HyperChange

Bringing back the podcast with a BANGER episode featuring Sam Korus of ARK Invest and Aaron Burnett of Mach33 research. They have teamed up to release potentially the most thorough and in-depth valuation model of SpaceX ever made public. Breaking down the value of Starlink vs the Launch business and how Mars takes the potential valuation to $10T and beyond. I learned a ton from their open-source model and would highly recommend checking it out.

Sam Korus on X: https://x.com/skorusARK

Aaron Burnett on X: https://x.com/aarontburnett

ARK Invest SpaceX Valuation Model: https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/ark-expected-value-spacex-2030Mach33

SpaceX Valuation Blog: https://research.33fg.com/analysis/spacex-at-escape-velocity-ark-mach33-s-2-5t-2030-valuation-model

0:00 Intro

2:48 Are you invested in SpaceX?

4:50 How is SpaceX worth $2.5T by 2030?

7:00 Starlink Network Capacity & Global Pricing

9:15 SpaceX Revenue Projections (Through 2030)

10:28 Starlink Network Bandwidth

12:19 Fiber vs Starlink

15:15 Too Many Satellites?

17:40 Starlink TAM

20:42 Starshield Potential

21:46 Laser Interconnects

23:58 Starlink Cash Flow $70B by 2030

24:28 Starlink IPO?27:39 Starlink Profits Fund Mars

29:59 What’s the market cap of Mars?

35:11 What’s SpaceX plan for Mars?

40:25 SpaceX Business Moonshots

My X: https://twitter.com/gfilche

HyperChange Patreon :) https://www.patreon.com/hyperchange

Disclaimer: I'm invested in SpaceX. This show is not financial advice.

G 2 a Milly update! The show where I open-source building my investment portfolio. In today's update, I discuss cashing out of Airbnb and Coinbase stock to move into Bitcoin. I've been slowly nibbling on Tesla shares but am hesitant to go all-in (despite amazing potential) because of the volatility around the Robotaxi ramp. Bitcoin feels like a safe/almost cash like place to keep my capital for now. If you have any ideas for new companies to buy or questions/ideas for me to discuss on the show let me know in the comments below!!0:00 Performance/Stats2:55 Why I Bought Bitcoin5:19 Why I Sold Coinbase 6:08 Why I Sold Airbnb7:52 Critical Moment for Tesla9:36 Tesla Robotaxi Business Potential12:19 Tesla & Bitcoin just getting started My X:   / gfilche  HyperChange Patreon :)   / hyperchange   Disclaimer: This show is not financial advice. I'm not a financial advisor. I may update the portfolio at anytime without warning.

Tesla's Q2 2025 Delivery & Production report is hot off the press! Just released this morning, Tesla announced 384,000 deliveries for the quarter and production of 410,000. This was better than the 365,000 in prediction markets, and the stock is rallying ~4% on the news. I thought the numbers we're ok, it was nice to see a rebound from Q1, but the year over year declines from Q2 last year and Q2 23 were real. My theory is as Robotaxi ramps up it will begin to organically drive demand for Tesla vehicles.

Sam Korus from ARK Invest joins the show to give his initial take on Tesla's Robotaxi launch in Austin, and the expectations for a broader rollout. We were recording a SpaceX episode (will be released soon)m but I couldn't resist asking him about Tesla's Robotaxi launch. This was our quick discussion about how the first Robotaxi rides have gone so far, and the JUST announced first autonomous Tesla delivery to a customer somewhere in Texas. Exciting times! Shoutout to Sam, hope to get him on a full podcast soon!!Sam Korus on X: https://x.com/skorusARKMy X:   / gfilche  HyperChange Patreon :)   / hyperchange   Disclaimer: I'm invested in Tesla, nothing in this show is financial advice.

We're just a couple weeks away from Tesla's Q2 delivery report. Prediction market Kalshi is estimating deliveries of 358,000 for the quarter (would represent a 19% decline from 444,000 in Q2 last year). But the truth is ... no one seems to care about Tesla's deliveries. All eyes are on the Robotaxi launch coming late in June (tentatively). The new metric to focus on will be Robotaxi Rides not Cars Delivered. We are entering a new era for Tesla!

Everyone's hyped on OpenAI, ChatGPT, Grok, XAI, etc ... but the company powering them all is making all the guap. Nvidia has printed over $100B in AI profits in the last 6 quarters alone and is showing now signs of stopping. Top-line growth was 69% last quarter. Despite this rapid growth and dominance in AI, Nvidia trades for 43X trailing earnings, and maybe around 30X forward earnings (depending on growth). This is nowhere near bubble territory. With Owner/Operator/Founder Jensen Huang continuing to innovate at a breakneck pace, why is the market skeptical this growth will continue? Isn't the AI revolution just getting started? Maybe it's because Nvidia relies on TSMC to make their chips and Grok/ChatGPT to build the UI for consumers ... let me know your thoughts on Nvidia stock in the comments below.

WOW. The Big Beautiful Bill has opened up an incredible rift between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. In just the past few hours things have escalated to an insane level. The bromance is over, and they appear to be in all out war/enemies. This is a time of peak uncertainty for Tesla shareholders, SpaceX government programs .. and frankly, American politics as a whole. Elon is accusing Trump of hiding the Epstien files because he's in them, and so much more drama. The situation appears to be heating up by the second.The root of the issues stem from Elon Musk's concern America is going bankrupt and the new bill Republicans are passing that will balloon spending. This is going directly against all his work for DOGE and what Donald Trump was elected to do. So now the beef is on. I'm very curious what will happen next & wishing the best for Tesla, SpaceX, Elon and America.

We are less than two weeks away June, when Tesla will be launching its Robotaxi network in Austin, Texas! This marks an exciting new chapter for the company as they begin to rollout an autonomous vehicle service. Elon Musk just went on TV today saying he expects there to be 1,000 Tesla robotaxis within just a few months of launch. This could quickly accelerate Tesla's revenue growth. In addition, Optimus continues to make rapid progress. The potential for Cybercab's to deliver packages with Optimus is very exciting and may be here sooner than we think. I'm getting more excited about Tesla, and FOMO is ramping for not having enough shares as they company enters this exciting new growth phase. Ron Baron said they are on the verge of big profits!! We'll see ...

I sit down with Public Co-Founder/CEO Jannick Malling to discuss the company's breakout 2024, competing with Robinhood, surviving the market/startup crash of 2021/2022, crypto, a new bond offering & so much more! I've been working with Public for years and it's been impressive to see them hit 1M users and continue to double revenue every year (even through the market downturn). I'm excited to see what features they launch next. Testing out alpha has been a lot of fun.Sign up for a new Public account & get $25 for free using my link: https://public.com/hyperchange0:00

0:00 Public’s Breakout 20243:00 History of Public App3:54 The Great Wealth Transfer5:35 Bonds & Interest Rates7:40 $100T in Baby Boomers Portfolios10:12 Disrupting Vanguard & Fidelity, etc12:12 How do you compete with Robinhood?15:12 Alpha: Public’s AI for Investing (like ChatGPT)23:30 What’s The Next Market Trend29:34 Bond/Treasury Ladders31:01 Public’s Next Big FeaturesMy X:   / gfilche  HyperChange Patreon :)   / hyperchange   Disclaimer: I'm an investor in Public personally and through my VC Firm HyperGuap. Nothing in this show is financial advice.

Markets were down huge today on fears of a trade war and recession. Tesla stock traded down 15% to ~$221 per share, it's lowest point of the year. Drama around Elon Musk continues to heat up (per usual), and investors are worried it could impact near term sales. I wanted to share my thoughts as a long term investor holding through turbulent times. Let me know what you think in the comments below!!