Brisbane In Strongest Position In 5 Years To Deliver Price Growth

The Brisbane market has shrugged off the impacts of the pandemic and is in its strongest position to generate price growth for five years. This is starting to translate increasingly into evidence of uplift in property values.

Our analysis of sales activity across the Brisbane metropolitan area has identified 56 suburbs with rising momentum, the highest number since late in 2015 and double the number identified in our quarterly survey six months ago.

The numbers show an all-round improvement in the Brisbane market, with a sharp reduction in the number of declining suburbs and a reduction also in the number of danger markets.

Brisbane’s affordability relative to the biggest cities is helping to boost its market, with more people relocating to South-East Queensland from Sydney and other parts of Australia. Brisbane is a natural beneficiary of the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend and is also benefiting from strong consumer confidence as a result of the success in controlling Covid-19.

In the six years we have been conducting our quarterly surveys of sales activity and prices, it has been common for northern Brisbane to dominate the positive results – and that is certainly the case in this Summer 2020 survey. Of the 56 suburbs with rising sales activity, 12 are in the Brisbane-north precinct of the Brisbane City Council area and 13 are in the neighbouring Moreton Bay Region.

While the most prolific markets are in the north, there also has been a notable revival in Logan City in the south. The municipality is the urban bridge between Brisbane City and the Gold Coast and traditionally attracts buyers seeking cheap real estate and good infrastructure.

There are growth markets in other parts of the Greater Brisbane area as well – Brisbane-inner (4), Brisbane-east (5), Brisbane-south (3) Brisbane-west (3) and Redland City (5) all have some suburbs with rising sales activity.

Our analysis of price trends across the Brisbane metropolitan area shows that most suburbs have recorded house price growth in the last 12 months, but an even higher percentage have had growth in the most recent quarter.

This again shows that the city has done well through the pandemic period.

Our latest Top 5 Brisbane Hotspots include the areas that we have identified as those with the best prospects for returns and future capital growth. These recommendations are based on exhaustive analysis of the data and Terry Ryder’s 35+ years of experience as a property analyst.

Discover Terry’s recommendations in the Top 5 Brisbane Hotspots.

In this short video, Terry discusses the possibilities of buying an investment property in our own neighbourhoods with Tom Wood from SC Lawyers and Danny Buxton from Triple Zero Property.

In this short episode, Terry discusses some of the common mistakes made when buying an investment property with Tom Wood from SC Lawyers and Danny Buxton from Triple Zero Property.

A real estate boom is under way across Regional Australia, although it's been largely overlooked by mainstream media.

Regional cities and towns have been outperforming capital cities on price growth, as well as vacancy rates and rental uplift, for several years.

The trend has been turbocharged by the pandemic, with regional economies relatively untouched by the virus and property markets boosted by city residents relocating to affordable lifestyle areas.

To discuss why the regions are delivering stronger markets than the big cities, and which areas are poised for big growth, watch Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder and property investment expert Tim Graham of Reventon in this free webinar, where they will explain why the best regional areas present a win-win-win scenario for investors:

- lower price points,

- higher rental yields and

- better prospects for growth.

The Covid-19 pandemic has provided commercial property investors with the best kind of market research. It has demonstrated what works in times of economic downturn. It has shown investors which types of commercial tenants can do well during the pandemic period and continue to provide investor owners with the key appeal of this type of property – a high level of positive cash-flow.

The past 6-7 months has provided a check-list of the types of tenancies commercial investors should seek – the ones that perform in good times and bad. In this special webinar event Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder was joined by Australia’s leading expert on commercial property for small investors, James Dawson of the Commercial Investing Academy.

James presented a series of case studies to illustrate the type of commercial investments which have not only survived but thrived in the pandemic period.

In this episode,Terry discusses the first thing investors need to do with Tom Wood from SC Lawyers and Danny Buxton from Triple Zero Property.

The latest price data from SQM Research, Domain and from CoreLogic shows a strong performance by house prices right across Australia.

I’m predicting a national property boom in Australia in the near future and the latest figures from these three major sources confirm that the strong up-cycle is already under way in many parts of the nation.

The Domain figures show that every capital city had growth in their median house prices in the September Quarter - except Melbourne where there was no change.

Apartment markets have been less bullish, and some capital cities have dropped (impacted by high CBD vacancy rates in the big cities), but even there the national averages are a 0.1% rise in the September Quarter and a 2.2% rise annually.

The numbers overall are quite remarkable amid a pandemic-induced recession.

In the September Quarter, house prices grew by 2.8% or more in four of the capital cities: Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin and Canberra. 

Hobart rose 6.9% and Darwin by 6.6% - in the September Quarter alone.

Many readers will be scratching their heads. We never hear about these markets, do we?

We hear a lot about Sydney and Melbourne, but when’s the last time you read an article about the strong Adelaide housing market or Canberra property prices.

How many are aware of the strong recovery under way in Darwin and also in Perth.

In annual terms, all capital cities have house prices higher than a year ago.

The national average is a rise of about 5% but individual cities have done much better. Hobart house prices are 16% higher than a year ago and Canberra is up 10%. Sydney, Adelaide and Darwin have all risen 7%.

This reflects what we have observed month-by-month since the start of the pandemic, based on CoreLogic figures.

Sydney and Melbourne have had numerous months in which house prices have dropped but the other capital cities have had growth months most of the time.

Canberra has produced house price growth in each of the past eight months and Adelaide has had growth in seven of the eight months since February.

Perth, Brisbane and Darwin recorded some down months, but bounced back in August, September and October, with Darwin showing particularly strong figures.

Most regional markets have had sustained growth throughout the pandemic period since February, with Regional Tasmania delivering growth in every one of the past eight months, while Regional Queensland and Regional NSW delivered uplift in seven of the eight months.

This strong showing by Regional Australia is seen also in the Domain figures just published. Despite the overall positive performance in the capital cities in the September Quarter, the capitals were out-performed by the regional markets.

Domain reports that many regional markets have seen double-digit increases in their house prices, with some rising as much as 30%.

Regional markets in Victoria, NSW, Tasmania and Queensland all have outstanding growth performances.

Among the best have been the Southern Grampians in Victoria (up 31%), the Byron Bay region in NSW (up 29%), Forbes in NSW (up 22%), the Isaac LGA in Queensland (up 23%) and the Derwent Valley in Tasmania (up 28%).

My own price analysis in recent weeks confirms strong regional uplift, with notable growth in the top end of the Sunshine Coast market, with some suburbs up about 30% in annual terms.

Now this week we had the weekly report on prices from SQM Research.

It shows that all eight capital cities have recorded growth in house prices in the past month and seven of the eight have had annual price growth.

SQM’s Prices Index shows that the national average was a 2.3% rise in the rolling month index (the month to 10 November) and a 5.6% increase in annual terms, with regional areas showing better growth than the capital cities.

The monthly increases by the eight capital cities were headed by a 2.9% rise in Hobart and a 2.2% rise in Sydney. Perth was up 1.7% and Brisbane 1.2% for the month. Melbourne returned to growth with a 0.4% monthly rise.

In annual terms, Hobart leads with a 10% increase in house prices, while Melbourne is up 7% and Sydney 6%.

Now think about it. We’ve all seen the headlines, which were particularly strident in March and April, forecasting a collapse in property prices.

But residential property has not collapsed. It has done rather the opposite. Prices are rising in most locations around Australia.

The national property boom I’m forecasting is already under way in many parts of the nation.

And the infrastructure-led economy recovery planned by federal and state politicians will turbocharge this trend.

Stay tuned.

Federal and state political leaders intend to generate an infrastructure-led economic recovery in Australia.

That will turbocharge a residential property boom which is already building across the nation.

And that is why we have created a new report called “Australia’s Infrastructure-led Property Boom – National Top 10 Hotspots”.

Infrastructure spending is always a key driver of growth in residential property markets and government plans to fast-track shovel-ready projects will enhance the established trend of rising markets in many parts of Australia.

The research conducted daily by the Hotspotting team places considerable emphasis on infrastructure.

The best places to invest have impact from infrastructure in two key ways: excellent existing infrastructure (public transport, schools, medical services, retail outlets, etc) and spending on new infrastructure.

New infrastructure is particularly influential on generating growth in residential property markets.

Our belief is that no other factor impacts property markets as strongly as major new infrastructure spending.

Infrastructure such as new motorways, rail links, hospitals and universities improve the amenity and desirability of the locations directly impacted.

These projects generate major economic activity and employment – and from that flows demand for real estate.

From 2013 to 2017 both Sydney and Melbourne had significant real estate booms, but this was not replicated in other parts of Australia.

During that period, the markets in Perth and Darwin were in reverse, and those in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra were largely stagnating.

The fundamental difference was the infrastructure spend. Both Sydney and Melbourne were spending tens of billions of dollars on new infrastructure. As a consequence, the economies of the two biggest cities were strong, as a time when the other cities were weak or in decline.

We have seen major infrastructure spending transform local economies and their property markets in many significant regional cities across Australia.

Projects totalling more than $20 billion have transformed the Sunshine Coast from a tourist town to an international city and it currently has one of the strongest property markets anywhere in Australia.

Newcastle, Geelong and Wollongong are all regional cities which have transitioned by older-style economies based on manufacturing to prosperous modern economies through spending on new infrastructure and the generation of new employment sectors. Growth property markets have emerged from the transition in these places.

The recent Federal Budget provided evidence that the Australian Government intends the past-pandemic economic recovery to be largely inspired by spending on major projects across the nation.

It’s also clear that State Governments are ramping up their spending on roads, rail links and other projects to generate jobs.

So in our new report on “Australia’s Infrastructure-Led Property Boom”, we highlight ten locations which are poised for growth as a result of big spending on new infrastructure.

More potential hotspots will emerge as governments firm up their plans and announce start dates for major developments.

But, for now, these are the locations we think will receive the greatest uplift in the short-to-medium term.

So, get yourself a copy of this new report – and, if you have any questions, email me on [email protected].

Bye for now.

In this webinar Terry Ryder chatted with Scott Northcott of Property Hotspot about their new venture - helping investors buy the best new properties in hot locations around Australia

At long last, we are seeing restrictions eased in Melbourne.

A further easing was announced for 27 October and then more on 8 November.

What we have observed to date suggests that Melbourne real estate markets will emerge strongly from the second lockdown and get back to business, where possible, with some enthusiasm.

The data suggests that, to date, Melbourne markets have shown considerable resilience throughout the tough times of 2020.

A collapse in property values was predicted by some economists and nothing like that has happened.

So, as Melbourne gets back to some kind of normal, where to for the city’s property markets?

To provide some answers to that general question, there’s no one better qualified than award-winning buyers agent and best-selling author Miriam Sandkuhler from Property Mavens.