In this week’s commentary, industry leaders weigh the tug-of-war between global risks, stubborn inflation, and the Fed’s next moves on rates. Bill points to Europe’s political and economic instability, China’s weakness, and potential U.S. recessionary pressures as the real catalysts for materially lower yields, while Kittle highlights how falling government loan rates are already lifting refi volume and industry morale. Marc adds a blunt critique of the Fed’s “analysis paralysis,” calling for simpler, more decisive action to support the housing market. Together, the discussion underscores how external shocks may matter more than dot plots — and why lenders must prepare for uncertainty on all fronts.