Hold Your Fire!

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined again by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss Sudan’s war on the eve of its first anniversary. They talk about what’s happening on the battlefield, particularly recent gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which had appeared to have the upper hand. They unpack the humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and aid access restricted by the warring parties as famine looms. They also discuss internal dynamics within Sudan’s Armed Forces, which increasingly rely on Islamist brigades and other armed groups, and the RSF. They examine outside powers’ roles, with Egypt supporting and Iran reportedly selling drones to the army, the United Arab Emirates widely thought to be arming the RSF, and how foreign involvement has evolved. They also discuss the difficulties of getting the warring parties’ leaders to talk even about a ceasefire, let alone a more sustainable end to the fighting, and the difficulties of returning Sudan to a civilian-led post-war transition.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest statement Sudan: A Year of War and our Sudan country page. 

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This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Jerome Drevon, Ibraheem Bahiss and Olga Oliker about the attack on Crocus City Hall in a Moscow suburb claimed by the Islamic State (ISIS), how the group and its affiliates have evolved in recent years and the potential implications of the strike for Russian politics and the war in Ukraine. Richard first talks with Jerome and Ibraheem about what we know about the attack and the involvement of ISIS and the group’s affiliate in Afghanistan, Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP). They discuss how ISIS’s structure has evolved after losing its territory in Iraq and Syria and how much of a global threat it and its affiliates now pose. They also discuss the Taliban’s fight against IS-KP and its relations with outside powers worried about threats emanating from Afghanistan. Richard then talks with Olga about the attacks’ implications for Russia, Moscow’s attempts to link responsibility to Kyiv and what that might mean for the war in Ukraine.

For more in-depth analysis of topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent Q&A ISIS Strikes Moscow, our 2016 report Exploiting Disorder: al-Qaeda and the Islamic State and our Jihad in Modern Conflict page. For more reading on the topic, check out The Exile: The Stunning Inside Story of Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda in Flight by Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s President and CEO, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to talk about a string of recent conferences – in Germany, India and Türkiye – and obstacles to diplomacy aimed at securing peace deals among warring parties. First, they share takeaways from the Munich Security Conference, the Raisina Dialogue in India and Türkiye’s Antalya Diplomacy Forum, the differences in mood in each of the three meetings and what they tell us about global affairs today. Then, they discuss why so few recent conflicts have ended in negotiated settlements, what’s behind the seeming demise of comprehensive peace agreements and what a changing global environment for diplomacy means for efforts to end wars today.

For more of Crisis Group’s in-depth analysis of conflicts around the world, check out our website.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group Haiti expert Diego Da Rin and deputy Latin America and Caribbean director Renata Segura to discuss the latest wave of gang violence engulfing Haiti. They look at the recent attempt by gangs, who already controlled perhaps 80 per cent of the capital Port-au-Prince, to overrun the airport, ports, government buildings and other critical infrastructure and their attacks on jails that freed thousands of inmates. They look at a new pact between previously warring gangs, seemingly motivated by their determination to deter foreign forces arriving, and the aspirations of gang leaders, notably Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier. They talk about the worsening humanitarian crisis, as water, food and fuel become harder to access. They discuss whether Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation, a new presidential council and efforts by the Caribbean’s regional bloc CARICOM to mediate among Haiti’s politicians can turn a page on years of tumult. They also assess how a Kenya-led multinational force can help loosen gangs’ grip on the capital and what role diplomacy with gang leaders can play in reducing violence.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Haiti’s Gangs: Can a Foreign Mission Break Their Stranglehold? and our Haiti country page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Azmi Keshawi, Robert Blecher and Mairav Zonszein to discuss Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, Israeli politics around the war, stalled ceasefire talks and how much Washington’s stance is changing. Richard first talks to Azmi in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah about deteriorating living conditions in the strip. He then talks with Mairav and Robert about the main obstacles to ceasefire talks and the difficulties in getting aid into the strip and distributing it. They assess how much Israel's military operation is succeeding in degrading Hamas's military infrastructure. They also talk about splits in the Israeli war cabinet and how much pressure Washington is prepared to exert to get more aid in.

For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, check out our Israel/Palestine page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Sahel director, Jean-Hervé Jezequel, to discuss the decision of military leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to withdraw from the regional bloc ECOWAS, their campaigns against jihadist insurgencies, backed by Russian mercenaries and what might lie ahead for the region. They unpack the strained relationship between the three countries and West African and Western capitals and their seemingly closer relations to Moscow. They look at how military leaders’ rhetoric emphasising their sovereignty has won support among parts of the population but also its limits in terms of enabling them to deliver the basic services that citizens need. They discuss whether the Sahel’s new authorities might at some point talk to jihadist militants. They also assess the risks of further coups in the region.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest report “Northern Mali: Return to Dialogue” and our Sahel country page.

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 In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Great Lakes director, Richard Moncrieff, to discuss the spike in violence in eastern Congo’s North Kivu province, where clashes between M23 rebels and government forces have intensified. They talk about the fight for Sake, a town just west of provincial capital Goma, the risk of the M23 marching on Goma and the worsening humanitarian crisis. They look at what’s behind Kinshasa’s pivot to southern Africa for support, escalating friction between the DR Congo and Rwanda over Kigali’s alleged support for the M23 and increasing polarisation in the region over the war. They look at the prospects of talks with the M23, a regional track involving Rwanda and other neighbours of the DR Congo and the role of Western governments that traditionally have close ties to Rwanda. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our DRC country page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Iraq Analyst, Lahib Higel, to discuss the latest escalation between Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq and Syria and U.S. forces stationed in the region. They talk about the 29 January drone strike that killed three U.S. soldiers in a military base in Jordan and the U.S. retaliation against Iran-backed groups in Iraq, including a strike in Baghdad on 7 February that killed a senior commander from Kata’ib Hizbollah, which orchestrated the Jordan attack. They unpack the history of Kata’ib Hizbollah and other members of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, their relations with other Iraqi Shia paramilitaries, including those in the Hashd al Shaabi, or popular mobilisation forces, and Islamic Resistance strikes on U.S. forces since Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent assault on Gaza. They talk about how much control Tehran has over the Iraqi groups. They also discuss what the escalation means for the role and presence of U.S. forces in Iraq. 

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Iraq country page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Director Murithi Mutiga to discuss Horn of Africa politics, including Ethiopia's push for sea access, Sudan’s war, Kenya’s regional role and Gulf rivalries playing out in the region. They talk about a recently announced deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the breakaway northern region of Somalia, that would see Ethiopia lease part of the Somaliland coast reportedly in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s statehood. They discuss the reaction in Somalia, which rejects Somaliland independence, and whether anti-Ethiopian sentiment could strengthen Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab. They also talk about growing hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They discuss increasing foreign involvement in Sudan’s war and the former paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ advances. They touch on the regional role that Kenyan President William Ruto appears to aspire to and the evolving influence of Western powers, especially the U.S., in the Horn.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Horn of Africa regional page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker to talk about recent developments in Ukraine and where things might be headed after almost two years of war. They discuss why Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed to break through Russian defences, whether a war of attrition now plays to Russia’s benefit and how it might shape Ukrainian and Russian politics. They also discuss signs that Ukraine’s Western backers could be wavering in their support, which has been critical to war efforts, and what a Trump presidency might mean for Kyiv. They also look at prospects for diplomacy in the year ahead. 

For more on the situation in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page.

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