The Ever.Ag Podcast

In this episode of Hog Talk, host Phil Plourd and guest Tom Brincks discuss the rise of livestock insurance products and their role in managing market volatility. Tom shares insights on the evolution of risk management in farming, from his personal journey to the rapid adoption of tools like Livestock Risk Protection.

Tune in to learn how these innovations are helping farmers secure long-term profitability in an unpredictable market!

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

00;00;00;09 – 00;00;09;00

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;09;02 – 00;00;29;01

Hello and welcome to HARDtalk. Brought to you by Ever AG Insights. On this podcast, we talk with subject matter experts on news and topics affecting the swine industry and hog markets. I’m your host, Phil Plourde. Just start with a quick market recap. As of yesterday, Monday, November 11th, nearby lean hog futures were at 8178 per 108. That was down 2% from the week prior.

00;00;29;03 – 00;00;47;17

This week we’re excited to have Tom brings with us. Tom is the vice president of insurance and operations over here ever AG. It helps lead our livestock risk management business. It’s going to be a little inside baseball today. Tom, but I think that our listeners will enjoy a view of the evolution of the risk marketplace for livestock and where we’re going.

00;00;47;17 – 00;00;49;16

And we can talk a little hogs, if that’s all right with you.

00;00;49;17 – 00;00;50;23

Sounds good. I’m glad to be here.

00;00;50;23 – 00;00;53;29

So you’re the head of our livestock risk management business. How did you get here?

00;00;54;01 – 00;01;13;16

Long story. I’ll try to keep it short. So I became an everyday acquisition pig about three years ago. The founder of that group, Joe Kerns, was an old college friend of mine. Joe and I were complete opposites, but our paths crossed several times in college, and we’ve always stayed in touch jokingly throughout the years. He always kept saying I should come to work for.

00;01;13;17 – 00;01;30;22

And about three years ago, when the livestock related insurance products started to take off, he called me like, I have a nickname, they call me Cub. He’s like, Cub, I need you. This thing’s going to be big. Yeah, we need to make sure we do it right. And I was at a point in my life where I was ready for a transition, and lo and behold, I came to work for him.

00;01;30;22 – 00;01;32;26

And I’ve enjoyed every day since Tom.

00;01;32;29 – 00;01;40;17

I think you have a background in insurance generally. Can you talk about your experience there and the role of insurance products in the evolution of risk management?

00;01;40;23 – 00;01;57;26

Give me a little background. If you talk to most people who have been an insurance, they always say, everybody has a new church story. And my story was years ago. I was confronted by a group of farmers that asked if I wanted to join a board for the small insurance company in western Iowa. Yeah, I’m joking. Like, no, I don’t have time.

00;01;57;26 – 00;02;12;29

And they’re like, oh yeah, this is a great deal. It’s six meetings a year and you get paid for each meeting. And we would love to have you on a board of directors. So I after a lot of arm twisting, I finally agreed. And then two days before the annual meeting, they said, oh, by the way, we haven’t told you that we’re going to also elected chairman of the board.

00;02;13;00 – 00;02;36;13

And that was kind of my introduction to insurance. And I came in mostly with a farmer night background and suddenly became chairman of the board of the small insurance company, Western Iowa. And while I served that role for several years, I kind of transitioned into consulting role and mostly in the crop protection space. And my board convinced me to step down as chairman of the board and accepted the major spot with the insurance company.

00;02;36;13 – 00;02;44;20

So that was my introduction to insurance, mostly on the PSC side, but we also had an internal agency where we offered crop insurance through that agency.

00;02;44;20 – 00;02;59;26

So row crop insurance has been popular for years, kind of a mainstay of the grain business, if you will. Some of these livestock products are much newer. Can you talk about what products we’re using these days and how? I mean, I think they’re revolutionary. I’m guessing you agree. Can you talk about that for a second?

00;02;59;26 – 00;03;26;08

You’re exactly right. I mean, a lot of the we call rural crop insurance products date back over 80 years across the country. But in the early 90s, some of the revenue type products started taking off about the same time. You know the mindset, if this works for real crop, why wouldn’t it work for livestock? So products like livestock risk protection, which basically puts a floor under products, livestock gross margin, you know, put a margin in place or also DRP, they start to take off.

00;03;26;08 – 00;03;48;07

So the products have been around. But fast forward to basically Covid and we suddenly started instead of paying for the premium upfront, it was put in place where you could pay for the premium on the back end. And then with Covid and partly with the trumpet ministration, the subsidy levels were increased for these products, which suddenly brought a whole new level of attraction to to the products into the industry.

00;03;48;07 – 00;04;02;16

And so clients of PFG AG and now ever ag lots of futures and options stuff, free insurance and now a pretty heavy adoption rate using some of these insurance products either in exclusively or in concert with some of these other more traditional risk management products.

00;04;02;16 – 00;04;24;09

Right? Yes, definitely. So we closed out what they call a crop year for livestock, which June 30th, 2024. We closed out the crop year 2020 for the industry was about $1.4 billion. And they’re still forecast for this market could grow to as much as 6 to 8 billion. I don’t know who’s doing the forecast, but we went from a couple hundred thousand to 1.4 billion.

00;04;24;09 – 00;04;28;29

And for years, I mean, there’s still a lot of potential growth for these products.

00;04;28;29 – 00;04;46;09

And we’re talking swine and cattle and certainly elsewhere, the ever ag universe. There’s a huge business with the Dairy Revenue Protection, which is part of the same family of products. So it has revolutionized dairy risk management. And it seems like it’s done the same in the livestock side. So going back to the farm itself a little bit, you’ve spent a lifetime in central Iowa.

00;04;46;13 – 00;04;54;16

How has agriculture changed over time in Iowa and elsewhere, in your opinion? What are some of the things that are the same and what are the things that are different that you see today?

00;04;54;16 – 00;05;26;04

Technology and just the size and scale of operations continues to evolve. I’m old enough to where if you had 160 acres and a few thousand a few cows, you had a viable farming operation. I mean, nowadays the scale of the operations is just mass. So that’s been probably, I would say, the biggest change. Yeah. Just, you know, going from small to large on the same side, I would say egg is still a people, but it’s always been a people business and and still people most I mean, people work with people they like.

00;05;26;10 – 00;05;28;29

Yeah. You have to have that relationship to be successful.

00;05;28;29 – 00;05;31;15

It’s a lot of boots on the ground, right? I mean, that hasn’t changed.

00;05;31;17 – 00;05;35;11

Belly to belly, whatever term you want to use, it’s the people with no.

00;05;35;11 – 00;05;58;28

Farmer attitudes towards risk management in general and profitability. And I mean, I know we talk all the time about we are here to protect risk, not to take risks, right? To manage risk, not to take on additional risk. And the mindset around margin management and sustainable profitability. Has that changed? Have you seen an evolution in that direction psychologically and mentally over the years with our farmer clients?

00;05;58;28 – 00;06;15;27

I would say for sure, you know, we talked about, you know, the transition from one generation to the next. And I think as you continue to make that transition, risk management becomes more acceptable. But this is an extremely volatile business. I mean, one day you’re filthy rich and the next day you’re wondering, how are you going to survive?

00;06;15;27 – 00;06;22;29

And when you have that kind of volatility and egg risk management just helps you sleep better at night. And that’s a key thing to survival.

00;06;23;01 – 00;06;38;22

Right? We always talk about, hey, look you may miss the highs but you’re going to survive the lows right. Keep out of the ditch and when you see abundant profitability, lock it in to the extent possible. I mean, you know, there’s always considerations of how and how far, how much. But we try not to sleep on profitability. Is that then that’s a fair assessment.

00;06;38;24 – 00;06;39;20

Very fair.

00;06;39;22 – 00;06;47;15

And in the hog markets we’ve had extended periods of where you could be underwater and deep underwater. And that hasn’t changed. Right.

00;06;47;18 – 00;06;50;29

And it’s probably not going to change. It’s always going to be for business.

00;06;50;29 – 00;07;11;22

Looking at that swine marketplace, what are some of the things that you follow and find interesting in the Ever AG Group’s day to day coverage? I’m going to pause and say that the AG Livestock team, the swine team is an incredible collection of people with all kinds of different backgrounds, and it’s a really incredible think tank. If you will know more about hogs than I did a year ago.

00;07;11;22 – 00;07;20;27

For darn sure. I love listening to the group because there’s just so much smart conversation going on every day. What are the things that you find fascinating as you contemplate the wide markets and cattle markets day to day?

00;07;21;03 – 00;07;43;06

So keep in mind that I do not come from a risk management background. I’ve been in this role for about three years, so it’s kind of been drinking from a fire hose. I have always been a news junkie with facts and figures and statistics and percentages have always intrigued me. But what’s really neat about, especially now that we joined everything, is I don’t have that many subscriptions to the different papers.

00;07;43;07 – 00;08;06;27

I mean, we have a constant flow of information from 630 in the morning till, you know, sometimes well into 2:00 at night. And I just always intrigued by the depth at which this team looks at everything. And we might not necessarily analyze it. Right. But it’s rare that we get surprised by something we didn’t see. Come. When you get a report and you can look at it, the day to day comparison or week over week or month over month.

00;08;06;27 – 00;08;18;26

I mean, we look at it, but every different direction. You can look at it in depth. The knowledge is just fascinates me. It keeps this job so interesting because I didn’t realize people looked at markets to that depth.

00;08;19;01 – 00;08;39;27

And for the just general news junkie or sort of marketplace junkies. I mean, we talk about China, right? What’s the hog price in China day to day? And the dairy side, we care because of impacts. We prices, believe it or not, we look at I’m sure this is elementary for the long time swine market you know adherence. But I think it’s fun and interesting to hear like well hey look, the bellies came out high today that drove the cutout up.

00;08;39;27 – 00;08;47;06

And therefore, you know, the indexes should move this way. And we expect that to do this to the lean hog market. I mean, that’s a day to day drama, right?

00;08;47;06 – 00;08;56;03

It is. I mean, there is a wealth of information. And there’s an old adage that says, you know, knowledge is power. The more information you have, hopefully the better decisions you can make.

00;08;56;09 – 00;09;04;03

And just from a client service perspective, how are we sharing that knowledge with our clients? I mean, we do a lot of publications. How else do we interact with our clients in that arena?

00;09;04;03 – 00;09;23;03

We try to define that my client, what their needs are, but everybody has access to the publication. Some people we do weekly calls, we have some we do daily calls. But when we’re we’re always available and it’s not uncommon to have team members on the phone at 5 a.m. one morning and again, this latest 10:00 at night, everybody’s needs are different.

00;09;23;03 – 00;09;28;09

You just kind of have to put together a plan that works for what their needs are, and make sure you address with that for.

00;09;28;12 – 00;09;46;21

Who knows, maybe this podcast someday will factor prominently into that mix. Tom, thank you so much for joining us on Hog Talk this week. I enjoy working with you and the swine livestock team and we’ll be back in a couple weeks with another edition of Hog Talk. If you enjoyed listening to Hog Talk, be sure to tell a friend or two and subscribe to us wherever you listen to your podcast.

00;09;46;21 – 00;09;49;07

And thank you to the Insights Crew for their work on today’s show.

The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
© Ever.Ag 2024, confidential and proprietary.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

EVER.AG INSURANCE SERVICES IS A LICENSED INSURANCE AGENCY AND AN AFFILIATE OF EVER.AG. INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IN THIS WEBSITE IS COMPILED FOR THE CONVENIENCE OF THE USER. INFORMATION IS OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE AND IS FURNISHED WITHOUT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ACCURACY OR CONTENT. MARKET DATA IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME. Ever.Ag is a licensed insurance agency in the following states: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NM, NY, NC, ND, OK, OH, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY.

The post Hog Talk – November 12, 2024 appeared first on .

In the latest edition of the Parlor to Plate dairy podcast from Ever.Ag Insights, our all-star panel discusses 2025 outlooks. How could grain markets impact dairy producer profitability in the coming months? How are cheese supply and demand looking into next year? What strategies should producers consider when hedging next year’s risk?

Join host Erica Maedke and panelists Jon Spainhour, Ryan Yonkman and Brandon Weigel for a spirited discussion.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;27 – 00;00;33;25

Hello. Welcome to Parler to Play, a weekly podcast from Corporate Insights dedicated to offering listeners enlightening discussion and actionable intelligence about dairy markets. I’m your host today, Erica McKee. We are excited to have you along. And if you like what you hear, please like us. Subscribe and tell a friend or two. Today’s recording. It’s Wednesday, November 6th around 11 central time, so we are still waiting for all of the spot dairy markets to close.

00;00;33;25 – 00;00;57;12

Quick rundown today’s markets. We know Black Cheddar is at a 175, down $0.14 from last week. Wednesday barrels at 181 down 11. Now we’re still waiting for the butter market. But as of yesterday’s calls we were down $0.03 from the prior Tuesday at 268. Nonfat dry milk closed yesterday at 140. That’s up a penny from a week before today in the green complex.

00;00;57;12 – 00;01;24;23

December corn is trading at 425 per bushel. That is up $0.06 on the day. January soybeans at 1002, and then December soybean meal at $298 per ton. It is a new week. In another star studded panel from the financial services team on our team, we have Brandon Weigel with us today from our commercial division, John Speed Hower. He is one of our media stars of the GDC Analysis Podcast and host of the Forecast Update live video series.

00;01;24;23 – 00;01;38;22

And finally, from our producer group we have Ryan Jackman. So I’d like to ask our panel today, what are they watching for clues on how the 2025 dairy markets will shape up. So let’s start with you, Brandon. Let’s talk grains and what that matters to dairy producers.

00;01;38;22 – 00;01;56;12

So I guess the big thing that everyone’s watching as it pertains to grain and feed markets, as we move towards 2025 and coming out of harvest here this fall, is what is South American weather doing? That’s been the hot topic. We know that harvest in the Midwest went very well. Harvest pace is well above where it’s ever been.

00;01;56;12 – 00;02;14;06

I mean, this is a record pace for most producers. A lot of this corn bean crop that got pulled out has been taken out over the course of the last six weeks, and there’s very few people that have corner beans left to harvest. Yield results have been strong. We know that this market is going to continue to face some fundamental headwinds from the supply side.

00;02;14;06 – 00;02;36;09

I think that there’s very few concerns about, you know, having an abundant crop. We know that the domestic corn and soybean balance sheet is in a much better position in order to spend the last several years. And now South America kind of comes into focus. They were very delayed on their planting piece. If we drag this thing back, you know, just four weeks ago, they were only about 10% done with bean planting and a lot of grass, which is that primary being growing region of Brazil.

00;02;36;09 – 00;02;53;17

Fast forward here to this week. And now there are 80% planted in there, right back on track with their five year average. So as long as they continue to see good weather come to fruition, this market’s going to continue to face some of those supply driven headwinds. You know, on the flip side, we’ve kind of got a balance this up with some of the recent headlines around the election.

00;02;53;17 – 00;03;12;27

Right. And that’s where we talk about export demand specifically with soybeans in general. You know soybeans. They started off the day very poorly. We’ll say that they’ve actually recovered throughout the day. I think as the vines have digested some of this news around the election results end of the day, though, we’ve got some supply headwinds that are going to be keeping a lid over this market.

00;03;12;27 – 00;03;25;18

As we look at both the protein market and the corn market for dairy producers and, you know, downside opportunity, I think that, you know, really comes of South America’s weather continues to come at a pace that allows for that crop to potentially be another record.

00;03;25;21 – 00;03;34;27

So, Brandon, I know a lot of people have been watching us export numbers. We had a couple of really big buys. Do you see anything moving there, give or take the election?

00;03;34;27 – 00;03;58;00

Yeah, I think so. We can certainly see some softening of that export strength that we’ve seen recently as we work our way into 2025. I think that as we potentially see some of these policy changes, trade or tariffs implications, that could certainly slow the pace of export demand specifically with China. We know that’s the big one. I think there’s still some question marks as to if Mexico will be impacted with tariffs.

00;03;58;00 – 00;04;06;00

Obviously that could hurt corn export demand if we see anything happen with Mexico. But I would expect to see that slow as we move into 2025.

00;04;06;00 – 00;04;13;18

That’s good feedback Brian. And put inside. John, how about you. What are you looking ahead to in the dairy markets as you look through 2025?

00;04;13;19 – 00;04;33;22

Well, I hate to steal the thunder from the forecast update live that we talked about this morning, but there is a chart that Phil put on there, which is our favorite look. And it essentially shows the expansion and finished goods for cheese capacity. And then we match that up against the long term compound average growth rates of cheese demand.

00;04;33;22 – 00;04;58;02

And when you look at that, there are times where we stair step a little bit of capacity increase and we barely meet the growth in demand. But we’re in fairly good balance. What I think I’m looking at as we move into 2025, we’ll have more and more plants coming online with finished goods, cheese capacity and it appears, you know, on paper at least, that it’s going to temporarily outstrip the demand side of things.

00;04;58;02 – 00;05;18;21

And I think that for me, that says a lot when we look at it through the lens of the export side of things, the U.S. is probably getting into a potential export competitiveness versus Europe. We’re seeing the European prices. You know, they’ve moved lower on cheese, but still relatively strong. And that 205 to 10 area on the futures.

00;05;18;21 – 00;05;43;29

I look out there and see our Q1 futures right now for cheese are you know in that 185. So that feels like we could get some exports in the past. We might look at that potential and say that’s pretty bullish. Yet exports prices rise have no exports. Prices decline. I think when we look at it through the context of the cheese capacity that’s coming online, it’s kind of one of those deals where you’re saying, I think we’re going to need those exports just to stay above.

00;05;44;01 – 00;06;05;20

We need something to carry that product out. So I’m looking at it saying in the 2025, specifically through the lens of cheese, that we’re steady to lower from our current prices and our current future structure. If we bring on more milk production, that probably starts to accelerate that and bring the price down a little bit more. When it comes to butter, that’s a difficult one.

00;06;05;20 – 00;06;27;08

As of right now, all these cheese plants that go up theoretically mean, and the absence of more milk that that milk is going to come out of the butter powder plants and that can rob some of that capacity or the finish goes on there. That is a support of argument. However, if we do backfill this in with more milk production, right, that kind of alleviates that support of this as well.

00;06;27;08 – 00;06;29;12

That’s what I’m looking at going into 2025.

00;06;29;13 – 00;06;44;21

So as we think about exports, Mexico is generally our largest customer for cheese for nonfat. You had mentioned that the markets were moving a bit this morning in the currency space. How big is that move. And then do you see that impacting exports?

00;06;44;21 – 00;07;07;21

Well, it’s funny, Brandon mentioned earlier that the grain market kind of had its move this morning and recovered. It looks like the peso had its move this morning and recovered a little bit. So kind of a knee jerk reaction lower. But having recovered you know its losses since then. However I would point out that the peso is down in a big way versus where it was going back to the middle of May.

00;07;07;21 – 00;07;26;26

So, you know, peso moving lower removes some of that Mexican purchasing power. And then when it comes to cheese, I think a lot of the exports that we saw earlier in the year were done potentially at a flat price. When we were at $1.40, $1.50, right. And we had a strong peso. As we move forward here, you know, I know the cheese market’s coming off its highs.

00;07;26;26 – 00;07;37;19

But we’re at $1.75 and a peso that’s weaker. I think we’ll put that in the category of not necessarily being bearish. But it’s certainly not bullish. And it probably creates some headwinds for US exports.

00;07;37;21 – 00;07;44;11

Thanks for your comments John. Those are good Ryan. Let’s turn it to you. What are you looking ahead in terms of finding clues about 2025?

00;07;44;16 – 00;08;00;24

Yeah, I think the writing on the wall for us has been in place now for a couple months. As far as how we’ve been trying to see this for the dairy. I mean, you go back to the September timeframe when hindsight’s 2020, but, you know, we made our highs. That’s pretty seasonal time to do it. And felt feed margins were at their extremes.

00;08;00;24 – 00;08;19;05

And that was when we really started looking forward for the dairies. Your October through March into Q2 is, you know, hey, it’s go time to start putting some of this margin to bed. Fast forward to today. Here’s the good the bad news, the bad news. Spot milk prices broke about $6 100 right from the highs and which is strongly affected in November December.

00;08;19;05 – 00;08;36;25

But when you look at Janda of next year, Q1 is down about $0.70. But as a whole, Unity’s class story is about 20 to $0.30 off its high as a whole. Unity’s class four I think is about 20 to $0.30 off its high. So as much as hey, you missed a break right in front of you, the 2025 curve.

00;08;36;26 – 00;08;55;08

And that’s really where we assess the risk to be the greatest. That’s part of the curve we really need to pay attention to. You haven’t missed the boat yet. Yes, Q1 has moved, but the rest of the year is still there, really held in really well, very flat curve. Technically we have a carry in the curve now. If you look at class three with today’s cash move, East is trading a premium.

00;08;55;08 – 00;09;14;21

So take this one for a thought process. Jan to March milk is worth more than what it’s trading today. That’s kind of a goofy statement when you think about we’re still in November and in theory in the last tropical holiday orders. So we still view the opportunity as being one that favors dairies go into next year. I think to have a strong opinion in next year is a tricky thing.

00;09;14;21 – 00;09;35;19

So I really think you got to let the numbers do the talking. The margin opportunities. Milk in a funnel on a percentile basis is still very high. I think John laid out very nicely the obvious risks that are in front of us for next year, and I think some of them do look pretty obvious. So I think to stare at next year’s market, say, doesn’t have downside or say it has to go up is a difficult program to sign up for.

00;09;35;19 – 00;09;55;14

So we’re trying to be active. We’re hopeful in the very short term. To John’s point of view, we’re in the one 70s now, cheapest price we’ve been since last April with some holiday orders. I’d love to see one more little pop year for dairies to continue attacking the rest of the year. We don’t feel great or certain that’s going to happen, so 2025 is a big focus and just making sure guys don’t blindly let it slip away.

00;09;55;17 – 00;10;17;19

Appreciate your insights, Ryan. A big thank you to Brandon, John and Ryan for joining me on today’s episode and sharing your thoughts with our listeners. Thank you, as always, to our media team for mixing and mastering. And thank you to the listeners for joining us today. If you like what you hear, subscribe on your favorite app. And if you’d like to learn more about how we help people manage risk, contact us at insights at ever.ag.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The following music was used for this media project:

Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd

Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29

License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license

Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod

© Ever.Ag 2023, confidential and proprietary.

The post Parlor to Plate – November 6, 2024 appeared first on .

View the video version of this episode here.

In The Grain Feed, Jim Matthews is joined by a rotating cast of analysts to discuss what dairy and livestock producers can be doing to manage their risk. This week, Jim is joined by Jake Kingsley and Phil Plourd.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
© Ever.Ag 2024, confidential and proprietary.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The post The Grain Feed – November 6, 2024 (Audio Only) appeared first on .

Cody Koster and Jon Spainhour take a deep dive into this week’s GDT report.

Questions or comments? Contact Jon at [email protected], Cody at [email protected], or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.

(Transcript auto-generated)

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;17 – 00;00;15;24

Hello everybody. Welcome back to another GDC Tuesday. I’m your host, Cody Koster, with me from Chicago, Mr. John Spade Howard. John, how are you today?

00;00;15;24 – 00;00;19;22

Doing all right, Cody, happy to be here on this fine Tuesday afternoon.

00;00;19;22 – 00;00;41;03

We are happy to have you here. We had a little two week lag in the GDC. This was one of those weird ones where instead of every other week, it was the third week. But nonetheless, we are back on the 5th of November to talk a little global dairy trade. So if I’m not mistaken, we were actually unchanged on the wax auction and a 3.8% on today’s transactions.

00;00;41;06 – 00;00;59;22

Yeah, Cody, today was a big auction up rather significantly, as you mentioned there. There were some big winners out here today. First of all, let’s start with homo powder. A kind of the big dog of the whole auction was up for point 5%. And that was a pretty big move for homo powder. And we don’t normally see it move that much or that aggressively.

00;00;59;22 – 00;01;23;07

That number was up. When we look at it in terms of expectations based on where futures were trading, we would say that it came in slightly over where the futures were trading and slightly over where the GTI pole trading, and then when we stick with the powder side here and go to skim milk powder, skim milk was up 3.8%, came in roughly at about a buck 29 on a U.S. dollars per pound basis.

00;01;23;07 – 00;01;42;17

I would point out that that number came in a little bit under futures expectations. So I think it came right in along where the GTI also expectations were. But when it comes to the futures futures, we’re looking for about another $100 a ton more out of that. So don’t want to take away from the fact that we were up 3.8%.

00;01;42;17 – 00;02;11;20

But I do want to mention that, skim milk powder that comes in a little bit below expectations when it comes to the fat side of things. AMF up 4.6%, water up 7.6%. Let’s use butter as the barometer here. And we’ll say on a US dollars per pound basis came in about $3.17 a pound. So when we think about that in terms of the rest of the world here, for sure we can say the US butter market now is significantly below the rest of the world.

00;02;11;21 – 00;02;38;10

We’re at 200 67.5. We just pointed out that the GDP is at 317. And we would say that Europe is still up in that 385 and 390 area on butter. So this auction was big and it shows that there might be some butter that is getting exported out of New Zealand, possibly at the expense of Europe. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see European prices ease as these butter prices came up on the GDP.

00;02;38;12 – 00;03;01;13

But we’ll probably need to wait to see that happen. From a seasonal perspective, when we look at cheese cheddar up, 5.8% came in at $2.26 a pound. Mozzarella was up 1.1%, up to $2.09. Both of those are quite a bit higher than the US price. And just to give a frame of reference in here, we would say that the European prices are higher than that.

00;03;01;13 – 00;03;25;21

We would say that mozzarella trading in that 225 area and their futures a little bit below that. So we’d say that European and New Zealand prices are kind of right in parity with each other, whereas the US price right now, when we look at it after today, we went down $1.79 and blocks on a $1.83 in barrel. So if we frame all this up, we would say the US is the cheapest cheese price in the world.

00;03;25;21 – 00;03;48;29

Now the euro, the cheapest butter price in the world. When it comes to nonfat, we’d say nonfat price. After today’s auction, we went to a $1. 39 five here in the US, or a dollar 39.5 New Zealand price is $1.29 ish. And then below that, we would say the European price is somewhere around 122 to 125. So the US is by far the highest nonfat skim price in the.

00;03;48;29 – 00;04;10;22

World, quite a bit higher to lower there. It’s interesting how we can be such a discrepancy in the cheese price, but when you switch to the glass for the nonfat side at such a higher price than what they have overseas right now, it’s just very interesting to look at it kind of apples to apples. But I know you’ve said that’s not quite the case on especially the cheese front, because there are a little different inner workings of that.

00;04;10;24 – 00;04;27;28

You bet. And on the cheese front, they are different somewhere in there, that differential in the price, even though the products are different, that will catch if the European and the New Zealand price stay high or continue to move higher, that will make a difference here in the US. But I think here in the US right now, we’ve maybe missed that export window.

00;04;27;28 – 00;04;54;04

Feels like maybe going into the end of the fourth quarter here. And at the same point in time, we have more finished goods of cheese product coming on. So I think we might see a discrepancy in the US cheese price versus the international price. But as Phillip Florida said here several times, sometimes the US price has to go to a level where you’re able to put a sign up and wave your hands and say, hey, there’s a sale going on over here before we attract those international buyers.

00;04;54;04 – 00;04;57;13

And then prices suddenly go higher because we do have exports.

00;04;57;16 – 00;05;00;21

It kind of feels like we’re heading towards that window waving opportunity at this point.

00;05;00;21 – 00;05;22;00

We’re not quite there yet, I don’t think. And I say I don’t think maybe on a spot basis when it comes to the futures basis, which we would say probably has more in dictating exports. I would say the futures over in Europe right now are two, 10 to 15 ish. Here we are after today’s just looking at it here, roughly $1.86 maybe that’s starting to get some attention.

00;05;22;00 – 00;05;35;05

I’m not sure that it’s going to rule the day though. We probably have to see things. You know, we need a little bit more of a difference than that before we’re able to capture those exports. But there’s definitely talk out there that people are kicking the tires and paying attention on the export side.

00;05;35;06 – 00;05;42;23

Gotcha. Well, John, as far as the regions of purchasing by regions, is there anything big that stuck out to you on that front?

00;05;42;24 – 00;06;01;29

Yeah, just looking in here. China, they were here today. They were up 8% year over year. So if we were looking at is China buying more or less this year we would say they’re buying more. They bought 8% more on this auction than they bought last year at the same point in time versus last event, their purchasing was down 11%.

00;06;01;29 – 00;06;23;24

So still a good showing out of China, just not as strong as it was last time. When it comes to Southeast Asia, you know, the other powerhouse player in they’re down 20% year over year, down 19% on an event change. The Middle East was maybe a marginal flex buyer on this one, up 2% on a year over year basis, but up 63% versus the last auction.

00;06;23;24 – 00;06;40;18

When we look at it, I guess we can say, yeah, China was there. The Middle East backed off a little bit. Something I think is important to point out, though, is, you know, there was a little bit less product for sale on this auction than there was on the last auction. I don’t know that it’s the biggest deal, but maybe 6% or so less product.

00;06;40;18 – 00;06;56;18

So I think we need to be cognizant of that. Yes, China bought less, but there was also less for sale. And I think that less for sale was a seasonal element. Right. It’s just we would expect to see those volumes start to step down on the offer a little bit. And as a result, we’d expect to see buyers step down.

00;06;56;18 – 00;07;25;11

If those buyers do stay in here on a seasonal basis. I think that puts us in a situation where prices are going to be sustained or even move higher. If we see those buyers start to step off here, maybe we go lower. I would say, though, on the Chinese side, milk production in China right now. We saw a report this morning down 6.9%, suggests that we could see the Chinese remain buyers in here as they try to make up for a little bit of the loss and the domestic milk supply.

00;07;25;11 – 00;07;38;24

However, we’ve been warned by several different people that’s a good thing to keep an eye on, and possibly that will happen. But domestic demand in China itself for dairy products is still kind of behind the eight ball right now, so we want to be cognizant of that as well.

00;07;38;25 – 00;07;46;17

Awesome. Well, besides those hard hitting facts right there, John, is there anything else that really stuck out of this GTI specifically to you?

00;07;46;21 – 00;08;06;16

You know, I guess I would say it’s interesting that the US nonfat skim price has been able to sustain the premium that it has for so long. And then today as the GTI went higher, we went higher as well. So there still is a bit of a bid out here on skim, and maybe the US is dragging the rest of the world higher.

00;08;06;16 – 00;08;27;25

I just can’t help but feel like the US is maybe at the upper bands of our nonfat potential. Maybe we can go a little bit higher. I feel like in order to do so, we need to see the rest of the world come higher as well. And right now I would say that upwards movement is going to have to come out of Europe, where again, prices are still at $1.22 to $1.25.

00;08;27;25 – 00;08;45;10

Awesome. Well, John, as usual we appreciate all the insight on the global dairy trade. Our next auction together is going to be in two weeks, the middle of November. So we will be back with some more insight on the global dairy trade at that time. But until then, we appreciate it. Everyone tuning in and listening. John, we appreciate your insight as always.

00;08;45;11 – 00;08;49;10

Until next time everyone, have a great week! Even better weekends. We’ll see you in two weeks.

The following music was used for this media project:

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Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29

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© Ever.Ag 2023, confidential and proprietary.

This episode is also available on the following
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—–Spotify—–

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The post GDT Review with Jon Spainhour – November 5, 2024 appeared first on .

View the video version of this episode here.

In The Grain Feed, Jim Matthews is joined by a rotating cast of analysts to discuss what dairy and livestock producers can be doing to manage their risk. This week, Jim is joined by Jake Kingsley and Phil Plourd.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
© Ever.Ag 2024, confidential and proprietary.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The post The Grain Feed – October 31, 2024 (Audio Only) appeared first on .

In the latest edition of the Parlor to Plate dairy podcast from Ever.Ag Insights, our all-star panel delves into what’s spooking markets. Is EU pricing likely to trick US markets into rising? How might US elections treat export demand? Is avian influenza still frightening dairy prices? 

Join host Kathleen Wolfley and panelists Brian Fletcher, Zach Bowers and Brandon Weigel for a spirited discussion.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;16 – 00;00;29;07

Hello and welcome to Tricks or Treats. Oops! I mean Parlor to Play, a weekly podcast from Everyday Insights dedicated to offering listeners enlightening discussion and actionable intelligence about dairy markets. I’m your host, Kathleen Wolf Lee. We are excited to have you along. And if you like what you hear, please like us! Subscribe and tell a friend or two to timestamp today’s recording.

00;00;29;07 – 00;00;55;22

It is Halloween Eve, Wednesday, October 30th, a little after one central time. Here is a quick rundown in the market. See Me Black Cheddar closed at $1.89, down $0.03 on the week earnings finish at $1.93, up $0.02. Spot butter finished at 271, up a nickel, and the nonfat dry milk market closed at $1.39, up $0.03. And now for the grain market December corn is trading around 411 per bushel.

00;00;55;22 – 00;01;17;21

January soybeans at 989 per bushel. And the December soybean meal contract is trading around 301 per ton. It’s a new week, and another star studded panel from the ever AG Financial services team. From our producer group, we have Zach Bowers on the feed side, we have Brandon Weigel, and from our commercial division, we have Brian Fletch Fletcher. Team got a big question for you.

00;01;17;22 – 00;01;19;05

What are we doing for Halloween?

00;01;19;05 – 00;01;31;06

I think mine’s a little more predictable than Zach. I got one party on Friday. That’s about it that I’m going to. You going to be a milkman, though? Ooh, wife is pregnant. She’s going to be cow. So there you go. How about you, Brandon?

00;01;31;07 – 00;01;46;29

Well, we’re, doing a little bit of a costume party here in the office tomorrow, so plan is. And I don’t know if this is going to be a well sought after or not, but it’s a partner costume party, so my partner and I are going to be dumb and dumber. The old suit jacket, the orange ones. The blue ones.

00;01;46;29 – 00;01;47;26

I think it’ll be fun.

00;01;47;29 – 00;01;50;18

I was gonna say, Brandon, are you dumb or are you dumber?

00;01;50;19 – 00;01;51;14

Do to be determined.

00;01;51;18 – 00;02;03;19

I don’t know here. I won’t yell it as my three year old has been yelling it. He’s going to be rumble on the double. And I have one ladybug. Because you know, why wouldn’t you use a hand-me-down ladybug costume for a nine month old?

00;02;03;19 – 00;02;05;01

That’s fair. Nice.

00;02;05;01 – 00;02;10;16

I’m supposed to be writer, but I don’t know how I’m going to come up. The writer from Bob patrol costume.

00;02;10;16 – 00;02;24;00

Sounds like we’re on the same wavelength. Kathleen, my three year old, is going to be writer, believe it or not. And my one year old is going to be the Tin Man. That was my Tin Man costume when I was one year old, so oh.

00;02;24;00 – 00;02;24;28

My gosh, we’re.

00;02;24;28 – 00;02;30;22

Starting to recycle quite a bit. I still need to figure out what I’m going to be, but I’ll definitely be trick or treating tomorrow.

00;02;30;22 – 00;02;50;29

Well, I hope everybody has their candy already, but I know at the grocery store last week when I went, candy was pretty tough to find unless you wanted Christmas candy. But anyway, Tim, as it is Halloween and as is tradition, I’m curious what’s spooky in the markets to you? Brandon, let’s start with you on the grain side. What’s spooky in feed?

00;02;51;03 – 00;03;13;09

So spooky. And feed. I would say an hot topic on everyone’s plate. We know with the end of October comes a big week next week with the election, right? There’s a lot of differing opinions around how election results can change export demand. Specifically, as we look at volumes these last few weeks, both corn and soybean meal export volumes have been very strong.

00;03;13;09 – 00;03;34;20

If we look at corn specifically, we’ve just come off the 13th largest single weekly corn export volume ever. So there’s a lot of question marks as to around if those volumes will be maintained as we work our way into the middle of November and the end of the year. I think offhand, you would say probably not. The volumes that we’ve seen thus far are probably not sustainable.

00;03;34;20 – 00;03;56;10

I think we’re seeing a lot of pre-election buying in case there are any policy changes or tariff implications as we work our way to 2025, and you’re seeing some opportunistic buying from places like Mexico, because there is a lot of corn that is piling up in the Midwest. That has to be moved. A lot of these terminals and elevators are running out of storage space in basis values are at seasonal lows.

00;03;56;10 – 00;04;16;00

So it’s an opportunistic buy for Mexico. I would say that the big question mark there is how does a decrease in export volume lead to changes in prices? Because so far corn has been very stagnant. We have been stuck in this sideways 4 to 420 range. Big spook is does corn break $4? Finally, if we see some of this export volume dry up.

00;04;16;01 – 00;04;35;11

Your comment around Mexico got me thinking about some commentary we saw out of the president, Claudia Sheinbaum, earlier this week or late last week around basically trying to rebuild some self-sufficiency within Mexico’s supply chain, particularly as it relates to corn. Do you think that that’s potentially something a little spooky in the US corn market or for U.S. corn sellers?

00;04;35;11 – 00;04;53;18

I think it could be, but I don’t think it’s much of an event here in the near term. You know, for them to change some of the programs and change some of the policies that they have, it likely take several years. It’s one of those things that’s easier said than done. They are very reliant on US imports, specifically on the corn side of things.

00;04;53;18 – 00;05;00;19

They are our largest corn importer. So I don’t think that’s anything that really spooks the market or changes things here for the next few years.

00;05;00;20 – 00;05;18;29

I mean, I think the whole market is spooky from a dairy man’s perspective. The high prices that we saw the last couple months was clearly supply driven, right? Not so much demand. I mean, demand was good throughout with exports and you could say domestic demand was okay. Nobody was ever excited about it. Nobody said it was awful. But none of that has really changed.

00;05;18;29 – 00;05;40;11

On the demand perspective. We’re in what should seasonally be probably our highest demand season as we buckle up and order product for holiday season. And in that, we’ve obviously seen a large sell off from the cheese side and from the butter side too. Right? Supply side has fixed a lot of the issues that they had over those summer months, which was heat and bird flu throughout many states.

00;05;40;11 – 00;05;59;24

We still are seeing the bird flu issue in California, but I don’t believe that to be the biggest issue as some people talk about it or say it is, especially being we saw a record number of spot loads trade at what some would say was maybe their peak supply issue for butter. That was right. So to me, I just it’s hard for me to make a story that says we can go higher from here.

00;05;59;24 – 00;06;16;16

I don’t think because supply side still has its issues of, you know, we’ve been down. Last milk report was up, but prior to that you had over a year of down on milk production. We have the heifer issue. The replacements aren’t there. That’s all. Probably putting a higher floor on this thing. But $20 milk to me doesn’t seem sustainable.

00;06;16;16 – 00;06;31;22

You’ve got new cheese plant taking milk last week. You’ve got a couple more cheese plants in the next 3 to 4 months firing up as well. So the cheese story is hard to make a bull case for, in my opinion. And then the fact that, you know, we had this bird flu in California and that’s going to short the class for market.

00;06;31;22 – 00;06;43;15

Meanwhile we see butter you know, break 30 $0.40 on you know, record volume doesn’t really bode well for me either. Right. So to me 2025 is held in there. Well take advantage of it because this market is spooky.

00;06;43;15 – 00;06;45;09

All right. How about on the commercial side.

00;06;45;09 – 00;07;08;26

Well I tend to agree with a lot of what Zach is saying with more finished goods coming to the US market, components being very strong, a lot of milk supply in some parts of the country, it looks as though growth is on the horizon. But what I would say the part that is a little bit unnerving on the commercial side is continue to be focused around the EU marketplace.

00;07;08;26 – 00;07;35;14

And if you were to look at dairy product pricing in EU, relatively US, the US is trading at a lower price tier, while the EU prices have come off the highs they’ve been, the rate of decline is slowed and in some cases we’ve seen forward prices actually increase. Example being over the course of last week we are seeing some over the counter trades for EU cheese in the 202 to 203 area.

00;07;35;14 – 00;08;00;13

For Q Q1, we’re seeing similar type product trade in the 208 to 210 area. Now, if you’re to compare each of those relative to the US, Q one trades, the US is trading lower. And what that means is it’s not a huge margin difference. It’s about $0.15 give or take. But it does put the US at a lower price tier, which should put them at the forefront of gaining export traction.

00;08;00;13 – 00;08;26;02

So it is one of those things that if you were to say, what would change that? I think the general opinion would be EU market pricing is still high. And the general thought, I would say is that their prices would continue to come down. We just haven’t seen that the last, say, 5 to 10 days. So if for whatever reason they continue to consolidate or even move higher, then I would say that probably continues to raise the floor of US pricing.

00;08;26;02 – 00;08;51;24

So we’ll be closely monitoring that moving forward. With that said, Zach was really highlighting a lot of US centric elements that can override that, at least in the short term. It does feel like the prospect of U.S. cheese production growing at near historic rate is we are beginning that ascent, you know, looking back in other periods of time when we have grown new capacity, we have mixed results.

00;08;51;24 – 00;09;09;06

But I would say our most recent example of that is the first half of this year and the first half of this year. We were from a cheese perspective. We were trading anywhere from 140 to 150 as new production was coming online. And I think that’s in a lot of people’s minds of what new production can do.

00;09;09;06 – 00;09;36;23

So I would say that my spooky thing that I’ve been watching is domestic demand. To piggyback on what you guys were saying, domestic demand has not been all that exciting for the last several months, and not all that exciting going into the holiday season. And with these new plants coming online, if we don’t have domestic demand and exports, firing on all cylinders or at least running pretty hard, seems likely that we could find ourselves in an oversupply situation.

00;09;36;24 – 00;09;40;13

I think that, from a producer perspective, should definitely be in the spooky camp.

00;09;40;16 – 00;09;58;15

Yeah, it feels like our reliance on exports is only going to grow, and if we’re not at a severe price advantage, then it puts a heavier weight on domestic production. And all the data that we’ve seen recently has suggested that domestic consumption is not growing very fast.

00;09;58;15 – 00;10;15;19

Yeah, for sure. And people are continuing to lean on value of a show me some limited time offers, show me some promotional activity, and maybe I’ll pick up a couple extra bricks, a cheese, or take the family out for dinner to take advantage of that value. But in any case, a huge thank you to the team for joining me today and sharing your insights with our listeners.

00;10;15;19 – 00;10;30;16

As always, thank you to our media team for mixing and mastering. And thank you to you, the listeners, for joining us today. If you like what you hear, subscribe on your favorite app. And if you’d like to learn more about how we help people manage risk, contact us at insights at Ever.ag.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The following music was used for this media project:

Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd

Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29

License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license

Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod

© Ever.Ag 2023, confidential and proprietary.

The post Parlor to Plate – October 30, 2024 appeared first on .

In the latest edition of the Hog Talk podcast from Ever.Ag Insights, we introduce Dr. Lee Schulz, livestock expert and Ever.Ag’s new chief economist. Learn more about Dr. Schulz’s background, the topics he’ll tackle at Ever.Ag, and what data point he considers the most important in livestock markets.

Tune in now!

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;22 – 00;00;31;15

Hello and welcome to Hog Talk, brought to you by Ever AG Insights. On this podcast, we talk with subject matter experts on news and topics affecting the swine industry and hog market. I’m your host, Phil Plaut. Before we get started today, just a quick market recap. As of yesterday, Thursday, October 24th, nearby lean hog futures were at 7865 for 108, up about 1% from last week.

00;00;31;15 – 00;01;00;06

The cutout came in at 9815 for one week, up about 2%. So a little bit of an upturn in the markets today. It’s our privilege to have doctor Lee Schulz with us. So the last time on Hog Talk we featured a conversation with Doctor Steven Meyer. Doctor Meyer leaving the fold after a distinguished career, a legend in the livestock economist circles and now is being replaced if there is such a thing by doctor Lee Schulz to make his own bold steps towards a legendary career.

00;01;00;07 – 00;01;03;17

Doctor Schulz, glad to have you on the team. Glad to have you with us on Hog Talk.

00;01;03;22 – 00;01;05;08

Thank you. So glad to be here.

00;01;05;09 – 00;01;10;07

So let’s get start with this. You were working in Ames. What’s your background? How’d you get here?

00;01;10;13 – 00;01;29;28

I think first and foremost really replaces not the right word. Right. I think it’s following Doctor Meyer. Legendary, storied career. And really honored to follow in his footsteps. Right. And try to chart my own path. A little bit of my background. And reflecting on this a little bit. I actually have a background, so I ran in the industry here for a while.

00;01;29;28 – 00;01;48;05

It is a bit of a pivot for me, so I’ll maybe go back a little bit. I grew up in Central Johnson, not that far from where you’re at. Fell really like many farm kids, you know, grew up and show livestock, showed cattle at county fairs, was involved in forage and as I say, and really, that spurred my interest in agriculture.

00;01;48;05 – 00;02;10;24

I decided to go to the University of Wisconsin River falls and study agricultural business that further really grew that passion for for agriculture. And towards the end of my time there, I had the opportunity to do some undergraduate research. Before then, I had really thought that research you needed a white lab coat to do, right? So that really helped provide me kind of of interest of what livestock marketing and research could be.

00;02;10;24 – 00;02;51;24

And I parlayed that into a master’s degree at Michigan State University. And that further really stirred that passion and then had the opportunity to go to Kansas State University for a PhD in agricultural economics study with many of the legends in livestock marketing there. And then when it came time to graduate, had really the fortune of Doctor Lawrence here at Iowa State University, was transitioning into administration and had the opportunity to take over the livestock marketing specialist and professor in the Department of Economics, where I spent 12 wonderful years having a research program, a teaching program, teaching agriculture, marketing to some of the brightest students here in Iowa and beyond.

00;02;51;24 – 00;03;15;04

And then really, what was the best part of that job was the extension component. So that was working with producers and allied industry on livestock markets, in particular beef cattle and hog markets. And really that provided me a network. And so when there was an opportunity to make this transition to ever Egg and join the team, it was such a natural transition to make the move.

00;03;15;04 – 00;03;30;29

I think I really look at this as providing me an opportunity to take on a new challenge and to really grow my role in the industry of providing economic data and analysis and critical perspectives to producers and livestock. Market participants out there.

00;03;31;02 – 00;03;46;10

So from what I understand, the reputation, if you will, of Kansas State, we get a lot of practical economists out of Kansas State. And I’m guessing that you’re able to apply the extension part of your job at Iowa State. It’s really kind of boots on the ground applying things. It’s a practical dimension to the field of economics. Is that a fair statement?

00;03;46;12 – 00;04;05;09

Very much so. And I think that really is the bread and butter of Kansas State University’s graduate education. It’s really providing the tools to students to go out there in the field and be able to contribute at whatever level that that is. I’ll joke here a bit. I mean, there’s several, you know, important decisions I’ve made in my life.

00;04;05;09 – 00;04;23;01

My wife would argue on the Wisconsin River falls was number one because I met her there. But going to Kansas State University and really the trajectory that that put me on was tremendous. And I think there wasn’t a better place for me to go. That set me up. And so I am so thankful for that opportunity to be at Kansas State and be an alumnus there.

00;04;23;01 – 00;04;27;19

And still be connected to the faculty and staff at Kansas State. So what do you love about.

00;04;27;19 – 00;04;32;10

Livestock markets, Leigh? What about the livestock markets gets you excited, juiced up for your day?

00;04;32;11 – 00;04;48;29

There’s never a dull day and that’s really, you know, all of us that are in the markets. We can say that, right? I mean, because these markets are so dynamic. You know what also I love about it is there’s so many different perspectives. You’ll talk to different analysts or be at different conferences or see a market outlook presentation.

00;04;48;29 – 00;05;13;20

And something’s always new, right? It’s never the same. And so I think that really does provide a challenge for us that are in these livestock markets of continuing to keep up with the latest information and how we distill and analyze and provide that information. But also, I think there’s a role for everyone, right? Depending on your training, your experience, and really, there’s a way for you to carve out your role in these livestock markets.

00;05;13;20 – 00;05;27;01

And then it’s certainly about the people. There’s a real passion in the industry. And you look across the industry, all the participants are very genuine, and I think that makes our job that much easier. And being involved in these livestock markets.

00;05;27;04 – 00;05;48;25

I’m clearly a biased observer. But in the 2 to 3 years that I’ve gotten to know our livestock group in Ames, I just think it’s a remarkable, remarkable collection of team members and an incredibly collaborative spirit towards helping clients. It’s just a special group. And what excites you about your new role in that group? You’ve been, you know, on the morning hog call and do a lot of customer work, customer calls.

00;05;48;25 – 00;05;50;15

What about this new role excites you?

00;05;50;19 – 00;06;11;12

Well, I would say it’s further confirmation of the horsepower and the team that’s in place. And so my experience with the team really dates back to when I got to Iowa State. The team of Joe Kearns and Dave Delaney and others reached out to me and got me to be part of the network, right? That they were involved with, because they are leaders in the industry.

00;06;11;12 – 00;06;27;02

And so that really helped set me up for the position that I’m in now. I kind of was out in front of my skis at that point, right? I probably didn’t belong or deserved to be in a lot of those conversations or a lot of those rooms, but they really provided that opportunity for me. So that’s not lost on me.

00;06;27;02 – 00;06;43;10

And I think now as I think about, you know, I’m a bit in on being part of that team. If I look back to kind of where I started to where I’m at today, I have a place at the table now, certainly continue need to earn that right and continue to kind of show my value. But but that’s really what excites me and the challenge.

00;06;43;10 – 00;07;05;19

Right? So I think when you look at those team members, they’re always challenging you. Right? And I think that’s certainly making you better as a market analyst and an economist. And I think, you know, at the end of the day, I truly believe I can do some good, right? And that’s the public facing part of my role. I think there’s really some good I can do for, you know, the broader livestock markets and broader industry.

00;07;05;19 – 00;07;10;24

And I really hope to continue what I’ve done over the last several years and continue that in this new role.

00;07;10;25 – 00;07;28;20

So just thinking broadly, I like to say that in a very what would be a very unfortunate circumstance, that I had only one graph to look out every day. My graph would be crude oil, because I think it tells you so much about so many different things. So from a hog and cattle market perspective, if you could only look at one thing every day or every week, what would it be?

00;07;28;20 – 00;07;31;01

What’s your favorite indicators on these markets?

00;07;31;06 – 00;07;52;23

So I’m going to cheat here a little bit because I think you left me a little bit of broadness. You know for me it would be looking at USDA livestock mandatory reporting data. I think that really provides us the best real time assessment of these livestock markets. When you look at both from a price and a supply standpoint, that doesn’t mean the data isn’t perfect.

00;07;52;23 – 00;08;15;04

Right? And I think, you know, there’s always room for improvement. And continued discussions of how, you know, Packers report data and USDA publishes that data. But I think as we look back to, you know, that data being over two decades old now and really USDA providing that it is the envy of the world, when we think about marketing data that’s readily available to us as analysts.

00;08;15;04 – 00;08;30;24

And so I would argue, really, that’s kind of my go to when you think about of a place, you know, maybe when you see football coaches on the sidelines, right, they script the first 15 plays that they have. When I look at where I’m looking at the markets every day, certainly that our data is on the top of that list.

00;08;30;25 – 00;08;37;19

As I look at my place, there’s other things that I look at, right. But that’s where my go to from a data analyst standpoint is I.

00;08;37;19 – 00;08;51;29

Heard you say something this morning. I wrote it down. I was so impressed with what you said because it’s true. And I think all ag circles, you said this morning that producers respond to profits and not prices. As we think about the current scene. Let’s start with hogs versus called hog talk. Right, doctor Schultz, let’s start with hogs.

00;08;51;29 – 00;09;05;07

Producers respond to profits, not prices. Where do you see the industry right now? Where the markets are and producer, profitability and producer outlook for the next, let’s say, for the fourth quarter and into 2025? Yeah.

00;09;05;07 – 00;09;25;18

And that’s a great way, I think, to dive into this a little bit. So if we look at hog prices currently, so if we look at 2024 prices, they’re slightly higher than 2023 prices and prices right now are about the seventh highest nominally. So I’m going to use that descriptor here because we’re not going to adjust for inflation.

00;09;25;18 – 00;09;47;26

But if you look at prices seventh highest nominal, you’d say that’s a pretty good economic environment for producers, right? But then when you pair that with the cost situation where 2023 was the highest cost producers ever faced, was the worst economic times that producers also faced with the Iowa State University model from fair to finish production, suggesting they lost about $32 per head.

00;09;47;26 – 00;10;14;15

And that’s even larger than the large losses. You have to go all the way back to 1998. And so there, if you’re purely looking at prices, that really distorts the economic situation for producers. Now 2024, I mentioned prices were a little bit stronger, but we’re still at elevated costs. And so we’re still facing a situation that is pretty close to break even here in 2024 and likely to be somewhat of a replay in 2025.

00;10;14;15 – 00;10;31;23

And so, you know, the phrase producers respond to profits, not prices. You know, it’s important to keep in the context that it’s not only what they’re selling, but those inputs a lot of times are driving the decisions that they’re making on their operations. And so from a risk management standpoint, I think a lot of times we talk about the output side of things, right.

00;10;31;23 – 00;10;55;27

And the hog side of things here. And certainly that’s critical to manage that side of the business. But also we have this input side of the business that is, I would argue, increasingly important and more difficult to manage because you have the commodity side, right? When you think about hogs, it’s corn and soybean meal, but you have all these other costs, these inflationary costs that have continued to rise, that are more difficult to manage.

00;10;55;27 – 00;11;08;15

Right. And so there we have to think about things, about long term relationships potentially, that may help level out some of the price inflation. Also, you can think about stocking up on inputs to help mitigate some of those large heights that we’ve seen.

00;11;08;16 – 00;11;21;01

Well, Doctor Schultz, there you have it. Your passion comes through for the topic. I think you’re going to fit right in over here. I know we’re all delighted to have you board, and thank you for joining us on hog hock. I doubt this will be your last appearance. So thanks again for joining us.

00;11;21;03 – 00;11;31;19

Thanks for having me. And I can’t be more excited and thankful for this opportunity. So look forward to continued interaction on this horn talk, as well as other avenues that I can play.

00;11;31;20 – 00;11;40;04

All right, if you’ve enjoyed listening to Hot Talk, be sure to tell a friend or to and subscribe to us wherever you listen to your podcasts. Thank you to the Insights Crew for their work on today’s show.

The following music was used for this media project:
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© Ever.Ag 2024, confidential and proprietary.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

EVER.AG INSURANCE SERVICES IS A LICENSED INSURANCE AGENCY AND AN AFFILIATE OF EVER.AG. INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IN THIS WEBSITE IS COMPILED FOR THE CONVENIENCE OF THE USER. INFORMATION IS OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE AND IS FURNISHED WITHOUT RESPONSIBILITY FOR ACCURACY OR CONTENT. MARKET DATA IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME. Ever.Ag is a licensed insurance agency in the following states: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NM, NY, NC, ND, OK, OH, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY.

The post Hog Talk – October 25, 2024 appeared first on .

View the video version of this episode here.

In The Grain Feed, Jim Matthews is joined by a rotating cast of analysts to discuss what dairy and livestock producers can be doing to manage their risk. This week, Jim is joined by Jake Kingsley and Ryan Boschma.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
© Ever.Ag 2024, confidential and proprietary.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The post The Grain Feed – October 24, 2024 (Audio Only) appeared first on .

In the latest edition of the Parlor to Plate dairy podcast from Ever.Ag Insights, our all-star panel delves into market-moving data. What did USDA’s latest Milk Production report mean for dairy prices? How is global output shaping up, and how could exports be impacted? And are export reports moving the needle for grain markets? Our panelists discuss these and much more.

Join host Katie Burgess and panelists Kevin Peterson, Tiffany LaMendola and Mike North for a spirited discussion.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

(Transcript auto-generated)

00;00;00;10 – 00;00;08;14

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;17 – 00;00;31;01

Hello and welcome to Parler to play a weekly podcast from African sites dedicated to offering listeners enlightening discussion and actionable dairy market intelligence. I’m your host, Katie Burgess. We’re very excited to have you along. If you like the show, please subscribe and tell a friend or two. To kick things off, let’s timestamp the episode. It’s about 1030 Central Time on Wednesday, October 23rd.

00;00;31;05 – 00;00;55;15

Here’s the rundown of CME spot markets over the past week. Yesterday, Black Cheddar closed at 189 per pound, down a nickel from last week. Barrels finished at 191 per pound, up $0.02. Butters at 268. That’s up $0.06 on the week. And nonfat dry milk closed at 136 per pound, up a penny. Turning to grains. December corn is at 14 per bushel today, up a dime from last week in November.

00;00;55;15 – 00;01;16;21

Soybeans are at 9.94. That’s up $0.14 from a week ago. Now let’s get to the show. It’s a beautiful day here in Madison, Wisconsin, and there’s plenty of news to report. This week. We started out with a milk production report on Monday. We’ve got some international milk production updates over the past week as well. And there’s some new trade data out of China to help us make sense of what it all means for the dairy market.

00;01;16;22 – 00;01;34;26

Today I’m joined by some fabulous panelists. First, we’ve got Tiffany Lemon Dollar Live from California, where she works with a mix of dairy producers and commercial customers. Next up, Kevin Pietersen, a key player on our Chicago dairy trading desk, and Mike North coming to us from Platteville, Wisconsin. How is everyone doing today?

00;01;34;27 – 00;01;35;18

Doing great.

00;01;35;21 – 00;01;36;18

Fantastic.

00;01;36;20 – 00;01;46;06

So, Tiffany, I’d like to start with you to kick things off. Monday afternoon, we got the latest milk production data from USDA. What did it tell us? And what does it mean for the market?

00;01;46;12 – 00;02;16;18

Yeah, it was a highly anticipated report when it landed. It came in at 1.1% gain year over year for the U.S., and we thought that was the first positive showing that we had seen in some time, except that USDA also threw a pretty big surprise and increased their August figure from -0.1 to a whopping plus 2.4. So it was a second month with gains, and certainly came in a little bit above expectations.

00;02;16;18 – 00;02;26;23

Cow numbers were held steady after a gain in August of, I think about 9000 head. We’re still down 38,000 year over year, but we are narrowing the gap.

00;02;26;25 – 00;02;35;19

So, Tiffany, I know you’re out there in California. You work with a lot of dairy producers. What have you been hearing about avian influenza, and how do you think that’s going to show up in the October report?

00;02;35;20 – 00;02;54;29

Yeah. So California was definitely one of the months that people were anticipating in the number. And certainly that was the first one I looked at. You know, we were not sure that the figures were going to be really apparent in September. We got our first cases here late August, and by the end of September we had about 43 positive tests.

00;02;54;29 – 00;03;16;01

So not nothing. But here we are. You know, as of October 22nd worked 133. So certainly anecdotal reports suggest that our bigger hit may be felt in October. You know, we were coming down also from a very robust August showing. We’re starting to pick up steam during the month of August and had pretty nice weather. And then September came.

00;03;16;01 – 00;03;35;21

So we were down about 2% from the August figure. But flat year over year. Again, I would say though still beating expectations. I mean, I myself was expecting at least a small negative, just given the fact that we also got hit by some very extreme heat in September on top of avian influenza. So that was a better showing again October, we’ll have to see.

00;03;35;21 – 00;03;54;02

But of course some markets and have to wait a month to get that information. It does feel like it could be a bigger number, but at the same time, you know, I think other states that had had it earlier in the year, we continue to see them coming back. And so those other states and with nicer weather on board could fill some of that gap.

00;03;54;02 – 00;04;19;27

And not to mention those September milk checks for dairy producers look pretty nice as well. So I think as we’re heading into 2025, it’s going to be balancing margins are looking really good. How numbers are still down, heifers are still in tight supply. And then, you know, how much does avian influenza weigh on the overall national output? Switching gears a little bit, you know, it’s not only us here in the US that struggling with some illness and dairy cows in Europe as well.

00;04;19;28 – 00;04;40;01

They’ve got bluetongue cases impacting dairy health. Those numbers are on the rise. And it’s hitting cows in some of the biggest milk producing countries Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium not quite as big, but right in there in terms of where the hotspots are in terms of the disease, as we look at the European milk production data, we only have that through August.

00;04;40;01 – 00;05;01;20

But Germany, the biggest milk producer in Europe, was down 5% in August, which pulled the whole E.U. number down to closer to -1.4%. So a big decline there. On the flip side, though, we got new New Zealand milk production data here over the past week as well. That number was really positive, up 4% in September. That’s following an up 9% in the month of August.

00;05;01;20 – 00;05;22;07

And September volume was the highest it’s been since 2020. So I think as we look at the global milk production picture, we’ve got the EU struggling, we’ve got the US transitioning to growth and we’ve got New Zealand on a pretty hot streak. So Kevin, turning to you, I know that a lot of that New Zealand milk or those New Zealand dairy products, a lot of that heads to China.

00;05;22;07 – 00;05;30;00

And we got new Chinese import data this week. That was pretty dismal. Can you give us the latest on the data out of China and what we’re thinking going forward.

00;05;30;02 – 00;05;54;14

00;05;54;14 – 00;06;15;17

00;06;15;18 – 00;06;21;13

00;06;21;13 – 00;06;36;28

And I mean as we watch the GDP data, it seems like they have been buying a bit more the past couple months compared to what they bought this summer. But I think to your point of if that domestic demand isn’t there, some of it’s probably just restocking. And I don’t know that I’ve talked to anyone who really sees signs of strength out of China.

00;06;36;28 – 00;06;42;16

It seems like, oh, just like you said when you were buying the least since 2011, the summer, anything up is up.

00;06;42;16 – 00;06;57;06

00;06;57;06 – 00;07;14;27

And I think that becomes a huge piece of the puzzle as we move into 2025. Yeah. Seeing all the smoke come out of New Zealand, seeing us melt production and proving that China is a big demand player. And so if they remain still on the soft side, that means the US is going to have to compete with New Zealand even more so than it’s been from there.

00;07;14;27 – 00;07;23;26

Mike, I wanted to talk about grains. I mean, China, really important in the dairy space. I know important in the grain space as well. Anything new on the China front that you’re watching on the grain side?

00;07;23;27 – 00;07;45;00

Well, regarding China, we have seen fits and bursts of purchases from them, and the market gets really excited for a moment until it realizes this is the time of the year when transaction must happen. We need to be making a lot of sales this time of year because supplies are readily available. They’re moving down the river system headed towards the Gulf.

00;07;45;00 – 00;08;05;09

And with regard to China, their primary interest is in our soybeans. And so as you look at those sales, kind of like Kevin mentioned before, they’re a little bit relative to the big picture, abysmal. They really don’t stack up to what we would ordinarily see. And that sets the tone for a softer export market slash trade with China going forward.

00;08;05;09 – 00;08;29;19

And then, of course, weigh in on the election and, you know, bring exports back into the equation as it relates to who wins and what’s their trade policy. We don’t know exactly what to expect on the back side. You know, I think you look for something that’s kind of status quo from a Harris presidency. You look for Trump to go back to the table with China to say, hey, you guys didn’t finish phase one, need to finish that.

00;08;29;19 – 00;08;48;01

And oh, by the way, we also agreed on phase two. If we do Fast-Track us into a phase one, phase two agreement that will put a lot more soybean trade back on the table, and that will force beans out of this country at a pace we haven’t seen for years, a little bit now, but that could change politically if inspired by Trump.

00;08;48;01 – 00;09;08;03

But ultimately, as you look at the green side, we’re going through harvest, which continues to impress. There are some bad spots, but overall, USDA, again, in their last adjustment to this point in man, numbers raised yield on corn by 2/10 of a bushel and lowered soybean yield by one tenth of a bushel. Those are both record yields, corn and beans alike.

00;09;08;03 – 00;09;21;19

So balance sheets going to end up with roughly 2 billion bushels of corn, 500 billion plus on beans. Those are big numbers relative to what we’ve gotten accustomed to in recent years, which should keep grain prices softer as we march into the winter.

00;09;21;21 – 00;09;31;22

For sure, it’s a busy time of year. And to your point, we’re less than two weeks away from the election now, so I’m guessing there’s bound to be some volatility in the weeks ahead. You know, depending on which way that goes.

00;09;31;23 – 00;09;37;28

Absolutely. In my mailbox. Will be glad to see the end of the election. That just doesn’t have any room left for any more fliers.

00;09;37;28 – 00;10;00;12

I agree with you there. Living in a swing state. All right, well, that’s it for today’s show. Big thanks to our panelists Tiffany, Kevin and Mike. Appreciate you joining us today. A big thanks to you, the listeners and the insights team for your production support. If you like the show, please hit subscribe. And if you’d like to learn more about how we help customers manage risk, please contact us at insights at Ever AG.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The following music was used for this media project:

Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd

Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29

License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license

Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod

© Ever.Ag 2023, confidential and proprietary.

The post Parlor to Plate – October 23, 2024 appeared first on .

View the video version of this episode here.

In The Grain Feed, Jim Matthews is joined by a rotating cast of analysts to discuss what dairy and livestock producers can be doing to manage their risk. This week, Jim is joined by Jake Kingsley and Verl Prather.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-intro-29
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
© Ever.Ag 2024, confidential and proprietary.

Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

The post The Grain Feed – October 17, 2024 (Audio Only) appeared first on .