In our weekly series From the Furrow, host Mike McGinnis and fellow grain geeks shed light on current market conditions and how grain producers can take action to manage their risk.

This week, Mike is joined Iowa farmer Shane Vogler and Nebraska farmer Bonnie Hatch for a special report from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. What are scouts seeing on the tour? How might tour reports affect producers’ crop-selling decisions heading into harvest? Mike, Shane and Bonnie discuss those topics and a whole lot more.

Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to hear us discuss? Contact us at [email protected].

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00;00;00;13 – 00;00;17;06

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00;00;17;08 – 00;00;37;16

Hello and welcome to From the Furrow, brought to you by Ever Again sites. Each week we talk with subject matter experts on news and topics affecting grain markets. I’m your host, Mike McGinnis, and today is Wednesday, August 21st, 2024. And our guest today, Shane Vogler, who’s an Iowa farmer and also a Bonnie Hatch, a crop scout here on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour from Colorado.

00;00;37;16 – 00;01;01;28

She grew up in Minnesota, so she has a unique perspective on the parts of the country that may see some of the most damage. But currently traveling through northwest Iowa on the pro Farmer Crop Tour. This is day three on August 21st and we are expecting to see some tough crops. This is where most of the flooding occurred in northwest Iowa, southeast South Dakota, and also southwest Minnesota.

00;01;01;28 – 00;01;17;24

First off, Jane, welcome to the program. Thank you. We’re going to talk a little bit about where you’re from and what your crops look like so far. Right now I’m from trailer, Iowa, about 30 miles south of Waterloo. Our crops look really good. We had a little bit of dryness in the spring, but otherwise we’ve been getting ample amount of rain.

00;01;17;26 – 00;01;37;07

Now you’ve been on the crop tour for two years. This is your third year. And can you give us your perspective on what you’ve seen so far? Just for the audience. We started out in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, traveled to Nebraska. Now in Iowa. But the car that you’ve been traveling in and some of the samples you’ve pulled, what have you seen over the tour so far?

00;01;37;07 – 00;01;55;29

I think the yields have surprised me a little better than average counselor, probably up a little bit in my areas that I’ve scouted for in probably averaging 183 through Nebraska. The other thing that seems to be the and talked about right now on the tour with a lot of the scouts is whether this crop, some of it can finish before the frost hits.

00;01;55;29 – 00;02;13;06

Have you seen that or you concerned about that? For some of these farmers in this area of Nebraska, we found a few fields that it could be iffy. It really could be, you know, up here in northwest Iowa, what we’re seeing so far, I think this is either a fourth or fifth stop for the day. I’m really worried about the beans even being able to finish the corn.

00;02;13;06 – 00;02;30;18

We found one field corn. It looks like it’ll finish easy enough, but there’s been to at least that. It’s going to be tough to finish up up here. And also the other thing coming into this crop year, there was, you know, high expectations of a really nice crop, I think mainly driven by the USDA’s higher yield estimates in August.

00;02;30;18 – 00;02;48;22

What was your expectation and has it met that? Yeah, actually I think it’s met it. I mean, up here, it’s surprising how good the crop is in here in northwest Iowa through Nebraska. If you look back, I look back over the records over the last three years, and it’s actually better than average, you know, but I don’t think the USDA, I think they’ve pushed it way too far.

00;02;48;25 – 00;03;08;03

And it is something to note that with this crop tour, it’s best to just compare what the yields are in the districts that you’re touring through this year with the previous years. Right? Yeah. You don’t want to just take it, throw them all together. But the several different districts I’ve been through, it has been above average, but not what the USDA is talking now.

00;03;08;08 – 00;03;22;05

A lot of farmers on this crop tour, Shane, and I know that you have your own things to worry about with your own operation. As far as grain marketing and what’s going to happen with what, you know, decisions you have to make as far as new crop coming out of the field in 30 days or 60 days, whatever.

00;03;22;05 – 00;03;44;00

But what are your thoughts and what are you hearing from other farmers regarding the big supply that we have and possibly another big crop coming on talking to several farmers on the tour, everybody’s getting discouraged. We’re going to be seeing lower grain markets. And then this I really believe with the numbers that we heard out in, you had Ohio in the big, big number that a couple of the farmers from Illinois are talking out there, that they think it’s going to be out there.

00;03;44;00 – 00;03;58;29

I think we’re going to be in trouble. I think we’re going to be in a world of hurt. And what about your decision making for next year? When do you start thinking about what are you going to be planting for the next year, or is this something that’s too far out? No, I’ve already started looking for fertilizer in what I think is a better price.

00;03;58;29 – 00;04;20;01

And here in another month and a half, we’ll start booking seed in two. Are you making any decisions on which way you’re leaning, or do you stay with the regular 5050 crop rotation? We try to stay with the 5050 crop rotation, but it might look better to maybe plant more corn this year. Many reasons why. Just because prices are so low, they’re getting down below $10.

00;04;20;01 – 00;04;35;09

Takes a lot of beans to make that up. Let’s turn our attention to Bonnie Hatch. She is the driver for the car that I’m in today, so I’m thankful for her driving. And, she’s been on the crop tour here. A number of years. Bonnie, you’re from Minnesota, so you’re kind of the farm girl here in the car today.

00;04;35;09 – 00;04;43;05

Currently living in Colorado, just for our listeners. But give us a feel for what you have seen and what you’re hearing from others and other crop scouts. You’re on this year’s tour.

00;04;43;10 – 00;05;07;22

In comparison to previous years, I would say the corn looks better than what I’ve seen in the last two years. There are places in like south east, south central Nebraska that the dry corn looked like it was burning up. But you get out into that field and it had decent yields. Beans look really nice. There’s a lot of Japanese beetles in Nebraska, and we’re seeing a lot of aphids in Iowa.

00;05;07;22 – 00;05;10;06

But the health of the beans looks good. But yeah, they’re young.

00;05;10;11 – 00;05;17;18

And what about your expectation coming into this crop as far as what the crop was supposed to look like and what so far it’s been looking like?

00;05;17;20 – 00;05;26;16

I’m surprised at how good it does look based upon the amount of water and the moisture that people have been getting in the Midwest. I’m surprised by how good it is.

00;05;26;18 – 00;05;44;23

We’re also with a lot of farmers, but some agronomists and others that are, you know, grain analysts and grain marketers on this tour and a multitude of folks. But some of the people that you’ve talked to, Bonnie, what are some of the comments or conversations that you’ve had about this year’s crop or the current state of price, or do you stay away from those conversations?

00;05;44;24 – 00;05;46;29

I steer clear of those. Yeah, I’m out of that one.

00;05;47;03 – 00;05;54;24

Your experience on this crop tour is one where you get to meet a lot of different people, you know? And that’s what I’m really trying to get us. Your experience of being on the.

00;05;54;24 – 00;06;15;03

Tour, it’s really cool to me. There’s a lot of people from other countries, so I’ve had riders from Brazil and Argentina, and it’s been really interesting to hear about farming in their countries and hear it firsthand from the farmers that farm in those countries. They have gigantic fields. They use horses when they work cattle, they’re not attached to their four wheelers.

00;06;15;03 – 00;06;17;23

It’s just a whole different lifestyle.

00;06;17;26 – 00;06;37;18

Thanks again for being with us today. Thank you, Monty Hatch and also Shane, thank you for your time. Thank you. Jane Vogler, an Iowa farmer with us here on today’s From the Furrow and from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour 2024. And thank you for listening to From the Furrow. If you’ve enjoyed listening to the program, be sure to tell a friend or to and subscribe to us wherever you’re listening to your podcast.

00;06;37;19 – 00;06;41;14

Thank you to the Insights Crew for their work on today’s show.

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