Although rarely proven to come true, predictions by big banks are not merely speculative, but forecasts backed up by research and data…
But how exactly do bank economists come up with these property forecasts?
Felicity Emmett, Senior Economist at ANZ, joins us today to reveal the process big banks use to create housing market predictions based on the Australian economy… What data and key inputs do bank economists use for forecasting and analysis? 
We also discuss the impact of property market forecasting on consumer confidence, the relationship between inflation and interest rates, and the current housing affordability crisis. 
If you enjoyed the show, do like, rate, subscribe, and share us on social media and if you have your own questions you need clarity on, email us at questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au!
See you in the episode!
 
Episode Highlights:

Why do big banks create property forecasts? [01:39]
Challenges bank economists encounter with forecasting [03:46]
Inputs into the forecasting process for the housing market [07:01]
The impact on house prices on consumer confidence [13:35]
The relationship between inflation and interest rates [19:29]
Consumer confidence in the property market [24:17]
The effect of capacity constraints in the economy [28:24]
Why it’s important to keep inflation down [32:30]
The current housing affordability crisis [34:20]
The effects of regulatory changes [38:42]
Who is the vulnerable sector in a possible recession? [44:00]
Stimulus measures to stabilize prices [48:08]
Why makes forecasting difficult to achieve accuracy? [50:36]

 
About our Guest:
Felicity Emmett is Senior Economist in the Australian Economic team at ANZ. With more than 20 years of experience as an economist in financial markets, Felicity is responsible for analysis and forecasting of key Australian macroeconomic indicators, as well as thematic research on the Australian economy. She also provides specialist analysis on topical issues, including the housing sector and the policy outlook.
 
Connect with Us:

Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://linktr.ee/veronicamorgan
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? www.wealthful.com.au
Work with Chris: hello@wealthful.com.au 
Send in your questions to: questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au 

 
Find this episode on our website:
https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/246
 
If you’ve enjoyed this episode, don’t forget to like, share, rate and subscribe for more! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How Do Bank Economists Make Property Forecasts? | Felicity Emmett, ANZ

Who's really in control when you buy a property?

The Elephant In The Room is where the things that no one wants to talk about, actually get talked about.  

Veronica Morgan, real estate agent, buyers agent and co-host of Foxtel’s Location Location Location Australia & Chris Bates, financial planner, mortgage broker and wealth coach have joined forces to find out what’s really going on in the world of real estate.

Veronica and Chris talk to property owners and buyers every day in their respective lines of business. They’ve observed a wide spectrum of confidence in people’s decision making ability when buying and selling property, often to the detriment of the individuals concerned. They are both fascinated by consumer behaviour and together they’re going to uncover who’s really making the decisions when you buy a property.

In each episode they get into the psyche of buyers, agents, auctioneers and other industry experts to learn the truth about how buyers are influenced and why they do the things they do. In every episode you’ll learn from the mistakes of a “property dumbo” as well as Chris & Veronica’s “elephant rider bootcamp” training session.

The plan? This property podcast has been created to help us all make better property decisions!

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In this month's Suburb Trends report for May 2024, we're diving deep into the world of property investment, exploring a critical issue that every investor should be aware of: false positives in property data.
With the property market experiencing upward pressure on prices due to low supply, investors risk being misled by appearances, just like the allure of a dimly lit nightclub before the lights come on. Without the ability to distinguish between promising investments and pitfalls, investors may find themselves making pretty costly decisions based on misleading data.
To shed light on this topic, Kent Lardner joins us to discuss strategies that will help in discerning between genuine opportunities and false positives. Together, we'll explore strategies for evaluating property data, spotting red flags, and making better investment decisions even in the midst of inflated markets.
This is the beer goggles and property episode! Tune in to learn how to spot false positives in property data.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
00:56 - How the "lights-on" moment aims to reveal hidden truths in property investments
03:49 - How can one mitigate the impact of external factors on property market analysis?
05:33 - What core factors should owner-occupiers prioritise when assessing property options?
09:35 - Is the current trend of investors targeting affordable properties sustainable?
14:18 - How can market players anticipate and respond to potential downturn scenarios?
19:01 - What are the real factors behind the increase in housing costs
21:03 - How are affordability ratios and wealth interconnected in suburban markets?
25:01 - The importance of macro and micro-level data when considering property investments
29:24 - Key factors influencing investment decisions in the real estate market
31:57 - Is there a risk of social unrest due to housing inequality?
37:26 - What are the current rental housing challenges in Melbourne and Sydney?
47:34 - What are the implications of the Docklands case study for urban development?
About Kent Lardner:
Kent Lardner is an expert data science and business leader with 30+ years of experience at leading companies like JLL, CoreLogic, and General Electric. He has led teams of 5 to 200 people across Australia and China, driven by his passion for high-growth digital businesses. Kent is also the founder of Suburbtrends, a leading property research firm trusted by major names in Australian property and featured in mainstream media.
Connect with Kent Lardner:

Kent Lardner’s LinkedIn: https://au.linkedin.com/in/kentlardner
Kent Lardner’s Website: https://suburbtrends.com/

Resources:

Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au
Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au

Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!

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Suburb Trends May 2024: How to Spot False Positives in Property Data

As Australia grapples with the ambitious challenge of constructing 1.2 million new dwellings in the next five years, we aim to answer the pressing question: Is this target attainable?
We talk about the implications of this challenge, including the need to address housing pressure and determine suitable locations for new developments. Moreover, we discuss the potential impacts of immigration policies on housing demand and supply dynamics.
Today's guest is Peter Tulip, Chief Economist at the Centre for Independent Studies whose expertise in housing and monetary policies, coupled with his advocacy for high-density living, underscores his credibility as a leading voice in the field, earning him the distinction of Australia’s oldest YIMBY.
Join us in this episode as we dissect these complex issues and brainstorm innovative solutions. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to be a part of the conversation shaping Australia’s housing future and urban development.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
00:58 - Who is Peter Tulip?
01:31 - What is the goal of the National Cabinet's housing initiative?
07:18 - What are the challenges associated with this housing initiative?
12:41 - Peter's insights on the heritage aspect of rezoning
16:09 - Primary challenges faced by developers in densely populated urban areas
20:24 - How rezoning and redevelopment could potentially affect property values
27:17 - Peter’s thoughts on RBA's current stance on inflation
35:58 - Considerations to take into account in determining sustainable immigration levels
40:53 - Is reducing student immigration an effective strategy to alleviate housing pressure?
42:50 - Are there tax policies that can be leveraged to incentivise increased housing supply?
46:35 - What are the potential impacts of increased housing supply on property values?
50:07 - Is there a need for an upzoning tax to fund public services and infrastructure upgrades?
55:33 - Peter Tulip’s property dumbo
About Our Guest:
Peter Tulip has been Chief Economist at the Centre for Independent Studies since 2020. From 2011 to 2020 he was Senior Research Manager at the Reserve Bank of Australia. Before that he worked at the US Federal Reserve Board, the OECD and the Commonwealth Treasury. His research has been published in numerous international academic journals. His recent work focuses on Australian housing policy.  He has a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania.
Connect with Peter Tulip:

Visit their website: www.cis.org.au/experts/research-scholars/peter-tulip
Follow Peter on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peter_tulip
Send an email to ptulip@cis.org.au

Resources:

Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au
Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au

Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719
Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is Australia’s 1.2M Housing Target Attainable in the Next 5 Years?

With property values stagnant amidst a backdrop of soaring prices in other cities, we explore the factors contributing to Melbourne's unique market behaviour. Could the city's prolonged lockdowns have played a significant role in shaping its property landscape? What does the future hold for buyers and sellers? Meanwhile, rising rents beg the question: how does this affect the apartment market?
Today, Jarrod McCabe from Wakelin Property Advisory joins us to unpack these pressing questions. With more than two decades in the property industry – across valuations and investment advisory – Jarrod's expert analysis and insights aim to offer clarity on Melbourne's current property landscape. What could be the culprit behind Melbourne’s unusual property market behaviour?
Tune in to learn all about Melbourne's property market and discover what's coming up next. This episode gives you helpful info you wouldn't want to miss. So hit that play button and let's dive in!
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
01:04 - Who is Jarrod McCabe?
01:22 - Trends observed in Melbourne's property market since the onset of COVID-19
02:44 - The recent trends in Melbourne's property market according to CoreLogic data
04:27 - How has the return to work influenced residential preferences in Melbourne?
06:14 - The shift in investor behaviour amidst rising rents and the rental crisis
10:57 - How does Melbourne's urban lifestyle impact property demand and rental dynamics?
14:25 - The impact of recent changes in land tax legislation on property investment behaviour
21:38 - Key factors contributing to Melbourne's resilience as a property investment destination
23:37 - What is happening with the population of Melbourne?
28:30 - Factors contributing to the disparity in property values between Melbourne and Sydney
30:44 - Can investors still find property investments in Melbourne with a budget of $1M?
35:22 - How Melbourne's property market responds to changing dynamics in house prices
39:08 - Planning controls evolving in suburban areas surrounding Melbourne's city center
42:45 - Jarrod McCabe’s property dumbo
45:33 - What's the impact of super Saturdays on Melbourne's clearance rate?
About Our Guest:
Jarrod McCabe, a property industry veteran with over two decades of experience, excels in valuations and investment advisory. His expertise in Melbourne's inner suburban market, combined with sharp negotiation skills, ensures successful outcomes for clients. As property team manager, Jarrod prioritizes understanding client needs while mentoring colleagues. Since completing his Bachelor of Business (Property) in 2000, he has risen to the role of Director at Wakelin Property Advisory, also serving as an active property educator through webinars, seminars, and media contributions.
Connect with Jarrod McCabe:

LinkedIn https://linkedin.com/in/jarrod-mccabe-81333034/
Website https://wakelin.com.au/
Podcast https://wakelin.com.au/education/podcasts/

Resources:

Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au
Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au

Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719
Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What’s Behind Melbourne’s Unusual Property Market Behaviour?

Ever wondered why economists seem to favour land tax? What happens if we get rid of stamp duty on houses? And why do some people say negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts are bad? We're here to unpack these questions and more.
Join us in this episode as we explore the often-debated topics of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount with Chief Economist Michael Blythe, whose recent paper, "In Praise of Negative Gearing" has stirred up quite a buzz. We dive into the insights and arguments he presents and uncover the nexus between property taxes and housing market behaviour.
Whether you own a home, rent, or just want to know more, this episode is for you. Hit play and let's get into the nitty-gritty of property taxes and the housing market!
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
01:06 - Who is Michael Blythe?
01:43 - What role does tax play in property market challenges?
03:49 - Historical context: Negative gearing and CGT discounts
10:03 - Did property prices really slow down without negative gearing?
17:06 - How has the ACT's taxation change affected property prices?
25:37 - The pros and cons of an expensive property market from a societal standpoint
29:46 - Is negative gearing detrimental to both home buyers and renters, as some argue?
34:36 - Where does the economy currently stand in terms of inflation control?
37:37 - Is the economy headed for higher prices and a cost-of-living crisis?
40:00 - The limitations of using interest rates as a tool to manage inflation
44:17 - The downsides of downsizing
50:29 - How does the aged care system impact housing availability?
52:04 - The interplay between property investing, negative gearing, and taxpayer costs
57:27 - Michael Blythe’s property dumbo
About Our Guest:
Michael Blythe is a respected Chief Economist and senior executive with extensive experience in economic policy and financial markets. He has worked across both Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of Australia and brings great knowledge of, and insight into, the Australian and global economy, economic policy and markets.
Connect with Michael Blythe:

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-blythe-272a1688/
Website https://www.downsizer.com/

Resources:

Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au
Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au

Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719
Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765
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The Nexus Between Property Taxes and Housing Market Behaviour

What is driving the relentless rise in Australia's property prices, and how are homeowners managing as the fixed mortgage rates from the COVID era expire? These are important questions as we deal with rising inflation and increasing living costs, so in this episode, we tackle these issues to see how they're affecting both the housing market and potential buyers.
Joining us to break down these complex topics is Carlos Cacho, Chief Economist at Jarden Australia. Carlos has a deep understanding of Australian economics, especially banking and housing markets, thanks to his previous roles at UBS Australia and Colonial First State Global Asset Management. He holds a Bachelor of Economics and a First Class Honours in Economics from the University of New South Wales, making him a highly credible voice on these matters.
Make sure to tune into this episode for a thorough analysis of the current economic pressures on Australia's property market and what they could mean for the future. Equip yourself with the insights needed to better understand these challenging economic times.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
01:08 - Who is Carlos Cacho?
01:30 - What led Carlos to oppose the common view on reducing serviceability buffers?
06:20 - Does lowering the serviceability buffer improve affordability or just increase prices?
08:48 - Will increasing urban density in Sydney truly improve housing affordability?
12:40 - What factors contribute to continued property price increases in most cities?
18:35 - Key differences in the apartment and house markets in major cities
20:36 - Do seasonal trends affect real estate listings?
26:43 - Will higher interest rates persist longer than anticipated?
32:05 - Could we see a return to the economic conditions similar to those before 2022?
36:27 - Is climate change becoming a big driver for investment around the world?
38:44 - The impact of high interest rates on economic stability over the next decade
44:15 - What are the anticipated migration trends for the upcoming years?
50:38 - Are we meeting our labor demands through skills migration?
52:05 - Carlos Cacho’s property dumbo
About Our Guest:
Carlos Cacho is Chief Economist and leads Australian bank research at Jarden in Australia. Carlos’ research covers all things Australian Economics and Banks, with the strong focus on the housing market. Prior to joining Jarden, Carlos spent three years as Australian Economist at UBS Australia, and previously five years at Colonial First State Global Asset Management. Carlos holds a Bachelor of Economics, as well as a First Class Honours in Economics from the University of New South Wales. 
Connect with Carlos Cacho:

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/carlosscacho/
Website https://www.jardengroup.com.au/

Resources:

Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au
Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au

Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719
Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How Do Bank Economists Make Property Forecasts? | Felicity Emmett, ANZ

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