Sin Beng Ong and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the near-term and longer-term prospects for Asia’s tech-sector. Following the sharp deceleration in tech-related output since 2Q22, a lift in production is evident, led by Korea and now Taiwan. With rising global demand for semiconductors driven increasingly by sector-specific and idiosyncratic forces, the tech cycle could become less synchronized with the broader industrial cycle. Over time, it could thus loose some of its bellwether properties for the global manufacturing sector. Beyond the near-term lift, rising tensions between the US and China also bear watching. Some of this shift is already evident in the decline in tech exports from Korea and Taiwan to China but also evident in the material reduction in the share of Asia ex. Japan in global semiconductor shipments for the first time since 1986. Given recent industrial policies in both the US and Europe, this shift could continue to proceed rapidly.

This podcast was recorded on August 17, 2023.

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