Global Data Pod

While rate decisions look relatively well signaled at next week’s G3 meetings, forward guidance is in flux. The Fed’s pause will be hawkish and likely accompanied by a rise in the dots to show an additional hike this year. The ECB is likely to eschew strong guidance, keeping uncertainty high about where they will pause. We expect the BoJ to adjust its YCC band but signal that the start of rate normalization is not near.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Nicolaie Alexandru and Katherine Marney to discuss vulnerabilities of the EM Edge economies to higher interest rates, slower growth and lower oil prices.

Amid higher global interest rates, several EM Edge economies have lost market access and have turned to multilateral funding. Tighter funding is coming against the backdrop of wide fiscal deficits, larger debt stocks and lower reserves stocks. Declining oil prices also offer mixed benefits to the EM Edge group as global growth moderates. Against this backdrop, efforts to improve debt sustainability have become even more pressing.

Speakers:

Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research

Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Katherine Marney, EM, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on June 8, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4426761-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428035-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4420830-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers:

Joseph Lupton, Senior Global Economist

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on June 5, 2023.  

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4429734-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428335-0,  and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4405286-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

From downside risks in the US and upside risks in Europe and China just a few months ago, we now are seeing fading tail risks in the US (banks stress and debt ceiling) and improving data pointing to upside risks while recent data have taken out the upside in Europe and China. Although we still see the Fed pausing this month, the bias to hike will remain.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers:

Michael Feroli

Samantha Azzarello

This podcast was recorded on date.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Although zero-COVID and its removal have been dominant drivers of China growth over the past year, the outlook hinges on a recovery in business sentiment which has been depressed by a housing correction and a set of government policies which had generated private sector uncertainty. We expect those drags to gradually fade, and the recovery in business spending from depressed levels should be an important source of China growth. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Jahangir Aziz 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

With the full set of April CPI releases to hand, Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook.

Speakers:

Nora Szentivanyi

Michael Hanson 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi, Sajjid Chinoy and Sonja Keller discuss EM’s debt dynamics and why boosting GDP growth is so crucial to achieving post-pandemic debt sustainability. While some of the pandemic surge in EM debt ratios has been pared back in last two years, reducing them further will be much more challenging in an environment of slowing nominal GDP growth and rising interest rates. 

 

This podcast was recorded on May 24, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at  

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395071-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4326109-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4402859-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4263350-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We downgrade our current quarter forecast for China and recognize the looming risks associated with extending the US debt ceiling. But the overall message from the global economy is one of still solid growth amidst early signs that a weak manufacturing sector is poised to recover. The Fed and other central banks are inclined to pause but we would resist describing these moves as the end of the tightening cycle.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week’s news of tightening US bank lending standards and a sharp rise in unemployment insurance claims fuels worries about an impending recession. However, beneath the surface, there are reasons to fade the downsides somewhat. More importantly, April activity data are shaping up for a solid bounce after softness late last quarter—echoing the global survey data and US payrolls report already in hand. While we still see recession taking hold eventually, we also maintain our call that its not going to come in the next few months.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.