Ambiguity surrounding the precise nature of the "animated" behaviour by Andrew Bayly towards a staffer, which led to his resignation as commerce minister, seeped into the prime minister's media response. Speaking to Mike Hosking, Christopher Luxon danced around the question of whether he would have sacked Bayly had he not quit, then danced around it again, and again, to the audible displeasure of the ZB superstar. Ben Thomas, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Toby Manhire try to get their heads around this double bill of The Thick of It and Clarke & Dawe.

First, however, it's to the Tasman Sea, and the unexpected appearance of a trio of Chinese warships and live-fire exercises that left commercial airlines re-routing. What message was being sent, should it spur New Zealand to boosted defence spending, and how, in the naval wake, would Winston Peters have approached his visit to Beijing? Plus: the proposed reforms to citizen's arrest laws and a step towards a referendum on a four-year term, with one big condition attached.

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The leader of the Act Party has been in plenty of headlines in the last two weeks, ranging from a controversial (and historic) letter written on behalf of constituent Philip Polkinghorne to an attempt to drive a Land Rover up the steps of parliament. Remarkably, he had a pop at an "ill-advised" Christopher Luxon. And that's just scraping the surface; there are the questions around the response to Tim Jago, the teacher-only days, the school lunches. Across the board, he is steadfast in insisting he's erred not even a skerrick. Is it an obduracy born of being a one-man band for so long, or is he going through a Prince Hal phase, getting some stuff out of his system before he becomes the king (or deputy prime minister, at least)? Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire thrash all that out.

Plus: how much alarm are the latest cluster of opinion polls causing for National and Luxon? Does a cavalcade of health issues represent a serious political headache for the government? What should we make of the findings in the much-delayed Manurewa Marae data inquiry? And a word on the Cook Islands, Mark Brown and China.

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The Cook Islands prime minister, Mark Brown, has provoked the wrath of NZ's foreign minister with his decision to head to China to sign a new strategic deal. By failing to consult on the pact, says Winston Peters, the Cook Islands was in breach of commitments made as a member of the New Zealand realm. Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas put on their geopolitical goggles to assess the strain in relations, which comes as the tussle between China and the United States for influence in the Pacific enters a new phase, marked by Donald Trump pursuing an isolationist approach.

Plus: How did Tama Potaka and co perform at Waitangi last week, and did Christopher Luxon come up with some new material for Ngāi Tahu in Akaroa?

Join NZ’s favourite political podcast live in Auckland on 9th April at Q Theatre. Host Toby Manhire will be joined by Annabelle Lee-Mather (Ngāi Tahu, Ngāti Kahungunu, Ngāti Māmoe) (executive producer of The Hui) and Ben Thomas (former press secretary in the Key government) as they boldly step out of the studio and in front of an audience to cast a curious and caustic eye on New Zealand politics. Tickets on sale now at thespinoff.co.nz/events

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A passive protest at the pōwhiri. A prime minister avoiding the Treaty Grounds. A “very interesting” idea about a possible te Tiriti Commissioner. In case you haven’t noticed, it’s been a pretty full on Waitangi week, and The Spinoff’s unofficial Māori unit has been there to witness it all.

Recorded on the sandy shores of the mighty North, guest hosts Liam Ratana and Lyric Waiwiri-Smith (along with regular producer Te Aihe Butler) discuss the problem of David Seymour, Tama Potaka’s messy kūpapa-kaupapa wordplay, the (seemingly undercooked) te Tiriti Commission proposal, and what we’d like to see at Waitangi in 2026.

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The political year kicked off with a dramatic reshuffle that sees Shane Reti removed from health in favour of Simeon Brown, James Meager made minister for the South Island and Nicola Willis in the renamed role of minister for economic growth. Alongside a caucus retreat and a state of the nation speech from prime minister Christopher Luxon, it's all part of an effort to reset the agenda.

Fresh from their own exhausting retreat, Toby Manhire, Ben Thomas and Annabelle Lee-Mather regather to assess that effort, and the background against which it plays: a poll that puts Labour ahead of National and points to pessimism within the electorate, a volatile global context as Trump returns to the White House, a record response to the Treaty Principles Bill as Luxon declines his invitation to Waitangi.

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Gone By Lunchtime is taking a break over summer. We’ll be back soon with new episodes but, until then, here’s one of our favourites from 2024:

In a special crossover edition of Gone By Lunchtime meets Juggernaut, Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas take the stage at a packed Hannah Playhouse in Wellington, joined by NZ broadcasting legend Kim Hill. Exactly 40 years after the 1984 election that saw David Lange and Labour derail the Muldoon train and sweep to power, unleashing a head-spinning period of economic, social and foreign policy reform, we reflect on those giddy times and the ways the Lange-Douglas legacy remains very much alive in 2024.

This event sold out in 48 hours; to get advance access to Spinoff events, join our members programme.

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In this bonus, snackable festive pod, Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire point their goggles at 2025. Which issues will dominate, who will we be keeping an eye on, and just how unhinged are the predictions we're willing to make? Happy new year!

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Twelve months after the coalition government torpedoed the new ferry plan it had inherited, along with a wild cost blowout, from the previous government, a much heralded announcement finally arrived, and it was not the decision were hoping for. What does the latest instalment in the great ferry saga tell us about the state of the coalition, with David Seymour getting tutted by the new minister for rail Winston Peters? What kind of ferries will we end up with? And will they ro-ro or won't they ro-ro? Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire grab the wheel.

Plus: what does a glut of new polls tells us about the state of the government as we approach Christmas, and did Christopher Luxon fail to adhere to his own big rock philosophy in coalition negotiations?

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After an acclaimed maiden speech, the new National MP for Rangitata faces his biggest test in politics yet: chairing the committee hearing Act’s controversial bill. He sits down with Toby Manhire to discuss the hearings ahead, and his own path to politics.

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Normally on The Fold, we discuss events in the wider media, but today, the subject is us and the future of The Spinoff. Published on site today is an open letter from Duncan, The Spinoff’s editor Madeleine Chapman, and its CEO Amber Easby. It toplines where The Spinoff is right now as a platform – this paradoxical place where our audience is the strongest it has ever been, outside of events like Covid or elections – but that the stagnant ad market, and a hard drop in public funding for our work, has left us in a really tricky situation needing to make a very real call for help.

First, Duncan speaks to our editor, Madeleine Chapman, and our head of audience, Anna Rawhiti-Connell about what we’re asking for and why we’re asking for it. Duncan is then joined by Spinoff CEO Amber Easby to dig into some numbers that show just how radically our revenue picture has changed and explain why our audience is now our last, best shot at retaining the ability to carry on doing what we do.

Please take the time to read the open letter at https://thespinoff.co.nz/sos.

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