Global Data Pod

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton, Malcolm Barr, and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss our recent forecast revisions which sees Western Europe sliding into recession during 2H22.

 

Speakers

Bruce Kasman, Economic and Policy Research

Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research

Malcolm Barr, Economic and Policy Research

Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Economic and Policy Research

 

This podcast was recorded on July 27, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4155520-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Further evidence of a loss in growth momentum in the US and Western Europe reinforces the message that recession risks are elevated. Central banks continue to hike rate and we look for an additional 75bp move from the Fed next week. However, there will likely be a greater sensitivity to both sides of the risk distribution as policy rates reach neutral levels and as labor markets weaken.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this podcast we review how our economic outlook for Latin America has evolved as we pass the midpoint of 2022.  While we remain wary of challenges related to high inflation, tightening monetary policy, and significant political and electoral uncertainty, the slowdown in growth we expect has been pushed back, helped in part by terms of trade gains. However, the risks around global recession also put downside risk to our LatAm outlook, even raising the specter of financial stability concerns in some parts of the region.

Speakers:

Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

Cassiana Fernandez, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Gabriel Lozano, EM, Economics Research

Diego Pereira, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on July 19, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4124443-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4148037-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

More inflation in the US puts more stress on consumers and on the Fed. China hole gets bigger but so too does the rebound. On net, we leave the week seeing risks of recession largely unchanged: under 50% but not much. Anxiety builds ahead of an expected restart of Russian gas flows to Europe next Thursday, while next Friday’s flash PMIs to flag further momentum loss.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on July 15, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Behind welcomed resilience, the data flow of late reveals a vulnerable global expansion at midyear. While strong US June payrolls should disabuse those thinking the US is already in recession, it raises concerns about long it can last given soft GDP growth and the resulting drag on profits. Similarly, a strong global PMI report for June masks underlying momentum loss excluding a robust reopening bounce in China. 

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

After a weak first-half, unrelenting adverse shocks look set to reduce global GDP growth in the second half to remain below trend. The data flow this week—from disappointing news on the US consumer to a grim PMI report on global industry—underscore that momentum loss at midyear. With the bar on growth lowered, the next rung for downside risks to flag is a global recession. Short of this materializing, the Fed is likely to stay the course until reaching 3% on rates before turning somewhat more growth-sensitive.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In the wake of impressive resilience through 1H22, the global expansion looks increasingly brittle at midyear. While activity data from Asia show an encouraging bounce back from earlier pandemic drags, relentless inflation headwinds threaten to break the back of the consumer in the US and Europe. Confidence has dropped to forty year lows in Europe, while US and European flash PMIs took a larger than expected dip in June—with a surprising decline in the service sector PMI belying the strength of the much-anticipated re-opening dynamic. Next week’s inflation and survey readings to further underscore downside risks.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

China is rebounding smartly in May, and spillovers from the downturn remain mild. But inflation is surging everywhere and this is damping growth in the goods sector. The Fed upped its hiking pace to 75bp this week with another likely to come, guiding to a restrictive stance before yearend. In doing so while also now forecasting a rising unemployment rate suggests a singular focus on inflation and less of a growth-put than in the past—at least until inflation moderate.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Arindam and Sin Beng discuss some of the key drivers of the macro narrative in EM Asia for 2H22, which we have coined – on the macro side “Mercury Rising” – and for strategy it’s going “From acute to chronic.”  We talk through some the salient drivers underlying these macroeconomic views and their implications for FX and rates markets.

This podcast was recorded on Jun 16, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4119405-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4121834-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week’s news centered around continued upward inflation pressure and the response from those central banks with still accommodative stances. The ECB made a significant shift this week and now looks likely to hike 125bp before year end. The RBA is also front-loading its rate hikes with the Fed set to deliver a 50bp hike with the promise of more to come. This dynamic is unlikely to change until growth slows materially, a development we now expect for the US during 2H22.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.