last four auctions have really stepped in.

00;04;02;06 – 00;04;29;07

That is pretty incredible. And we don’t want to take away from that when we look at it, as you mentioned, versus the last auction, they were up 10% versus the last auction, and that auction was up pretty big right on their volume, where I think the nuance piece of this comes in is when we look at their purchasing behavior on a historical basis, right around now is when we see them put in their big purchase of the year, right.

00;04;29;07 – 00;04;50;05

This is historically their highest volumes of the year, and it also generally corresponds with some of the highest volumes coming out of New Zealand. So if they’re going to make a purchase, I think they want to make sure. Do they buy a lot? They also are going to buy it in line with where the most liquidity is on the sell side, right, so that they’re not going to have as big of an effect on prices when they come in.

00;04;50;05 – 00;05;07;12

So again, yes, they were here. Right. This is when we would expect to see them put in a big number. However, when we compare it to last year and again, I don’t want to make it sound like this is cut in the cards here. I just want to point this out that on a year over year basis, it is still down 14%.

00;05;07;12 – 00;05;33;05

So impressive that they’re here. And maybe we just continue moving on out from here. My guess is we see them still in here. On a relative basis, but that we see their volume start to back off. Now again, we look in and say, why would they be in here? And I don’t know that there’s other than this seasonal buying pattern, I don’t know that we would say, hey, there’s a tremendous reason we do know their milk production is down a little bit.

00;05;33;05 – 00;05;56;14

We know that they’re likely going to restock a little bit. And at the same point in time, there are no economic signals coming out of China saying that a their economy has gotten any better, or b that their dairy demand has gotten any better. When we look at the few of the key financial stocks of firms that trade in China, there are certainly no signs coming out of that that says things are getting any better.

00;05;56;14 – 00;06;15;10

So again, right now we’re forced to continue to look at this through a bit of, okay, they’re doing some restocking. That’s a good thing. But probably see them step back from here. Now it just becomes how hard do they step back right. Do they outperform on a seasonal basis or do they really start to step away from this market.

00;06;15;10 – 00;06;18;10

And I don’t think that those questions have been answered yet.

00;06;18;13 – 00;06;31;00

Okay. So we can just as of right now just kind of stock this up to a seasonal restocking that happens generally every year towards the end of the year from China. And I guess the next two auctions, three auctions are really going to give us the tale of what’s truly going on over there.

00;06;31;00 – 00;06;51;23

Yeah. You hate to sit there and keep watching it and say, well, I need to wait for next auction to find out, right? But certainly been a very impressive run that they’ve been on. But again, when we step back from when we say, well, this is the time that they should be here, and again, this one, their presence here versus the last time kind of backed off a little bit where we did see probably a change on this one was southeast Asia.

00;06;51;23 – 00;07;18;19

Southeast Asia continues to kind of fight outside of their weight class here. So they were off a little bit versus the last auction, but still 42% higher on a year over year basis. So it is really impressive to see them continue to be here as well as the Middle East. It makes sense for the Middle East to be here if one of their main key suppliers is Europe and European prices keep climbing, we expect to see them swing over to other regions to find that supply line.

00;07;18;19 – 00;07;33;28

I guess something that really flies in the face of that is this butter price. If you’re the Middle East, we would expect to see at $4 butter versus $3 butter. We would expect to see a lot of demand show up here on the GD fat prices. And that simply is not happening at this time.

00;07;34;05 – 00;07;54;11

Well, John, as always, we greatly appreciate your insight into the global dairy trade. Next time you and I will be back together, it’s going to be two weeks beginning of October for the next global dairy trade. But until then, everyone, we appreciate you tuning in listening to John essay about the global dairy trade. Hope you have a great week and even better weekend.

00;07;54;14 – 00;07;56;25

We will see you in two weeks on the next episode.

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This episode is also available on the following
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Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The post GDT Review with Jon Spainhour – September 17, 2024 appeared first on .

View the video version of this episode here.

In The Grain Feed, Jim Matthews is joined by a rotating cast of analysts to discuss what dairy and livestock producers can be doing to manage their risk. This week, Jim is joined by Jake Kingsley and Kathleen Wolfley.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

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Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The post The Grain Feed – September 12, 2024 (Audio Only) appeared first on .

In the latest edition of the Parlor to Plate dairy podcast from Ever.Ag Insights, our all-star panel discusses the most important dynamics in markets. How is avian flu impacting milk production, and how are dairy prices reacting to snug milk supplies? What’s the weather outlook heading into harvest, and how are conditions impacting crops?

Join host Katie Burgess and panelists Kevin Peterson, Matt Tranel and Mike North for a spirited discussion.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Hello and welcome to Parler to play a weekly podcast from Ever Again Insights, dedicated to offering listeners enlightening discussion and actionable, very market intelligence. I’m your host, Katie Burgess.

00;00;19;29 – 00;00;41;02

Thanks for joining us today. And if you enjoy the show, please like us. Subscribe. And please tell a friend or two to kick things off. Let’s timestamp the episode. It is about 2:00 central time on Wednesday, September 11th, and here’s the rundown of the CME spot markets over the past week. Today, Black Cheddar closed at two 31.5. That’s up $0.09 from last week.

00;00;41;04 – 00;01;05;05

And barrels went all the way up to two 38.5 a $0.13. So both block and barrel cheese at the highest level since 2022. Not to be left out. Nonfat also at the highest level since 2022, trading just shy of 140 per pound today. That’s up $0.04 on the week. And butter that one’s been a little more quiet. Hanging out at three 17.5 today, up $0.03 from a week ago.

00;01;05;07 – 00;01;26;26

Turning to the grain markets. December corn is at 405 today, down $0.07 from last week and November. Soybeans are at $10 even. That’s down $0.21 from a week ago. Now let’s get to the show. It is a beautiful day here in Madison, Wisconsin. And while it might not technically be autumn yet on the calendar, those trees there got the first peeks of orange and red leaves out there.

00;01;26;26 – 00;01;46;03

Choppers are rolling to harvest corn silage, and I don’t know, pumpkin spice is in the air, I guess. So to cover off on everything that’s impacting dairy and grain markets as we make our way into fall, I’m joined by another all star panel today. First off, we’ve got Mike North joining us from Platteville, Wisconsin. Welcome, Mike. And what is your favorite part about fall?

00;01;46;03 – 00;02;05;27

My favorite part of fall is the cool mornings that lead their way into a really beautiful afternoon. I love that dry air. I love how the temperature changes through the course of the day. It’s just my favorite time of the year. Can work outside all day and never really break a sweat.

00;02;06;02 – 00;02;13;03

That’s right. I mean, here in Wisconsin you don’t get many weekends nicer than last weekend. Just got to remember to grab that jacket in the morning. It’s easy to forget.

00;02;13;05 – 00;02;13;23

Indeed.

00;02;13;23 – 00;02;20;14

Kevin Peterson joining us from Chicago. He works with dairy commercial customers. Kevin, how about you? What’s your favorite part of autumn?

00;02;20;15 – 00;02;32;00

You know, like Mike, I also enjoy cooler temperatures. But my favorite part has to be the college football is back NFL as well. But personally I’m more of a college football fan. So that’s the best thing about ball.

00;02;32;01 – 00;02;46;14

And you know, it’s easy to grab a pizza while you’re watching some football. So you know, hopefully everyone goes out and eat some cheese. And then last but not least, we’ve got Matt Trammel. Matt, I’ve heard of you. Have an exciting autumn coming up. What are you looking forward to this year?

00;02;46;15 – 00;02;56;18

So normally I would say the same thing as Kevin. I’m excited for football season, but I probably get in trouble if I didn’t say that. I’m getting married this fall, and that’s the most exciting thing for me, so I’ll go with that.

00;02;56;23 – 00;03;19;29

Perfect love it. Exciting you guys. I’m surprised none of you said pumpkin spice lattes. I don’t know. So to dive in today I mean fall it brings opportunities for people to drink those hot coffees full of milk. Eat those pizzas full of cheese. We’ve got a lot of stuff going on. Like I mentioned in The Rundown, we’ve got both cheese and powder markets up to the highest level they’ve been in two years.

00;03;19;29 – 00;03;39;26

Lots of moving pieces. So to try to break it down for the listeners today, what I want to do is run through. What do you think are the most important things right now? What’s the most important thing in the domestic market, and what’s the most important thing in the international market? Maternal I’d love to start with you. Supply side dynamics have been top of mind.

00;03;40;00 – 00;03;46;04

So when you’re thinking about the most important thing on the supply side here in the U.S., what comes to top of mind?

00;03;46;07 – 00;04;14;09

Yeah, it continues to be the avian flu. We’ve seen the avian flu across many different states over the course of the last few months. Certain states it has hit much more aggressively in certain spots. Other states it’s taken a little bit more of a slower route through the state. And we’ve seen different effects as far as production recently, as of late August, California was the last state to really kind of enter into the fray of avian flu.

00;04;14;10 – 00;04;39;16

Obviously, that’s a big states from a dairy aspect producing 18% of the nation’s milk. But as of today, it was just kind of getting into the first start in that Central Valley area. It still is to be determined how aggressively it’ll spread, how quickly it’ll spread, how much overall production will be affected by California. But ultimately, that’s where the watch point is in the dairy markets from a supply end of the spectrum as of today.

00;04;39;18 – 00;04;53;18

I agree. I mean, you know, it’s kind of been the big head scratcher all year since it started, I want to say six months back or so that it’s just hard to know how it’s going to play out. You’ve got some spots where it’s spread really rapidly, with many herds impacted, other parts where it’s been a little slower.

00;04;53;18 – 00;05;07;28

And so I guess lots of unknowns. Yet as we see how avian influenza plays out. But definitely a big watch factor I would agree. Kevin, you work with a lot of folks on the commercial side. What’s the biggest thing right now? You see it impacting the domestic market?

00;05;08;01 – 00;05;35;16

Yeah, kind of to piggyback on a little bit what Matt was speaking of. You know, I think the biggest thing domestically that myself or any end users are looking at right now is, you know, the lack of milk supply. You know, it’s been 12 months lower year over year prices. You know, I’ve been really good. The last call it 2 or 3 months for growth on farm, but we still just aren’t seeing it next year I think is it could be a different story with additional capacity and some farms that are likely getting ready to supply that right now.

00;05;35;16 – 00;05;58;20

Yeah, but currently I think it has to be the lack of supply. You know, demand is still, you know, domestically continues to be so-so. But I think that takes a backseat when supply is you’re constrained and, you know, June to July. Now this year we’ve made about 187 million less pounds of cheddar cheese versus last year. And so I really think that just takes, you know, the front page, if you will, on domestic markets for me.

00;05;58;25 – 00;06;13;09

And makes sense. And then Mike a lot of this to dairy prices carefully watching the grain market. What are the things you’re watching here in the domestic market as we make our way in the fall? Harvest time is approaching. In your mind, what’s the biggest thing impacting the domestic market for grain right now?

00;06;13;12 – 00;06;38;06

It’s precipitation or lack thereof. If you look at August weather as we finished off the beans and went through that key pod feeling stage was relatively dry through a big part of the corn Belt. And so there are some questions lingering after the Pro Farmer Tour that pegged the new record yield above the USDA’s estimate in August. Whether or not we can actually hit those numbers.

00;06;38;09 – 00;07;10;06

And so as we prepare for another, was the reports, we’re already looking for some potential cuts. We’ll see if those actually materialize. We will have objective field capture of data with regard to the crop for this September number. So that’ll give us a little better sense rather than just survey numbers in prior reports. But that’s also impacted River by the lack of moisture, has seen the Mississippi River drop as much as six feet over the course of the last couple of weeks.

00;07;10;06 – 00;07;41;27

And if that continues to happen, that will make it very difficult for Northern Corn Belt grain shipments to make their way to the Gulf for export and really complicate that discussion, which, you know, that puts less corn from the US in the export market may leave more corn at home, further pressure on prices. But I think you also have to balance that with the discussion of is there some potential yield loss from that August number that was pegged when USDA gave us 183.2 bushels of corn as the national average yield.

00;07;42;00 – 00;07;53;02

So if we start taking back some of that yield, even despite the lower red levels, we may find ourselves in a shorter supply situation, which may bolster some price activity. Back to the upside.

00;07;53;10 – 00;08;11;06

Interesting. It’s definitely been noteworthy that it felt like, you know, during the first part of summer here, it was raining most days and now it’s been a long, sunny stretch. So for sure impacts things as we make our way toward harvest here pretty soon. And so as everyone knows who watches these markets pretty closely, it’s not just a domestic market place.

00;08;11;06 – 00;08;25;04

Our prices are also greatly impacted by what’s happening in the international market. And there’s been a lot of big news on the international front lately, too. So, Matt, which you think is the most important thing on the supply side in the international market right now?

00;08;25;06 – 00;08;48;11

Yeah. So there is a viral disease going around in Europe right now called bluetongue disease. Basically it is within cattle, sheep, deer, goats and some of the symptoms are fever, congestion, ulcers in the mouth which are preventing some of the dairy cattle from performing at their peak. It’s in various different countries the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany, Denmark to name a few.

00;08;48;11 – 00;09;10;18

And ultimately that is curbing milk supply from their dairy herds and preventing maybe as much product to be made as what could be or would realistically be made under normal times. That has lifted European product prices and offered really a floor for United States products to kind of hang in at some of these higher prices, maybe a little bit longer.

00;09;10;18 – 00;09;19;13

It’s offered up some export opportunities over the course of the last few months, but that particular disease moving through Europe is the biggest watch point that we see right now internationally.

00;09;19;16 – 00;09;38;17

Yeah for sure. I mean, you’re kind of had a tough go, but they had some rough weather this spring that got them off to a slow start. Now dealing with bluetongue disease. Is that like you say it’s different than avian influenza. But the same sort of worries and how it impacts dairy cows and potential output. Definitely a watch factor there because I feel like, you know, there been some whispers about the story.

00;09;38;17 – 00;09;51;25

A while back, but it seems like just the past 2 or 3 weeks, it’s really become a bigger deal over in Europe right now. So, Kevin, how about you on the commercial side of things, what do you think is the biggest story right now impacting the international market?

00;09;51;27 – 00;10;11;27

Yeah, I think on the commercial side, the biggest story would still kind of remain to be China. There’s a lot going on over there right now with dairying and China, the governments, you know, looking to reduce their herd, their milk production has been falling, but kind of so has their, demand for at least domestic dairy products that they produce over there.

00;10;11;27 – 00;10;43;22

Their largest dairy companies, you know, have reported sales volume down over 10%, in the first half of this year. You know, those company stock prices are getting hammered pretty hard. So the big question there is, you know, what of your return to the global market. You know, importing you know, dairy supply for them. You know, the last three auctions now the GDP they have been spiking and participation that, you know, is it the same time where their domestic stocks of S&P are at at least three year lows.

00;10;43;22 – 00;10;53;26

And so I think the big thing to watch there is if they are going to try and restock their supply for their population, you know, specifically in milk powders.

00;10;53;29 – 00;11;14;12

Yeah for sure. I think that, you know, there’s still so many questions about China that on one hand, they did not buy very much all year until really we got to August. So it makes sense why they might need a little bit more economic news. The talk about demand in China is still pretty poor. So as always, I feel like it’s hard to go a podcast without talking about the impact of China on the dairy markets because they’re just so big.

00;11;14;12 – 00;11;22;27

But, you know, interesting to see them buying a little bit more. Now, the question is, how does that continue to carry through as we make our way into the end of the year? Yeah.

00;11;22;27 – 00;11;40;14

And I think, you know, we’ve seen it the last month or so with the uptick in kind of breaking out of our 18 month trend that we’ve been trading and spot on specifically, you know, I look at it to say, you know, if you look at New Zealand, you know, China has not been participating. And so they’re kind of switching out of producing whole milk powder and producing more skim milk powder.

00;11;40;14 – 00;12;04;18

Right. So their production is up, you know, again, Jan to July I think we’ve produced about 200 million less pounds of nonfat domestically. You know, that’s a large number. You know, our demand hasn’t been great, but I think we’ve, you know, overcompensated on the lack of production. And so I think any uptick in demand, be it out of China, Mexico, you know, I think you’re going to see and have seen, you know, that trickle out into pricing for sure.

00;12;04;21 – 00;12;11;14

Know for sure. Last but not least, Mike, how about you. What are the grain markets right now watching in the international space.

00;12;11;16 – 00;12;31;18

Well, those couple things. And I’m going to keep building on the China discussion that you started. Reality is, is that as you look around the world, several different countries have been imposing tariffs against China on a number of different things electric cars, solar panels, other circuitry and things of that nature. And there’s been a lot of back and forth.

00;12;31;18 – 00;12;55;22

And one that’s caught the headlines closer to home has been China’s retaliation against Canada as it relates to its canola exports to the country. China, as a buyer, is single handedly the largest consumer of Canadian canola, more than two thirds of the exports that leave that country end up in China, very similar to what we see on soybeans in this country.

00;12;55;22 – 00;13;30;14

And when you look at what that effectively does, it starts to create some rifts in the global trade across the oil seed market. If I can’t get to know the oil or canola meal, I’m going to have to substitute with something else soybean, of course, would be kind of the next thing in line. And, you know, as you look now at the biggest trade partners that they have on this front, you already have the US kind of them, let’s call it Troubled Waters with regards to our relationship with China on agricultural exports following the trade war from Biden years ago.

00;13;30;15 – 00;13;53;29

We’ve watched the South America has really captured the limelight there. And right now they’re struggling with lower river levels and some dry weather of their own that potentially could threaten the planting of their soybean crop. And so all of these things have kind of mixed together to create this really frustrated trade for oil seed around the globe. You know, ultimately what a lot of people are watching.

00;13;54;01 – 00;14;34;11

But I think some of the story that lives below the surface here with regard to our dollar index moving lower, you know, what’s 5% cheaper, so to speak, than we were a year ago? And as a byproduct, when you couple the lower prices that we have for corn and soybeans and the softer currency and exchange rates, you really start to wonder if the US will start to play a bigger role on the global stage with regard to exports in the coming year, if, in fact, any of these stories continue to gain traction, we’re still watching for anything definitive between China and Canada on how this thing is going to end.

00;14;34;11 – 00;14;55;02

Right now, it’s just a lot of very hurt words being lobbed back and forth between the two sides. But if we end up with some really definitive actions against Canada, we could start to open the door for some U.S. soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil to leave the country and go into something else. So, you know, this is where the conversation lives on that front.

00;14;55;05 – 00;14;56;28

And there’s still a lot to be determined yet.

00;14;57;03 – 00;15;03;27

Sounds like there’s so many moving pieces as part of that grain story right now. Lots of important things for listeners to keep an eye on. Absolutely.

00;15;03;27 – 00;15;30;00

Katie. So I want to go back to what you started the show with, and that was a comment where you made this show provides actionable insights. And I think it’s key here as you listen to this discussion, both on the dairy side and on the grain side, that there are some follow ups to this discussion. You know, as we look at both the domestic and global settings for the grain and oilseed markets, there really is a lot of uncertainty right now.

00;15;30;00 – 00;15;58;14

And despite the fact that we have the inkling of a big crop coming at us, we saw a lot of very good clearing action, taking place when corn was, you know, just south of $4 when beans were around ten. The world market is interested. And if other outside influences prompt more of that, we could see a lot of action that moves the US product off shore and tightens up these balance sheets and sends prices back up from some of these really comfortable levels.

00;15;58;14 – 00;16;18;27

So dairymen are looking at right now. So taking advantage of that with some option strategies using calls to manage the topside talking, you know with your feed vendors around what’s available. This is a really really good time to be active in the marketplace. So certainly something that we are prompting from our side because it is a really good opportunity.

00;16;18;27 – 00;16;24;28

And I think if I recall, Matt, isn’t there a big deadline coming for insurance over the course of the next couple days?

00;16;24;28 – 00;16;49;28

There is indeed a big deadline. So Q4 2024 DRP expiration. The last quote that we will see will come out on Friday, September 13th, and that will be available until Sunday at 9 a.m. Central time, with current values in Q4 on the class three end, we’re looking at as of Wednesday at $22 floor, yet for about $0.21, class four, we’re looking at 2150.

00;16;49;28 – 00;17;02;07

And even when you look out into Q1 2025, $19 floors are available. So prices have increased significantly over the course of the last month or so. But Q4 expiration will be this Friday, September 13th.

00;17;02;11 – 00;17;19;06

Thanks, guys. I think that’s important to remember. There’s some good margins to be locked in right now on the dairy producer side of things. With these really high milk prices and the lowest grain prices producers have seen in a while as we approached harvest here in 2024. Well, that’s a wrap. A big thanks to our panelists. Thanks for joining me, Kevin.

00;17;19;06 – 00;17;37;02

Matt, Mike, really appreciate it all. Your commentary today. Plus big thanks to our listeners and your insights team. If you like the show, please hit subscribe on your favorite podcast app. And if you’d like to learn more about how we help customers manage price risk, please contact us at insights at ever.ag.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The following music was used for this media project:

Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd

Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29

License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license

Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod

© Ever.Ag 2023, confidential and proprietary.

The post Parlor to Plate – September 11, 2024 appeared first on .

In our weekly series From the Furrow, host Mike McGinnis and fellow grain geeks shed light on current market conditions and how grain producers can take action to manage their risk.

This week, Mike is joined Britt O’Connell, Director of Grain Foundations; Verl Prather, Director of Buyer Relations; and Brandon Weigel, Grain Market Advisor with Ever.Ag. What headwinds and tailwinds are facing grain markets? What are Ever.Ag advisors discussing with clients? Mike, Britt, Verl and Brandon discuss those topics and a whole lot more.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;18 – 00;00;26;24

Hello and welcome to From the Furrowed, brought to you by Ever AG Insights. Each week we talk with subject matter experts on news and topics affecting the grain markets. I’m your host, Mike McGinnis, and we get started with a review of the markets right now on this Wednesday, September 11th, 2024. Corn is unchanged at midday at 404 for the new crop contract.

00;00;26;24 – 00;00;48;20

Meanwhile, November soybeans up a nickel at 1002 and wheat is up $0.06. We are joined today with a panel of guests, and we are thankful that the director of Grain Foundations Forever AG is with us, Brett O’Connell. Also, the former host of this very prized program, Brandon Wiggle, the grain market advisor for AG and also for buyer relations director for Agora Prather.

00;00;48;20 – 00;01;06;11

So Brett, Brandon and Vernal and I are around the microphone, and we’re going to visit a little bit about some of the headwinds and tailwinds of this current grain market. We’ll start with you as you sit and think about the market today, where we’re trading and where we could be going for the fall as harvest gets ready to start.

00;01;06;18 – 00;01;10;03

What are some of the headwinds first off that you see the market facing?

00;01;10;05 – 00;01;30;01

Yeah, producers are looking at current price availability that are being offered by their local buyers. And the reality is that there’s not many offerings out there that are above the cost of production. And this 2024 crop year. Then additionally, right looking forward towards 2025, it doesn’t seem like a lot of these numbers or input costs are going to come down much.

00;01;30;02 – 00;01;36;18

And so there’s a lot of concern in the industry that guys balance sheets are going to look a little bit tighter than they have over the last couple of years.

00;01;36;22 – 00;01;37;12

You concur.

00;01;37;13 – 00;01;53;16

Brett. Yeah I think that’s true. I think we are going to just be continuing to struggle with a glut of supply. And when we look at the demand side of the balance sheet, you know, most of those are what I call well, in check. You know, we’re brining a good amount of ethanol. We are exporting a good amount of corn.

00;01;53;18 – 00;02;12;27

And on the livestock side, we’re feeding a lot of corn, which makes sense. You’ve got near record high fat cattle prices with low corn prices. Pounds are cheap to put on. So it’s not really a demand issue. It’s a supply issue. We have been and continue to produce a really good crop here in this country and abroad. And so that’s going to continue to be a bit of a headwind here.

00;02;12;27 – 00;02;20;25

But I think there’s a few things that are maybe a tailwind to this market. I think there’s some things that maybe give us a little bit of opportunity for some hope as well.

00;02;20;26 – 00;02;23;26

Brandon, where is the blue sky for the markets you think going forward?

00;02;23;26 – 00;02;44;10

So where we really have some potential opportunity is as we work into the back end of 2024, if we do see South America run into any issues with their planting season, their growing season. Right. There is still some risk premium that gets built into the market until there is more certainty knowing around that crop. Then, like Britt said as well, you know, our corn and beans have been the cheapest in the world.

00;02;44;10 – 00;03;01;15

If you look at fiber export prices. So, so long as we remain below our global competitors, we will continue to see export purchases and commitments. You know, that’s one of those things we’re going to probably have to see it pick up a little bit to be meaningful enough late against the big supply, but it certainly, you know, price supportive underneath this market.

00;03;01;15 – 00;03;16;05

Farmer customer and client conversation. We’ll start with you. The AG barometer that was just released by Purdue University. And the CME showed a decline in farmer sentiment. I don’t think it’s any surprise to a lot of folks, but what are you hearing from your farmer customers as they get ready for harvest?

00;03;16;10 – 00;03;36;18

You know, I think there’s some general concerns about moving back into a downward trending market or even a choppy sideways market. I think one of the greatest concerns that I hear from producers is input costs and fertilizer costs. Specifically, one of the ways we like to look at fertilizer costs and track that is, you know, against how many bushels of corn it takes to buy a ton of specific fertilizer.

00;03;36;19 – 00;03;56;10

And when we look at those numbers, they’re still on the really high end of things. When we think about input costs as it relates to seed or rent, those are things that are pretty stubborn to come back down. And so producers are really looking at negative margins, incredibly tight margins, and really asking questions around the input side of their business and how they’re going to manage that.

00;03;56;11 – 00;04;10;03

And verbal, you speak on a day to day basis with a lot of buyers, a lot of your clients, you know, on the other side of the coin and so to speak, as far as farmers go, what are they saying? Right. With a lower market, maybe it’s at some point perhaps going to have to come down. Right. So what sentiment do you get from them.

00;04;10;06 – 00;04;28;21

That’s right. Yeah. And it’s been kind of an ongoing theme all year long. It seems like they’ve continued to struggle to kind of convince that producer and their neck of the woods to bring those bushels to town or to make the sale commitments to them, obviously, over the course of the last three weeks or so, a lot of the 2023 crop did start moving.

00;04;28;23 – 00;04;43;27

It does sound like there was some 2024 sales as well that took place. As we saw a little bit of a pop in this market over the last couple of weeks. But there is still a broad concern that, hey, the producer coming into this 2024 harvest is widely undersold.

00;04;43;29 – 00;04;54;05

And Brandon want to talk about the reception that you’re getting from farmers as the markets get weaker or stay weaker, does the idea of grain marketing get stronger in your conversations with them?

00;04;54;08 – 00;05;20;28

It does. I think it makes people want to take a more proactive approach to things moving forward. The last few years, it was very easy to market grain, right? You could pretty much pick any given day the sale you were making looks good, especially in hindsight. But as we move back into what I would call a more quote unquote normal balance sheet environment, the idea of being proactive and making sure that we’re taking the right steps to manage risk out into the future is only going to continue to become more important.

00;05;21;04 – 00;05;26;19

And traditionally, has this been the case when the markets are up consistently? Farmers don’t have a lot to worry about, right?

00;05;26;19 – 00;05;46;01

In that way. Yeah, I mean, we know that markets are very cyclical in nature. And so this isn’t the first downturn that we’ve been through. And this won’t be the last. There will also be brighter days ahead. The markets will move higher at some point. And so it is really about managing that time in between and really being efficient about the decisions that they’re making.

00;05;46;02 – 00;06;07;14

So, you know, I think we tend to see farmers who lean more aggressively into forward marketing. There’s a saying in our base that says the more you know about a crop, generally speaking, the less it’s worth. And so being able to sell that what we call risk premium, because there’s not a lot of certainty around a crop in 2024 or 2025 and being able to capitalize on that and utilizing multiple tools that are at their disposal.

00;06;07;15 – 00;06;22;12

You know, all of those things are back on the table when prices are seven and $8. You know, folks, you know, they don’t have to work real hard. They can load a truckload of grain and they can take it to town and make money. Doesn’t require a lot of thought and tough decisions. It’s now when the metal really meets the road.

00;06;22;12 – 00;06;27;09

And, you know, I have no doubt the American producer is up for the challenge, if you will. But it will be. It will be a challenge.

00;06;27;09 – 00;06;34;05

And finish this up for us if you would. Our so what segment, you know, what can producers take away from this conversation and some of the things we’ve talked about.

00;06;34;09 – 00;06;50;17

Yeah I would say you know kind of like we talked just making sure that not only do you have a plan in place, but you have the ability and the wherewithal to execute on that plan. That’s the biggest thing is we look at, you know, kind of moving forward into the future. How do we kind of approach this market and, you know, do so in a proactive manner.

00;06;50;17 – 00;07;13;02

And it’s just having executing a plan. I think you guys got to step out of this comfort zone and take a good, hard look at 2025 prices. We’re seeing a big carry into new crop 2025 compared to 2024 crop. And I think you guys got to take a look out there and realize that additional premium could be a very good opportunity as we work into the next production cycle.

00;07;13;05 – 00;07;29;28

Thank you very much. Brett O’Connell, director of Grain Foundations Forever AG, Brandon Wiggle, grain market advisor, and Vera Prather, buyer relations director, ever.AG. We want to thank all of our guests today and thank you. And if you’ve enjoyed today’s From The Furrow, be sure to tell a friend or to and subscribe to us wherever you listen to your podcast.

00;07;30;00 – 00;07;34;00

Thank you to the Insights Crew for their work on today’s show.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.
EVER.AG INSURANCE SERVICES IS A LICENSED INSURANCE AGENCY AND AN AFFILIATE OF EVER.AG. INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IN THIS WEBSITE IS COMPILED FOR THE CONVENIENCE OF THE USER. INFORMATION IS OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE AND IS FURNISHED WITHOUT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ACCURACY OR CONTENT. MARKET DATA IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME. Ever.Ag is a licensed insurance agency in the following states: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NM, NY, NC, ND, OK, OH, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY.
—
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
© Ever.Ag 2023, confidential and proprietary.

The post From the Furrow – Britt O’Connell, Verl Prather, & Brandon Weigel – September 4, 2024 appeared first on .

In the Hog Talk podcast from Ever.Ag Insights, host Mike McGinnis and Joe Kerns, President of Ever.Ag’s Livestock Division, discuss the latest trends in hog prices, the outlook for pork production, and the impact of lower feed costs. They also explore domestic and export demand, including the influence of avian influenza and strong exports to Mexico.

Listen in for key insights and strategies for pork producers.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

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The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
© Ever.Ag 2024, confidential and proprietary.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

EVER.AG INSURANCE SERVICES IS A LICENSED INSURANCE AGENCY AND AN AFFILIATE OF EVER.AG. INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IN THIS WEBSITE IS COMPILED FOR THE CONVENIENCE OF THE USER. INFORMATION IS OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE AND IS FURNISHED WITHOUT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ACCURACY OR CONTENT. MARKET DATA IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME. Ever.Ag is a licensed insurance agency in the following states: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NM, NY, NC, ND, OK, OH, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY.

The post Hog Talk – September 10, 2024 appeared first on .

View the video version of this episode here.

In The Grain Feed, Jim Matthews is joined by a rotating cast of analysts to discuss what dairy and livestock producers can be doing to manage their risk. This week, Jim is joined by Jake Kingsley and Brad Summa, Heartland Regional Office Director with USDA-NASS.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod

© Ever.Ag 2024, confidential and proprietary.

The post The Grain Feed – September 5, 2024 (Audio Only) appeared first on .

In our weekly series From the Furrow, host Mike McGinnis and fellow grain geeks shed light on current market conditions and how grain producers can take action to manage their risk.

This week, Mike is joined Tanner Ehmke, Lead Economist, Grains and Oilseeds with CoBank. The 2024-25 marketing year started with slow export sales – is that trend likely to continue? What has to happen to keep grain sales on pace? How much US corn and soybeans will be up for grabs after the upcoming harvest? Mike and Tanner discuss those topics and a whole lot more.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

00;00;00;13 – 00;00;16;21

Futures trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the segment is not for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Opinions and statements of guests not affiliated with every egg of their own, and do not reflect the views of the brand. The accuracy of their statements can not be guaranteed by again.

00;00;16;23 – 00;00;37;21

Hello again and welcome to From the Furrow, brought to you by Ever AG Insights. Each week we talk with subject matter experts on news and topics affecting the grain markets. I’m your host, Mike McGinnis, and we get started today with a review of the markets. And today we’re up on the corn and soybean markets. The December corn contract trading about four, 12.75, about three and a half since new crop November.

00;00;37;21 – 00;00;50;05

Soybeans up nine and a half cents at 1021. Now we want to first off welcome our guest today, Tanner Mike banks, lead economist for grains and Oilseeds. First off, thanks, Tanner for joining us today.

00;00;50;08 – 00;00;51;19

Absolutely. Thanks for having me, Mike.

00;00;51;20 – 00;01;15;27

And we give this a timestamp. Wednesday, September 4th, 2024. We’re going to talk about two things for sure. The pace of U.S. corn and soybean exports. And also preview next week’s USDA waste report and the FSA acreage report that will be updated as well. First off, I’m reminded, Tanner, that the November soybean futures are up $0.68 from their August 18th low.

00;01;15;27 – 00;01;36;18

December corn futures are up $0.28 from their August 27th low, and December wheat futures are also up $0.50 from their August 26th low. So August ended fairly strong, right. And some of it had to do with exports, especially for the soybeans. But we’re still on a slow pace, I take it for the 20 2425 new crop season, I guess I should say.

00;01;36;18 – 00;02;04;03

Now, to make a real quick note, the July census U.S. soybean exports for this week were 55 million bushels versus 47 million last year. At this same month, the USDA was 1.7 billion bushel goal for 2023 2024 projections. Still looks pretty good. That’s for the soybeans. And let’s start there. I’m going to turn it over to you to give us your perspective on how we have done to finish the 2023, 2024 marketing year and how things look going forward.

00;02;04;06 – 00;02;23;24

I just pointed out there we did so much better this year. We ended on the 2324 crop year very strong notes, up 30 almost 40% on corn year over year. Just a phenomenal performance. But what you get when you have bushels to move. We I could crop. And so when you have the bushels there you’re able to achieve these higher export numbers.

00;02;23;24 – 00;02;47;05

But that being said we had some strong demand, especially from Mexico. Mexico really stepped up. And even though you have the bushels it takes, a buyer who’s willing and able to take. And Mexico was the top destination, taking so much more record amount, we can owe that to a couple of things one. The Mexican peso was very strong this past year, and so that made their ability to buy a lot stronger.

00;02;47;05 – 00;03;04;01

Their hands were stronger, so to speak, because of that stronger currency. And they also had a drought. So there’s a couple reasons right there. Why why our number one buyer in Mexico was able to take so much, plus the fact that we had the bushels to sell. But we also had other customers like Japan and Colombia, us also strong buyers.

00;03;04;01 – 00;03;25;16

They really stepped in also. So I think, you know, we had bushels to sell, but some strong customers, reliable customers who really, really stepped in. My concern here, heading into the new crop year that we just started, were down just a touch from where we were compared to last year’s pace. Mexico’s new crop sales are down just a little bit, as is the case with Japan.

00;03;25;16 – 00;03;44;22

And I think that we’re they’re looking at a smaller crop this year and also a much bigger crop from Brazil, potentially for them to buy from a smaller dropped buy from the US. And so I think what they’re doing is they’re hedging or exports coming out of Brazil and that we’re soybeans. We’re always talking about soybeans. How poor the sales pace is there.

00;03;44;22 – 00;04;05;00

We’re down, of course, year over year for 2324 heading into new crop year that we just started. And Mike, right about this a lot can’t be said enough starting the year behind more than 50% behind last year’s pace. But we’re really historically we’re at historically low levels for new crop sales, and there’s a lot to be written about there.

00;04;05;00 – 00;04;27;07

Horace, our currency is strong. The Brazilian rial is very weak. And that’s made Brazil’s exports very competitive to the US. Then you have also geopolitical issues. Chinese have been very reluctant to buy, although we have seen some strong sales here last couple of weeks. And very impressive. You still look at the data. We’re down more compared to years prior and we’ve got a lot to make up for.

00;04;27;08 – 00;04;43;03

So I’m still a little concerned about our new crop sales piece facility, and it’s going to take a significant event, I think, to turn things around. And I think really the story here is going to be about Brazil and Argentina. We’re going to have to have a supply shock down in South America for our soybean export program.

00;04;43;06 – 00;05;12;24

Really well. And Brazil is getting set to begin their planting season in a couple of weeks. I understand the northern part of the country has the worst drought right now since the 80s, and we’ll see if that continues or not. But you’re right, the focus will be on Brazil’s planting and growing season before we know it. Now in August, Tanner, you wrote an article for Cole Banks Knowledge Exchange section of the Kobe Inc.com website, and you asked, as a slow start to the export season like we’re having main a poor finish.

00;05;12;24 – 00;05;16;03

I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on how you answered that question.

00;05;16;05 – 00;05;39;23

Well, statistically, Mike, when you look at our early season sales and what we did, you just take the pace of new crop sales at the end of August and compare that to how the marketing year ended up. We did that going back over the past 20 years, and we found out the correlation is very low. So even though whether you start out strong or whether you start out really slow, that does not mean you are destined for a certain export year ahead.

00;05;39;26 – 00;05;58;11

There are so many things that can happen in the crop year ahead that to shift the flow of trade. So although we are down significantly from years prior, that does not guarantee that we’re going to have a poor finish to the crop year. As I said, or as you mentioned already, very dry, historically dry, even parts of South America.

00;05;58;12 – 00;06;17;12

They’ve got a lot to catch up on in regards to moisture. And so as they start their planting season, we’re going to keep an eye on what happens in Brazil that could change things drastically. What takes a crop failure down in Brazil to turn us forward very quickly? There’s a couple of other things that we highlight in our paper that you mentioned, Mike, that would be beneficial to our export program for soybeans.

00;06;17;14 – 00;06;39;25

Number one would be European demand. Aside from any supply shock that happens in Argentina and Brazil, in Europe, they need to start sourcing veggie oils that come from non deforested acres, meaning that if they’re going to be buying any soybean oil or canola oil or palm oil, they have to prove that the vegetables came from land that had not been deforested over the past ten years.

00;06;39;27 – 00;06;59;24

And so that means the United States is basically their first place they’re going to buy. We haven’t deforested any land here for soybeans in over 100 years. And so that is going to bring in new demand that the Europeans buy about 13 or 14 million tons of soybeans every year. So we might see some good demand. And there’s a couple of other things that we might benefit from.

00;06;59;25 – 00;07;17;08

Federal reserve is going to be cutting rates probably in September. Now it’s already been priced in the market. So we’ll see what happens afterwards. If they’re more aggressive on cutting rates, that would be a tailwind to our exports, as that would make our currency and it might make resilient rial stronger. And of course, the Chinese are also cutting interest rates.

00;07;17;08 – 00;07;37;26

And that might boost their economies as well. And that might support their demand. Animal protein and feed imports or soybean imports. So there’s a lot of things here that could change the tenor of trade. So I wouldn’t be too discouraged as of yet. Although it’s easy to get discouraged looking at these issues and exports sales numbers, we can’t say that the U.S. soybean export program is completely out.

00;07;37;26 – 00;07;39;10

There’s a lot of things that could change.

00;07;39;10 – 00;08;03;03

And then we turn our focus to corn, the corn exports for July. Anyway, the census numbers came out and they show that exports totaled 207 million bushels in July versus 115 million last July last year. So right now, the 2023, 2024 marketing year exports totaled 2.29 billion bushels. And that’s right at the USDA’s goal of 2.25 billion bushels.

00;08;03;03 – 00;08;06;20

So not a bad ending for the corn exports. How do you see it going forward?

00;08;06;24 – 00;08;24;11

Well, like I said, we’re starting the year just a tad behind last year’s pace. And the way I see it is we’ve got to have if we’re going to sustain a strong export program. First of all, you got to have the bushels and we’re going to be down from last year because the smaller we may be down further on production, you can see more reductions on yield.

00;08;24;17 – 00;08;42;14

We have a really record high heat here recently. So that may not be good on yields. And so you got to have the bushels there to support an export program. If we have smaller crop. And that’s going to impact our export program obviously. But a few other things we need the Mexicans to continue to buy. Right now the pace of buying is a little bit slower.

00;08;42;15 – 00;09;01;22

My concern is the Mexican economy. They have a new administration there that is a leftist government. And so that’s not been positive on their currency. Their currency is weakening. That’s going to be impacting the Mexicans ability to import from the United States. So I’m a little concerned there. But I do see a positive here potential with the weather in Brazil.

00;09;01;22 – 00;09;22;15

It’s very dry there. And if that dryness continues, then potentially we could be replacing some Brazilian corn exports. And so that would be a pause. And then of course the US dollar needs to come down a little bit and give us a tailwind. And we might see benefit there from the Federal Reserve cutting rates. So I think there’s some positives here, especially if we see some weather issues in Brazil.

00;09;22;15 – 00;09;27;26

But our main importers like Mexico, I am a little concerned there because their peso is starting to beat.

00;09;27;28 – 00;09;46;19

Well, let’s move on to the previewing next week’s USDA was the report. We’re going to see updated supply demand numbers for the US and world in the Wisely Report. We’ll get updated figures for U.S. crop yield and production and the crop Production report. And we’ll also see new acreage numbers from the FSA acreage report. So three different things to look at there.

00;09;46;19 – 00;10;08;24

But let’s start with free report estimates. They’re out just late this week. Two separate firms have released their numbers, with one estimating U.S. corn crop at 15 zero 2 billion bushels. So right at 15 billion, a yield of 180 2.2. And that’s versus USDA’s 15.1 billion bushel estimate in August. Now, the firm says about the same 1509 billion bushels.

00;10;08;24 – 00;10;27;09

And then for soybeans, one firm is estimating the production at 4.5 billion bushels and another one at 4.6 billion. That’s compared to USDA’s 4.5. So these numbers are all kind of right in there together. I don’t see a really big difference. What do you expect the USDA to come out with and print next Thursday?

00;10;27;10 – 00;10;50;06

Well, I think a yield reduction is coming. We saw during the Pro Farmer Crop tour, which I look at historically, the Pro Farmer Tour is fairly consistent in indicating where a USDA is going to be. In September. Reporting their changes from August, Pro farmer came out. There were yield of 180 1.1, which is smaller than the USDA. I’m going to put my corn yield at around 182.

00;10;50;06 – 00;11;07;07

That’s kind of where I’m at. And so obviously that’s going to tighten the balance sheet a little bit. USDA is going to move some numbers around on the balance sheet for usage. probably tighten up the export numbers a little bit. But I do see the ending stocks number coming down by 75 to 100 million based on what we see just on the tighter yield.

00;11;07;08 – 00;11;27;25

Now, you mentioned we might see some revisions on acreage in those acreage numbers. Half of the acreage numbers and plant acreage numbers might come back just a touch counting for that plant. Things like that happen up north western Midwest because of planting delays, because of ponding with all the flooding that we had. And so I think that might impact the harvest in numbers too.

00;11;27;25 – 00;11;31;13

So I think we’re definitely going to see a tighter balance sheet here than the report.

00;11;31;17 – 00;11;42;25

All right. Very good. Well, again, Tanner, thank you for your time. We do appreciate you’re a repeat guest because there’s a reason for that. Because you have very good information. And we rely on your research and the things that you do there at Cal Bank. Thank you.

00;11;42;27 – 00;11;43;21

No, absolutely.

00;11;43;21 – 00;12;00;09

Anytime I Tanner, Mike Kovacs, lead economist for Grains and Oilseeds, we thank Tanner for his appearance here today. And if you’ve enjoyed today’s From The Furrow, be sure to tell a friend or to and subscribe to us wherever you listen to your podcast. Thank you to the ever Egg Insights Crew for their work on today’s show.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.
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In the latest edition of the Parlor to Plate dairy podcast from Ever.Ag Insights, our all-star panel looks ahead to fall. How could dairy markets move as demand season picks up? What are producers thinking as margins improve – at least on paper? And how are grain markets faring as producers prepare for harvest?

Join host Erica Maedke and panelists Jon Spainhour, Ryan Yonkman and Brandon Weigel for a spirited discussion.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;27 – 00;00;29;19

Hello! Welcome to Parler to play a weekly podcast from Everything Insights, dedicated to offering listeners enlightening discussion and actionable intelligence about dairy markets. I’m your host, Erica McKee. We are excited to have you along today. If you like what you hear. Please like us. Subscribe and tell a friend or two. Today it’s Wednesday, September 4th around 1:00 central time.

00;00;29;20 – 00;00;54;02

A quick rundown of the markets CME block cheddar at 223 per pound, meaning $0.16 on the week. A rocket ride barrels are also up to 225, up $0.13 on the week. Butter down a nickel to 315. Nonfat dry milk today. Closed at $1.36, rising a nickel from last week. The grains complex has also been on the rise. December corn right now at 411 a bushel.

00;00;54;03 – 00;01;18;25

November soybeans at 1021 per bushel. An October soybean meal contract at 326 per ton. It’s a new week. And another all star panel from the egg financial services team. We’ve got Brandon Wagle helping dairy producers manage their feed risk. John Spain Hauer, out of our Chicago office, helps commercial clients manage their risks. And Ryan Jackman, also in our Chicago office, helps dairy producers manage their risk.

00;01;19;01 – 00;01;34;10

It’s starting to feel like fall out there. I wore a jacket to walk the kids to the school bus stop this morning. So here in Wisconsin, it definitely feels like the seasons are changing. Today, I’d like to ask our panel where the start of fall is going to take the grain and dairy markets. So let’s start with you, Brandon.

00;01;34;10 – 00;01;37;06

Harvest is just around the corner. What are you seeing out there?

00;01;37;13 – 00;01;58;01

Yeah sure is. People are really starting to roll into corn silage, specifically in the Midwest. Southern parts of the country have been in corn silage for a few weeks now and are starting with grain corn harvest. You know, this market has seen some volatility certainly come back into it. New crop corn prices have rallied about $0.25 off their lows here in the course of the last week and a half.

00;01;58;01 – 00;02;19;24

Soybeans are off about 60 to $0.70 off of their lows. So we’ve certainly seen some underlying support come into this new crop market is primarily being driven by we’re finally catching exports. You know, we had seen China be very absent from our soybean market up until about a month ago. Our soybeans were more expensive than our competitors in South America.

00;02;19;24 – 00;02;41;27

And as prices continued to break through middle of August, we finally started to see them come to the table. Our corn and bean prices are now the cheapest in the world, and as of this morning, our soybean prices were about $0.50 cheaper than South America. So naturally, when we start to see our prices trading at a big discount to our competitors, it’s going to attract trade from our global partners.

00;02;42;01 – 00;03;00;14

You know, you lay that up against what has been a weak dollar. It also makes us look that much more attractive when we talk about exports. So we’re also kind of moving through the time of year where seasonality wise, corn and beans tend to put in their seasonal lows. If you look at the five, ten and 15 year average, really in the last week of August or early September.

00;03;00;14 – 00;03;13;19

So we’re working through all of that. And managed money has carried a very short position in grains all year. They have started to pay back some of those shorts, start to cover some of those as we do work our way towards harvest, to take some of this risk off the table.

00;03;13;21 – 00;03;17;26

So has anybody gotten in the fields yet? Any word from the field on how crops are doing?

00;03;17;29 – 00;03;36;21

Yeah, it seems like everything we’ve been hearing from the silage front is good. Tonnage is in a good spot. Quality is good. Heard from a producer in southern Kentucky. Yields are, you know, quite a ways off their grain. And they were in a pocket that was pretty tough. We know that the worst areas are going to be western Minnesota.

00;03;36;21 – 00;03;59;15

And then some of those areas in Kentucky where they were dealing with extreme moisture at the start of the year, and then really they dealt with some extreme dryness as we kind of round it out the growing season. But by and large, everyone that has started into like seed corn harvest in the Midwest has been really happy. There hasn’t been much, by the way, of grain corn being harvested so far through the eye states, but definitely seed corn fields have been as good as expected, so.

00;03;59;21 – 00;04;02;14

So we might just hit another record corn crop this year.

00;04;02;18 – 00;04;20;11

Yeah, I’m in that boat. I don’t know that it’s going to be as big as what the USDA says. You know, their current forecasts are for six bushels over our prior record. I’m not sure that I’m quite in that ballpark, but I do think we can see at least close to a record around that 177 mark.

00;04;20;11 – 00;04;41;19

So thanks, Brandon. Let’s shift gears into the dairy markets, John. And as we get past Labor Day, from a buyers perspective, to me, this is peak season. This is the time where if you need to buy something, there’s not much left to get ready for the fall peak demand. What are you sensing in terms of clients actions right now and what they’re thinking about these markets?

00;04;41;19 – 00;05;03;23

Well, I think on the cheese market you’ve got people kind of on edge here. We’ve made a move up here to the, you know, the 223 block and 225 barrel area. I get the sense that in general, you know, I think people have been kind of prepared for a rally of some sort. I think we’ve exceeded a lot of people’s, you know, expectations.

00;05;03;23 – 00;05;20;26

If you will. And I think of a lot of it seems to have been supply driven, not necessarily demand driven. I guess as we go in to the fall, I think people are looking at it to say, you know, if we’re leaving the summer here at these high prices, maybe there’s room for prices to come back down a little bit.

00;05;20;26 – 00;05;38;21

But there probably is a floor out here somewhere simply because, as you’ve said a few times, and Erica, you and I have been on a few podcasts together today already. You know, you’ve got an instance where we’re going into the demand season, people. Even if demand is relatively bad, you’re going to run into that seasonal demand where people kind of have to have it.

00;05;38;21 – 00;06;03;15

You’re probably not going to not have cheese at a Christmas party or not have dips and everything else. So we’re going to run into a demand season here that’s going to be a little hard to ignore. And I think people are preparing themselves probably for higher prices, maybe not higher prices from here, but for prices to remain elevated, especially when we look at those cold storage numbers and the prospect of the possibility of milk remaining tight through the end of the year.

00;06;03;16 – 00;06;15;02

So I think the other market people have certainly been concerned about is the butter space. And at this point, I think Europe has been very strong and lending some support. Are you seeing folks here taking action yet?

00;06;15;07 – 00;06;34;11

Well, I think it’s awfully tempting to especially for a trading company or maybe a multinational company who has exposure in both continents to be in Europe right now and say, and butter is up to $4 a pound in some cases. And then looking back here in the US and saying, here we are at 315, right? That’s a real value.

00;06;34;11 – 00;06;52;11

And traditionally we do see those markets work off each other for most of this year, the butter markets, the EU, New Zealand and US have all run kind of in tandem with each other and held a very tight correlation. It has been Europe that has really accelerated away from everybody else here in the course of the last month and a half or so.

00;06;52;11 – 00;07;11;23

I think that is going to keep buyers on guard here. We probably I don’t believe we’ve exported anything yet and it’s going to be difficult. Maybe for us to export. But I think just that price spread right now is going to keep people on guard to say, if we do go to much lower, we probably are going to export something we only sand in.

00;07;11;23 – 00;07;33;07

The gears I want to throw into that argument is New Zealand is even cheaper than we are. Their GDP yesterday went off essentially unchanged for their fat prices and they’re down into below $3 area and they have a preferential tariff. If people should be looking for anybody’s fat right now, they should be looking for New Zealand because it is the cheapest in the world and the several regions.

00;07;33;07 – 00;07;47;10

It has preferential tariffs. They did not come looking for it. We did not rally, if you will. And so it kind of says, boy maybe we won’t export. I don’t know, but I do think it’s hard to ignore that $4 price that’s trading in Europe right now.

00;07;47;11 – 00;08;05;03

Thanks, John. And for those of our listeners who want a little more insight about that GDP events, John does its own podcast with Cody Koster out on YouTube or the MRA channel, and you can catch it there. Brian, let’s switch to you and think from a dairy producer perspective. So seasonally we’re near the bottom of the annual curve.

00;08;05;03 – 00;08;16;26

We’re looking at some of the best margins on paper at least. What are producers thinking right now, especially as they go into this fall season and seeing some really good class three prices that they haven’t seen in a while?

00;08;16;26 – 00;08;38;07

Yeah, I think look, right now we’re finally getting that kind of sigh of relief that this rally is happening. I think conversations for the last few months have strongly centered around how short supply was our heifer market, and how it almost seemed inevitable that was going to matter. And now here we are. It matters, right? Malik is trading $23 in front of our face.

00;08;38;07 – 00;09;05;10

You know the right here, right now. Guys are playing catch up. We all know we’ve talked about last year enough and how tough that year was. But we’re really switching gears from, hey, waiting for the rally, having good reasons for why we should rally. Now. Here we sit and we’re really trying to bring the horns in just a little bit as we start to look at 2025, because to your point of the milk to feed relationship and even with higher costs, trust me, with a Q1 averaging $21 between class three and class four, there’s opportunity there for our dairies.

00;09;05;10 – 00;09;20;24

I don’t care what state you’re in, so we’re really trying to, you know, kind of get back on the horse here of managing risk. Not to say it’s easy to be bearish. I think John raised some good points of things. We’re watching, you know, both on the negative side let’s say what’s going on in New Zealand. But also kind of the panic happening in Europe to the upside.

00;09;20;25 – 00;09;37;15

Talk about bluetongue. We can talk about avian here. All those things. Still a lot of wild cards I think in play. But to me it’s time to dumb it down. And the reality is when we look at a curve out there again, you’ve got class three at 20 and class four at almost 22. I think that becomes an easy arena for dairies to start to become risk off.

00;09;37;15 – 00;09;57;20

Manage that risk right by your puts. Be bullish. See what can happen. Certainly the supply tightness I think everyone agrees is something that could have some staying power. Going back to the heifer situation we have and what’s going on in Europe. But up at these levels, I think demand becomes a very important thing as we are talking some version of, you know, top ten percentile on prices.

00;09;57;21 – 00;10;14;14

You have fun with Q1. I think it’s two times in the last 20 years we’ve actually been able to settle at these prices. So it’s not to say we can’t write, but like history tells us, we need to be a bull or these prices usually tend to kill demand and inspire supply. So that’s it from the dairy. And that’s kind of what we’re looking at.

00;10;14;14 – 00;10;22;13

Certainly in the short term things feel good, still look good, but really focused at this point. Finally on 2025 and trying to be smart about that curve out there.

00;10;22;19 – 00;10;42;07

A big thank you to Brandon, John and Ryan for joining me today and sharing your insights with our listeners. Thank you, as always, to our media team for mixing and mastering, and thank you to the listeners for joining us today. If you like what you hear, subscribe on your favorite app. And if you’d like to learn more about how we help people manage risk, please contact us at Insights at ever.ag

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The following music was used for this media project:

Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd

Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29

License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license

Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod

© Ever.Ag 2023, confidential and proprietary.

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