Hotspotting

Markets across Regional Queensland are operating at a high level, although some of the former stars like the Sunshine Coast are fading. Our latest quarterly survey has classified 177 locations as rising or consistency markets, which maintains the high levels we have recorded over the past 18 months. This means that, despite less vibrancy in major markets like the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast, Regional Queensland continues to present numerous strong property markets with high levels of sales activity. And our price analysis shows there continues to be exceptional value growth in many areas. Find out more in our latest Top 5 QLD Regional Hotspots report. 

Many economists and media commentators are desperate to be the first to call the end of the boom and to predict that property prices will crash.

That’s why we’ve had widespread claims that the property boom is over, at different times, since the beginning of the last year – only to be proven wrong in each case by the publication of subsequent data.

As soon as there is any uncertainty or disruption in the Australian economy or the world, the doomsday forecasters come out of the woodwork telling us that it’s a prelude to property prices collapsing.

Right now, we have a cacophony of the usual suspects telling us prices will dive because there’s economic disruption from events both here and globally.

This sort of knee-jerk analysis is not based on any expertise, or research analysis, or even a simple examination of what has happened in the past during times of economic disruption.

So those doomsday forecasters will be, yet again, proven wrong.

A recurring theme in many markets around the nation is that the local growth leaders are the more affordable locations.

Our new Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index shows that Sydney overall is down, but many of its cheaper areas still have good demand.

Perth is buoyant, led by the affordable precincts.

It’s a similar story in Brisbane and Adelaide, with very strong buyer demand in the more affordable areas in particular.

And in Melbourne, where the millionaire precincts have shown evidence of decline, the most affordable LGAs still have lots of growth markets.

Find out more in the new Winter edition of the Price Predictor Index.

We’ve just published the new Winter edition of The Price Predictor Index and it shows that Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia are the key places where real estate consumers should be focusing their attention.

While this Winter 2022 survey of sales activity across Australia shows a marked decline in the Sydney market, we have identified Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide as the capital cities where sales activity remains strong and prices are tipped to keep rising.

The regional areas outside those three cities are also over-achievers.

Find out more nad get a copy of the report....

https://www.hotspotting.com.au/product/price-predictor-index/

If you’re someone who wants to understand what’s really going on in real estate markets around Australia, here’s the key thing you have to do:

When data on the property market is published, get a copy of the actual report.

Don’t read what the media says is in the report. Get a copy of the report itself.

In most cases, the reports – from research entities like Domain, SQM Research and CoreLogic - are free and easily accessible.

And when you look at the data in many of the reports on prices, you will notice the stark differences between what the reports say, and what the media claims the reports say.

The sad reality is that the key messages on property market data are being distorted in two main ways.

Despite daily media articles declaring that property prices are set to fall 15% or 20% or more, most Australians don’t believe it.

That’s according to the latest Finder Consumer Sentiment Tracker.

The Finder survey sought people’s views of what they expect to happen with house prices in the next 12 months - and very few, it seems, are expecting prices to fall.

Even in Sydney and Melbourne, where economists and commentators have declared prices to be falling already, only about 20% of consumers believe prices in their local area will fall in the next 12 months.

It seems to me that Australians are a lot smarter than the media thinks.

They know there’s a significant difference between what the data shows and what the media says it shows.

An easy way to see where future property price growth is going to occur – or not occur - is to look at transaction numbers.

When sales numbers lift, it means competition for properties is increasing, and what generally flows from that is price growth.

Sales activity numbers are a great forward indicator of what will happen with prices and is actually a much better barometer of what is about to happen in the market than looking at median house price data.

The figures on changes in median prices published by various research companies lag the market – they tell us what has happened, allegedly, in the recent past – but sales volumes provide clues about what will happen to prices in the near future.

One of the skills Australian politicians have mastered over the years is finding ways to raise ever more revenue from the housing industry,  but pretending that any new measures they’re introducing are actually motivated by a desire to fix housing affordability or a housing shortage.

The latest shameless exercise by a government entity to do this has come from the Brisbane City Council, which rules over a large chunk of the Brisbane metropolitan area.

The Brisbane council, headed by Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner, wants to raise some extra revenue from every politician’s favourite cash cow, the housing market.

And they want to dress it up as a measure to fix the housing shortage – because, Brisbane, like everywhere else in Australia, has a chronic shortage of residential rental properties.

Now the key to getting away from a cynical cash grab from the housing market is to not only pretend that you’re fixing a serious problem, like the housing shortage, but also to scapegoat an unpopular minority for the problem.

In Australian politics, when it comes to housing issues, the scapegoat of choice is always property investors.

So Brisbane City Council has decided to blame the rental shortage on property owners who have put their properties into the short-term rental pool, rather than the permanent rental pool.

Well, they certainly got that wrong.

The trend of people leaving the big cities and moving to the regions, or the smaller cities, has been under way for a long time.

This trend is not about the pandemic – it’s about technology allowing people to work remotely and it’s about accessing a better lifestyle at an affordable price.

It’s a long-term trend and it’s here to stay.

https://www.hotspotting.com.au/product/exodus-national-top-10/

With so many organisations analysing the property market, it can be hard to determine just who has the right reading on what is happening with prices across Australia.

And there is the distinct possibility that none of them is correct.

I recently did an online search for the median house price for a particular suburb and came up with six different figures from six different data sources.

The difference between the highest and lowest figures was more than $100,000 – the lowest was $628,000 and the highest was $737,000.

You can search any suburb or town in the nation and you will find similar results – huge differences in the numbers which purport to describe the median house price in any of those locations.

You will find a source that says prices are rising in a particular location and some which say prices are falling there.

It’s no wonder people are confused about what is happening.