Hold Your Fire!

By International Crisis GroupNews News Commentary

Hold Your Fire! episodes

January 14, 2021 Social Media and the U.S. Capitol Events
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and Naz Modirzadeh host Sheera Frenkel, New York Times cybersecurity reporter and author of An Ugly Truth: Inside Facebook's Battle for Domination, to discuss the role that social media platforms played in the mob assault on the U.S. Capitol and the response, or lack thereof, to online disinformation by Big Tech companies. They also talk to Peter Salisbury, Crisis Group’s Yemen Senior Analyst, who warns of dire consequences for Yemen if the U.S. does not quickly overturn its recent designation of the Huthis as a terrorist group.
Background readings:
Sheera Frenkel: An Ugly Truth: Inside Facebook's Battle for Domination
Crisis Group: The U.S. Should Reverse Its Huthi Terror Designation
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
43 min
January 07, 202110 Conflicts to Watch in 2021
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and Naz Modirzadeh host Crisis Group’s Chief of Policy Richard Atwood in a special episode on Crisis Group’s flagship publication “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2021”, discussing the hot-spots we chose to feature, the opportunities for conflict resolution and the legacy of Donald Trump’s foreign’s policy, as well as debating the conventional wisdom that there is no military solution to political conflict.
Background readings:
10 Conflicts to Watch in 2021.

How to Hide an Empire. A History of the Greater United States by Daniel Immerwahr.

The Man Who Ran Washington. The Life and Times of James A. Baker III by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
40 min
December 17, 2020 Trump’s Morocco-Israel Transaction
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood unpack the normalization of relations between Israel and Morocco with Century Foundation Fellow Dahlia Scheindlin and talk with Crisis Group’s North Africa Project Director Riccardo Fabiani about how U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara could affect the conflict over this territory. They also address the elections in Venezuela and what the rollout of the first COVID-19 vaccine could mean for conflict prevention as well as Richard’s 100-year-old grandmother.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
43 min
December 10, 2020 Michael Kovrig: Two Years in Arbitrary Detention in China
This week marks two years of detention in China for our colleague Michael Kovrig, for no reason other than being a Canadian in the wrong place at the wrong time. Rob Malley and guest host Brittany Brown dedicate this episode of Hold Your Fire! to Michael’s case and talk with his wife Vina Nadjibulla about Michael’s resilience in prison, the conditions there, the letters they have exchanged, the geopolitical intricacies of his case and her relentless fight at the highest levels of government to get him out and safely home.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
34 min
December 03, 2020 Regime Change Re-examined
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood take on the U.S. “forever wars” with Phil Gordon, a former adviser to President Barack Obama and author of the acclaimed book Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East (St. Martin's Press, October 2020). Rob also addresses one of the most pressing foreign policy decisions the incoming Biden administration will face: should the U.S. simply go back to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or should it aim for a more ambitious agreement with Tehran?
Background reading:
Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East, Philip H. Gordon. St. Martin's Press.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
50 min
November 26, 2020 Afghanistan's Peace Process
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood unpack the state of talks among the U.S., and Afghan governments and the Taliban about a peace deal, along with Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director Laurel Miller, who served as acting U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. They also address the expulsion of Crisis Group Senior Analyst Will Davison from Ethiopia and reflect on how the organization does its work in wartime.
Background readings by Crisis Group:
Afghanistan's Peace Process Will Be Long, Incremental, and in Need of a Mediator
Ethiopia Expels Crisis Group Senior Analyst
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
42 min
November 19, 2020 Ethnicity and Conflict in Myanmar
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood talk about the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh with Crisis Group Europe Program Director Olya Oliker. Then they speak with Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey about Myanmar’s identity crisis as it emerges from the second democratic elections in its history.
Background readings by Crisis Group:
Another Landslide Victory for Aung San Suu Kyi’s Party in Myanmar – But at What Cost? - November 2020 Q&A
Identity Crisis: Ethnicity and Conflict in Myanmar - August 2020 report
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
43 min
November 13, 2020 “First, Do No Harm”: A New U.S. Foreign Policy under Biden?
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Brittany Brown compare their own experience with presidential transitions to the Trump administration’s refusal thus far to pave the way for Joe Biden’s arrival at the White House. They then explore what a Biden foreign policy could look like with Matt Duss, foreign policy adviser for Senator Bernie Sanders, evoking the motto: “First, do no harm”.
Background readings by Crisis Group:
Staving off Violence around Somalia’s Elections - 2020 Briefing
Ethiopia: Not too Late to Stop Tigray Conflict from Unravelling Country - 2020 Op-Ed
Algérie: un air de déjà vu? - 2020 Q&A
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
46 min
November 05, 2020 Protests against Police Brutality Shake Nigeria
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood try to make sense of a very convoluted electoral map, with no clear winner, the day after the U.S. election. They then turn to the protests against police brutality that have shaken Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, with Crisis Group Senior Adviser Nnamdi Obasi and Africa Program Director Comfort Ero. Lastly, they offer an update on the sadly predictable military escalation in Ethiopia.
Background readings by Crisis Group:

Nigeria’s #EndSARS Protest: De-escalate Tensions, Start Deep Police Reform
The Islamic State Franchises in Africa: Lessons from Lake Chad
Facing the Challenge of the Islamic State in West Africa Province
Violence in Nigeria’s North West: Rolling Back the Mayhem
Video: The Fate of Women Who Lived With Boko Haram
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
41 min
October 29, 2020 Can the U.S. Avoid an Election Crisis?
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Steve Pomper talk about a bizarre Oval Office meeting that enraged Ethiopia and a must-watch documentary about social media. Then they take a deep dive into the risks of election-related violence in the United States with Carnegie Senior Fellow Rachel Kleinfeld. She unpacks the combination of risks that place the 2020 presidential contest in a category apart from any other in memory.
Background readings by Crisis Group:
The U.S. Presidential Election: Managing the Risks of Violence
Too Much to Lose: Steering the U.S. Away from Election-Related Violence
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
40 min

About Hold Your Fire!

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Join Crisis Group's Executive Vice President Richard Atwood as he dives deep into the conflicts that rage around the globe with Crisis Group analysts and special guests. These experts bring a unique,…