Global Data Pod

Sin Beng Ong and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the near-term and longer-term prospects for Asia’s tech-sector. Following the sharp deceleration in tech-related output since 2Q22, a lift in production is evident, led by Korea and now Taiwan. With rising global demand for semiconductors driven increasingly by sector-specific and idiosyncratic forces, the tech cycle could become less synchronized with the broader industrial cycle. Over time, it could thus loose some of its bellwether properties for the global manufacturing sector. Beyond the near-term lift, rising tensions between the US and China also bear watching. Some of this shift is already evident in the decline in tech exports from Korea and Taiwan to China but also evident in the material reduction in the share of Asia ex. Japan in global semiconductor shipments for the first time since 1986. Given recent industrial policies in both the US and Europe, this shift could continue to proceed rapidly.

This podcast was recorded on August 17, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4454969-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4476425-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Recent weeks have trimmed downside growth risks and upside inflation risks. This constructive alignment of data leads us to entertain the Goldilocks scenario. Next week’s growth data should help support the growth part of the story. But there is enough inflation still out there to question whether we settle above central bank comfort zones.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this episode of the Global Data Pod: Research Rap, Joe Lupton and Bruce Kasman discuss a recently released research note assessing the global spillover effects from this year’s positive (US) and negative (Euro area and China) growth shocks.

We quantify the historical impact of regional shocks filtered through the lens of GDP, our nowcasters (NRI), and our Forecast Revision Indexes (FRI). The results confirm that GDP shocks emanating from Europe and China have less of an impact on the global economy overall than those from the US. This owes in part to the powerful spillover of US to global financial conditions. As financial conditions are currently reinforcing the message that US shocks dominate, we expect the recently upward revised and more resilient US economy to set the tone for the global economy even as Western Europe and China are expected to continue to deliver sub-par growth.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 8 August 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483519-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Latin America economists Cassiana Fernandez, Gabriel Lozano and Diego Pereira join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the region’s easing cycles that kicked off with bolder-than-expected rate cuts. While risks of more front-loaded easing, especially in Brazil, have risen, there are important divergence across the region. Mexico’s business cycle and policy response vis-à-vis other major LatAm countries in particular remains striking and overheating concerns point to renewed risks of a later start of the easing cycle. In all, despite significant disinflation and rate cuts priced in by markets, we see LatAm’s monetary policy stances remaining restrictive through next year. Much will depend on the sustainability of the disinflation process, fiscal policy responses to the economic slowdown as well as global developments.

This podcast was recorded on 8 August 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4480901-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483381-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4452217-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4462810-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483346-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The July data releases reinforce our conviction that the global expansion has more life. The global all-industry PMI remains at a level consistent with trend-like growth while the US payroll report shows ongoing solid job gains. The momentum loss in both, however, is a reminder that growth paths are rarely smooth. Even if the near-term threats are fading, resilience in growth along with tight labor markets and inflation above central bank comfort zones keeps an observational equivalence between our “Boil the Frog” and “Goldilocks” scenarios.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers:

Michael Feroli

Samantha Azzarello

This podcast was recorded on 4 August 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Mike Hanson is joined by EM economists Sajjid Chinoy, Vinicius Moreira and Katherine Marney to discuss the rising probability of a strong El Niño, which could push up global inflation, especially through food this year and into the next. The inflationary effect could be amplified through rising commodity prices. While El Niño thinks globally, its effects tend to be quite localized, with the most pronounced impacts in Latin America and parts of Asia. But the impacts have varied by episode, and the starting points for crops and energy look good this cycle.

Speakers:

Michael Hanson

Katherine Marney

Vinicius Moreira

Sajjid Chinoy

This podcast was recorded on August 2, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461348-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4469697-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4463428-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for i,,mportant disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

A week of data that trims both downside risks on growth and upside risks on inflation are giving a bid to Goldilocks. As we noted in recent weeks, don’t fight the cyclical sweet spot we are entering. While Europe is the weak link, the US stands out this week with strong 2Q GDP and solid consumer spending in June. The Fed and ECB hike but turn data dependent, while the BoJ loosened its YCC.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping our views. In  this month’s edition we highlight  our recent research on the likely impact from El Niño and our forecast for US core inflation to prove sticky around 3%. 

Speakers

Michael Hanson, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4469084-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461348-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4454302-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

There is much to debate about whether global expansion will come to an end around the turn of the year, later next year, or even later (Goldilocks). Regardless, the near-term picture is looking more resilient and if so, a turn back up in the goods sector should help offset some moderation in service sector. Next week’s flash July PMIs will be key to watch, as will be the guidance coming out of the Fed, ECB, and BoJ.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.