HyperChange

HyperChange

By GaliTechnology
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HyperChange episodes

  • How Low (or high) Can Tesla Stock Go?? 🍻

    Tesla stock's volatility has been heating up. After a massive run post-election, shares are settling back down as markets correct, and Elon Musk protests erupt at Tesla stores (and even SpaceX) across the US. The question on everyones mind is how this sentiment will affect vehicle sales, especially in the US and Europe. This comes at fascinating time for Tesla, with the Robotaxi launch in Austin just months away, and Optimus making more progress than ever. Will excitement about these new products be able to hold the stock up through a period of depressed earnings and cashflow (if that were to happen) and the robotaxi ramp? What are your thoughts??

    24 min
  • Tesla Optimus is Coming. Is Figure's Robot fake or legit?? 🍻

    At Tesla's AI day a few years ago Elon Musk unveiled Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot program. This has quickly become an even more exciting long-term bull thesis than even the Cyercab, as Elon says it will make Tesla the world's most valuable company by far. In this Bros, Brews and Big Ideas I sit down with Aidan to analyze Tesla's Optimus, and the much hyped Figure Robot, which has created a splash on social media and is let by Bret Adcock. Figure claims to be bringing robots into the home later this year or next, while Tesla plans to have 1,000+ robots walking around its factory this year. Who is ahead in this race? Is Figure to be taken seriously at all? Let me know what you think in the comments below.

    29 min
  • Tesla Cybercab Will Crush Waymo 🍻

    Bros, Brews & Big Ideas. Schemin live from Austin, Texas, we break down the future of the self-driving car economy. How Tesla's Cybercab launch in June of this year could quickly scale into millions of rides and become a bigger network than Waymo. Tesla's vertically integrated approach could end up being a major pricing advantage over Waymo who is buying 3rd party cars, using Uber's network, etc ... What are your thoughts on the future of the self-driving revolution? When will Tesla surpass Waymo in terms of Autonomous rides, if ever? Let us know your prediction in the comments below.

    29 min
  • Had to Sell 10% of My Tesla Stock 😢

    A very bittersweet moment. With 90% of my personal capital invested in Tesla & SpaceX (Elon Musk companies), and needing cash to pay rent/my bills in the next 6 months I made the extremely difficult decision to sell a chunk (about 10%) of my Tesla holdings. This comes at a time where I'm more bullish on the companies long term future than ever with Cybercab and Optimus. But with the reality of the world's geopolitical situation and Elon's government involvement ... I realized I would feel a lot better to sell some stock now to have cash rather than be forced to sell in 6 months at a potentially lower price. As always this is not financial advice, just me documenting my investing journey. My support for Tesla, it's employees, and mission is stronger than ever, but personal financial freedom and living stress free is the most important thing in life. Don't really know what to say, because it bums me out so much to make this video, but had to keep it real with y'all.

    7 min
  • Will Elon Musk Haters Impact Tesla Stock?

    After a two weeks off-grid I was rattled to see news across social media of Tesla protests and general Elon Musk haters. Beyond processing being sad at all the negative energy in the world, I thought it was an important time to think rationally about the impact that Elon's foray into politics will have on Tesla's sales (especially in USA and Europe) in the short term. Overall, I think we may be in for a period of volatility for the next 6 months to a year, especially as DOGE makes dramatic cuts to government spending. But, looming positively on the horizon is the Cybercab / Robotaxi network ... just 5 months away from being a reality, and one of the most consequential events in Tesla History. With Optimus trailing shortly behind. What are your thoughts on Tesla stock, and the impact of Elon Musk haters?

    10 min
  • Massive DOGE Contract For Palantir?

    Palantir stock has soared to over $100 per share, representing a $250B+ valuation. Is Palantir stock a bubble? Or is it the next great AI Company? Well now, rumors are swirling that a contract with DOGE could be brewing and be driving the stock's metoric rise. Also there is an interesting connection between JD Vance, Peter Thiel and Alex Karp that is adding fuel to the speculation. What are your thoughts? Will Palantir have a big role in the new US DOGE government??

    5 min
  • Is Palantir Stock a Bubble??

    Palantir stock exploded to $103/share on the back of its Q4 2024 earnings report and guidance. This represents a $258B valuation and a whopping 90X price/revenue. Strong AI numbers have accelerated topline growth to 36% in 2024, but guidance implied growth slowing to 31% in 2025. What are your thoughts? Can Alex Karp take Palantir all the way? Is it crazy overvalued?? Has Palantirs hype as an AI stock gone too far??

    Palantir Q4 earnings report: https://investors.palantir.com/news-d...
    My X:   / gfilche  
    HyperChange Patreon :)   / hyperchange  
    Disclaimer: I'm not long Palantir and this show is not financial advice.

    15 min
  • I've Never Heard Elon Musk so Bullish on Tesla 🤩⚡

    It was a legendary Tesla conference call!! Elon Musk sounded insanely focused and dialed in as he explained Tesla is planning to launch an self-driving robotaxi service in Austin in June of THIS YEAR. He also clarified he expects Tesla to launch full self driving in many regions across the US in 2025. Additionally, with Optimus and Cybercab Elon retierates he believes not only that Tesla will be the world's most valuable company ... but more valuable than the world's next 5 largest companies combined. Wow. As crazy as it sounds, it just might be true! What are your thoughts on the call? I left feeling very very bullish, feeling the confidence from Elon and the team.

    0:00 Intro
    0:44 Elon Opening Remarks
    13:29 SAY Retail Questions
    22:37 Analyst Questions
    25:04 Gali Final Thoughts/Rant
    My X:   / gfilche  
    HyperChange Patreon :)   / hyperchange  
    Disclaimer: I'm long Tesla stock and nothing in this show is financial advice.
    Here are my notes from the conference call (note, may not be accurate!!):
    Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings Call Notes
    INTRO- ELON OPENING REMARKS
    -Q4 set record, delivered cars at rate of almost 2M cars/year
    -Model Y best-selling vehicle of any kind on earth
    (elon focused and talking quickly)
    -10Xing on autonomy, not doubling
    -many investments made this year that will bear immense fruit in the future, for AI
    -see a path for Tesla to the worlds most valuable company by far, worth more than the next 5 companies combined, difficult but achievable path
    -overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous robots
    -setting up for an epic 2026, and ridiculously good 2027 and 2028
    -meeting FSD now is like meeting a toddler
    -human intuition is linear, we’re seeing exponential progress
    -#1 recommendation is try it
    -typical passenger car has 10 hours of use out of 168, when its autonomous, itll be used for 55 hours a week … can deliver packages in the middle of thenight, or supply restaurants, all hours of the day or night. 5X increase in utility
    -more on self driving, continued improvements in safety numbers, much safer to use FSD
    -V14 will be another big step from V13
    -launched CORTEX training cluster at Giga Austin, big step for FSD, continue to invest in training needs
    -Optimus training needs are about 10X what’s needed for the car
    -cost of training is dropping dramatically over time
    -Optimus has potential to be north of $10T in revenue, can put a lot training compute into that situation, even pumping $500B into it would be a good deal
    -future very different from the past, incredible inflection point in human history
    -proof is in the pudding
    -launching in June this year in Austin, already have cars moving autonomously in Fremont, thousands of cars per day driving, soon in Austin then elsewhere in the world
    -toe in the water at first to make sure everything is cool, but we have a general solution for autonomy , then put a few more toes, then a foot. Safety of the general public and those in the car as the top priority
    -with regard to Optimus, making insane revenue projections that sound insane, i realize that. But i think they will prove to be accurate
    -several thousand bots made this year, they will be doing useful things by the end of this year, im confidence, production design one at the tesla factories, then will learn for production design two
    -ramp optimus production faster than anything has ever launched, doesn’t take very many years before we’er making 100M of these things per year , 500% growth per year
    -tried using all these suppliers to get it to build Optimus, but nothing worked, had to build it internally from first principles, the hand is increibdle
    -long term Optimus will be the value of the company
    -back to Energy,/earth,
    -energy storage is a big deal, becoming more important, enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible.
    -grid has no storage, designed for peak storage, lots of waste
    -once you have grid energy storage, the potential of the grid is unlocked, at least double
    -this will drive demand of battery packs as to as much as we can possibly make
    -shanghai factory starting operation, starting another factory
    -cant shoot our selves in the foot, battery capacity can only go into storage or mobility, so always making that tradeoff
    -demand for total Gigawatt hours for batteries, transportation or stationary will grow in a very big way over time
    2025 a pivotal year for tesla, launch of full self driving, biggest year in tesla history, maybe even bigger than first car or model s, 3 or y … probably most important year in tesla’s history
    I don’t even know who is in 2nd place in real world AI, would need a telescope to see them
    for rest of notes see pinned comment below!!!

    34 min
  • Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings/Stock Analysis 📊⚡

    Tesla has released Q4 2024 earnings!! The financial results were a little disappointing, but the guidance of "volume production" for Cybercab in 2026 has investors excited, with shares jumping back above $400 after hours.

    The update is full of new financials, guidance about the updated Model Y, Tesla Semi, energy storage business, Cybercab rollout, Optimus progress and so much more! Let me know what you think of the results in the comments below!!
    Tesla shareholder letter: https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla...
    Tesla financials on Main Street Data: https://mainstreetdata.com/TSLA
    My X:   / gfilche  
    HyperChange Patreon :)   / hyperchange  
    Disclaimer: I'm long Tesla stock and this show is not financial advice.

    19 min
  • Is Tesla Stock Fairly Valued?

    Tesla stock closed the day at $428 per share, representing a valuation of $1.5T. Reflecting on this milestone, I wanted to analyze what Tesla's financials were and what would be needed to justify a valuation of this level, and beyond. My high level theory is, Tesla is in a very unique spot. The core business is likely to generate $9B in GAAP operating income for the full year of 2024. Based on today's closing price, that is a valuation of 167X price/earnings. A little steep.

    Buying at today's $1.5T price implies an expected valuation of $3-5T in the future (a potential double or triple on your money). To justify this, Tesla will need about $100B in earnings. So that is my questions? When does Tesla hit this number? How fast do Cybercab & Optimus contribute to the company's earnings and cashflow? Will the market continue keeping an Elon Musk premium on the stock forever, or could it decrease? Let me know what you think in the comments below!

    18 min

About HyperChange

From the publisher's feed

new wave financial media by Galileo Russell. schemin on stocks, technology, finance, startups & sometimes other random stuff :)

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